壹 上市可能是救命稻草

      近期，不仅有房地产公司因多元化经营导致巨额债务无法偿付，还有个别制造业的民营企业也爆出因重大亏损和运营困难，无法偿还债务的消息。巧合的是这两家企业都曾经申请在A股进行下属公司的IPO和借壳上市，但均未得到批准。也有企业近期撤回A股的上市申请。从其披露信息看，该企业的债务水平也较高。A股的IPO也许是某些企业的救命稻草，但如果允许这些企业进行IPO，很可能会加剧系统性风险。

       贰 高杠杆率加剧危机对经济的冲击

       前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘在《动荡的世界》中分析了债务的重要性。他指出1987年股市大跌和2000年的互联网泡沫破灭并没有对经济造成较大冲击，主要就是因为美国实体和金融机构当时的杠杆率较低，而2008年全球金融危机对经济造成自1929年大萧条以来的重大冲击，主要原因就是杠杆率过高。他假设如果2008年的房地产抵押贷款支持证券有低杠杆机构持有，如养老金和共同基金，这些机构也会遭受巨额损失，但是由于债务违约而导致的破产事件将会少很多，这样对经济的冲击程度也会小很多。

       叁 影子银行帮助提高杠杆率

       我们在危机的启示中讨论了人们对危机的认识通常是不足的。而这个不足主要是因为危机初始时，监管机构和市场参与者很难搞清楚杠杆率的高低。2007年底，雷曼兄弟的杠杆率高达30倍以上，而其他幸运度过危机的投资银行杠杆率也都不低，比如美林证券的杠杆率接近28倍。这是从公开信息中看出的杠杆率。但正如桥水创始人达利奥所说的影子银行在加杠杆的过程中发挥了重要作用，这也使得实际的杠杆率远高于公开信息披露的杠杆率。

      肆 我国杠杆率总体稳定

      我们在去年底发表的信用债无序违约是股市的阿克琉斯之踵吗？分析了我国的影子银行，包括委托贷款和信托贷款的同比增速以及存量情况。可以看出我国影子银行的新增规模增速是下降的，而存量也在缓慢减少。但加杠杆无处不在。如果一些企业通过上市而得以继续加杠杆行为，那A股IPO岂不成了唐僧肉吗？这一定不是二级市场投资人希望看到的。

     伍 上证指数上周下跌

    上证指数是全球16个主要国家和地区指数中唯一下跌的。美股上周上涨，好于预期的企业3季度业绩暂时压制了对经济滞涨的担忧。美国11月份将会接收国际旅客，市场对经济复苏的前景谨慎乐观

I. High-leveraged companies' IPO were rejected

It was reported that some private company in manufacturing sector was faced with big losses and poor performance of businesses. As a result it was not able to pay big amount of debt. Before that some property company also was trapped in big debt burden. It seems coincidental that both companies ever applied for A-share IPO and was not approved. We also noticed that a well-known company withdrew its IPO application lately, whose debt burden was not low based on its disclosed information. Thanks to the decisions from supervising agencies that did not allow these companies to be listed in A-share. 

II. High leverage poses big risk for economy

Actually, debt plays a key role in economic crises. Alan Greenspan, the ex-Federal Chairman in the US, wrote in his book “Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting” that 1987 stock market crash and 2000 internet bubble burst did not cause economic to crash.The reason is that leverage levels were low during these two periods. Yet 2008 global financial crises caused the US economy to suffer the deepest recession from 1929. The reason is that leverage levels were too high. Lehman Brothers’ net gearing ratio was more than 30x at the end of 2007. Some investment banks that were lucky to get through the crises also had comparable gearing ratio. 

III. Shadow banking increases leverage

Also shadow banking makes things worse as it increases leverage levels in ways that are hard to be found out. We ever analyzed China’s shadow banking last November and concluded that shadow banking in China was in well controlled. Yet gearing ratio can be increased via many methods. If high-leveraged companies get listed in A-share, this means that their high gearing ratio can be maintained for much longer time. If this happens, the risk of investing in A-share also increases.

