壹 房地产政策有所放松

      A股和港股周三都探底回升，A股收盘微跌，港股收盘恒生指数上涨0.74%。周三戏剧性的V型反转主要是由于房地产板块的崛起。11月9日，中国银行间市场交易商协会举行房企代表座谈会，部分房企有计划近期在银行间市场注册发行债务融资工具。这意味着房地产企业境内发债的相关政策会有所松动，近期将会有房企在公开市场发债融资，同时，银行等机构投资者也会通过债券投资等方式重新为房企“输血”，防止房企资金链进一步恶化。盘后有一则有关按揭额度放松的消息流传，但随后被银行方面否认。

      贰 通胀超预期

      周三北上资金净流出118亿人民币，为7月26日以来单日净流出最大金额。7月26日当日北上净流出128亿人民币。北上资金为什么在时隔近4个月后又大幅流出呢？可能是与10月份的生产者价格指数的同比涨幅有关。10月生产者价格指数同比上涨13.5%，为历史最高水平。但10月以来，随着国家对煤炭价格的不断调控，上游资源类产品价格持续下跌。我们认为10月份PPI同比涨幅很可能就是高点。因此，外资的净流出很可能是膝跳反射，不具有持续性。

      叁 流动性边际改善

      周三收盘发布的10月份社融和信贷数据显示流动性边际改善。10月社融增量比去年同期多1970亿元，扭转了过去三个月同比下滑的趋势；同时新增信贷也同比多增1364亿元，逆转过去两个月的下滑趋势。因为专项债发行和居民中长期贷款的改善，这应归功于730 政治局会议之后一系列的纠偏动作。A股从9月触及高点以来持续下跌2个月。未来A股如何走应取决于经济下滑程度和政策出台力度二者的合力。

      肆 美国通胀超预期

      美国10月消费者价格指数（CPI）创出30年新高。10月CPI同比上涨6.2%，超市场预期。扣除能源和食品的核心CPI上涨6.2%，为1990年11月以来的最高月度涨幅。燃料油、能源、二手车价格都大幅上涨，推动了消费者价格指数的上涨。超预期的通胀意味着美联储加息的步伐可能要快于市场预期。目前市场预计明年将会有两次加息，有44%的概率加息三次。高于预期的CPI促使美股回落，科技股全面下跌，黄金价格上涨，国债收益率上涨。同时，上周美国申请失业救济人数也降低到了疫情发生以来的最低水平，显示美国经济持续在复苏。

I.Property sector rallied 

Both A-share and HK stocks made a U-turn on Wednesday. At closing A-share fell just slightly from Tuesday’s closing prices while Hang Seng Index rose 0.74%. The property sector’s rally contributed to the U-turn. A couple of good news pushed the sector higher. National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors convened a meeting of property developers on November 9th, 2021. It was reported that some national property developers owned by central government were allowed to issue debt in interbank market and banks would buy bonds of property developers again. These measures would prevent property developers from capital strain rupture. 

II. Liquidity was easing to some extent

Moreover, the aggregate social financing (ASF) in October showed that liquidity was easing to some extent. ASF in October increased by RMB 197 billion year-on-year (yoy), reversing the down trend over the last three months. Also new loans increased by RMB 136.4 billion, reversing the down trend over the last two months. The liquidity expansion should be owed to the increased special project debt issuance and the residents’ medium- to long-term loans increase. These changes came after July 30th Politburo meeting. 

III. PPI grew higher than expected

North-bound capital saw the largest daily outflow at RMB11.8 billion, only lower than that on July 26th which saw net outflow of RMB 12.8 billion. The outflow of north-bound capital was triggered by October Producer price index (PPI),which rose 13.5% year-on-year and was the largest monthly increase in history. We believe that PPI should peak in October as government has taken various measures to control coal prices since October. The coal prices halved from its peak level. As such north-bound capital would come back later. A-share has corrected for two months since mid-September. How it performs in the future would be determined by policies and economic trend.

