壹 造假被严厉惩罚

      近期，A股的一家上市公司因为财务造假而被处罚。连带责任下公司的实际控制人、董事会秘书、独立董事以及相关的中介机构包括会计师事务所和律师事务所等都受到牵连，需要支付巨额赔偿金。市场欢呼A股市场上造假者终于能够得到应有惩罚。同时，这一案例也意味着担任上市公司独董需承担法律风险。周四爆出一家上市公司独董辞职的消息。今后在A股市场这样的新闻可能会接二连三, 造假在A股也将变得越来越难。

      贰 美国如何处理造假？

      美股市场上也曾发生过财务造假事件。2001年，安然公司财务造假，CEO和CFO被判刑入狱，为安然公司提供审计服务的安达信会计师事务所破产倒闭。投资者通过集体诉讼获得了高达71.4亿美元的和解赔偿金。安然公司的高管、中介机构以及投资银行都受到重罚。美国花旗集团、摩根大通和美洲银行被判向安然受害投资者分别赔付20亿美金、22亿美金和6900万美金。

      叁 《萨班斯法案》

      2002年美国出台了《萨班斯法案》，该法案规定：对编制违法违规财务报告的刑事责任，最高可处500万美元罚款或者20年监禁。篡改文件的刑事责任，最高可处20年监禁。证券欺诈的刑事责任，最高可处25年监禁。此外，还设立了对上市公司欺诈行为的举报奖，举报者可以获得罚款金额10-30%的奖励金。

      肆 美国退市率高

      美国对造假行为的严厉处罚使得上市公司意识到：业绩不好大不了退市；但是如果造假，那就要有坐穿牢底的思想准备。因此，对造假的严厉惩处也在很大程度上推动了美国上市公司的退市步伐。根据世界证券交易所联合会，从2007年到2018年10月，纳斯达克上市公司退市2776家，退市率为7.6%；纽交所上市公司退市1823家，退市率为6.6%。

      伍 我国退市率有望提升

      相比而言，A股和港股的退市率均较低。同一期间，上证指数、深成指和恒生指数的退市率分别为0.3%、0.1%和1.2%。我国未来推行全面注册制。注册制中一个重要环节就是退市制度。随着惩罚造假等制度安排日趋完善，退市在A股市场也将会成为一个常见的现象。

      陆 A股缺乏方向

      A股和港股下跌。A股国防军工、钢铁和有色涨幅领先，而前期表现较好的传媒、休闲服务和家用电器领跌。A股和港股当前都缺乏明确的方向，板块轮动也很快。美股3季报即将发布完成，80%的公司业绩超预期。美股科技股上涨。

I. Financial fraud was punished

Recently an A-share company has attracted market focus. Due to financial fraud its owner, secretary of the board, independent directors along with its audit firm and legal firm were sentenced to pay a big amount of money to its stock investors. On Thursday an independent director of a listed company resigned, which might be due to the legal joint responsibility. We foresee that there might be more independent directors to resign from the listed company as they do not want to shoulder the potential legal risks.

II. Financial fraud in the US 

Financial fraud also happened in the US. In 2001 Enron Corporation was found to make financial fraud.Its CEO, CFO along with audit firm and investment banks were sentenced to pay US$740 million to investors. In 2002, the US issued Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Under this Act those who make financial fraud would be sentenced up to 20 years and be fined as much as US$ 5 million. Moreover, those whistleblowers would be awarded 10-30% of those fined money. 

III. High delisting ratio in the US

From then on, financial fraud has become rare in the US. Those senior managers and owners of a company are faced with delisting due to lackluster performance. But it would be better than to be in jail due to financial fraud. Actually from 2007 to October 2018 the delisting ratio of Nasdaq Stock Exchange was 7.6%. An aggregated 2776 companies were delisted from Nasdaq. The delisting ratio in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)was 6.6% and an aggregated 1823 companies delisted from NYSE. 

IV. Delisting in A-share would become common in the future 

Compared with the US the delisting ratio in both A-share and HK market was low. It was 0.3%, 0.1%and 1.2% for Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and HK Stock Exchange respectively during the same period. China is on the way to a comprehensive registering system in A-share. The punishment for wrongdoings in listed companies would encourage more companies to choose delisting in the future.

