壹 新股破发

      A股市场近期不断有新股破发。一是科创板和创业板上市的新股估值过高，有些个股定价在几十倍的市盈率，远高于行业平均水平，首日破发也是可以理解的；另一方面，也反应了市场当前的热度不足以及IPO项目对市场资金的分流。今年前三季度共有373家企业登陆A股，逼近去年全年新股数394家，有业内人士称今年新股数有望达到500家，再创新纪录。如果新股破发的现象持续，相信管理层会对IPO节奏进行调整。港股市场一直是全球IPO前几位的市场。如果市场低迷，做承销业务的投行将会与拟上市公司沟通，选择更好的时间窗口进行IPO，这样可以获得更好的定价。相信随着A股市场注册制的不断推进，国内的券商也会帮助上市公司选择较好的时间窗口进行IPO。近期不仅新股破发，基金募集提前结束或失败的消息也频频见诸报端，显示市场的“冷”正在慢慢扩散。

      贰 热门板块

      另一方面，很多热门板块却屡创新高。周一，受到新能源车强劲增长的带动以及国家发布碳中和碳达峰相关文件的消息刺激，新能源和储能板块大幅上涨。9月单月国内新能车销量35.7万辆，同比增长148.8%，环比增长11.4%，渗透率达17.3%，其中新能源乘用车市场渗透率超过19%。2021年1-9月动力电池累计装机量达92GWH，同比增长169.1%。9月单月装机量达15.7GWh，同比增长138.6%，环比增长25%。今年新能源车的增速超出市场预期，A股相关板块也表现靓丽。但其中一些股票的估值在三位数市盈率，利好应已经在股价中。

      叁 行业表现

      市场冷与热的鲜明对照还体现在行业的表现上。年初至今（截止2021年10月25日），A股28个行业中12个上涨，16个下跌。其中涨幅最高的三个板块采掘、电气设备和有色金属分别上涨53.3%、51.7%和43.3%，而跌幅最大的三个板块家用电器、非银金融和传媒分别下跌21.7%、17.7%和17.1%。我们在翻倍股和腰斩股中分析过股价过热后就会回调，而股价跌幅较大后也存在反弹的需求。

      肆 美股新高

      A股上涨而港股下跌。美股再创新高，美国国债收益率大幅走低。

I. IPOs do not perform well 

The IPO debut recently has been lackluster. One reason is that for those to be listed in Chinext and STAR Board they were priced too high. Some of them were issued at 60-70x price-to-earnings ratio, much higher than their sectors’ valuation levels. Another reason is that market seems not as hot as previously. By the end of 3rd quarter there were 373 companies got listed in A-share, which is close to 394 in 2020. It is estimated that 500 companies would be got listed in A-share this year. We deem that supervising agencies might cut the numbers of IPOs if market continues to perform poorly.In HK market underwriting investment banks for IPOs would communicate with companies if market turns negative. This is what an underwriter should do under the registration system. We believe that in the future Chinese brokerages would also do the same thing. By 18th September 22 mutual funds failed to raise enough funds and could not be set up. 

II. Hot sectors

But on the other hand,some hot sectors have notched new highs. Sales volume in new energy vehicles in September reached 357000, up 148.8% year-on-year and 11.4% month-on-month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 17.3% and that of new energy passenger cars has reached 19%. Moreover, the central government issued a new document on carbon neutral and carbon emission peak. The new energy sector rallied on Monday on these two pieces of news. Yet some stocks’ valuation is hefty and it might have priced in all of the good news. 

III. Sector performance diverged

The hotness and coolness of A-share is also reflected in sector performance year-to-date. Among the 28 sectors 12 sectors rose while the remaining 16 sectors fell. The top three best-performing sectors are mining, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal, which rose 53.3%,51.7% and 43.3% respectively. While the three worst-performing sectors are home appliance, non-bank financials and media, which fell 21.7%,17.7%and 17.1%. But things might change with time passing by.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 食品在消费者价格指数中占比最高

      近期蔬菜价格上涨，有的蔬菜单价已经超过猪肉价格。这会不会对消费者价格指数产生上行压力？在我国消费者价格指数中，食品占比20.9%，是消费者价格指数中占比最高的项目。食品中占比最高的项目是畜肉类，占比5.42%；而其中猪肉占比最高，占消费者价格指数的比例为3.31%。鲜菜是食品项目中占比第二高的，比例为2.48%。

