壹 低估值板块

       我们认为低估值板块四季度的机会更大一些。而一些低估值板块恰好也是年初至今大幅落后的板块。A股申万28个行业中年初至今11个上涨，16个下跌, 一个持平。涨幅居前的是采掘、钢铁、电气设备、有色和化工，都是周期股或与新能源相关的板块。跌幅居前的板块为家用电器、非银金融、传媒、农林牧渔、食品饮料和房地产。这些板块或受到房地产政策影响，如房地产和家用电器，或者是因基本面变差而遭到抛弃，如传媒、非银金融和农林牧渔，或者是抱团股瓦解，如食品饮料。从估值看，银行、建筑装饰和房地产静态市净率最低，分别为0.63、0.92和0.94倍；这三个板块的静态市盈率也是最低的，分别为6.3、8.7和7.7倍。银行板块年初至今下跌3.9%，建筑装饰板块涨幅为9.6%。四季度在经济下行压力加大和政策可能出台的背景下，这些低估值板块会更加受益于政策，应该会有较好表现。

       贰 高估值板块

       对于高估值的板块，我们认为还是要判断未来的业绩增速。之所以估值高就是预期未来的盈利增速会较高。如果盈利增速不达预期，则股价就会如上面提到的基本面变差的板块持续下跌。我们在研究中也发现A股还有很多个股盈利增速较好，估值也都处于历史低位，值得配置。

       叁 港股

       关于港股，我们之前在港股到底有多惨？一文中指出，港股因欧美机构投资者占市场的相对主导地位，受影响的因素较多。港股整体估值处在历史低位。以恒生指数的静态市净率为1.1倍，处在2002年以来15.7%的分位；而恒生国企指数的静态市净率也是1.1倍，处在2002年以来34%的分位。随着中美关系有所好转，港股将更加受益。

       伍 周期股

       对于周期股，要看商品价格在高位能够持续多长时间。如持续的时间足够长，则周期股的股价还会有较好表现。对比本次周期股和2008年周期股的涨幅。相比2008年，周期股的股价涨幅仍然落后于商品价格上涨的幅度。

        陆 市场普涨

        港股和欧美股市均大涨。周四因美国债务上限问题延期到12月初，市场一片欢腾。同时，美国周四发布的上周申请失业救济人数也好于预期。因为失业救济已经到期，人们被迫出来寻找工作。美10年期国债收益率上涨到1.57%，瑞银预计年底将会达到1.8%。市场关注周五美国股市开市前的9月非农就业报告。如报告符合预期，则美联储缩减债券购买计划将会如期进行。

I. Low-valued sectors  

We believe that low-valued stocks would have more upside potential compared with those high-valued ones in 4th quarter this year. Among the 28 sectors in A-share 11 sectors rose while the remaining 16 sectors fell and one sector was flat. The low-valued sectors include bank, property and construction and decoration, which rose -3.9%, 9.6% and -11.3% year-to-date. In 4thquarter China’s economy would see lower year-on-year growth rate. Market expects that supporting policies might come out at some point in 4th quarter.The low-valued sectors including bank, property and construction and decoration all benefit from the likely supporting policies and could perform well.

II. High-valued sectors 

For those high-valued sectors the key is to see whether their earnings growth can maintain at a high speed. The reason that they enjoy high valuation is due to that their earnings growth are expected to be high. If it turns out not to be the case then it would be disastrous for stock prices.

III.Cyclical sectors 

Cyclical sectors would also perform if commodity prices can be maintained at high levels. Compared with 2008 when the last super cycle took place, this time stock prices increased less than commodity prices. Hence, stocks might still have room to go up. 

IV. HK market 

HK market is valued at low levels. The trailing-twelve-month price-to-book value of both Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Enterprises Index was 1.1x, which put them at 15% and 33% percentile respectively from 2002. HK market is affected by a lot of factors. If Sino-US relationship could ease then HK market would benefit.

