壹 奥密克戎扰动市场

     新的新冠病毒变种奥密克戎上周五和周末吸引了市场的焦点。上周五，美股和欧股大跌。美股因感恩节交投清淡，市场波动加大。石油价格下跌超过10%，创下20个月以来最大单日跌幅。周日开盘的中东股市也随之大跌。而避险资产相对表现较好，如黄金保持价格平稳。根据中国知名防疫专家，这种新毒株是否会使当前的防疫屏障完全失效需要根据未来两周更多的数据和实验室数据才能精准判断。

     贰 对经济冲击应有限

     处在一个黑盒子里，基金经理们纷纷先卖出再问问题。我们认为市场反应的是最悲观的情景。经过近两年的时间，各国在应对疫情方面已经积累了很多经验，而且疫苗也发挥了很大作用。我们非医学专家，因此对疫情走势的判断还需听专业人士的看法。但是，从经济的角度看，即使当前重回2020年3月全球闭关锁国，对经济的冲击也要小于当时。因为经过疫情的不断反复，各国经济都基本调整到了应对疫情的状态。市场对新毒株会不会拖延美联储收回流动性的进程也十分关心。周五，期货市场已经从之前预期2022年三次加息缩减到两次。市场原本还预期在12月议息会议上美联储将宣布加快缩减债券购买进程。但如果新毒株持续带来不确定性，则美联储有可能会再耐心等一等。

     叁 对我国经济和股市影响

     就我国而言，因为我们在防疫上采取的严格清零策略一直都比较有效，预计新毒株和Delta一样对我国经济的冲击总体有限。但是，如果其他国家采取严格的闭关锁国政策，无疑会打击全球经济复苏的进程，进而影响我国外需的增速。A股和港股上周五均下跌，港股恒生指数跌幅较大，为9月20日以来的最大单日跌幅。我们认为外围市场调整对A股和港股的冲击应有限。年初至今，无论A股还是港股都是全球市场的落后者，当前整体的估值水平也较低。从10月份的工业企业利润数据看，我国经济在9月份的基础上有所恢复。但是，因房地产市场的压力，经济下行压力仍存。如果流动性能够改善，成长板块的表现会更好一些。

     肆 A股领涨全球

     A股领涨全球。上周上证指数和深成指是全球16个主要国家和地区指数中唯一取得正收益的两个指数，侧面反应我国的抗疫策略是最优的。俄罗斯、德国和法国领跌全球，印度和恒生指数次之。

I. Omicron

The new variant of COVID-19 Omicron caused global stock and commodity market to crash. Oil sank more than 10% and the Middle East stock index dropped 5% on Sunday. According to experts in epidemic prevention, it takes another two weeks to get the analysis of the new variant and then judge whether it can escape immune system completely.

II.The most pessimistic scenario

As information regarding Omicron is very limited, portfolio managers chose to sell first and then ask questions later. We deem that market is pricing in the most pessimistic scenario.Even if vaccines do not work on the new variant the hit to economy would be less than in March 2020. The reason is that companies have adapted to the pandemic and whatever comes out of this they have a playbook on how to deal with it. Moreover, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve to step in if needed. Market is now pricing in only two interest lifts in 2022 versus three before the news of Omicron. The Federal Reserve had been expected to hasten taper in December FOMC but now it was not expected to do so.

II.   Omicron would not hit our economy as hard as western peers

Last Friday both A-share and HK stocks fell. Yet we believe that Omicron would not hit China’s economy as hard as other nations due to the effective control measures of the pandemic in China. Moreover, the correction of international stock markets would not have a big impact on both A-share and HK stocks. In the first place, both markets lagged their global peers year-to-date. In the second place the two markets are valued at relatively low levels,meaning that they have priced in a lot of negatives including potential ones such as Omicron. While industrial profit in October grew strongly the economy is still faced with downward pressure due to that property sector is going down. At this point we think that more easing policy would come out and growth sectors would benefit from the policies more than value sectors.