      贰 中美消费者价格指数构成差异

      中国和美国的消费者价格指数构成有较大差异。美国的消费者价格指数中占比最高的是住房价格，占比41.02%，主要指租房价格，其含义跟我国消费者价格指数的居住价格是一致的。其次是交通，占比为16.87%。食品价格占比第三，为15.25%。中美两国消费者价格指数中食品占比差异是经济发展水平所决定的。美国人均可支配收入食品的支出占比不到10%，而我国则接近30%。因此，食品对我国消费者价格指数的影响较大。

      叁 鲜菜上涨的原因

      鲜菜作为食品中第二大权重项，其对消费者价格指数也有较大影响。近期蔬菜价格的上涨一方面是因为原材料价格的上涨传导到了蔬菜种植端，种子和化肥成本上涨增加了种植成本，而油价上涨也增加了运输费。另一方面，个别省份接连遭受水灾，很多叶子菜被雨水泡了烂在地里，造成蔬菜大量减产。今年天气降温也早于往年，造成蔬菜生长缓慢。最后，北方蔬菜退市，也推动了蔬菜价格上涨。蔬菜价格上涨推动消费者价格指数上涨时有发生。

      肆不会对货币政策产生影响

      2020年12月也是因为自然灾害、低温和运输成本增加导致蔬菜价格上涨，使得“白菜价”不再是便宜的代名词。蔬菜价格上涨短期将会推升消费者价格指数，但随着蔬菜供应增加，蔬菜价格就会从高位回落。蔬菜价格真正回到低位恐怕需要到明年2月份，考虑到冬季蔬菜供应少于其他季节，叠加春节之前食品价格均会趋势性上涨。我们认为蔬菜价格上涨也不会对央行的货币政策产生较大影响。一个是因为这是一个短期现象；另外，央行应该更关注核心消费者价格指数，而后者不包括食品价格。核心消费者价格指数与居住成本相关度较大。

      伍 房地产税长期利好股市

      房地产税将会打压投资性需求，推动资金从房地产市场转入股票市场，长期利好股市。美股连涨3周，道指和标普均创出历史新高。标普5003季度业绩预计增长35%。本周大的科技公司包括脸书、谷歌等报告3季报业绩。

I. Vegetable prices have been on a soar recently

Some worry that the rising vegetable prices would cause monetary policy to become stringent. We believe this would not happen. Among China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) foods take the biggest weighting at 20.9%. Meat takes the largest weighting among foods at 5.42% while swine takes the largest weighting at 3.31%. Vegetable takes the second largest weighting among foods at 2.48%. 

II. China and the US CPI weightings are different 

The weighting of China’s CPI is different from that of the US. In the US CPI the largest weighting is residential cost, which mainly refers torental cost. Its weighting is 41.02%. The second largest weighting is transportation costs at 16.87%. Foods take the third largest weighting at 15.25%. The reason of the differences lies in the economic levels. In the US consumer only spends less than 10% of their disposable income on foods compared with close to 30% in China. 

III. Several factors caused vegetable prices to rise 

The vegetable prices increase in China was due to several factors.The first is the rising costs of planting and transportation costs as oil,chemical fertilizer and seeds costs rose with the raw material prices increase.The second is floods in some provinces, which caused vegetables to be flooded and supply shortage. The third one is fast-falling temperature, which made vegetables grow more slowly. The last one is that vegetable supply in the northern part of China came to a close. 

IV. It is not a concern

Rising vegetable prices would push up CPI. But this happens from time to time.The most recent one was last December, when rising transportation costs, low temperature and natural disaster caused vegetable supply shortage. We expect the high vegetable prices to come down with supply increase. But it might maintain at a relatively high level until Feb.2022 as food prices would be on a rising trend before the Spring Festival. China’s monetary policy seems to follow core CPI more closely, which excludes food and energy prices.