V. Global market rallied.

Market cheered the short-term debt ceiling deal in the US. Also the initial jobless claim last week in the US came in better than expected as people began to seek jobs actively. The non-farm payroll in September,which would be released on Friday before the US market opens, is the focus. A good non-farm payroll number would provide the green light for the Fed to take back liquidity. 10-year treasury yield continued to rise to 1.57%. The UBS predicted that it would reach 1.8% by the end of this year.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 A股大跌

      A股周三受到欧美股市调整影响大幅下跌，申万28个行业中只有农林牧渔、银行和家用电器板块上涨，其余25个行业下跌。其中采掘、钢铁、国防军工、有色金属、化工等前期热门板块跌幅较大。市场大跌会导致投资者情绪不高，很多投资者“芯锂苦”。恭喜你，在这一点上你与股神是相同的。

       贰 股神遭遇股市大跌

      彼得·林奇，曾经执掌富达麦哲伦基金长达13年并且年复合收益率超过20%的股神，曾经在书中描写过股市大跌时他的心情。1987年10月19日美国股市大跌时，他正在英国度假。股市大跌导致麦哲伦基金当天下跌18%。麦哲伦基金当时的规模为100亿美金，一天就损失了接近20亿美金，相当于一个海上岛国一年的GDP。彼得·林奇写道：心如刀割的他根本分不清吃的是鳕鱼还是大虾。股市大跌导致他不仅食不甘味，而且无心游玩，最后提前结束度假返回办公室。

        叁 反思

       几年后他的反思是即使10月19日的行情让你对股市的走势感到惊恐不安，你也不必在这一天甚至在第二天把股票抛出，你可以逐步减持你的股票投资组合，从而最终能够获得比那些由于恐慌将股票全部抛出的投资人更高的投资回报。因为从11月份开始股市就稳步上扬，到1988年6月，市场已经反弹了400多点，也就是说涨幅超过了23%。

        肆 投资优秀的公司

       从这次大跌的经历中，彼得·林奇总结出3点经验或教训：①不要让烦心之事毁掉一个很好的投资组合；②不要让烦心之事毁掉一次愉快的度假；③当你的投资组合中现金比重很小时千万不要出国旅游。他指出投资最重要的是如何寻找到优秀的公司。不管某一天股市下跌508点还是108点，最终优秀的公司将会胜利，而普通公司将会失败，投资于这两类完全不同的公司的投资者也将会相应得到完全不同的回报。股市大跌其实是好事，让投资人有机会以打折的价格购买优秀的公司。

      伍 港股韧性较好

       港股在金融地产带领下上涨，而原材料和能源板块大跌。港股国企指数年初至今下跌18%，恒生指数下跌8%，二者均为主要市场中表现最差的指数。但另一方面对外部冲击的韧性也相对较强。美股道指上涨，而科技股继续下跌。美国债收益率有所回落。美国众议院通过了债务上限法案，但因共和党明确表示不支持债务上限，因此，该法案将无法通过参议院。

I. A-share fell sharply on Wednesday

A-share fell sharply on Wednesday. Apart from bank, farming and fishery and home appliance that rose, the remaining 25 sectors fell.Energy, mining, iron and steel, and petrochemical sectors fell the most. Investors felt the pain from losing money. Well, your feeling is the same with the legendary investor Peter Lynch. 

II. The legendary investor in 1987 market crash

Peter Lynch ran Megellan Fund in Fidelity for 13 years and achieved an compound annual return above 20%. He wrote in one of his books about what he experienced when the stock market crashed on Oct. 19th 1987. The Megellan Fund’s AUM was US$ 10 billion and lost 18% on that day due to the market crash. Peter was on vacation in the UK. The big fall of the stock market made him have no appetite for food and torn his heart. He concluded his vacation earlier and went back to the office. 

III. Reflections

Several years later he reflected that one should not sell stocks on the panic day or the day after. He or she should cut exposure gradually and would get much better prices than on the panic day. In fact the stock market began to rise in November and went up 23% by June 1988. 

IV. Lessons learned 

He then shared three lessons from this. The first is to maintain your portfolio as it is despite the market crash. The second is to enjoy overseas trip. The third is not to travel overseas when one’s portfolio only has a small percentage of cash. In the end he pointed out that investment is to look for excellent companies. As long as you invest in an excellent company you will get good returns, no matter how much market could drop. The market crash offers big discount to excellent companies. So treasure every market crash.

