壹 涨价传导到消费终端

      今年投资人听到最多的一个词恐怕就是“涨价”。水泥企业涨价之后化工企业涨价，涨价的理由都是原材料上涨。进入四季度，我们看到价格压力终于传导到消费品，消费品企业开始涨价，从酱油到调味料，从啤酒到食用油。

      贰价格压力传导需要时间

      这背后对应的月度同比涨幅处在历史高点的生产者价格指数向消费者价格指数的传递。但是由于猪肉价格仍在相对低位，消费者价格指数的同比涨幅仍然较低。我国9月份消费者价格指数同比上涨0.7%，为4月以来的最低同比涨幅，主要是受到猪肉价格下跌的拖累。而生产者价格指数同比涨幅为10.7%，为1996年有数据以来的最高值。价格上涨通常需要半年时间从生产端转到终端消费者。因此，年初以来的原材料价格上涨现在传导到了消费品企业。

      叁 涨价不一定带来净利润的提高

      涨价对企业不一定是有益的。如果企业所处行业的竞争格局比较好，涨价通常不会对产品的销量产生负面影响。因此，涨价就会增加企业的净利润。而如果企业所处的竞争格局较差，则涨价通常会导致销量下降，导致企业得不偿失。曾经有一家卫生用品生产企业，在纸浆价格大幅上涨后提高卫生纸价格。但是卫生纸这种产品同质性较高，品牌效应较低，因此涨价导致其产品销量的下降。

      肆 必需消费品涨价通常比较成功

      必需消费品通常提价会产生积极的效果，主要原因是这些产品的品牌力较强，消费者也不会在意价格的小幅提升。而且这些企业涨价的形式也是多种多样的，可以通过换包装（如从大包装换到小包装）或者开发出新产品等方式变相提高产品价格。对于客户是企业的生产企业，他们的产品价格通常随着原材料价格的变动而变动。因此，对于这些企业而言，涨价是有周期的。但对必需消费品企业而言，涨价通常能够持久。这背后主要是由于随着个人可支配收入的提高，消费者寻求更有品质的生活。

      伍 美国公司涨价能力更强

      A股和港股下跌。A股28个行业中6个上涨，22个下跌。其中休闲服务、钢铁和采掘跌幅居前。而国防军工、农林牧渔和汽车涨幅居前。港股连续6天下跌。疫情加剧增加了投资人对中国4季度经济增长的担忧，同时某地产商爆出债务问题也打击了投资者的风险偏好。但A股总体市场没有泡沫，下行空间有限。3季报显示美国上市公司基本都能够传导原材料上涨的压力，业绩超预期。美股再创新高。

I. Price increase in consumer sectors 

The most frequently mentioned words in 2021 should be price increase. Price increase has happened in various sectors. Before 4Q2021 price increase happened in mid-stream sectors such as petrochemical sector and cement sector etc. Now when it comes to the 4th quarter price increase happened in consumption sectors such as soy sauce, beer, etc. 

II. It takes time for price increase to be transmitted 

The reason is that Producer’s Price Index rose 10.7% year-on-year (yoy) in October, the fastest increase from 1996 when the data began to be released. Consumer’s Price Index rose 0.7% yoy in October due to the continuously falling swine prices. It usually takes half a year or 9 months for the price increase to be transmitted from producers' side to consumers' side. As raw material prices began to increase at the beginning of this year now the price increase has transmitted to consumers products. 

III. Results might differ

The results of products’ price differ from companies. Those companies in a relatively good competitive landscape would enjoy price increase as their products’ sales volume would not be hurt by price increase. For those companies that in very competitive sectors products’ price increase would hurt sales volume. As a result companies would be faced with less profit after products’ price increase. This happened to a well-known hygiene products producer more than 10 years ago. The company raised its toilet paper prices pressured by high-flying paper pulpprices. But toilet paper products do not differ too much from one brand to another. And the price increase pushed consumers to buy other brands at lower prices.