IV. A-share performed the best last week

Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index rose last week, the only two indexes among the 16 global major stock indexes. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

     壹 龙头企业纷纷募集资金

     在新能源车和储能行业快速发展之际，行业内公司纷纷通过多种融资方式筹集资金。11月24日，某电解液龙头企业公告定拟定增募资不超过55亿元，计划将其中的44亿元用于年产10万吨新型电解质锂盐项目，剩下的11亿元用于补充流动资金。值得注意的是，就在今年5月，该公司才刚刚完成一轮11.4亿元的定增。动力电池和隔膜龙头企业也分别发布了巨额定增计划。11月22日晚间，隔膜龙头企业披露非公开发行预案，公司拟定增募资不超128亿元，用于新增锂电池隔膜项目、铝塑膜项目等项目及补充流动资金。其中98亿元用于扩产，30亿元用于补充流动资金。11月15日晚间，动力电池龙头企业发布《关于调整向特定对象发行股票方案的公告》，把募集资金总额从不超过582亿元下调到不超过450亿元，主要用于扩充产能。而一家A-H两地上市的动力电池龙头企业年内在H股两次融资，分别获得138亿港元和299亿港元的资金。不光是中国企业忙于扩充产能，韩国在动力电池领域一个主要参与者LG Energy Solution（LG新能源）计划在2021年IPO，拟融资金额预计约100亿美元。

     贰 资本投入强度大幅提升

     这些企业短期内大规模扩产，导致资本投入强度大幅度提升。以前述动力电池龙头企业为例，从2014年到2020年，其资本支出占销售收入比例每年均在21-36%的区间。而隔膜龙头企业从2018年开始资本强度大幅度提升，从之前每年的资本支出占销售收入比例不足9%大幅提升到60%上下。随之而来的是自由现金流大幅下降，从2018年到2020年，其每年的自由现金流为-12到-16亿人民币。

     叁 产能会不会过剩？

     我们对比了传统能源企业在高峰期的资本支出强度，发现该传统能源龙头企业在2004到2008年每年的资本强度一直保持在33-43%的水平，2009年资本强度下降到26%，之后逐渐下降，近几年都在个位数的水平。因为过去10年传统能源企业一直遭遇产能过剩的困扰。当前的新能源会不会在大规模扩产之后面临同样的产能过剩问题呢？

     肆 市场仍缺乏方向

     A股缩量下跌，港股缩量上涨。市场仍处在缺乏方向的振荡中，一些冷门股表现较好。美股因感恩节休市。欧洲股市上涨，尽管疫情仍在加剧。

I . Capacity expansion

Companies in new energy sector recently has expanded capacity aggressively as the sector is at a booming stage. A leading producer of LiPF6 announced that it would raise capital at RMB 5.5 billion via private placement with RMB 4.5 billion to expand production capacity of 10-tonne electrolyte lithium salt and the remaining RMB 1 billion to supplement working capital. 

Before that the leading player in EV cell also announced that it would adjust down fund raised from RMB 58.2 billion to no more than RMB 45billion with a purpose to expand its EV cell production capacity. Another EV cell player with A and H dual listing has raised HK$ 13.8 billion and 29.9 billion respectively via two private placements recently. 

Also a renowned battery separator producer announced that it would raise no more than RMB 12.8 billion via private placement to increase production capacity. Not only Chinese players are busy in raising money to expand capacity. So do international players. LG Energy Solution, a leading EV cell player in South Korea is expected to raise US$ 10billion via IPO.

II. Capital expenditure intensity increased sharply

The capital expenditure intensity, which is capital expenditure in a year divided by revenue in that year, has increased sharply due to the fast capacity expansion for these companies in new energy sector. Take the example of the leading EV cell player in China, its capital expenditure intensity was at 21%-36% from 2014 to 2020. The battery separator player’s capital expenditure intensity was below 8% before 2018 but increased sharply to around 60% from 2018.

III. Would the production capacity become surplus?

We checked a leading coal miner’s capital expenditure intensity. It was at 33-43% from 2004 to 2008 and fell to 26% in 2009. From 2009 due to production capacity surplus this ratio fell continuously and was below 10% lately. We doubt that the new energy sector might face the same production surplus issue after this capacity expansion race.