V. HK market was resilient

HK markets rose. Financial and property sectors rose the most while energy and raw material sector fell the most. Both Hang Seng Index and China Enterprises Index returned negatively year-to-date. This in fact provides buffer when facing the external shocks. The US stocks were mixed with defensive stocks rising and tech stocks continuing slide. 10-year treasury yield took a pause. The House of Congress passed raising debt ceiling act. Yet as the Republicans would not support raising debt ceiling the act would be doomed in Senate. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 限电将会导致中国经济增速下降

       中国的限电将会导致3、4季度经济增速明显回落。摩根士丹利发表报告表示，若中国持续因限电带来限产，将令第四季GDP增长减少1个百分点，中央或需要作政策微调和更有系统地减排。该行预计，减排将令9至12月的粗钢产量按年减少9%，同时令7%的铝产能停顿，全国29%的水泥生产受到影响，预计纸和玻璃将会是接下来两个生产受到影响的行业。对基建项目的阻碍，将削弱第四季的逆周期宽松措施的效用。

       贰 为了碳减排

       在9月至少有5个省实施限电，令生产突然停顿，主要原因是中国减少碳排放的倡议，不过适逢疫情后出口带动工业扩张，大部分省份达成减排目标的进度落后，因而采用运动式减碳，以达到减排目标。该行说，对煤开采限制及水力发电不足，也导致供电不足。国内的一些研究机构也预计中国3季度经济增速有可能回落到5%以下，而4季度由于面临去年的高基数很可能会回落到4%左右。

       叁 美国债务上限

      与此同时，美国的经济也面临下行风险。美国经济增速在3季度可能到达环比高点之后将会下行。但是，两党在债务上限问题上如果无法顺利达成协议，则美国政府有可能会面临关门的风险。2013年，美国政府因债务上限问题导致关门造成80万政府雇员临时失业。这对美国经济也将会产生负面影响。美国财政部长耶伦周二警告议员们必需在10月18日前提高债务上限，否则美国将会面临危机。

       肆 美债利率上涨

       A股和港股上涨。A股周期股基本企稳，而消费板块在周一大涨后回调。港股科技股涨势如虹，有媒体报道海外机构过去三个月都在抄底科技股。美国10年期国债收益率上涨到1.567%，达到7月以来的新高。美元指数也上涨到去年11月以来的高点。受美债收益率上行影响，美股全线下跌，科技股领跌。从2013年的缩减债券购买看，国债收益率通常在美联储明示要进行债券购买计划后会上涨，通常涨到开始实施的时候。据此，国债收益率有可能会持续上涨到今年年底。高估值的股票恐面临估值回调的压力。

      伍 幅度可能有限

     但国债收益率上涨幅度可能是有限的。我们在《美联储能退出宽松货币政策吗？》中曾经分析过，因美国巨额债务负担，国债收益率上行最大不会超过2%。另外，美股调整对A股和港股的冲击也应该是可控的，原因就是A股估值不高，港股的估值在历史的低位。年初至今A股和港股都没有跟随美股大幅上涨，港股反而是大幅回落。具体可参见美股如调整对A股影响有多大？

I. China's economy might slow down more than expected in 2H2021 

China’s economic growth might face some head wind in 3Q and 4Q this year due to power shortage. Morgan Stanley pointed out in a recent report that production cut due to power shortage could cost 1 percentage point of GDP growth rate in 4Q this year. It is necessary for governments to adjust policies or cut carbon emission in a more systematic way. 

II. Due to carbon emission

Morgan Stanley estimated that from September to December due to the efforts to cut carbon emission raw steel production volume would fall 9% year-on-year. 7% aluminum production capacity would become idle and 29% of cement production capacity would be affected negatively. Paper and glass production would be affected very soon. Morgan Stanley believed that the infrastructure investment, which is taken as an anti-cycle tool when economy is going down, would not go smoothly due to the shortage of raw materials and power. In September there were at least five provinces that limited power supply. The reason is that China has implemented energy consumption quota. Yet due to the booming export demand some provinces have been lagging far behind the required energy consumption quota. With the year-end in sight they had to cut power supply to satisfy the requirement. Some analysts in China also pointed out that China’s economic growth in 3Q might fall below 5% and 4Q might be around 4%. 

III. Debt ceiling 

At the same time the US economy would reach its peak levels in 3Q this year and slow down from 4Q. Moreover, the debt ceiling might force governments to shut down temporarily. In 2013, debt ceiling caused the governments to close down and 800,000 employees were unemployed for morethan 2 weeks. This would have a negative impact on the US economy.