IV. Consumer stables companies usually enjoy price increase 

In general consumer stables can enjoy price increase due to their strong brand names. The rising disposable income of consumers make them look for better quality of life and support price increases of stables.

V. The US companies can transmit raw material prices pressure well 

Both A-share and HK stocks fell.Market is concerned about the economy prospects and cyclical fell sharply. But A-share’s valuation in general has no bubbles, which means that the broad market does not have much room to fall. The US stocks reached another record high boosted by better-than-expected 3Q earnings.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 回顾2013年

      市场对于即将到来的美联储缩减债券购买规模到底计入了多少呢？2013年5月23日，时任美联储主席伯南克在国会作证时表示将择机削减债券购买规模。此消息对市场无异于一个惊雷，导致了“缩减恐慌”：美国国债收益率上涨，债券价格下跌，全球股市调整。

      贰 债市已经反应缩减行动

      美国10年期国债收益率2013年5月23日为2.02%，到美联储宣布缩减债券购买计划前的12月初上涨2.81%，7个月的时间上涨了接近80个基点。而此次美国国债收益率从7月份最低1.19%上涨到10月份最高1.68%，上涨幅度为49个基点，为上一次缩减债券购买规模的一半以上。考虑到此次美联储与市场沟通很充分，基本可以认为美国国债市场反应了缩减债券规模所带来的冲击。

      叁 美股当前估值较高

      从股市的表现看，美国道琼斯工业指数2013年50次创出历史新高，全年累计涨幅为26.5%。缩减债券购买在2013年并未对美股造成重大冲击。今年美股表现也非常靓丽。年初至今，道琼斯、标普500和纳斯达克指数分别上涨17.6%、22.8%和20.4%，无数次创出历史新高。相比2013年，当前美股的主要风险是估值较高。2013年12月初， 道琼斯指数的静态市盈率为15.4倍，而当前为25.6倍，处在历史上的较高水平。如果将当前较低的利率水平考虑进来，按照2013年12月份的风险溢价，则估值水平应为19.3倍。当前估值较19.3倍高32.6%，这有可能是美股面临的一个风险。

      肆 对发展中国家冲击会较小

      发展中国家在此次美联储缩减债券购买规模之前都未雨绸缪，纷纷加息以防止资本外逃对股市和债市的冲击。从美元指数看，对比2013年，当前美元指数处在相对较高水平。2013年5月美元指数在80上下。美联储在2014年中结束债券购买之后，美元指数一路上行到100以上。而当前美元指数在94左右，上行空间虽然存在，但相比2013年空间较小。因此，美联储收缩流动性对发展中国家造成的冲击会减少。

      伍 关税降低提上日程

      A股和港股下跌。10月财新制造业采购经理人指数重回扩张区间，由需求复苏所带动。美股再创新高。美国财长耶伦认为中美将会以互惠的方式降低关税，并认为这有利于降低美国通胀。受此消息影响，港股夜期大幅上涨。

I. Revisit 2013

With the tapering on the way, how much has market priced in this event? Let’s revisit the first taper in history which happened in 2013. On May 23rd, 2013 the Fed Chairman Bernanke said that the Federal Reserve was considering taper when he testified before the congress. This caused taper tantrum as treasury yield went up and stocks fell sharply in the world. 

II. Bond market has priced in the taper

On May 23rd 2013,10-year Treasury yield was 2.02%. It rose to 2.82% at the beginning of December 2013 before the Fed announced taper, i.e., up 80 basis point in 7 months. The 10-year treasury yield was 1.19% in July this year and rose to 1.68% in October,up 48 basis point and more than half of that in 2013 taper during the comparable period. As the Fed communicated taper much better than in 2013, we believe that this time the bond market has priced in taper enough.