IV. Market still lacks direction

A-share fell while HK stocks rose slightly. Volume was light in both markets. The US market closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The European market rose despite the spreading pandemic.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

     壹 盈利增长有支撑

     很多投资人担忧美联储收回流动性会对美股造成较大冲击。当前，美股估值确实不低。但高估值不是股市回调的理由。股市回调的一个动力是企业盈利下行。从近期美国经济数据看，经济仍很强劲，就业持续恢复，消费有支撑。所以，短期还看不到上市公司盈利回调的风险。

     贰 看看货币体系

     另外一个动力就是流动性紧缩超预期。那么美联储回收因应对疫情而释放的巨额流动性面临怎样的挑战呢？从数据来看，这个挑战恐怕是史无前例的。先看一下美国的货币分类。美国的货币体系中，M1、M2和M3都被称作狭义货币。按照流动性划分，M1是指随时可用来支付的货币，它是现金加上支票账户和旅行账户；M2是M1加上具有一定流动性的存款，包括储蓄账户、货币市场账户、小额存单、货币市场共同基金、隔夜欧洲美元和隔夜回购协议；M3是M2加上某些流动性较差的储蓄，包括大额存单、机构的货币市场账户、定期存款和定期的回购协议。所以，流动性而言M1大于M2，M2大于M3。

     叁 零期限货币

     除了这三个指标，还有一个MZM，即零期限货币，衡量那些不需要给银行任何提前通知，所有者即可使用的金融资产。MZM等于M2减去任何定期存款，因为这些存款需要提前通知银行，加上从M3中划出来的货币市场基金。

     肆 增速处在历史第二高点

     MZM存量数据从1960年开始，至今有61年的历史。其月度同比增速在历史上有两个高点，一个是上世纪八十年代，MZM月度同比增速在1983年1月到12月超过20%，最高点为1983年6月和7月，同比增速超过37%；一个就是2020年4月至2021年初，同比增速也超过20%。

     伍 通胀压力较上一次高点大

     但是1983年美国全年的消费者价格指数同比增速保持在2.5-3.8%之间，算是一个温和通胀；而当前美国面临6%以上的通胀，未来通胀持续保持在高位甚至再创新高都有可能。在这种情况下，回收流动性成为美联储的当务之急。截止2021年1月，MZM存量为22万亿美金（下同），相当于美国一年的GDP。2020年2月份，在疫情发生之前，MZM为17万亿。如果MZM要回到疫情前，需要回收5万亿。这对金融市场的潜在冲击可能不会是轻微的。

     陆 市场预期美联储将加快回收流动性

     A股和港股均小幅上涨。港股公用事业和能源板块涨幅居前；A股煤炭和白酒涨幅居前，而新能源板块调整。美国国债收益率继续攀升，上周首次申请失业救济人数下降到了19.9万人，为50年来的最低水平。市场预期美联储将在12月的议息会议上加快缩减债券购买计划。美科技股反弹。因疫情影响，经济复苏股回落。

I.Earnings growth would be solid

Investors worry about that the Fed’s tapering and later lifting interest rates would cause stock market to crash. At this moment the US equities are valued at high levels. Yet stocks would not fall only because of high valuation. One factor that would cause stocks to fall is earnings growth slowdown or even decline. The recent economic data showed that the US economy has been very solid. The employment data was better than expected and consumption remained strong. A strong economy supports strong earnings growth of listed companies. The other one is liquidity crunch. Hence,unless the Fed takes back liquidity faster than expected the US stocks would go up.

II.MZM

Then how to evaluate the tasks of taking back liquidity by Fed? The data shows that this task would be unprecedentedly challenging. In the US there is a measure of liquidity called MZM. It measures those money that clients can take out without giving notice to banks in advance.

III.The second highest growth of MZM in history

From 1960 till now the monthly growth rate of MZM has two peak periods. One is from Jan. 1983 to December 1983, when MZM monthly year-on-year (yoy) growth rate reached above 20% and above 37% in June 1983 and July 1983. The other one is from April 2020 to Jan. 2021, when the monthly yoy growth rate reached above 20%.

IV.Inflation is much higher now

But Consumer Price Index only grew at 2.5-3.8% yoy throughout 1983. Currently CPI grew above 6% and might grow even higher going forward. MZM was US$17 trillion in Feb. 2020 before COVID-19 crises and US$22 trillion in Jan. 2021. The Fed would have to take back US 5 trillion to come back to the previous level. This would likely cause market to react strongly.