IV. Treasury yield shot up

Both A share and HK market rose.A-share cyclical stocks stopped falling while liquor stocks corrected after the rally on Monday. HK tech stocks rallied. The US stocks fell sharply as 10-year treasury yield went up to 1.53%. Tech stocks fell the most. The US dollar index rose above 93, the first time from November last year. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

        壹 消费的增长来自收入驱动

       消费增长是由个人收入水平增速所决定的。截止2020年6月份我国城镇居民人均可支配收入的累计同比增速为11.4%，与截止2020年6月份累计同比增速1.5%相加，可得2020和2021两年累计收入同比增速的平均值为6.45%。这个增速是2003年有统计数据以来的最低值。

        贰 疫情冲击

        这其中一个因素是疫情的影响。疫情对居民收入增速造成较大影响主要表现在其对第三产业的冲击。根据国家统计局，2020年我国有3.58亿人从事第三产业。任何一个行业中，80%都是中小企业，20%是大企业。据此可得约2.86亿人在第三产业中的中小企业工作，占我国总就业人口7.5亿人的1/3强，分布在餐饮、住宿、旅游、娱乐等行业。疫情冲击下，很多中小餐馆、住宿旅游及其他服务性行业的从业人员都不得不因为疫情而面临较长时间的暂时性失业，导致收入水平下降。

       叁 高收入人群不受疫情影响

       跟发达国家一样，疫情下中国经济也存在明显的K型复苏现象：即高收入人群的收入基本没有受到疫情的影响，反而因为资产价格收益如股市投资等而使收入水平持续提高，一个表现是在奢侈品市场。2020年，受疫情影响，全球奢侈品市场萎缩了23%，但中国奢侈品消费却比2019年上涨了48%，占全球奢侈品消费的1/3。

        肆 大众消费和奢侈品消费未来走向

       未来，我国经济潜在增速将会逐步下行，预计到5%以下的水平。经济下行的过程中，低收入人群仍然是受冲击最大的。如何使低收入人群的收入水平保持一定的增速而不被落下，是近期政策的一个焦点。我们认为这些政策将会有助于消费的恢复，尤其是大众消费。而中国的奢侈品消费可参照日本的经验。日本奢侈品消费在1995年达到顶峰，人均消费达到1996美元，占全球奢侈品消费的68%。随后，日本消费开始趋于理性化和去品牌化。2018年，日本占全球奢侈品消费的10%。我国2021年取代日本成为全球最大的奢侈品消费市场。2021年以来，A股和港股市场的消费板块都有较大幅度的调整，而近期有走强的迹象。这种走强能否持续还是看居民的消费水平能否支撑。

       伍 市场综述

       A股下跌，港股上涨。A股周期股全线下跌，而消费板块上涨。港股科技股跌幅较大。美股涨跌互现，道指上涨而科技股下跌，因美国10年期国债收益率持续上涨。

I. Consumption growth is driven by disposable income

Urban disposable income per capita growth rate in China grew 11.4% year-on-year by June 2021. In 2020, urban disposable income per capita grew 1.5% year-on-year. Combining the growth rate of 2020 and 2021 urban disposable income per capita grew 6.45% on average for these two years. This is the lowest from 2003 when the data was released for the first time.

II. The pandemic hit the lower-income population hard

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit hard on some groups of people,especially for those in the third industry. There was a population of 358million people working in the third industry. For any sector 80% are small and medium-sized enterprises. Based on this, there were a total of 286 people working in the small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). They work in leisure and service, catering, travelling, etc sectors. SMEs in these sectors were hit hard by the pandemic as the latter caused them to stop businesses from time to time. 

III. Higher-income population is not affected by the pandemic

Yet for those high-income population they are not affected by the pandemic at all. Moreover, due to their investment in stock markets or other assets their income actually increased during the pandemic. This is reflected in the luxury consumption. In 2020 luxury consumption fell 23% globally while it rose 48% in China. China took one-third market share of global luxury consumption. Going forward China’s economic growth rate would come down to around 4-5%. During this process the growth rate of personal disposable income would come down as well. 