V. No direction for A-share at this moment

Both A-share and HK stocks fell.Both markets are at a loss as to which direction to go. The US tech stocks rose. 80% of those SP 500 companies that reported 3Q2021 earnings beat expectation. The tech stocks rallied.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 别人家的股市

      我们在2021年8月发表了别人家的股市。自8月以来，别人家的股市表现越来越好，而A股和港股则表现持续落后。在全球16个主要国家和地区的指数中，有6个国家和地区指数年初以来涨幅超过20%，法国、俄罗斯、印度SENSEX30、标普500、纳斯达克和中国台湾地区分别上涨28.8%、27.4%、25.7%、25.2%、23.9%和20.2%。4个国家的指数上涨超过10%但低于20%，德国DAX、道琼斯、英国富时100和澳大利亚标普200指数分别上涨18.4%、18.1%、13.4%和11.9%。上涨低于10%的是日经225、韩国综合指数、深成指、上证指数，分别上涨8.2%、3.7%、1.9%和1.7%。恒生指数和巴西股指是仅有的两个下跌的股指，分别下跌5.8%和12.3%。

      贰 上涨有上涨的理由

      发达国家股市涨幅较高，一方面是发达国家一直保持着支持经济的宽松政策，对股市提供了流动性支持。具体可参见为什么美元和人民币同步走强？另一方面，发达国家的经济周期慢于我国经济周期。今年前三季度，欧美日的经济仍处于库存周期上行期，企业业绩增速喜人，支撑股市上涨。但3季度以后，发达国家的经济周期也会逐渐进入下行期，这意味着股市也可能会面临下行压力。但是，这种下行也要视经济走势。近期，美国通过了1.2万亿美金（约7.7万亿人民币）的基建法案，而日本也将推出价值2.4万亿人民币一揽子支持经济计划。因此未来即使经济下行，可能也会较平缓。俄罗斯股市走强应与原油价格上涨紧密相关，而印度股市走强则是强有力的货币政策支撑。

      叁 对A股和港股无需过度悲观

      A股走平，港股小熊市，主要是因为我国相对严谨的货币政策和财政政策以及经济进入下行周期。7月份以来的一些政策变化也引发了市场风险偏好的降低。我们预判经济应该在明年1-2季度企稳，之前预期的刺激政策也会随着经济的下行压力增加而逐渐出台。因此，当前估值水平下，我们认为对市场不应该过于悲观。

      肆 美股调整

      A股缩量上涨，港股缩量下跌。A股26个行业中，19个行业上涨，7个行业下跌。新能源板块领涨，银行、食品饮料和农林牧渔跌幅居前。因劳动力短缺和材料成本上升，美国10月新屋开工数下跌0.7%，折年率降至152万套。受经济数据低于预期影响，美股调整。股神巴菲特据报道连续四个季度净卖出股票。

I. Other people's stock market 

We published “Other people’s stock market”别人家的股市 in August 2021. From then on major stock market indexes continued to diverge. Among the 16 global major stock indexes 6 rose above 20% year-to-date (the same below). They are France,Russia, India Sensex30, SP500, Nasdaq and China Taiwan, which rose  28.8%、27.4%、25.7%、25.2%、23.9% and 20.2% respectively. Four stock indexes rose between 10-20%. They are Germany DAX, Dow Jones, FTSE100 and Australia SP200, which rose 18.4%、18.1%、13.4% and 11.9%.  Fourstock indexes rose less than 10%. They are Nikkei 225,  South Korea, Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index, which rose 8.2%、3.7%、1.9% and 1.7% respectively. There are only two stock indexes falling. They are Brazil and Hang Seng Index, which fell 12.3% and 5.8% respectively. 

II. The reasons behind the rally

That developed nations performed well this year was due to both supporting monetary policy and economic cycle. Their economies are on an upward stage of an inventory cycle before 3Q2021. Yet from 3Q2021 developed nations would go on the downward stage of an inventory cycle. Hence, their stock markets might be pressured in the future. Russia stocks performed well due to the rising oil prices. India stock market was boosted mainly by easing monetary policy. 

III. No need to be too pessimistic 

The lackluster performance of A-share and HK stocks was caused by stringent monetary and fiscal policy partly. Also China’s economy was on a downward stage of an inventory cycle. Moreover, some regulations from July decreased market risk preference to some extent. We are optimistic that supporting policies would come out eventually with the economy activities cooling down further. Hence, one should not be too pessimistic about China's stock market.