IV. Shanghai Composite Index fell last week

A-share lagged behind major stock indexes last week.Shanghai Composite Index was the only one to fall last week among 16 global major indexes. The US stocks rose boosted by better-than-expected 3Q2021 earnings. The worry about stagflation subdued for the moment.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 从众心理

      格林斯潘在《动荡的世界》一书中分析了在股价上涨和下跌的过程中投资者心理发挥的作用。他指出在美国上世纪的股市上涨过程中，从众心理发挥了很大作用，但是股价上涨的幅度似乎一次比一次弱。我们认为这也许是因为投资者变得越来越理性。在1929年大萧条前5年，股市年均涨幅为28%；2000年互联网泡沫破灭前5年，股市年均涨幅为22%；而2007年前5年股价年均涨幅为12%。

      贰 恐惧心理

      他同时指出恐惧是比狂热强烈得多的人类心理倾向，因此，下跌往往比上涨来的剧烈。而克服恐惧是件知易行难的事情。他举例说许多经验丰富的投资者都在1987年10月19日创纪录的股灾中抛售了股票。虽然他们知道是错误的，但财富蒸发所带来的痛苦导致他们想通过摆脱股市来寻求安慰。

      叁 信用利差

      恐惧或者风险可以用信用利差来反应。标准普尔10年期BB+级债券，即垃圾债券收益率与10年期国债收益率的利差在股价与房地产泡沫的高潮期收缩到2%，而在雷曼事件后的2008年金融危机高潮期则达到了近9%。在我国，信用利差也是观察风险偏好的一个重要指标。通常选用较低级别的利率债与较高评级的信用债利率的差异来确定信用利差。

      肆 如何克服恐惧心理

      对于散户而言，恐惧发挥决定性的作用。因为一旦亏完了，散户就出局了。而只有资金雄厚的投资者才能够承受周期性的市场冲击，利用股市大跌建立有效的投资组合。那作为散户如何能够面对大幅回撤的股价和净值损失呢？首先，散户炒股也要有纪律性。如果回撤到一定程度，要及时止损。其次，对于处在防御性行业的公司，如估值不高，则可以等待危机度过。这些公司一般会持续增长，股价会创出新高。但如估值过高，则等待的时间会很长。如上世纪70年代的美国漂亮50，投资者需要等待10年股价才回到高点。最后，最好的避险办法是对公司有比较深入的了解，同时在估值较低时介入。这样，就不用担心系统性风险。

      伍 美股大涨

      A股微跌。美国上周初请失业人数好于预期，公司盈利超预期，美股大涨。

I. Herd instinct

The ex-Federal Chairman Alan Greenspan ever wrote in his book “Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting” that psychology plays a key role in asset prices volatility. He pointed out that herd instinct actually determined stock prices going up in the last century. Yet the price increase dwindled in bull markets.In the five years before 1929 stock crash the stock index rose at an annual rate of 28%. But it was 22% and 12% per annum on average respectively five years before 2000 and 2007, which led to internet bubble burst and global financial crises. It seems that investors become more sensible with time passing by. 

II. Horror

He also pointed out that horror is a type of psychology that comes with much more power than mania. As a result, stock prices always fall more sharply than the rise. And overcoming horror is much easier said than done. A case in point is stock crash on October 19th,1987 when stock index saw the largest daily decline. Many sophisticated investors sell stocks although they knew that it was wrong. The big pain of seeing fortune loss made them only want to get out of stock markets. 

III. Credit spread 

Horror or the risk investors are faced with can be measured by credit spread. The credit spread between 10-year junk bond and 10-year treasury yield narrowed to 200 basis point at the peak of stock and property market in 2007 and expanded to 900 basis point after Lehman Brothers went bankruptcy. 

IV. How to overcome horror?

Individual investors are manipulated by horror more than institutional investors. As the game would be over if they lose all of their money. For institutional investors who usually have more capital to leverage, they can make their portfolio better when stock market crash. So for individual investors it is important to have disciplines in cutting losses. Moreover, they should know the stocks well, which would also help them to endure the temporary losses. Lastly, it would be wise to buy good companies at low valuation levels. This can help them to tide over any market risks.  