IV. The trend of luxury and mass consumption in the future 

How to maintain the growth rate of those lower-income population has become the policy focus. This would benefit mass consumption products. Luxury consumption reached peak levels in 1995 in Japan when it took 68% market share worldwide. After that consumers became more rational and consumed no-brand goods. What happened in Japan might give some clues about luxury consumption trend in China in the future.

V. Market summary

A share fell sharply while HK stocks rose slightly.Consumption stocks rose while cyclical stocks fell across the board. The US markets were mixed with 10-year treasury yield rising.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 中国经济数据

       A股在10月1日至10月7日休市，10月8日星期五开市。港股10月1日休市，10月4日开市。在此期间，有一系列中外数据和事件有可能影响市场走势。首先，中国官方制造业和非制造业采购经理人指数将会在9月30日发布。经济处在下行通道叠加疫情以及限电的影响，采购经理人指数可能不会有较好的表现。9月30日A股收市之后，欧美股市开盘会对该数据做出反应。

       贰 美国就业数据

       其次，美国9月非农就业数据将会在10月1日美股开盘前公布。如数据符合预期，则11月美联储宣布缩减债券购买将会顺利成章。美国这波疫情的新增病例已经开始向下走，有利于就业恢复。因此，9月份的非农数据很可能会符合预期甚至略超预期。

       叁  债务上限的讨论

       再次，美国债务上限的讨论也可能对市场造成影响。市场很清楚这是美国两党争夺利益的一个焦点。所以，面对暂时无法通过债务上限导致政府关门的情况，市场反应也比较温和。比如2013年因债务上限两党争论导致政府停摆，从10月1日持续到10月16日。由于美国政府必需在10月17日之前提高债务上限，否则就构成违约，两党在10月16日晚间达成协议，10月17日凌晨由时任总统奥巴马签字生效。道琼斯指数在10月1日下跌持续到10月9日，最大跌幅为2.15%，之后反弹。到10月17日两党达成协议后，道琼斯指数已经超过9月30日的高点。

      肆 美国主权债务评级和国债收益率       

      但如果评级机构借此机会下调美国的三A级评级，就有可能对市场造成较大冲击。比如2011年标准普尔将美国三A级债务评级下调，美国主权债务危机爆发，导致全球股市暴跌。标准普尔再次下调美国评级的可能性仍然存在。另外，美国国债收益率上周五上涨到1.4%以上。如持续上升会导致资金流出新兴市场。

        伍 中美关系

        随着华为高管归国，中美关系有所缓和。市场预期接下来美国有可能会取消对中国进口商品征收的关税。考虑到中国仍是美国国内政治斗争的一个焦点，短期应该不会见到关税取消。但中美关系的任何改善都有利于提高投资者的风险偏好。

        陆 上周港股熊冠全球

       上周A股和港股均下跌。港股恒生指数跌幅2.92%，熊冠全球。上证指数和深成指分别下跌0.02%和0.01%。欧美和其他新兴市场股市均上涨。

I. China official PMI 

A-share will stop trading from Oct. 1st to Oct. 7thand resume trading on Oct. 8th. HK market will stop trading on Oct.1st and resume trading on Oct. 4th. During the national holidays some economic data to be released and events might have an impact on the stock market. Before the national holidays China official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) and non-manufacturing PMI in October will be released on Sept 30th. This set of economic data will affect A-share  as well as European and the US stock markets, which will open after China’s stock market closes. This set of data might be not be very good as China’s economy is on the downward trend. Moreover, the pandemic and that local governments tried to limit power supply only exacerbate the situation. 

II. The US non-farm payroll

Second, the US non-farm payroll data in September will be released on Oct. 1st. If this data is in line with expectation, then the Fed would announce taper in Nov and then execute it in Dec. But if it is much  expected then it might cause the Fed to wait and see. 

III. Debt ceiling

The third is the debt ceiling discussion between the two parties in the US. While market understands that the two parties just try to get more benefits for themselves via the discussions about debt ceiling. It might cause the government to shutdown temporarily. In 2013, the US government shut down for due to the debt ceiling from Oct. 1st to Oct. 16th. During this period Dow Jones Index fell 2.2% maximum and then rebounded strongly. By Oct. 17th when the US government reached the deal on debt ceiling Dow Jones Index was higher than Sept 30th.  