III. High valuation might be a risk to stock market

In 2013 the US stocks performed well with Dow Jones Index reaching historical high for 50 times and up 26.5% for the full year. This year the US stocks also performed well with Dow Jones up 17.6% year-to-date. Compared with 2013 valuation of the US stocks is at a high level. Dow is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6x versus 15.4x in December 2013. Taking the low interest rate into consideration Dow should be valued at 19.6x, meaning that current valuation is 32.6% higher than 2013. This might pose some risks. 

IV. Emerging nations have prepared well

The US dollar index was around 80 in May 2013 versus 94 nowadays. Given the relatively high levels of the US dollar index, the US dollar should not strengthen as much as in 2013 and caused capital outflow in the emerging nations this time. Moreover, as many as 15 nations increased their benchmark interest rate to deal with the likely capital outflow once the Fed withdraws liquidity. In short, taper is in the price.

V. Cutting tariff is on agenda

A-share and HK stocks fell. Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was back to expansion region at 50.6%, boosted by demand recovery. The US stocks reached another record high. The US Minister of Finance Yellen said that the US and China should reach a deal to cut tariff in a reciprocal way.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 酒价下跌

      周末有报道称某高端白酒终端价格下降，因年初执行的开箱售卖政策可能生变。该高端白酒因收藏者众多，而整箱售卖的白酒比起单瓶酒更易储存和易鉴别真假，因此整箱的单瓶价格比开箱售卖的单瓶价格高300元左右。该公司政策变化之快确实超出预期。但投机资金之前助推该高端白酒价格上涨也是酒价下跌的一个重要原因。

      贰 有些购买不是为了消费

      我们在“茅股”崩盘背后曾经指出过，该高端白酒被购买后一部分并没有进入消费，而是被储存起来了。有一部分可能是真的存起来作日后消费之用，但还有一些是通过加杠杆购买的，购买者期望日后酒价上涨从而获取较高收益。如果酒价下跌，则这些加杠杆的资金就不得不忍痛抛售，毕竟资金是有成本的。

      叁 蝴蝶效应

      而推动酒价下跌的原因可能与该高端白酒的基本面并无太大关系。据报道该白酒收藏者中的一些地产开发商因资金紧张而抛出大量存货，从而推动百酒价格下降。所以，看上去似乎是因为一个行业出问题而波及了另一个不相干的行业。但经济中各个行业都有千丝万缕的联系，蝴蝶效应其实在经济中并不少见。在经济上行期，我们能看到一荣俱荣；经济下行期，就是一损俱损。

      肆 总体市场没有泡沫

      投资人需特别警惕那些有泡沫的领域，这些领域通常是人群聚集的地方，在经济下行期也易发生风险事件。A股市场总体估值较低，不存在泡沫。上证指数在2021年10月29日（下同）的静态市盈率为13.7倍，处于历史上18.4%的分位；深成指静态市盈率为26.9倍，处在历史上58.4%的分位。深成指估值相对较高主要是因为创业板估值较高。创业板指静态市盈率为63.3倍，处在历史上80.2%的分位。从估值角度看，创业板指可能存在一定的风险。创业板指前十大权重股中部分个股3季度业绩低于预期，如这些个股基本面持续不佳可能会拖累板块表现。

      伍 美股上周表现佳

      上周全球16个主要国家和地区指数上周涨跌各一半。其中恒生指数下跌2.9%，跌幅最大；上证指数和深成指分别下跌0.3%和1%。3季报部分公司业绩不及预期，导致A股和港股调整。纳斯达克指数、法国指数和标普500分别上涨2.7%、1.4%和1.3%，表现最佳。美股业绩超预期，推动股市上行。10月中国官方制造业采购经理人指数继续下滑至49.2，表明经济仍在下行中。

I. Liquor prices fell 

It was reported that prices of a high-end liquor went down sharply lately, which was partly due to that its company allowed the liquor to be sold inboxes. From the beginning of 2021 till now this company did not allow the liquor to be sold in boxes hoping to curb its prices. But due to that the liquor is more easily stored, sold and certified in boxes, a bottle of liquor in boxes costs RMB 300 more than those sold in bottles. 