V. The US stocks rallied

A-share fell slightly. The US stock rallied on good earnings report and better initial jobless claims last week.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 滞涨到衰退

      我国经济在从滞涨阶段走向衰退阶段。根据乔治·达格尼诺在《驾驭周期》一书中的总结，滞涨和衰退分别是经济的第三和第四阶段；而第一和第二阶段分别是复苏和繁荣阶段。滞涨阶段的特点包括：货币供给增速持续下降；货币走势疲软；股票市场萎靡不振；经济增速放缓，最终位于长期潜在增长率之下；企业利润增长见顶；大宗商品价格见顶；短期和长期利率见顶；通胀持续上涨后开始下降。而到了衰退阶段，经济增速已经低于长期潜在增速，并且伴随着紧缩的货币政策和持续减少的货币供给，以及企业不断地削减成本，经济持续疲软。但是，由于成本下降，企业的边际利润率开始好转。衰退期的特征包括：货币供给增速持续下降，但只要短期利率见顶，货币供给就会增加；货币先抑后扬；股票市场虽然低迷，但是会逐渐向好；经济持续下行。

      贰 衰退期债券和股票投资都有机会

      根据乔治，滞涨期不适合投资金融工具，而适合投资硬资产，包括能源和黄金类股票、大宗商品、房地产和艺术品等。而衰退期非常重要，因为之前所有下跌的指标在这个阶段都会反转，包括通胀见顶回落、短期利率和债券收益率持续下行，此时债券的投资机会开始显现。而低通货膨胀率和低债券收益率使得股票具有投资价值。最终，当央行开始释放流动性之后，股票市场迎来进一步的上扬，经济周期也进入第一阶段—复苏期。

      叁 等待隧道尽头的光

      我国经济在今年3月份达到顶点之后，开始下行，经济进入第三阶段—滞涨期。近几个月，利率水平持续走低，预期经济进入衰退期，而刚刚公布的九月份的货币供应量数据看，社融存量增速仍在下行，但是广义货币的增速已经触底回升，叠加近期政策表态，预示经济有可能进入了第四阶段。投资者在这一阶段无需悲观，要为即将到来的股市上涨做好准备。在隧道尽头的光，一定是政策宽松的信号发出的。

      肆 市场综述

      A股探底回升。美国9月份的消费者价格指数同比涨幅均超预期，但美国国债收益率回落，科技股上涨。

I. From stagflation to depression  

China’s economy is shifting from stagflation to depression. According to George Dagnino, there are four stages in economy. They are recovery, prosperity, stagflation and depression. The characteristics in stagflation stage include that money supply slows down, a weak currency, economy slows down and would go below potential growth rate, profit growth rate slows down, interest rate goes down and commodity prices reach peak levels. And when it comes to depression stage, the economy slows down further and remains at a low level due to that enterprises cut costs and monetary policies remain stringent. But with the cost coming down the marginal profitability of enterprise would turn positive. In summary the characteristics of depression stage include that economy is continuously weak and money supply still remains at low levels. But once interest rate comes down money supply would go up. Stock market performs poorly in depression stage. But when money supply comes up, it would perform well. 

      II. Bond and stocks would perform in depression stage 

According to George, in stagflation stage one should not invest in any financial products. Rather he or she should invest in hard assets such as commodity, gold, property and arts,etc. Depression stage is very important as all of the leading indicators would reverse. The interest rate would peak out as well as inflation. Bond is a good investment in depression. And with the falling interest rate and bond yields stocks also offer investment value. Eventually central banks would inject liquidity into the financial markets. Stock markets would go up further. 

      III. The light at the end of the tunnel 

In the case of China’s economy it peaked in March this year and entered stagflation period. Recently, we noticed that interest rate came down. Meanwhile broad money supply (M2) in September also bottomed out. The most important signal is when PBOC would cut reserve ratio for commercial banks. This would mean that economy would enter the first stage and stock markets would rise. So remain patient for the stocks.