IV.The Fed is likely to take back liquidity faster

Both A-share and HK stocks rose slightly. Utilities and energy sector rose the most in HK market while coal and liquor sector rose the most in A-share. The US initial jobless claim last week was 199,000, the lowest in about 50 years. The US 10-year treasury yield continuedto rise. The Fed could speed up the end of its US$ 120 billion monthly bond purchase program.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

     壹 两家财务造假的公司

     近期因某家上市公司的财务欺诈导致投资人遭受严重损失。但在严刑峻法下，投资人的损失可以大部分获得赔偿。另外一家以预制膜起家的企业在2015年至2018年分别虚增利润总额23.81亿元、30.89亿元、39.74亿元和24.77亿元，四年累计虚增利润总额119.21亿元。扣除虚增利润，该公司连续四年净利润实际为负。该公司实际控制人锒铛入狱，而股票也在下跌近90%以后退市。投资人也遭受严重损失。

     贰 一个财务指标

     投资人应该非常关心如何回避这些造假的企业？我们通过研究发现有一个财务指标比较有效，就是营运资金占销售收入的比例。所谓营运资金就是应收账款+存货+预付账款减去应付账款+预收账款+合同负债。营运资金实质上是维持企业运营的生命线。只要有营运资金，企业就能够活下去。对于一些运营好的企业，比如有些在消费、计算机或者工程机械行业的企业，营运资金可能是负值。即企业只需要开动设备，就有供货商提供原材料，企业等生产出产品收回货款后再支付供货商的账款就可以。因此，这些企业的运营如同印钞机一般创造利润。但是，对于一些运营较差的企业，营运资金占销售收入的比例往往很高。

     叁 70%是个预警信号

     我们研究发现，无论是近期披露的造假企业还是前述以预制膜起家的企业，当营运资金占比提升到销售收入的70%的时候，企业的运营就难以为继了。这背后的道理就是一个企业如想创造一元钱的销售收入，需要投入7毛钱的营运资金。因为需要投入维持企业运营的资金太多了，因此，往往在这个财务指标达到70%之后就会爆出企业造假的消息。企业可以在三张财务报表上分别造假，但是很难在现金流上造假。而三张报表之间都存在勾稽关系，通过将资产负债表和利润表相结合，就比较容易发现问题。

     肆 美国债收益率上升

     A股上涨，港股下跌。钢铁板块涨幅居前。因铁矿石空头减少，铁矿石大幅上涨。港股下跌，因担忧美联储主席鲍威尔在第二个任期将会加紧回收流动性。周二美国10年期国债收益率上升到1.66%，投资人对此感到担忧，美国科技股继续调整。我们之前分析过，美国10年期国债收益率上涨空间是有限的，因美国当前的巨额债务。详情请见美联储能退出宽松货币政策吗？虽然美国总统拜登释放了5000万桶石油储备，但是美国石油协会认为这对市场的影响可能仅仅是短暂的，油价上涨。欧洲股市因疫情严重而承压。

I. Two companies that made financial fraud

Recently a listed company causedinvestors to incur big losses due to financial fraud. These investors could becompensated by the company’s owner, related managers and directors along withauditing firm and legal firm. Other investors are not that lucky. A listedcompany with its main business in precursor film increased its net profit falselyby RMB 2.381 billion, 3.089 billion, 3.974 billion and 2.477 billion respectivelyfrom 2015 to 2018. The aggregated net profit increased falsely was RMB 11.921billion.The owner of the company was sentenced to be in jail for years. The company’s stockwas delisted after it fell close to 90%. Its stock investorssuffered big losses.

II. A financial ratio

Sohow to check out whether a company is making financial fraud is very importantfor stock investors. We have found out a financial ratio which is likely to behelpful. It is working capital divided by sales in the same year. Workingcapital is the sum of account receivables, inventory and prepaid account minus thesum of account payable, deposit received and contract liability. The workingcapital is the life line of a company to some extent. As long as a company has moneyfor working capital, it can survive.

III. 70% is the threshold

Wefound out that if the ratio of working capital divided by sales in the sameyear reaches 70%, it would not be far from the point that the company wasrevealed financial fraud. This is true in both companies mentioned above. The 70%of the ratio means that a company has to invest RMB 0.7 for RMB 1 sales, whichis not sustainable. This financial ratio combines items in both balance sheetand income sheet. As items in the three financial sheets of a company has articulation,it is easier to find out problems if combining items in two or three sheets.