IV. The US stocks corrected

A-share rose while HK stocks fell with contracted volume.The October housingstarts in the US came in lower than expected due to high building material costs and labor shortage. The US stocks corrected. It was reported that Warren Buffett has been selling stocks this year.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹美元上涨

      近期美元和人民币同步上涨引起很多投资者的关注。截止11月16日，美元指数上涨到95以上，创下2020年7月以来的新高。年初至今，美元指数上涨6.2%。美元上涨主要是受到加息预期的推动。当前市场期待明年7月份美联储第一次加息。回顾2013年的第一次缩减债券规模，美元指数也是在加息预期升温后开始直线上涨。具体请参见这次也许不一样。

      贰 欧洲和日本量化宽松政策持续

      此次美元指数上涨与欧元和日元走弱也有一定关系。不同于美联储回收流动性的举措，欧央行和日本央行都表示将会持续支持经济，量化宽松无止境。欧央行早前更是提到了2011年的欧债危机中所犯的提早收回支持经济的错误，表示绝不会再次犯下相同的错误。日本央行总裁黑田东彦强调，央行已准备好维持大规模的刺激措施。自去年疫情以来，日本央行便开足马力买入日本股市，推动股指一路上行，日经225指数最大涨幅已超过88%。11月12日，日经新闻报道，日本政府计划实施规模超40万亿日元（约合人民币2.24万亿元）的新一轮经济刺激计划，这一规模接近日本2020年4月创纪录的新冠援助方案。

      叁 与经济复苏进程有关

      在2008年全球金融危机之后，美、欧、日三个发达经济体的经济复苏进程就以美国最快，日本次之，而欧洲最慢。此次新冠危机，从三个经济体目前的情况看，仍然是美国表现最佳。美元指数中欧元和日元占比是最大的两个货币，分别为57.6% 和13.6%。鉴于欧洲和日本持续的宽松政策和相对缓慢的经济复苏进程，未来欧元和日元承压而美元走强是大概率事件。

      肆 人民币走强

      近期，人民币兑美元汇率持续上涨，达到6.38，为2021年6月以来的最高水平。人民币汇率上涨应与10月份的经济数据表现超预期有关，具体请参见如果经济增速放缓...。同时，近期中美关系不断出现改善信号，外资对中国资产的热情重新点燃。这也是人民币汇率走强的原因之一。

      伍 喝酒吃药行情

      A股继续调整，港股上涨。医药和消费板块表现较好，喝酒吃药行情再现。而周期行业和前期热门板块跌幅较大。北京交易所股票在经历周一的大幅上涨后，周二大多调整。港股连续6个交易日上涨，前期备受打击的医药、科技和教育板块涨幅领先。美国10月零售数据超预期，显示尽管通胀水平很高，但消费者依然在消费。美股上涨。

I. The US dollar was strong

Recently both RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index rallied. The US dollar index was above 95 on Tuesday and rose 6.2% year-to-date. The recent rally of the US dollar index was mainly driven by the expectation of interest rate lift in 2022. Currently market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate in July 2022. In the first taper in 2013 and 2014 the US dollar index began to rally in the mid-2014 when market began to price in the interest rate lift expectation. 

II. The European Central Bank would maintain its supporting policies 

Moreover, the US withdrew liquidity earlier than Europe and Japan. The US dollar index is composed of 57.6% Euro and 13.6% Japan Yen and other currencies. The Euro and Japan Yen are the largest two components of the US dollar index. Recently the European Central Bank has reiterated its support for economy and said that it would not repeat the mistake made in 2011. In 2011 due to that the European Central Bank exited from quantitative easing policy earlier than expected, the Euro economy fell into depression again after the 2008 global financial crises.

III. So would Japan

The Japanese Bank also expressed the opinion that it would inject liquidity into economy if needed without hesitation. Moreover, Japanese government brought up with a new stimulus package valued at Japanese Yen 40 trillion (RMB 2.24 trillion). Given the quantitative easing policy of Europe and Japan, the Euro and Japanese Yen would be faced with downward pressure and the US dollar would strengthen. 