      IV. Market summary

A-share bottomed out.The US September CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, higher than expected. But treasury yield fell and tech stocks rallied. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 上世纪的“蔡经理”

      无论是约翰·聂夫还是彼得·林奇，在他们各自的书中都无一例外的提到一个蔡经理。蔡经理全名叫做杰拉德·蔡（Gerald Tsai），是上世纪50-60年代富达基金著名的基金经理，当时是家喻户晓的一个名人。聂夫是与其同时代的基金经理。当彼得·林奇在70年代中期加入富达基金的时候，他的母亲就是因为蔡经理而听说过富达基金，可见蔡经理在美国投资者的影响力。

      贰 蔡经理钟爱题材股

      在其《约翰·聂夫论投资》一书中，聂夫写道：蔡经理买进的都是题材股，这些题材股通常是小公司。在聂夫看来，很多小公司只是因为投资人看好未来的盈利前景而导致股价上涨，是“博傻投资理论”发挥号令。聂夫因此称蔡管理的基金是“肾上腺素”支配的基金。1965-1967年三年的时间里，蔡管理的基金年复合收益率50%，这是令人瞠目结舌的业绩。而聂夫坚持不参与题材股的炒作，其所管理的基金与蔡管理的狂飙基金的收益差距很大，因而被人批评为食古不化的老顽固和对市场不敏感。

      叁 熊市业绩不佳

      1968年美国股市结束了10年牛市，开始走入低迷。蔡经理的基金业绩也随即低迷。而聂夫因为做了正确的事，在1968年和1969年都业绩表现出色。蔡从富达基金出来自立门户后，所管理的曼哈顿基金在1968-1969年遭遇熊市，表现不佳，净值最多下跌了55%，基金管理规模也从7亿美金下降到5400万美元。而聂夫管理温莎基金长达31年，年复合收益率为13.7%。

      肆 人人都爱蔡经理

      为什么追求题材股的基金经理会对大众产生这么大的影响力呢？因为赚快钱更能唤起大众的情绪，而如聂夫一样坚守风险收益比的基金让投资人觉得乏味。虽然长期看，聂夫的基金存活的时间要比蔡经理的长很多，但是这不妨碍人们去追逐蔡经理为他们在短期内赚块钱。通过投资赚钱很容易吗？芒格曾经说过：投资从来不是一件容易的事。

      伍 主要市场均下跌

      A股和港股大幅下跌，美股小幅下跌。美国9月份消费者价格指数周三公布，同时摩根大通和达尔塔航空公布3季报。

I. Tsai in the 1960s 

Both John Neff and Peter Lynch mentioned a famous fund manager called Tsai, whose full name is Gerald Tsai. Tsai was a fund manager with Fidelity in the 1950-60s and was a household name at that time. Actually when Peter Lynch began his career in Fidelity in the mid-1970s, his mother knew Fidelity because Tsai ever worked in this firm. 

II. Tsai loved small companies 

Tsai mainly bought small companies with promising prospects, i.e. theme stocks. But these stocks might have this or that kind of problems that would not guarantee a long-term earnings growth potential. Neff hence called his funds controlled by adrenaline. From 1965 to 1967 Tsai achieved 50% return for each of these three years, which was really impressive and outstanding. Neff did not chase those small stocks and his fund’s performance was far lagged behind that of Tsai. He was therefore criticized as being stubborn and having no nerve for the market. 

III. Tsai did not perform well in bear market

Yet from 1968 the US concluded 10-year bull market goal and turned into bear market. Tsai left Fidelity and set up his own fund called Manhattan Fund. The fund suffered 55% loss at the worst time and the AUM shrank from initial US$ 700 million to 54 million. Neff’s fund performed well during the bear market. He managed his fund called Windsor Fund for 31 years and achieved annual compound return of 13.7%. 

IV. Reasons that everybody loves Tsai 

So why investors only remember Tsai rather than Neff? The reason is that everyone likes those who can make money in a fast way rather than those who make money in a steady way. Even if everyone knows that fund managers such as Neff can make money for them for a longer period of time, they can’t help chasing those fund managers like Tsai with the expectation that these fund managers can make big money in a short period of time. Well, Munger ever said: investment is never easy.