II. Speculation is playing a key role

As we analyzed in “The crash of those high-flying stocks “茅股”崩盘背后” this high-end liquor is not only bought for consumption but also for speculation. Some investors even leveraged to buy the liquor in hope for the prices to  go up further and make money. With the prices down these investors likely were forced to sell the liquor as their leverages became a burden. 

III. Butterfly effect 

It was also reported that some property developers sold the liquor as they were faced with liquidity crunch. While this seems to be a butterfly effect it is not unusual in economy as all things link together. One sector rises with other sectors when economy goes up and vice versa when economy goes down. 

IV. No bubbles in broad market 

At this moment investors should take some caution in those areas with bubbles. There seems to be no bubbles in the broad market: Shanghai Composite Index is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTWPE) of 13.5x and at 18.3% percentile in about 30 years. But Chinext Board is valued at 63.3x at 80.2% percentile in history, which looks risky. Some top-10 weighting stocks in Chinext Board missed on 3Q2021 earnings. If their fundamentals deteriorate further then Chinext Board might suffer Davis double-killing.

V. The US stocks performed the best  

Both A-share and HK stocks fell last week due to the weaker-than-expected earnings in 3Q2021.  Hang Seng Index in HK market fell 2.9% and was the worst-performing index among global 16 major stock indexes. The US stocks led the global markets due to better-than-expected earnings in 3Q2021. China official Purchasing Managers’ Index in October came in at 49.2%, reflecting that China’s economy is still sliding. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 热门公司业绩低于预期

      本周A股跌幅较大，究其原因是上市公司3季报低于预期。3季报还有两天就全部披露结束。截止10月28日，一些基金持仓的热门股3季度业绩大幅低于市场预期。比如某新能源汽车龙头企业，3季度收入同比上涨21.98%，但扣非净利润同比下跌67%，主要原因应是上游原材料价格上涨导致毛利率下降。该公司3季度毛利率为12.97%，较去年同期毛利率20.75%下降了7.78个百分点。这种征收不增利的现象在中游制造业比较普遍。另外一家锂电池龙头企业3季度收入同比增长125.9%，而净利润仅同比增长23.7%。

      贰 原材料涨幅巨大

      生产锂电池的原料今年以来涨幅巨大。华东地区工业级碳酸锂价格去年底为5万元每吨，当年上涨12.6%。而2021年10月28日，华东地区工业级碳酸锂价格上涨到180600元每吨，较去年底上涨了261%。碳酸锂占锂电池原材料成本的50%，而锂电池又占电动车成本的50%。因此，碳酸锂价格的上涨推动了锂电池和电动车成本的上涨。除了碳酸锂，其他动力电池原材料也涨幅巨大，比如钴的价格从2020年底的279,000元一吨上涨到400,000元一吨，涨幅高达43%。

      叁 周期性因素

      除了原材料价格上涨之外，导致企业业绩低于预期的还有周期性因素。比如某机械龙头企业，三季度实现营业收入205.9亿元，同比下降13.14%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为24.93亿元，同比下降35.32%。公司认为净利润下滑主要受国内下游需求走弱以及去年高基数影响。随着国内经济进入下行周期，今年以来挖掘机销量持续同比负增长。

      叁 制造业大而不强

      2019年我国制造业占GDP比例为27.2%，中游制造业受到原材料成本冲击较大，且不易传导。同样是面临原材料上涨的冲击，美国制造业企业的业绩仍然靓丽。以上述机械行业的美国龙头企业为例，其2021年3季度收入和净利润分别同比上涨21.8%和96.9%。3季报在一定程度上反应了我国制造业离高端化仍有一定距离，大而不强。