IV. The inflation in the US 

The US October consumer price index rose 6.2% yoy. It was the largest monthly increase yoy from Nov. 1990. The US stocks fell and tech stocks crashed. Gold prices rallied and treasury yield rose as well. Currently market has priced in two interest rate hikes in 2022.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 A股3季报利润率下滑

      A股2021年3季报截止2021年10月底全部披露完成。2021年3季度全部A股归母净利润同比增速为25.73%，较2021年上半年下降18.34个百分点。整体销售净利率为5.78%，较2021年上半年下跌0.18个百分点；销售毛利率为17.87%，较2021年上半年下跌0.34个百分点。3季度毛利率和净利率下跌一方面是因为上游原材料价格上涨，另一方面也反应需求疲弱。

      贰 美股3季报利润率提升

      同样是面对原材料价格上涨和供应链干扰导致零部件短缺的问题，美股表现截然不同。根据富国银行，美股3季度盈利较2季度环比上涨5.3%，标普500税前利润率从2季度的18.1%上涨到18.3%。

      叁 中国上市企业规模较小

      A股和美股的表现截然不同，背后反应的是规模效应及产业地位导致的价格传导能力不同。截止2021年10月，A股沪深两市上市公司数量为4537家，总市值为86.7万亿人民币，平均一家上市公司的市值为191亿人民币。美股截止2021年10月份上市公司数量接近5700家，总市值接近50万亿美金，平均一家上市公司的市值为88亿美金，566亿人民币。也即美国上市公司的平均规模接近中国公司的3倍。公司规模较大，意味着具有较强的定价能力。比如我国的半导体企业毛利率为30%左右，而美国半导体企业的毛利率在60%以上。一方面是我国半导体企业产品技术含量相对较低，另一方面也因为我国企业规模较小。

      肆 微笑曲线

      另一方面，美国公司多处在微笑曲线的两端，如麦当劳掌握品牌，授权其他加盟商经营；可口可乐也是品牌授权给瓶装商；苹果主要搞研发设计和品牌运营，而加工制造则全部外包。因此，美国上市公司的利润率远高于处在微笑曲线底部的制造业公司。而我国的上市公司以制造业公司为主，这也意味着他们的定价能力和成本传导能力都较弱。我国未来要做制造业强国，一方面要扩大企业规模，另一方面也要提升技术水平，争取向微笑曲线两端移动。即使处在微笑曲线底部，也要通过技术创新争取获得较高的利润率。

      伍 美股收跌

      A股和港股微涨。受到央行释放流动性刺激，有色金属板块涨幅领先。发改委和工信部发布《关于实施原料药产业高质量发展规划的通知》，推动医药板块上涨。美股从高位滑落，市场等待周三发布10月消费者价格指数数据。

I. Profit margin contracted in 3Q2021 in A-share 

A-share released its 3Q2021 earnings results by the end of October.The net profit of all A-share companies grew 25.73% year-on-year in 3Q2021, down by 18.34 percentage point (ppt) from 1H2021. The overall net profit margin was 5.78% in 3Q2021, down 0.18 ppt from 1H2021. The gross profit margin was 17.87%,down 0.34 ppt from 1H2021. The profit margin contraction was both due to rising raw material costs and lackluster demand. 

II. The US companies saw profit margin expansion in 3Q2021 

While also faced with high-flying input costs the US listed companies performed differently from Chinese companies in 3Q2021. According to Wells Fargo,the net profit of the US listed companies grew 5.3% quarter-on-quarter in 3Q2021. The pretax margin in 3Q2021 was 18.3% versus 18.1% in 2Q2021. 

III. The US companies are bigger 

The US companies were able to expand their profit margin because they are bigger than Chinese counterparts and they are on the two sides of the so-called smile curve. By October 2021 the average market cap of the listed companies in A-share was RMB 191 million versus 566 million in the US, i.e., the average US listed company is three times of the Chinese listed company. The bigger the company,the higher the pricing power and bargaining capabilities are. 

IV. Smile curve 

Moreover, the US companies are usually at the two ends of a smile curve. They either license their brands or focus on design and brand operation and outsource manufacturing.The two ends of a smile curve enjoy higher profit margin than manufacturing,which is at the bottom of the smile curve. As a result, the US companies have higher profit margin than Chinese companies. The 3Q2021 earnings tells us that Chinese companies still need to work hard to get to the two ends of a smile curve.