V. Property tax would be levied in China

Property tax would push out investment demands for property, which is beneficial for stock markets in the long run. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 对Taper 的担忧

      A股近期走势平平，远不及美股和港股走势靓丽。我们认为一个原因是市场对美联储缩减债券规模有所担心。美联储预计将在11月4日议息会议结束后的新闻发布会上宣布缩减债券购买规模，并从12月份开始实行。近期美国国债收益率持续走高，从9月份最低的1.28%上涨到1.65%，短短一个多月的时间上涨了37个基点。美国国债收益率上涨对A股投资人造成一定的压力，但并没有阻断北上资金投资A股的热情。截止10月21日，北上资金本月净流入84.5亿人民币，延续了年初至今每月都净流入的状态。

      贰 对业绩的担忧

      另外一个原因是对业绩的担忧。截至2021年10月20日，A股已披露上市公司预告数量为1103家，其中周期板块表现较好，有色金属、采掘、化工、钢铁行业已披露上市公司2021Q3利润同比增速为191%、115%、222%、156%。而食品饮料、商业贸易、农林牧渔表现欠佳，业绩同比增速分别为-275%、-129%、-249%。由于预披露的公司业绩同比增速或者超过50%，或者低于50%，一些景气行业预披露的公司代表行业最好的业绩，整体行业的业绩增速应没有预披露的业绩高；而景气度较低的行业的业绩可能也比披露的好。市场预期3季报业绩增速将从2季度的高位回落。受上游原材料价格上涨的影响，中游制造业毛利率受到挤压的现象比较普遍。

      叁 担忧需要时间缓解

      我们认为上游价格有可能较长时间保持在高位，周期股的业绩同比增速也会在3季度和4季度保持在较高水平。因此，中游制造业可能毛利率会持续承压。而下游消费行业因受到经济不景气的影响，业绩很可能在低位徘徊。所以，A股目前面临的问题就是经济下行期，高景气的行业恐怕难以维持欣欣向荣，而景气度较低的行业也需要时间实现业绩的反转。这有可能是市场徘徊不前的另一个原因。而这个问题需要时间去解决。

      肆 美股再创新高

      A股和港股下跌。金融和房地产板块走强。高层认为恒大的风险不会外溢，给市场提供了信心。美国上周申请失业救济人数好于预期，标普500连续7天上涨，创出历史新高。因特斯拉业绩超预期，科技股上涨。美股过去20年，通胀和利润率水平是成正比的。有知名策略分析师认为不应该担忧通胀挤压利润率水平。不过如此高的通胀水平没有对利润率水平构成压力可能也是因为流动性非常充裕。

I. concern about taper 

A-share lagged behind HK market and the US stock market after the National Day holidays. One concern might be taper. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce taper on Nov. 4thand execute in December.The US 10-year Treasury Yield rose from 1.28% in September to 1.65%, i.e., up 37 basis points in one month plus. Yet north-bound capital has maintained net inflow in October so far at RMB 8.45 billion. This year north-bound capital maintained net inflow for every month. 

II. Concern about earnings growth 

The second reason might be concerns about 3rdquarter earnings. By October 20th there were 1105 companies in A share that pre-disclosed 3rd quarter earnings. Cyclical sectors performed well. 3rd quarter earnings in non-ferrous metals, mining, petrochemical, and iron and steel rose 191%、115%、222% and 156% year-on-year (yoy) respectively. While food and beverage, commercial trade, farming and fishery performed poorly. Their earnings grew -275%、-129 and -249% yoy. Pre-disclosure rules only require those companies whose earnings grow more than 50% or decline more than 50% to pre-disclose.Hence, the sector earnings growth might not be that good for cyclicals and bad for those saw big earnings decline.  3rd quarter earnings growth rate is expected to slip from the high growth rate in 2nd quarter. And margin pressure is not unusual, making market nervous.

III. SP 500 reached record high

A-share and HK stocks fell.Financials and property sector rallied as supervising agency considered that Evergrande was a separate case and would not cause risk to spread out. The US initial jobless claim last week was better than expectation. SP 500 reached record high. As Tesla earnings came in better than expected tech stocks rallied. A well-known strategist pointed out that over the last 20 years profit margin of SP 500 correlated positively with inflation. Hence, it is no need to worry about high inflation. Yet that the high inflation can be transmitted might be due to abundant liquidity to some extent.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 港股强劲反弹