IV. RMB strengthen is supported by economy 

The RMB against the US dollar has been strong recently and reached 6.38 on Tuesday, which was the level in June 2020. It should be due to the better-than-expected economy datain October. Also international investors showed enthusiasm to Chinese assets.

V. Spirits and medicine sector rose in A-share

A-share fell while HK stocks rose. The spirits and medicine sector led A-share and HK market. HK stocks rose for six days in arow. The US retail sales in October came in higher than expected, which shows that despite the high inflation the US consumers still spent. The US stocks rose due to the better economic data. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 周一A股和港股调整

      周一A股和港股并没有延续上周的强劲走势双双调整。A股创业板跌幅居前，有可能是受到北京证券交易所开市的影响。房地产板块也在上周大幅上涨后调整，A股和港股房地产板块分别下跌0.9%和0.8%。但是，A股与房地产相关的建材、家电和家居板块均延续上涨态势，这些板块在很大程度上与存量地产带来的更新需求有关。受到房地产板块走势拖累，这些板块的估值也达到较低水平。

      贰 十月经济数据喜忧参半

      10月份经济数据显示工业生产和消费均超市场预期。10月份社会消费品零售总额数据同比增长4.9%，与2020年两年平均增速为4.6%，高于市场预期。但4.6%的同比增速仍是1995年有数据以来的最低水平。工业增加值同比增速为3.5%，与2020年两年平均为5.2%，仍处在历史较低水平。投资方面，基建投资增速同比转正，但是因缺乏优质基建项目，对未来基建投资增速的回升市场没有很高的预期。1-10月房地产开发投资同比增长7.2%，较1-9月份增速8.8%回落。考虑到目前房企的资金紧张状况，预计未来半年到一年房地产开发投资有可能会持续回落，对经济也会造成拖累。制造业投资向好，1-10月份制造业投资同比增长14.2%，两年平均为4.45%，恢复到2019年3月的水平。综上，10月的经济数据有喜有忧。但是，工业增加值、消费及制造业投资超预期能否持续到年底可能存疑。

      叁 刺激政策有可能出台

      考虑到未来房地产市场仍有下行压力，政府可能会考虑出台政策措施，从而保持经济增长的稳定性。有可能受益于政策刺激的板块包括消费、制造业投资相关板块等。

      肆 标普500每股收益与中国GDP的相关性为90%

      根据美国银行策略分析师，中国占标普500上市公司收入比例平均为5%，但在有些上市公司可能会高达60%。中国中产阶级的人口超过美国总人口。对美国公司而言，中国市场空间巨大。同时，这些公司利用中国的低制造成本取得了较快的盈利增速。过去30年，标普500上市公司利润率扩张的80%来自于全球化。当前中国经济放缓并没有完全反应到美股的估值上。来自中国的销售收入占比排名的前50家标普500公司，其当前估值高于历史平均估值一个标准差，因为这些公司的盈利增速要快于其他美国的跨国公司以及本土公司。

I. Both A-share and HK stocks corrected on Monday

Chinext Board fell the most, likely due to the opening of Beijing Stock Exchange. Property sector fell 0.9% and 0.8% respectively in A-share and HK market respectively after last week rally.But construction material, home appliance and furniture sector rose. These sectors are correlated with existing homes and their valuation has been pressed to very low levels due to market concern on property sector. 

II. The October economic data came in mixed 

Industrial value-added and retail sales were above expectation but still at low levels in history. Industrial value-added grew 3.5% year-on-year(yoy) in October. Combined 2020 and 2021 industrial value-added grew 5.2% yoy,which is still at a relatively low level in history. Retail sales grew 4.9% yoy. Combined 2020 and 2021 retail sales grew 4.6% yoy, which is the lowest level from 1995 when the data began to be released. Manufacturing investment grew 14.2% from January to October 2021. Combined 2020 and 2021 manufacturing investment grew 4.45% yoy, which was the level in March 2019. Property investment grew 7.2% from January to October 2021, down from 8.8% in September. 

III. There might be stimulus measures 

Given the capital constrains of property developers, property investment might see declining growth rate in the next 6-12 months. We judge that government would bring up with more stimulus measures, given the down pressure due to the property sector’s slowdown. Consumption and manufacturing should benefit from these policies.