      肆 超预期的行业

      也有一些公司的业绩超预期，如上游原材料行业和大金融行业。原材料行业受益于产品价格上涨；而银行业业绩增速较快，一方面是去年业绩的低基数，另一方面受益于财富管理、信用卡等手续费收入的增长。展望未来，热门板块因业绩不及预期有可能进行调整，但一些冷门板块如银行等可能会受到资金的青睐，表现强于大势。

      伍 美大型科技公司业绩不及预期

      A股和港股连续第三天下跌。煤炭板块持续大跌。美股上涨，标普500 和纳斯达克创出历史新高。亚马逊和苹果3季报都不及预期，股价在盘后交易时间大跌。

I. Some companies' earnings came in lower than expected 

A-share has corrected recently due to that some companies’ 3rd quarter earnings came in lower than expected. Take the example of a leading new energy vehicle producer. Its revenue in 3Q2021 rose 21.98% year-on-year (yoy) while net profit excluding one-time items fell 67% yoy. Its gross margin in 9M2021 fell from 20.75% in 9M2020 to 12.97% in 9M2021, down 7.78 percentage point. A leading electric battery manufacturer also saw its revenue in 3Q2021 up 125.9% yoy but net profit only rose 23.7% yoy. 

II. High-flying raw material costs

The reason is due to high-flying raw material costs. Lithium carbonate price was RMB 50k per ton at the end of 2020 and now rose to 180.6k per ton, up 261%. Lithium carbonate takes 50% of raw material cost in making an electric battery while an electric battery takes 50% of total costs in manufacturing an electric vehicle. Along with lithium carbonate, other raw materialsin making an electric battery also rose fast. The prices of cobalt, which is also an essential raw material in making electric batteries, rose from RMB 279k per ton at the end of 2020 to 400k per ton now, up 43%.

III. Cyclical factor

Another reason is that cyclical sectors are faced with downward pressure when economy is going down.Take the example of a leading machinery player in China. Its revenue and net profit was down 13.14% and 35.12% yoy respectively in 3Q2021 due to the cyclical downward trend in demand for its products and the high base in 3Q2020. 

IV. Big yet not strong

In 2019 manufacturing sectors took 27.2% of China’s GDP. Earnings in 3Q2021 of listed companies reflect that our manufacturing sectors are not as strong as expected and find it difficult to pass the rising costs to end-users. 

V. Sectors that earnings beat

There are some sectors that earnings came in better-than-expected such as raw material sector and banking sector. Raw material sector benefited from the rising raw material prices. The banking sector’s earnings rose on a low base in 3Q2020. Moreover,its non-interest income rose fast due to the asset management businessesflourish. But these sectors are not hot sectors in A-share.

VI. The American big tech companies' earnings missed

Both A-share and HK stocks fell. SP 500 and Nasdaq rose to record high. But both Amazon and Apple’s 3Q2021 earnings missed and stocks down in extended trading hours. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 渗透率达到10%

      产品或服务的渗透率与行业的生命周期紧密相关。在渗透率从0-10%的时候，行业处在初创期。这一阶段行业增速呈现直线式上升。一旦达到10%的渗透率，行业就进入快速成长期。10%常常被视为需求爆发的临界点，英文叫做critical mass。

      贰 新能源汽车

      以新能源汽车为例：从2009年我国发布《汽车产业调整和振兴规划》，正式启动对新能源汽车的补贴，到2015年我国新能源汽车渗透率首次突破1%，用了6年；从2015年1%的渗透率到2019年的4.7%渗透率，用了四年。2020年虽然有疫情的阻碍，但新能源汽车渗透率仍然提升到5.8%。截止2021年9月底，新能源汽车市场渗透率为17.3%，新能源乘用车市场渗透率达到19.5%。也就是说，从5.8%到近20%的渗透率只用了大半年的时间。