      港股10月初以来表现强劲。恒生指数在10月5日触及阶段低点23681.44之后反弹。截止10月20日（下同）累计反弹幅度达到10.7%。国企指数也在10月5日触及阶段低点8359之后反弹，累计反弹幅度接近11%。科技指数从10月5日的低点累计反弹14.9%。

      贰 仍熊冠全球

      尽管短期反弹幅度较大，但是年初至今上述三大指数均是下跌的，恒生指数、国企指数和科技指数分别下跌4%、13.6%和20.6%。今年全球股市表现都较好，下跌的指数很少。因此，国企指数和科技指数应该是熊冠全球。我们在现在可以开始和港股做时间的朋友和港股到底有多惨？中均作为具体分析。

      叁 科技股被低估

      科技股的上涨一方面是中资互联网企业估值被严重低估。腾讯和阿里巴巴2021年市盈率估值分别为25倍和22倍，而美股的FAANG股票中估值最低的脸书为25倍。腾讯和阿里巴巴的业绩增速快于发达国家的对应公司，其估值也应该高于发达国家的相似公司。另一方面，国家对互联网公司的整顿有接近尾声的迹象。

      肆 数字经济战略

      同时，国家重申数字经济战略的重要性，指出要充分发挥海量数据和丰富应用场景优势，促进数字技术与实体经济深度融合，赋能传统产业转型升级，催生新产业新业态新模式。互联网龙头企业因其掌握海量数据以及应用方面的优势将在数字经济中发挥重要作用。摩根士丹利近期重申对阿里巴巴的买入评级，指出阿里巴巴的技术和基础设施是推动中国经济在商业和科学领域数字化的重要力量，预期在合作伙伴生态系统支持下，垂直应用仍是其未来投资的关键领域。阿里云是中国关键技术开发商和数字化推动者，预期业务云边际扩张趋势强劲。我们也认可互联网企业的竞争优势。但随着中国经济增速放缓，互联网企业的业绩可能也会受到一定的影响。政策底已现，业绩底也将不远。

      伍 美股再创历史新高

      A股微跌，港股上涨。人民币对美元继续走强。美股标普500连续6天上涨，道指创出历史新高。美股70%的公司已经报告了3季报业绩，其中86%超市场预期。

I.HK stocks rebounded 

HK stock market bounced strongly from early October. Hang Seng Index, China Enterprises Index and Tech Index rose 10.6%, 11% and 14.9% from the lowest point on 5th October to October 20th. However, the three indexes still registered negative return year-to-date at -4%, -13.6% and -20.6% respectively. As global indexes performed quite well in general, HK market lagged far behind other stock markets. We have analyzed HK market in “It only takes time for HK market to perform现在可以开始和港股做时间的朋友” and “How worse the situation in HK market was?港股到底有多惨？ ”.  

II. Tech stocks got additional boost

For tech stocks there are signs that supervision measures targeted them would come to an end. Moreover, they have got additional boost from national strategy to develop digital economy. Under this strategy further efforts will be needed in building a high-speed, ubiquitous, intelligent, and comprehensive digital information infrastructure that integrates space and ground, and the cloud and the internet. The leading internet players such as Tencent and Alibaba have competitive advantages as they have collected mass data and built infrastructure than can aid in developing digital economy. 

III. Valuation is at low levels 

Also compared with international peers, big internet companies in China are valued at low levels. Tencent and Alibaba are valued at2021 price-to-earnings ratio of 25x and 22x respectively. Facebook is valued atthe lowest level among FAANG stocks at 2021 price-to-earnings ratio of 25x. Companies in developing countries should enjoy valuation premium due to their higher earnings growth rate. 

IV. Wait for earnings bottome to come out

Morgan Stanley recently rated Alibaba BUY rating. It cited reasons that Alibaba’s cloud business would grow strongly and that Alibaba would invest heavily in vertical application. We believe that policy bottom of the tech companies have come out. Yet with China’s economy slowing down these internet companies’ earnings might slow down as well. The bottom of earnings would come out soon. Then internet stocks could regain power to go up.

V. The US stocks reached record high

A-share fell slightly and HK stocks rose.DOW reached another record high. 86% of American companies that released 3rd quarter results have beat expectation.  