V. The US stocks fell 

Both A-share and HK stocks rose boosted by the liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China.Non-ferrous metal rose the most. Medicine sectors got boosted from government supporting measures. The US stocks fell from record. Market is waiting for the key October Consumer Price Index, which would be released on Wednesday. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 股市泡沫危害更大

      资产泡沫在历史上从不曾缺席。欧洲早期的三大泡沫--英国南海公司泡沫、法国密西西比股市泡沫和荷兰郁金香泡沫以及2000年互联网泡沫等都在历史上产生过深远的影响。相对而言，商品泡沫中受影响的投资人范围较小，其对经济冲击的程度较小；而股市泡沫通常涉及的人群较广，价值毁灭的程度更深更广，一般来说股市泡沫破灭通常伴随着经济危机的发生。

      贰 郁金香泡沫

      以欧洲早期三大泡沫为例，荷兰的郁金香热是最早的非理性资产泡沫实例之一。在1635年之前，郁金香球茎的价格已经持续上涨了很多年。1635到1636年，荷兰郁金香合同上涨幅度是5900%。1637年5月暴跌99%。和泡沫通常的情况一样，郁金香狂热吞噬了荷兰广泛的人群。在鼎盛时期，一些郁金香球茎的价格一度超过了一套豪华住宅的价格。

      叁 南海公司泡沫

      南海公司成立于1711年，英国政府承诺其垄断与南美西班牙殖民地的所有贸易。投资者预计东印度公司的成功会重演，抢购南海公司的股票。随着董事会们在南海（现在的南美）大肆宣扬难以想象的财富，公司的股票在1720年上半年上涨了约8倍，从1月的128镑上涨至6月的1050镑。随后几个月暴跌，引发了一场严重的经济危机。

      肆 密西西比股市泡沫

      而法国密西西比股市泡沫是最具现代特点的泡沫。这个泡沫的始作俑者是约翰·劳。他认为在就业不足的情况下，增加货币供给可以在不提高物价水平的前提下增加就业机会并增加国民产出。一旦产出增加之后，对货币的需求也会相应跟上来。在实现了充分就业之后，货币扩张能够吸引外部资源，进一步增加产出。约翰劳将其理论付诸实践，成功地将其所拥有的印度公司的股票成为法国货币发行的抵押品。但是，大量货币发行导致了严重的通货膨胀，而印度公司的股票价格也随之暴跌。泡沫的历史再次印证了黑格尔所说：人类从历史中得到的唯一教训就是从不曾从历史中学到任何教训。

      伍 港股续跌，美股续涨

      A股上涨，港股下跌。周期股表现领先。受到辉瑞新冠特效药消息影响，航空股、博彩股表现出色，而医药股表现低迷。中国人民银行推出利率为1.75%额度估计在1万亿人民币的碳减排支持工具，有利于提高市场总体流动性。美股受到1万亿美金基建计划的消息刺激继续上涨，卡特彼勒、约翰迪尔等基建股表现领先。

I. Stock bubbles are more dangerous 

Asset bubbles happened from time to time in history. Some asset bubbles are very famous such as the three bubbles in earlier Europe and the internet bubbles in 2000. Less people are affected in commodity bubbles than in stock bubbles. The latter usually would evolve into economic crises. 

II. Tulip bulb bubble

Take the example of the three bubbles in earlier Europe. The tulip bulb bubble is the earliest one. The prices of tulip bulb rose for many years before 1635. But the contract of tulip bulb rallied 5900% from 1635 to 1636. But in May 1637 it fell 99%. The mania of tulip bulb was so out of rage that at one time a tulip bulb cost a mansion. 

III. The British South Sea Company 

The British South Sea Company was set up in 1711 and got monopoly of the British trade with South America. Investors thought that this company would replicate the success of East India Company and poured their money into this company’s stock. The stock rose 8 times in 1H1720 but fell sharply in 2H1720. This caused an economic crisis in the UK. 

IV. Mississippi Bubble

The France Mississippi Stock Bubble happened due to John Law. He considered that increasing money supply would improve employment without causing inflation when economy was in subemployment. And when employment improves output would increase and so do demand for money  supply. When economy is in full employment investment would come back and output would increase further. He then succeeded in issuing money in France on the base of his company’s stock. But contrary to Law’s theory the massive moneysupply caused serious inflation. His company’s stock price fell sharply. The bubbles in history tell us a simple lesson: the only lesson that human learned from history is that they never learn any lessons.