V. Market sentiment is low worldwide  

Both A-share and HK stocks fell sharply while the US stocks fell slightly.The US September CPI is to be released on Wednesday. Also JP Morgan and Delta Airline will report 3rd quarter earnings on Wednesday.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 2008年金融危机肇始于次贷危机

      2008年美国的房地产市场发生次贷危机继而传导到全球，引发全球金融危机。根据桥水公司的创始人达利奥的分析，美国房地产市场在2005年就呈现出泡沫的特征。具体表现为：资产价格偏高；市场预期目前的高价会继续快速上行；普遍存在看涨情绪；利用高杠杆融资买入资产；卖家提前很长时间买入，旨在投机或应对未来价格上涨的影响；新买家进入市场；货币宽松政策进一步助长泡沫，而收紧货币政策会刺破泡沫。达利欧还指出影子银行也是泡沫时期的一个共同特征。在美国的房地产次贷危机中，影子银行也发挥了作用。影子银行使各方都受益，因为监管缺位降低了贷款成本，降低了借款利率和还款难度，投资者的回报也能增加。但影子银行通常会导致危机。

      贰 人们对危机认识不足

      2007年次贷危机刚刚发生时并没有被认为是很严重的危机。时任美联储主席伯南克在2007年3月28日的国会听证会上表示：次贷市场问题对整个经济和金融市场的影响似乎可以得到控制。2007年10月，美国道琼斯指数创出了历史新高14198点，随后就因为美国银行业绩受到次贷坏账计提的减值影响而股市大跌。谁也不曾料到，一年之后，股市下跌了50%以上。达利奥也坦言尽管他们进行了深入调研，考察了各类市场（特别是衍生品市场）参与者的持仓情况。但他们得出的结论是没有人能够掌握持仓的全部情况。很多风险都是未知的应该是2008年次贷危机最终演进成全球金融危机的一个深层次原因。

      叁 危机无法预防

      从达利奥的描述中，我们可以看到身处危机之中其实很难推断危机的进程和危机影响的幅度，无论是普通的市场参与者还是美联储的高官，亦或是达利奥这样的有先见知名的投资人。20世纪以来，危机总是隔一段时间来过一次。但人们除了应对，似乎没有任何能够避免危机发生的办法。所有危机背后都有人们急于逐利的心理，怕失去发财机会的恐惧以及全然不考虑风险的盲目乐观的情绪。如果真有能够避免危机发生的方法，那就是遏制人性的贪婪。这显然是无法做到的。

      肆 油价上涨压抑股市

      A股下跌，港股上涨。油价上涨令市场担忧经济复苏受阻，美股下跌。

I. 2008 Global Financial Crises  

Ray Dalio, the founder of the famous hedge fund Bridgewater, analyzed 2008 global financial crises in his popular book “A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises”. The crises were originated from property bubbles, which actually began from 2005. According to Dalio the US property market had typical bubble characteristics,which included high-rocket high asset prices, market expectation that high prices could still go higher, bullish sentiment, high leverage, new entrants to the market, and easing monetary policy that would boost bubbles while stringent monetary policy would burst bubbles. Moreover, shadow banking also played a role in the subprime crises. Due to lacking supervision measures, shadow banking provided lower cost loans to borrowers and those invested in shadow banking could get higher return. But shadow banking can lead to crises.  

II. Few people can fully understand the crises

Few people knew that subprime crises could lead to global financial crises. On March 28th,2007 when the Fed chairman Bernanke made testimony before the Congress he said that the negative impact that subprime issues had on the overall economy and financial markets were well under control. Dalio had tried to collect data on risk exposures of market participants but in vain. He concluded that nobody could have the whole picture of the risk exposure. In October 2007 DOW reached the highest point in history at 14810 and then saw itself to be nearly halved in one year. 

III. Lessons that can not be learned

In summary nobody, whether he is the highest-ranked official or common investor, can predict how far and how deep a crisis could go. While we experienced one crisis after another since the beginning of last century, we might have learned how to deal with it rather than how to prevent it from happening.Behind every crisis are those factors including the eagerness to be on board,the horror that might miss a fortune and the blind optimism. If there is a way to prevent crises, it should make people not become greedy. But there is really no way to accomplish that goal.