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

     壹 降准预期落空 

      虽然中国3季度经济数据低于预期，市场普遍预期的降准并没有发生。我国10年期国债收益率也再次回到了3%以上的水平，反应市场对宽松政策的预期落空之后的估值修正。有很多分析师对此做出了解读，有的认为当前的经济不振的主要原因不是需求侧，而是供给侧。而降准是对需求侧进行刺激，因此不是对症下药。有的认为当前流动性并非不充裕，而是实体需求不足，降准不一定能对实体经济的需求产生较大提振作用。

     贰 推绳子

    我们倾向认为在长期债务周期的后期，经济进入低增长、资产低回报阶段，央行难以将刺激性政策转化为支出的增加。这个阶段如果货币发行过多，可能会发生流动性陷阱，同时通胀走高，经济不得不进入痛苦的通胀性去杠杆。这种现象被称作“推绳子”。一个典型例子是德国魏玛共和国在上世纪二十年代所经历的恶性通货膨胀。当时每个德国人口袋中可能都装有几十亿马克，甚至有段时间一个面包就需要 2000 亿马克，而一周的养老金都买不来一杯咖啡。由于纸币价值每秒钟都在变化，商家都不再将售价标示出来。家庭主妇用纸币生火做饭，儿童用纸币叠城堡。在魏玛共和国的通胀性萧条中，每轮央行印钞之后，越来越多的货币不是进入实体经济，而是投入到实物资产（如黄金）和外币。股市短期表现较好，但是在债务危机中总体是下跌的。

     叁 我国经济增速将会企稳

     魏玛共和国的通胀性萧条在中国当然不会发生。我国消费领域通胀水平较低，而生产领域通胀有望见顶回落。四季度中国经济仍会趋势性向下。但货币政策总体上是中性偏宽松的，财政政策会持续发力。明年1季度基建项目的启动将会带动经济企稳。中长期中国经济将会回到潜在增速水平，这个水平是3%、4%还是5%取决于中国劳动生产率的提升程度，也就是取决于中国科技发展水平。我们对短期股市不悲观，对长期股市保持乐观，相信科技创新将推动A股长牛。

     肆 外资流入A股和港股

     A股和港股上涨。人民币对美元走强，距6月初的高点一步之遥。受人民币走强影响，外资流入A股和港股。A股农林牧渔、食品饮料和医药生物涨幅居前，港股工业、必需消费和医疗保健行业涨幅居前。两市周期股和房地产股回落。美股延续上涨态势，上市公司3季度业绩持续超预期。美国10年期国债收益率上涨到1.65%，为五月以来的最高水平。

I. Reserve ratio cut did not happen 

While 3rd quarter GDP growth rate fell in short of expectation in China market reacted to this set of data in a calm way. But many investors are bewildered as to why the reserve ratio cut for banks has not happened yet. Some analysts believed that this was because that economy slowed down in 3rd quarter due to the supply chain disruption. This can’t be solved by cutting reserve ratio. Others thought that given the low demand liquidity injected would not come to the real economy. 

II. Push the string

Our view is that at the later stage of a debt cycle economy slows down and return on investment also comes down. At this time when central bank injects liquidity it would be met with liquidity trap and risks higher inflation. This phenomenon is also called “push the string”. 

III. Weimarer Republik

A case in point is Weimarer Republik inthe 1920s. The nation suffered hyperinflation, in which a piece of bread might cost up to several billion Deutsche Mark. While central banks printed money very fast the money did not get into the real economy rather than go to buy gold or foreign currency. 

IV. China's economy would stabilize in 1Q2022

We do not expect hyperinflation to happen in China,though. The inflation in consumer side would maintain at relatively low levels in the next 6 months. While producer-side inflation has been above expectation it would see turning point soon. Economy might continue to slow down in 4thquarter. But monetary policy would maintain neutral to easing stance and fiscal policy would play a key role in supporting economy. We expect China’s economy to stabilize in 1Q2022 with infrastructure spending coming up and remain optimistic for stock market. For the long-term China’s economy would be determined by productivity improvement. This mainly comes from technology and innovation,which would support a long bull market.  

V. RMB went strong

A-share and HK stocks rose. RMB went strong against the US dollar and was close to the high point last June. International investors poured money into both A-share and HK market. The US stocks continued to rise as companies’ 3rd earnings beat expectation. 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.65%, the highest from last May.  