IV. The US stocks correlate with China economy 

China accounts for an average of 5% of SP 500 companies’ sales and more than 60% for some. According to Bank of America the correlation between SP 500 earnings per share and China economy is 90%. Also more than 80% of margin expansion for the SP500 is due to globalization over the last 30 years. Currently those companies ranked at the top 50 based on their revenue from China are valued at one standard deviation higher than their historical average and also higher than other multinationals and domestic companies in the US.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 A股和港股边际企稳

      上周因为10月社融数据呈现企稳迹象、央行推出碳减排贷款以及政府对房地产行业的政策有放松迹象，A股和港股上涨。同时周末传出中美关系有进一步改善的迹象和外资在3季度增持中概股的消息。从11月到明年1月份，A股处于业绩真空期。根据以往经验，A股在经历了近两个月的调整之后很有可能进入冬季躁动期。我们认为从情绪面上看，A股确实已经到了一个相对低点，叠加政策面的刺激，对年底前的走势可以乐观一些。

      贰 广义货币增速和社融企稳

      从货币供应量的角度看，10月份的社融存量同比增速保持在9月份的水平为10%，M2的同比增速为8.7%，高于9月份的9.3%，表明信用扩张应该已经开始。这也可以从居民购房贷款审批加快以及专项债发行提速等消息中得到印证。

      叁 狭义货币增速走弱

      我们判断社融和M2的增速可能会保持稳定向上，但M1的增速很可能会继续走弱。10月份M1同比增速为2.8%，为2020年2月以来的最低水平。从2010年至今11年间，M1同比增速只在2014年1月、2018年10月到2019年2月、2020年4月低于当前水平，M1同比增速在这四个时间段分别为1.2%、0.4-2.7%和0%。M1同比增速在2020年11月、12月和2021年1月份分别为10%、8.6%和14.7%，处在较高水平。因此，我们判断未来三个月M1的同比增速还会下行，并很有可能在2022年1月份也接近0%。彼时M1同比增速见到最低点。

      肆 股市低点可期

      对股市而言，M1同比增速达到最低点通常会预示股市企稳或者开始反弹。历史上看，M1同比增速与上证指数低点基本重合或者领先几个月的时间。据此判断，上证指数在明年年初或1季度见底的概率较大。投资人如果想参与当前的反弹，我们认为还是寻找估值和基本面匹配的行业，如大金融、地产相关产业链等。成长股中也有很多业绩增速较高且估值较低的品种，需要自下而上进行挖掘。

      伍 上周A股和港股领涨全球

      受到政策利好因素刺激，A股和港股上周表现较好。而俄罗斯和美国三大指数表现落后。本周北京证券交易所正式开始交易。因北京证券交易所上市公司的估值较科创板和创业板上市公司的估值水平都低，市场对北交所开业后的公司股价表现有一定的期待。

I. Stocks rallied due to favorite policies  

Both A-share and HK stocks rallied last week due to that government loosened policy on property sector and that the People’s Bank of China promoted carbon emission loans. Over the weekend it was reported that Sino-US relationship has the possibility of further improvement and that international investors kept buying Chinese big internet giants. Both A-share and HK stocks could continue to rise given the positive policy environment and news catalysts. Yet based on history A-share might still have room to fall after the rally. 

II. ASF and M2 growth rate has reached bottom

In October the Aggregate Social Financing (ASF) rose 10% year-on-year (yoy), which was line with the growth rate in September. This signals that ASF growth rate might have reached bottom.The broad money M2 grew 8.7% yoy in October, which was higher than that in September. This could mean that M2 has bottomed out as well. 

III. M1 growth rate might fall further 

However, the narrow money M1 only grew 2.8% yoy in October. From 2010 there were three times when M1 yoy growth rate was lower than October 2021, which was Jan. 2014, from October 2018 to Feb.2019, and April 2020. M1 grew 10%, 8.6% and 14.7% yoy in Nov. 2020, Dec.2020 and Jan. 2021. Given the high base over these three months, we judge that the yoy growth rate of M1 might not reach the lowest point until Jan. 2022. The low growth point of M1 usually coincides with the low point of Shanghai Composite Index or lead by a couple of months. As such the low of A-share could be seen in 1Q2022. 

IV. Low-valued stocks and growth stocks are good choices

If investors want to participated in the rebound of stocks low-valued stocks such as financials and property etc could be good choices. There are also growth stocks with reasonable valuation which require bottom-up analysis.