IV. The US 10-year treasury yield rose

A-share rose while HK stocks fell. Marketis concerned that in the second term the Fed chairman Powell would hasten withdrawingliquidity. The US 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.66% on Tuesday from 1.54% last Friday. Bank and energy stocks rose while tech stocks continue to fall for a second day.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

     壹 独董离职公司数量创四年新高

     我们在2021年11月19日发表了如果在美国造假...，预言伴随某上市公司实控人、高管和独董以及中介机构被判罚承担连带责任，向投资人支付巨额赔偿金后，独董的离职恐怕将会接二连三。然而，事实却大超预期：独董们不是接二连三地辞职，而是蜂拥辞职。据有关媒体报道，11月份截止11月20日，上市公司发布独董辞职公告的数量同比和环比增长都在60%左右。独董离职的上市公司数量创下4年来的同期新高。

     贰 上市公司谴责离职独董

     有些上市公司甚至有两到三名独董同时离职。根据中国证监会于2001年颁布的《关于在上市公司建立独立董事制度的指导意见》（目前仍实行）中的规定，股份有限公司董事会成员为5-19人，其中独立董事不少于1/3。这意味着一家上市公司如果董事会成员为5人的话，至少需要两名独立董事。所以，前述多名独董辞职的公司可能是独董们集体请辞。11月22日A股收市后又爆出某家上市公司因为独董辞职而谴责独董的消息，给这场别样离职潮又带来了独特的意味。

     叁 有些上市公司业绩质量不高

     如果查看某些独董宣布离职的公司的财务报表，发现有些公司确实存在现金流不佳、业绩增速乏力等问题。举一个例子：某家上市公司2020年经营性现金流净流入金额是正的，看上去还不错。但是如果细看就发现该公司2020年的应收账款和存货都大幅增加，占用大量资金，而经营性现金流能够为正完全是靠压供应商的款项实现的，即应付账款也大幅增加。这样的财务报表质量委实不高，投资人在投资的时候都要搞清楚。而作为独董，尤其是对会计学知识掌握颇深的人士，可能对数字背后隐含的意义就更清楚了。

     肆 有利于A股市场良性发展

     从这个角度看也就不难理解这场独董离职狂潮了。当然，这对于A股市场的发展也是一件有意义的事情。以后，独董们一定需要负起责任独董的责任，而真正发挥独董们的独立职责无疑有助于A股市场的高质量发展。

     伍 美联储可能会加快回收流动性

     A股上涨，港股小幅调整。新能源板块在A股和港股均表现较好，房地产板块在上周五大涨后回落。土地市场流拍现象令市场担忧房地产行业发展前景。美联储主席鲍威尔再获提名，市场认为美联储将会加快回收流动性，国债收益率上涨，科技股大跌。

I. The resignation crowd 

We published “If financial fraud is made in the US” 如果在美国造假...on Nov. 19th 2021 and predicted that independent directors ofboard would resign one after another. Yet it turned out that independent directors crowded to resign. According to statistics by some media, by Nov. 20th in November the number of listed companies who announced independent directors’ resignation rose around 60% year-on-year and month-on-month and reached four-year high. 

II. Some companies likely lost all of its independent directors 

Some companies even announced two or three independent directors’resignation at the same time. According to “The guidelines for setting up the arrangement of independent directors in listed companies” issued in 2001 by China Securities Regulatory Commission, there should be 5-19 directors on the board of a company limited by share and independent directors should be more than one third of the total directors. As such a company limited by share should have at least 2 independent directors. This means that for those companies that 2 or 3 independent directors resigned they might lose all of their independent directors. On Nov. 22nd, it was reported that a listed company condemned an independent director who insisted resignation. This makes the exodus of independent directors this time different from the previous ones. 

III. Quality of financials is not high 

If going through the financials of these listed companies that independent directors resigned, some companies earned positive operating cash flow in 2020. Yet if looking into the details one would find out that their account receivables and inventory increased sharply. And their positive operating cash flow came from the sharply-increased account payables. It is understandable that the independent directors to resign. We take this as positive to China’s capital market as independent directors would have to take their responsibilities to supervise the listed companies.