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 股指多上涨

     上证指数年初至上周五10月15日（下同）上涨2.7%，从2月18日的高点下跌2.3%。创业板指年初至今上涨10.6%, 从2月18日高点下跌4%。科创50年初至今下跌2.5%，其高点在2021年8月6日达到，从高点至今下跌15%。

       贰 翻倍股

      指数总体上涨，但个股是分化的。年初至今有2012只股票下跌，但大幅下跌的股票并不多，只有47只个股跌幅在50%以上。2099只股票上涨，578只个股涨幅在50%以上。其中432只个股涨幅超过100%。这些翻倍股大多在锂电池、半导体、新能源和光伏等热门板块，反应资金对这些板块的追捧。除个别股票外，大多市盈率估值都是三位数的水平。少量翻倍股估值不高，有可能会延续涨势。

      叁 腰斩股

     而下跌50%以上的股票可以分为几种情况：一是遭受政策冲击的股票，如教育股；二是债务率较高经营一度陷入危机的房地产股；三是去年的大牛股。这些股票在47只股票中占比接近1/2，占比最高。比如某酱油股，去年上涨63%，今年下跌52%；某手套股，去年上涨9倍多，今年下跌68%；某复合调味料股，去年上涨83%，今年下跌73%。最后一类是今年被ST的股票。如从2月高点算，下跌幅度超过50%的股票一共32只，其中大部分与年初至今下跌50%以上的个股重合。少部分不一样的股票有的是受到个别房地产企业的影响或自身风险暴露。简而言之，今年的腰斩股最有可能是去年的翻倍股。一方面高估值意味着对这些股票的期望很高，而难以达到；另一方面有些股票上涨纯粹是炒作的结果，注定不会长久。

      肆 中国3季度经济数据

      3季度中国经济数据低于预期，一方面受到疫情和限电的干扰，另一方面经济仍处在下行趋势中。低于预期的经济数据并没有对A股和港股构成较大压力，A股和港股均探底回升，反应市场对经济下行预期较充分。但美股道指因中国低于预期的经济数据而下跌，欧洲股指也普跌。虽然美债10年期收益率上涨到1.6%y以上，但科技股仍大幅上涨。纳指和标普连续4天上涨。美股3季度净利润预计同比上涨30%。根据上周各大银行，美国消费者支出能力强劲，支持美国经济持续复苏。预测美股调整的摩根斯坦利策略分析师认为市场比预期的韧性强。

I. Stock Indexes rose  

Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.7% year-to-date (October 15th , the same below) and fell 2.3% from its February high. Chinext Index rose 10.6% and fell 4% from February high. STAR 50 Index fell 2.5% year-to-date and fell 15% from its August high.

II. Stocks that rose more than 100%

While indexes rose broadly, individual stocks performed differently. Year-to-date there were 2012 stocks falling and 2099 stocks that rose. 47 stocks fell more than 50% and 578 stocks rose more than 50%. Also 432 stocks rose more than 100%,which were in lithium battery, photovoltaic, and other new energy-related sectors and semi-conductor sectors. Most of these stocks were valued at more than 100x price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting that market expectation for them are high. 

III. Stocks that fell more than 50%

Those stocks falling more than 50% fell into several categories. The first is that was targeted by policies, such as tutoring stocks. The second is property companies that were in big debt and ran into difficulties in operation. The third is those that rose more than 50% last year. This category comprises of the largest group as about half of the 47 stocks fell into this category. The last group is those stocks that were specially treated. 32 stocks fell more than 50% from February high. Most of them were stocks that fell 50% year-to-date. Some stocks were different due to their own risk exposure. 

IV. Risks associated with high-flying stocks

In summary, stocks that rose more than 100% could fall sharply the following year. The reason is that expectation for them is so high that they could not deliver. Also some stocks rise purely due to speculation. In this case their stock rally would be doomed to fade sometime later.    

V. Market summary

China 3rd quarter economic data came in lower than expected.But both A-share and HK stocks bottomed out, reflecting that market has priced in the slower economic growth. But DOW Index in the US and European stocks fell as investors were concerned about China’s economic growth rate. While the 10-year treasury yield rose above 1.6%, tech stocks rallied. SP 500 and Nasdaq rose for 4 days in a row, boosted by the higher-than-expected earnings growth in 3Q.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。