      叁 仍将保持快速增长

      有市场参与者预计到2025年新能源汽车渗透率将达到50%，也即行业可以在未来四年内增长2.5倍以上，年复合增速约为37%。虽然和今年的增速不可同日耳语，但也是很快的增速。2020年下半年，中国纯电的乘用车市场开始进入一个爆发期，并呈现与过去不一样的驱动力。2020年之前，中国电动车的销量增长主要是靠运营车辆，包括出租车、网约车等，这些车辆使用电动车可拿到新能源汽车补贴。但2020年补贴退坡以后，个人购车的需求大大幅提升，也即新能源汽车行业的增长驱动力变成了个人消费，这反而给行业发展提供了坚实持久的动力。

      肆 40%的渗透率

      当一个行业的渗透率达到40%后，行业进入成熟期。这一阶段行业增速逐渐变慢，竞争加剧，新进入者抢夺头部企业的市场份额，行业的利润率出现拐点。这一阶段尽管企业的盈利仍然增长，但已开始了戴维斯双杀中的杀估值阶段。当企业盈利开始下滑后，就开始杀盈利阶段。历史上有很多企业在其产品渗透率达到40%之际，股票市值也达到高点，如中移动和诺基亚，都是在全国手机和全球手机渗透率达到40%的时候达到市值高点。根据新能源汽车的增速和渗透率，行业进入戴维斯双杀的时间可能并不遥远。

      伍 全球股市调整

      A股和港股下跌。港股科技指数在连续上涨后三连跌，疑为获利资金了解。煤炭板块跌幅居前，国家拟对煤炭行业征收暴利税。美股从高位滑落。

I. Penetration rate and sector's development stages  

Penetration rate of a product or service is correlated closely with sector development stages. When the penetration rate goes from 0%to 10%, the sector growth is the fastest. This stage is called the initial stage of a sector. 10% is usually called critical mass. After the penetration rate reaches 10% the sector goes into growth stage. 

II. New energy vehicle sector

Take the example of new energy vehicle (NEV) sector. In 2009 China issued the Plan for auto sector adjustment and development and began to subsidize new energy vehicles. By 2015 NEV’s penetration rate reached 1%, meaning that it took six years for penetration rate to increase from 0% to 1%. It took another four years for penetration rate to increase from 1% to 4.7% in 2019. In 2020 penetration rate of NEV reached 5.8%. By September 2021 the penetration rate of NEV reached 17.3% and that of new energy passenger cars reached 19.5%. This implies that it only took a little more than half a year for penetration rate to improve from 5%-plus to nearly 20%. 

III. Fast growth could be maintained 

Some expert in NEV sector predicted that NEV’s penetration rate would reach 50% by 2025,meaning that NEV market would expand by 2.5 times and compound annual growth rate would be around 37%. This is pretty fast. In 2020 when subsidies for NEV went off, Chinese consumers began to buy NEV and are the main driver of the fast growth of NEV sector. 

IV. Development stage

When a sector’s penetration rate reaches 40-50% the sector enters development stage. The sector’s growth rate slows down and sector’s margin becomes thinner due to that the new entrants enhance competition. According to historical experience many technical companies’ market cap reached the top with their products or services’ penetration reaching 40%. A case in point is China Mobile and Nokia, which saw the peak of market cap when China’s and global mobile phone penetration rate reached 40% respectively. It seems that it would not take too much time for NEV’s penetration rate to reach 40%.

V. Stocks corrected

Both A-share and HK stocks fell. The Tech stocks in HK market declined for three days in a row. US stocks also slipped from record levels.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹暂时的还是持久的？

      对于通胀是暂时的还是持久的，不同的人有不同的见解。在美国就可以分为赞成派和反对派两大阵营。新债王杰弗瑞·冈拉克认为通胀是持久的，因为居住成本和工资会持续上涨。他预计明年通胀将不会低于4%。这比过去一年5.4%的通胀水平要低一些，但仍高于美联储的通胀平均目标2%。而创新女王凯瑟琳·伍德则认为通胀会在节假日结束后回落。她援引的例子是2008年全球金融危机之后美联储实行了量化宽松。她当时也判断通胀会来，但是并没有。一个原因就是虽然钱放出来了，但是货币流通速度放缓了。这导致实际流通的钱并没有增加。