IV. High oil prices dented stock markets 

A-share fell while HK stocks rallied. The US stocks fell due to the rising oil prices. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 A股三季报

      首先是中美三季报的情况。7-9月份，政策频出。有一些行业和板块因为突发政策而造成较大冲击，因此，三季报应该不会有较好的表现。但市场总是“几家欢乐几家愁”，也有一些行业增长较快，上市公司业绩增速会保持较快增长。不过，也要考虑因为市场已经计入了较高业绩增速，因此，季报出来反而成为利好出尽股价下跌的触发点。我们看到个别新能源上市公司上周就遭遇了这种“利好出尽”的冲击。另外，9月中下旬开始的限电举措对部分上市公司的业绩也会有影响。

      贰 三季报盈利增速预计下行

      今年一季度A股上市公司归母净利润同比增幅为58.70%，二季度回落至41.75%；一季度和二季度净利润环比增幅分别为59.28%和9.66%。二季度的盈利增长主要是周期和成长板块贡献的。预计三季度利润同比和环比增速都将回落。

      叁 美股三季报

      根据FactSet的数据，二季度S&P500公司的利润同比增长89.3%，是2009年Q4以来的最大增速。其中87%的公司盈利超预期，创2008年以来新高。美股三季度盈利将从二季度创纪录的水平下滑7.4%，成为历史上盈利第二好的季度；预计2021年全年的美股盈利将较2020年增长62.0%，达到创纪录水平。本周开始，美股市场将迎来三季报发布的密集期，达美航空、摩根大通、贝莱德、美国银行、花旗集团、摩根士丹利等82家美股上市公司将发布三季报。

       肆 政策

      对政策而言，中美方向正好相反。中国市场投资人期待的是央行10月份或至少四季度能够降准降息；而美国则会收紧流动性，最晚在11月份宣布缩减债券购买规模，12月份开始实行。中美金融周期逆向而行，对市场的影响如何有待观察。近期，各种涨价也是市场关注的焦点。我们一直认为通胀是可持续的，具体可参见你在哪个阵营？、通胀涨幅回落可能是暂时的及这可能是一个不一样的超级周期。但由于中国猪肉价格仍处在低位，总体消费价格指数的上涨还不明显。而美国的消费领域通胀有可能会维持在较高水平。

      伍 市场综述

     上周五A股和港股均上涨。美国9月非农就业数据低于预期，但应不会影响缩减债券购买规模进程。

I.  The 3rd quarter results of A-share 

The first major focus of the market would be the upcoming 3rd quarter results of both A-share and the US listed companies. As policies targeted some sectors were brought up in July, these sectors might not deliver good results.In contrast some sectors enjoy fast growth companies in these sectors are expected to deliver strong earnings growth in 3rd quarter. Yet,there is also the risk that market would sell on good news and these companies might see their stock prices correct sharply after earnings release. It did happen to some companies last week. In 1Q2021 and 2Q2021 A-share earnings grew at 58.7% and 41.75% year-on-year respectively and 59.28% and 9.66% quarter-on-quarter. The 3rd quarter earnings might come down both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 

II. The 3rd quarter results of the US companies

The US companies would release 3rd quarter results starting this week. According to FactSet, the 2nd quarter earnings of the US listed companies grew 89.3% year-on-year, the best quarter from 4Q2009. 87% of the listed companies beat market expectation. The 3rd quarter earnings are expected to slow 7.4% quarter-on-quarter from 2rd quarter record levels. The earnings of the US listed companies are expected to grow 62% in 2021, which is unprecedentedly high in history. 82 companies would release results this week in the US including JP Morgan and Delta Airline, etc. 

III. Monetary policies 

The monetary policies of China and the US are different. Market expects that PBOC would cut reserve ratio for banks in October or 4th quarter. But Fed is expected to announce taper in November and execute taper in Dec. What A-share and the US stock market would perform as Sino-US monetary policies are divergent is still uncertain. Also another focus is on the price increases of upstream raw materials. We discussed this in “Which side do you take你在哪个阵营？?”.Inflation is to be here for some time. For China CPI might still at relatively low levels due to that swine prices are low. The US CPI might be maintained at high levels.

IV. Taper is to come soon

The non-farm payroll data in September of the US came in lower than expected. Yet this would not delay taper, which is expected to be announced in November and executed in December. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。