IV. Market is concerned that the Fed would take back liquidity sooner

A-share rose while HK stocks fell slightly. New energy sector rose the most. The US tech stocks fell as the Fed would likely hasten withdrawing liquidity in Powell’s second term.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 今年前三季度财政和货币政策偏紧

      央行发布的《2021年第三季度货币政策报告》和10月份房地产企业开发贷数据似乎给希望政策宽松的投资人一些安慰。但是，市场上对是否会有持续的政策宽松以及是否会有由此而来的跨年行情有较大争议。因为宏观杠杆率在2020年为应对疫情而上升，今年无论财政政策还是货币政策都是偏紧的。

       贰 货币政策

      2021年前三季度货币政策力度指数为44.3，与上半年的44.4相比有所下降，与2020年同期的55.2相比明显偏小。货币政策力度指数的下降，主要是因为数量型货币政策工具收紧略有偏快，M2和社融存量同比增速都下降较快。

        叁 财政政策

        2021年前三季度财政政策力度指数为47.8，与一季度的46.1和上半年的46.7相比略有升高，这主要是因为前三季度的赤字率高于一季度和上半年的赤字率。但是，不管是与疫情之下的2020年相比，还是与疫情之前的2018年和2019年相比，2021年以来财政政策力度都相对偏小。从子指标来看，财政政策力度偏小主要是受到财政支出进度偏慢和财政收入增速相对偏快两方面因素的影响。

       肆 2018年底的跨年行情

      虽然4季度经济可能在3季度低基数基础上环比上行，但明年1、2季度的经济压力还比较大。因此，政府出台政策也会相机抉择。在政策支持下，股市的跨年行情也有可能。通过分析2018年10月到2019年4月份的市场反弹，我们发现有利好因素刺激的板块会持续走强。2018年10月到2018年4月，A股全部28个行业均取得正收益，其中涨幅居前的板块为农林牧渔、综合、计算机、通信和房地产；而涨幅居后的行业为银行、钢铁、采掘、公用事业和建筑装饰。上涨居前的板块估值在2018年10月都处在历史较低水平。农林牧渔板块的上涨主要来自生猪价格的上涨；综合板块则是其中的一些公司业绩持续超预期。而涨幅落后的行业钢铁和采掘是周期性行业，银行、公用事业和建筑装饰也是因为市场对经济的悲观预期。

      伍 当下买什么？ 

      因此，当下如果有跨年反弹行情，我们认为还是从景气度和估值两方面选择板块会比较稳妥。当下，处在历史估值较低水平的行业有医药、电子和轻工制造等板块。尽管经济可能走弱，这些低估值板块中有一些未来仍会保持景气度，值得配置。

I. Tight policies 

The 3Q2021 China Monetary Policy Report along with the news that loans to property developers grew month-on-month in October gave market signs that easing policies are on the way. While some doubt that this easing policy can sustain, others believe that government would continue to loosen monetary and fiscal policy. Well, that could be true. 

II. Monetary policy 

According to the People’s University of China in 9M2021 both monetary and fiscal policy in China were stringent. The monetary policy intensity index in 9M2021 was 44.3 versus 44.4 in 1H2021 and 55.2 in 2020 due to that the year-on-year growth rate slowed down for both M2 and Aggregate Social Financing. 

III. Fiscal policy 

Fiscal policy intensity index was 47.8 in 9M2021 versus 46.1 in 1Q2021 and 46.7 in 1H2021. But it was smaller than in 2020 and 2019 due to the slower fiscal expenditure and faster fiscal income. While 4Q2021 could see economy grow quarter-on-quarter due to the lower base in 3Q2021,economy in 1Q2022 and 2Q 2022 could be faced with challenges due to high base in 2021. Hence, we believe that easing policies could come out at appropriate timing.

IV. Sectors performance in late 2018 market rebound

We analyzed the rebound of A-share in late 2018 and early 2019 and found out that those sectors with low valuation and promising prospects outperformed. From October 19th 2018 to April 8th 2019 all of the 28 sectors in A-share rose. The top-performing sectors were farming and fishery, conglomerate, computer, telecommunication and property sector. For farming and fishery sector the rising swine prices gave it a strong boost. Conglomerate sector rallied due to that some stocks in the sector delivered earnings growth better than expected continuously. The sectors lagged behind included bank, mining, iron and steel, construction and decoration and utilities.These sectors, while being valued at low valuation levels, actually reflected the pessimism of market to the broad economy. Now pharmaceutical, electronic and light industrial sector etc are at their historical lows, among which some have a bright future despite the slowing economy.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。