V. The US stocks continued to rise 

A-share rose while HK stocks fell. Non-ferrous metal rose the most while medicine stocks fell the most due to the COVID-19 drug invented by Pfizer. The People’s Bank of China would issue carbon-emission support facility at 1.75% with an estimated amount of RMB 1 trillion. The US stocks continued to rise due to the infrastructure bill passed over the weekend. Infrastructure stocks rallied such as John Deere and Caterpillar.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 长期利率下降

      著名经济学家辜鸿铭在《大衰退—宏观经济学的圣杯》中指出：企业陷入资产负债表衰退时，需用资金还债。长此以往，企业对债务产生厌恶，会患上“债务抵触综合证”。这意味着即使企业已经偿还了债务，也不会去借债。当企业用原本还债的资金进行投资时，需求回升了，但是因为借债需求不足，所以利率下降。这就造成名义国内生产总值的增速超过长期利率。

      贰 下降趋势持续很长时间

      美国曾经在1929年大萧条之后和2000年互联网泡沫破灭后出现过这种现象。而一旦国内生产总值的增速超过长期利率，则需要很长的时间才能逆转这种关系。以美国1929年经济大萧条为例，直到1959年长期利率才回到大萧条之前的水平，也就是花费了整整30年的时间。日本在上世纪90年代的经济衰退之后，也面临长期利率持续低迷的状况。

      叁 量宽并不是好对策

      辜鸿铭指出当经济面临资产负债表衰退时，采用单纯的量化宽松政策是错误的应对方法。他举例子说明：如果一个病人服药病没好，就把药量增加10倍，那病也不会好。从日本的情况看，无论是量化宽松1、2还是安倍的三支箭都没有给经济带来实质的改善。日本经济增速持续处在低位，长期利率也持续下行，30年国债收益率近几年已经下降到1以下，处在历史最低水平。辜鸿铭认为应对资产负债表衰退应采用积极的财政政策，亦即当企业缩小债务规模的同时，政府必需扩大债务规模。这其实和达利奥所说的宽松去杠杆是一致的。

      肆 我国经济增速仍会相对较高

      当前，我国房地产企业类似资产负债表衰退：一方面偿还债务，一方面对土地拍卖不积极。从日本和美国的经历可推断，我国长期利率可能会就此下行，且下行较长时间。但中国经济和美日相比具有较强的韧性，因此经济增速仍然能够保持在相对较高的水平。同时，我国在货币政策方面一直非常克制，而是在财政政策方面发力。这种应对措施有助于企业修复资产负债表。

      伍 上周周期领跌

      A股和港股上周继续下跌，在全球16个主要国家和地区的指数中表现落后。休闲服务、钢铁、采掘和化工跌幅居前。美政府推出1万亿美金的基建刺激计划，10年期美国国债收益率下行。10月非农就业数据超预期，美股连续7个交易日上涨。

I. Long-term interest rate goes down 

In his famous book “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomic Lessons from Japan Great Recession” Richard Koo pointed out that when enterprises are in balance sheet recession, they would use all of their free money to pay back debt and would become reluctant to borrow money in the long run. Once enterprises pay back debt, they would use the free money to invest and GDP would go up with demand coming back. But long-term interest rate would come down as demand for loans would still be maintained at low levels. 

II. The down trend would go for a long time 

As a result, GDP growth rate would be higher than long-term interest rate. This happened in the US in the Great Depression in 1929 and internet bubbles in 2000. Take the example of the Great Depression long-term interest rate did not come back to pre-depression levels until 1959, i.e., it took 30 years to reverse the down trend of interest rate. Japan was also faced with low interest rate from the depression in the 1990s. 

III. Fiscal policy is the right way

Richard considered active fiscal policy as the right way to deal with balance sheet recession rather than quantitative easing. What happened in Japan illustrated that whether quantitative easing one, two or the three arrows of Abe did not improve economy substantially. Japan’s economy has been at low growth rate for years. So is long-term interest rate.

IV. A different recession

China’s property sector is at similar situation of balance sheet recession. While long-term interest rate would go down China’s GDP growth rate would be at relatively high-levels compared with the developed nations. Moreover, China adopts active fiscal policy to stimulate economy, which as mentioned above is the right way to help businesses to repair their balance sheets and stimulate demand.