V. Stocks in BSE could perform well

HK stocks and A-share led the global stock markets last week.Russia index along with the three major indexes in the US performed worst. Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) will open on Monday this week. As stocks are valued at a discount in BSE versus those listed in STAR Board and Chinext Board market expects stocks in BSE to perform well.   

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 房地产板块大幅上涨

      受政策利好刺激，房地产板块周四上涨5.85%，涨幅在A股28个行业中第一，其次是建筑材料和非银金融，分别上涨5.42%和3.26%。房地产和建筑材料板块很多公司都上涨了10厘米或者20厘米。

      贰 政策可能不尽如预期

      市场在欢呼房地产政策放松，但盘后一个关于某市放松房地产限购的传闻被证伪。同时，辽宁省住房城乡建设厅近日会同相关部门联合印发《辽宁省持续整治规范房地产市场秩序行动方案》，重点整治未依法依规取得土地即开工建设，未按期动工或中止开发建设导致住宅项目用地构成闲置土地，房屋存在渗漏、开裂、空鼓等突出质量问题，未按房屋买卖合同约定如期交付，实际交付房屋与样板间或销售宣传资料严重不一致等行为。这说明地方政府对房地产企业仍然采取比较严厉的监管政策，也说明政策并不如市场期望的那样宽松。

      叁 估值会提升

      我们判断当前政策力度仅是让房地产企业能够活下去，离全面宽松可能还有很长的一段路要走。同时，当前放松政策并不会对房地产企业的基本面产生立竿见影的效果。因为现金流紧张，年底房地产企业不会积极参加土地拍卖。另外，房地产企业的销售和新开工等数据在今年4季度和明年1季度也会面临一定的挑战，很可能会同比持续负增长。市场前期因政策等因素对房地产及相关板块如建材家居等极其悲观，导致这些板块的估值回落到比较低的水平。我们认为宽松政策有助于房地产及相关板块估值的提升，随后板块应等待业绩底的确认。

      肆 双十一销售情况良好

      阿里巴巴发布消息称从11月1日到11日0时45分，已有382个品牌在天猫双11的成交额超过1亿元。京东也在推特上表示，从10月31日晚到11月11日，双十一的销售额达到人民币3111亿元。因为国家对互联网企业的整治，今年双十一没有大规模的宣传活动。同时，消费者也比较理性，而有些商品可能平时购买更划算。网购已成为中国消费者一个重要的购物渠道，有没有双十一消费者都会在网上买东西。

      伍 美国通胀可能已到顶点

      周三美股科技股反弹。美国10月消费者价格指数涨幅超预期，但可能是顶点。作为消费者价格指数的领先指标，干散货运价指数在今年10月7日达到5650的十年多的历史高点后，持续下跌。目前已下跌50%，达到6月以来的低点。

I. Property sector rallied 

A-share rallied on Thursday boosted by easing policies targeted property sector. Property sector rose 5.82%, the best-performing sector in A-share. Building material and non-bank financials were the second and third best-performing sector. Each rose 5.42% and 3.82% respectively. 

II. Policies might not be that favorite 

While market sentiment was boosted by policy, the news that some city loosened property purchasing policy proved to be a fake one. Moreover, Housing and Urban-rural Development Office of Liaoning Province issued “The action plan to continue the comprehensive improvement of housing markets in Liaoning Province” on Wednesday with an aim to punish those property developers that do not buy lands legally, do not build houses as regulated, and whose houses built have quality issues etc. This shows that local governments still regulate property developers strictly. 

III. Valuation would improve 

Nevertheless, the liquidity easing from central government would help improve the valuation levels of property developers and those related sectors such as building material sector etc.These sectors have suffered serious valuation contraction over the last couple of months due to regulation from both central and local governments. But the fundamentals of the property sector would still be faced with challenges in 4Q2021 and 1Q2022. The sales volume and new projects might decline year-on-year. Also property developers are not expected to buy land actively in the coming land auction due to their capital shortage and cash flow issues. It takes time for property developers to see their earnings bottom out.

IV. The inflation in the US might peak

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. The US tech stocks rebounded. Some analysts believed that the final two months of 2021 could see inflation ease as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has declined by 50% from its October peak and recently hit its lowest level since June, tracking a decline in global shipping rates. The US consumer price follows BDI closely.  

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。