      贰 货币流通速度持续放缓

      美国M2流通速度在2008年1季度为1.94，那是全球金融危机发生之前，而到2019年底则下降到了1.44。新冠危机之后美联储大幅放水，货币流通速度在2020年2季度下降到了1.1的水平，之后一直维持在这一水平。我国的情况与美国类似。我国货币乘数在2008年全球金融危机之后趋势性走高，从2008年初的3.82上升到2018年年底的5.52，2019年进一步上升到6.13。随着新冠危机的爆发，我国央行也在2020年2季度释放了流动性，货币乘数在2020年7月份上升到7.15，之后在这一水平上下波动至今。货币乘数与流通速度成反比例关系。货币乘数上升意味着流通速度降低，反之亦然。

      叁 科技推动通胀下行

      中美两国货币流通速度下降具体原因比较复杂，对此的很多讨论都没有定论。但杠杆率的提升可以算作一个因素。科技是推动通胀下行的力量，新型支付工具提升了货币流通速度。人工智能的成本以每年40-70%的速度下降，这种惊人的科技力量将推动通胀水平持续走低。对于新债王而言，通胀上升而利率无法及时跟上，则实际利率将维持在负区间。这对债券投资并非好事情。而在凯瑟琳的眼中，任何不能创新的企业都是通缩的来源，是价值陷阱。只有科技进步才能创造价值。如果将工资和居住成本等看成是影响通胀的看得见的力量，那科技就是影响通胀的隐藏的力量。

      肆 美股新高

      A股和港股下跌。美股再创新高。美联储下周将宣布缩减债券购买规模。法国巴黎银行分析师预计在通胀高涨的背景下，美联储明年夏季将会紧急加息，到年底加息四次，每次25个基点。当前美股估值没有反应这一可能性。

I. Transient or lasting? 

The discussions on whether inflation is transient or persisting has been on and on. Different people have different opinions. Jefferey Gundlach, billionaire bond investor, believed that inflation in consumer prices likely will remain elevated through 2021 and stay above 4% through at least 2022 due to rising shelter costs and wages. But Cathie Wood,the famous innovation investor, believed that from her own experience inflation would not come. She thought that inflation would come off in 2008-09 when the Fed started quantitative easing. But she was wrong. Instead, velocity-the rate at which money turns over per year - declined, taking away its inflationary sting.

II. Velocity still is falling. 

Velocity of M2 in the US was 1.94 in 1Q2008 and fell to 1.44 by the end of 2019. As the Federal Reserve printed a lot of money after the COVID-19 crises the velocity of M2 fell to 1.1 in 2Q2020 and maintained at this level from then on. The same happened in China. China’s M2 multiplier was 3.82 at the beginning of 2008 and rose to 5.52 by the end of 2018. It further climbed to 6.13 in 2019. In 2020 the People’s Bank of China released liquidity to deal with the COVID-19 crises. And M2 multiplier rose to 7.15 in July 2020 and has been up and down around this level since then. Velocity and money multiplier are inversely correlated. The rising money multiplier means that velocity of money is becoming smaller and smaller.Some owes the slowdown of money turning over to gearing ratio increase. 

III.Technology pushes inflation down

But technology improvement promotes money turn over faster such as the new payment instruments including Wechat payment and Alipay, etc. Furthermore, the cost of intelligence artificial will decrease at 40-70% per year. This would also push inflation down.If we consider shelter costs and wages etc as the obvious power to influence inflation, then technology is a hided power to have an impact on inflation.

IV. The US stocks reached record levels

Both A-share and HK stocks fell.The US stocks rallied to another record levels boosted by major technology companies’ better earnings. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。