V. Cyclical sectors fell the most

Both A-share and HK stocks fell last week and lagged behind the sixteen global major indexes. The cyclical sectors fell the most while fishery and farming,electronics and telecommunication sector rose the most. The US infrastructure bill valued at US$ 1 trillion passed in the congress and the 10-year treasury yield came down. The non-farm payroll data in October came in better than expected. The US stocks rose for 7 trading days in a row.  

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 看得见的手

      小艾尔弗雷德·钱德勒在其著名的《看得见的手》中指出：管理协调这只“看得见的手”，相比市场协调这只“看不见的手”而言，能够带来巨大的生产力和丰厚的利润，能够提高资本的竞争力，管理的变革会引发生产和消费的显著提高。这也就是钱德勒所谓的“企业的管理革命”。

      贰 技术促进企业管理演变

      钱德勒认为斯普林菲尔德兵工厂是19世纪30年代具有现代工厂管理形式的少数企业。该兵工厂通过周密的检查和会计核算保证其内部100多个专业工种可以高效生产枪支。现代工厂管理并不是现代企业管理。真正的现代企业管理是伴随着铁路和电报的出现而出现的。这些行业大量雇佣专职经理人员来协调、管理和评估分散在各地的营业单位的工作。这种伴随科技进步而提升的组织能力又进一步促进了财富的创造。

      叁 高科技行业中的企业管理

      钱德勒在高技术行业的研究中，钱德勒将“组织能力”概念进一步深化，强调基于三种知识类型—技术、功能和管理的组织能力。在钱德勒的语境中，现代企业的成功越来越多地依靠以技术和功能为基础的“综合学习能力”，这并非说管理变得不再重要，而是在分部制管理结构和经理人地位确立后，管理不再是企业进行竞争的一个主要变量。在钱德勒看来，当代高科技企业的发展在于综合学习能力的获得和维持。获得了综合学习能力，企业就能在市场竞争中获胜，否则就会被淘汰。

      肆 元宇宙和企业管理

      最近火爆的元宇宙其实在一定意义上也是现代企业管理制度伴随科技进步而做出的演变，以虚实融合的方式改变现有社会的组织与运作。虽然每次科技进步所带来的改变都不能准确遇见，但是未来公司的组织方式将会超越空间的限制是元宇宙能够带来的确定的变化。这种变化会对公司运作产生那些深刻的影响呢？脸书和微软等全球互联网龙头以及英伟达等高科技企业在元宇宙方面的努力推进也许会让我们更早地看到结果。

      伍 股市上涨

      A股和港股均上涨，但量能并未有效放大。A股食品、调味料等消费品板块涨幅领先，受到产品调价的消息的刺激。英格兰银行维持利率在低水平，欧洲股市上涨。美股连续第六个交易日上涨。欧佩克决议保持当前原油产出水平，油价上涨。

I. The visible hand 

Alfred Chandler pointed out in his famous book --“The visible hand” that enterprise management and coordination can improve productivity,create big fortune and increase competitive advantages of capital invested. As market mechanism is called “the invisible hand”, Chandler called enterprise management and coordination "the visible hand". 

II. Modern enterprise management 

Modern factory management rooted in Springfield Arms Factory, which introduced check system and accounting to ensure more than 100 specialized workers to produce arms efficiently. The modern factory management does not equal to modern enterprise management, which came when railway and telegraph came into use. Companies in these two sectors hired professionals to coordinate, manage and evaluate many branches located in different places in the US. The capabilities of organization that come along with technology improvement help create social fortune. 

III. Enterprise management in high-tech sectors

Chandler also studied the capabilities oforganization in high-tech sectors and concluded that the capabilities of organization in technology, function and management make difference for high-tech companies. Recently metaverse has become hot worldwide. Metaverse can be seen as social organization evolves with technology combining real and virtual world together. 

IV. Metaverse 

Every new technology would make the world change profoundly, which can not be foreseen at the beginning. With internet giants such as Meta and Microsoft and technology pioneer like Nvidia devoting into metaverse, we might soon see the big change at work and in our daily life.

V. Stocks rose  

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Food and beverage sector led the rally boosted by the news of various product price increase.The Bank of England maintained interest rate at the current low level. The US stocks rose for six days in a row. OPEC maintained current output plan and oil prices rose.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 11月上涨概率大

      A股市场十月份下跌后，11月份也延续下跌态势。上证指数11月三个交易日下跌了1.4%。在余下的两个月时间里，A股是涨还是跌呢？我们统计了A股从1990年至今的走势。以上证指数为例：从1990年至今31年间，11月A股上涨的年份为17个，下跌的年份为14个。所以，11月A股上涨的概率还是大于下跌的概率。

      贰 牛市会暴涨

      其中涨幅超过10%的年份分别是1991年、1992年、1993年、2006年和2014年。1991年到1993年是中国证券市场的初期，市场暴涨暴跌是个常态，月度涨跌幅都较大。2006年处于牛市中，当年上证指数上涨了130%。2014年是牛市启动的年份，当年11月港股通开通，外资开始大规模流入A股市场。下跌超过10%的年份是1995年和2007年。1995年全年上证指数下跌14.3%，主要应是受到亚洲金融危机的影响。从2007年10月，受到次贷危机的影响，全球股市从牛市转为熊市。

      叁 12月表现不如11月

      从1991年以来，12月份上涨的年份14个，下跌的年份16个。因此，12月份总体表现不如11月份。其中1991年、2006年、2012年和2014年月度涨幅超过10%。1991年、2006年和2014年上涨的原因与11月份是一样的。2012年12月前上证指数持续下跌，但到了12月份因为经济数据好于预期，同时中央经济数据召开，市场对政策预期等因素导致市场情绪逆转。12月份上证指数跌幅超过10%的年份分别在1993年、1995年和1996年。1993年应还是因为市场初期的暴涨暴跌。1995到1996年应是受到亚洲金融危机的影响。

      肆 暴涨暴跌概率低

      从历史推断，今年11月发生较大跌幅的概率不高，同样12月份大涨大跌的概率也较小。但不能排除外部风险对A股的冲击，如1995-96年和2007年。另外政策如果超预期也会引发市场上涨，如2012年。

      伍 美联储如期开启债券缩减

      A股和港股均探底回升，小幅收跌。A股新能源板块受到某光伏企业的负面消息影响而调整。恒生指数七连跌，接近10月初创下的年初以来低点。无论A股还是港股都明显缩量，调整应接近尾声。美联储宣布11月份开始缩减债券购买计划，同时强调现在不考虑加息。美股持续上涨。从1950年至今，有8个年份美股从年初到10月份上涨超过20%之后，11月和12月都继续上涨，平均上涨幅度6.2%。

I. Stocks performed better in November than in December 

In 31 years from 1990 when China set up its stock exchanges, Shanghai Composite Index (SCOMP) rose in November in 17 years and fell in in November in 14 years. SCOMP rose in December in 14 years and fell in December in 16 years.In a word, stocks in China performed better in November than in December. 

II. Stocks are likely to rise in November in bull years

There are five years when SCOMP rose more than 10%, which are 1991, 1992, 1993, 2006 and 2014. The market was very volatile at the beginning, which were the reasons behind more than 10% rally in November 1992-1993. A-share was in a bull market, which was the reason why SCOMP rose more than 10% in 2006. In November 2014 Shanghai-connect began and international investors poured money into A-share. 

III. Stocks crashed when hit by outside shocks

There were only two years that saw stocks fall more than 10% in November, which were 1995 and 2007.In 1995 Asian Financial Crises began and the subprime crises began to spread in 4Q2007. For December there are 4 years that saw stocks rise more than 10%,which are 1991, 2006, 2012 and 2014. The rally in 1991, 2006 and 2014 are the same as with November. In 2012 the broad market continued to fall before December. And due to that economic data came in better than expected and market expectation of policy support market sentiment turned positive. 

IV. This year there might be no rally or crash 

From history we judge that it would be hard for A-share to rally or crash in the rest two months of this year. But there are possibilities of outside shocks, which mightcause market to crash or more policy support, which can support market rally.  

V. Taper comes 

Both A-share and HK stocks fell on contracted volume. Hang Seng Index fell for seven trading days in a row.  The Federal Reserve announced taper as expected. The US stocks continued to rise. In the eight periods since 1950 where stocks were up more than 20% through October, as they are this year, the S&P 500 tacked on additional gains by year end 100% of the time with an average gain of 6.2%.ADP report showed that October private job creation was the best month since June.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。