IV. Rating downgrade and treasury yield

But if the rating agencies downgraded the US ratings then this would cause the world stock market to crash, just as what happened in 2011 when Standard Poor downgraded the US sovereign rating. The last is the US treasury yield, which has gone up above 1.4% last Friday. If it kept going up, capital might flow out of emerging markets to the US market.

V. Last week market summary

Both A share and HK stocks fell last week. Hang Seng Index fell 2.9%, the worst-performing index around the world. Other major markets in the world all went up. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 通胀对政府还债是有好处的

       美国上世纪经历了两次大规模的通胀，一次是20世纪40年代末，一次是60年代，发展到70年代成为有名的滞涨。通胀其实对政府偿还负债和利息都有很大帮助。根据《剑桥美国经济史》第三卷，1950年美国联邦债务占国民生产总值的比重为89.7%，占财政收入的比重为334%，而利息支付占财政收入的比重为11%。而通胀相当于向联邦债务的债权人以及联邦债券的持有者征收了高税率。通胀高企意味着名义收入快速增长，因此个人需要按照更高的税率纳税。美国利用这些多征收的税支付了朝鲜战争和越南战争的开支。同时，快速上涨的通胀使实际利率降到很低的水平，有时甚至达到负利率区间。由于较低的实际利率，联邦政府的利息占财政收入的比例在40年代下降到14%以下。之后持续下降，到80年代维持在10%以下。

       贰 关注利息负担而不是债务总额

       新冠疫情之后，美国政府大规模放水导致通胀高企。这些通胀对美国支付巨额债务利息无疑也是有很大帮助的。由于实际利率有可能长期为负（具体请参见这次也许不一样），美国政府需要支付的利息负担可以说是微不足道。美国财政部长耶伦在其任命的听证会上就指出：不要考虑负债总额，要看利息负担。利息负担的一个衡量指标是国债利息占GDP的比例。耶伦指出，由于低利率，当前美国的利息负担并不比2008年时候高。美国国债自2008年金融危机发生后直到新冠疫情之前已经从10万亿美金上涨到20万亿美金。美国政府依据现代货币理论解决新冠危机，以国家信用印钞票。截止2020年底，美国国家总负债上涨到26.9万亿美元。正如加州大学经济学教授罗伯特·温特布劳所言：美元是我们的货币，但却是你们的问题。

       叁 美元确实是新兴市场的问题

       近期，因美联储要缩表，新兴市场国家不断加息，以应对国内由于美元放水导致的通胀压力以及美元流动性缩减造成的资本外流压力。资本外流冲击对我国冲击有限，但是通胀确实是对我国经济和民生都造成了影响。如何解决通胀也是我们面临的一个难题。

        肆 也许是贝尔斯登时刻，而非雷曼时刻

       A股上涨，美股连续第二天大涨。美联储缩减债券购买计划符合市场预期，同时对中国某地产公司的担忧也大大缓解。市场意识到这也许是贝尔斯登时刻，但不是雷曼时刻。

I.High inflation means less debt burden

The US experienced mass-scale inflation in the 1940s and1960s. The inflation in the 1960s later led to stagflation in the 1970s. Inflation is actually good for governments to pay principal and interest as high inflation means higher taxes for those debtors of the government debt and holders of treasury. According to the Cambridge Economic History of the United States (Volume III), the US federal debt was 89.7% of GNP and 334% of fiscal revenue and the interest to be paid was 11% of fiscal revenue in 1950. Due to the high inflation the real interest was quite low and some times even negative. The ratio of interest to be paid to fiscal revenue came down to 14% in the 1940s. It kept going down to below 10% by the 1980s. Moreover, high inflation means that personal nominal income would rise fast to higher tax rate in progressive income tax system. The higher tax revenue supported both Korea War and Vietnam War. 

II. The key is interest burden not the total debt scale

In this COVID-19 crises, the US printed a lot of money, which caused inflation worldwide. But real interest rate would be maintained at very low levels due to the high inflation (details can be found in our previous article "这次也许不一样". Yellen,the Minister of Finance, pointed out in her nomination testimony to the congress that the ratio of interest to be paid to fiscal revenue is the key in evaluating debt burden and debt scale was not important. Before COVID-19 crises the US federal and local government debt has doubled since 2008 global financial crises from US$10 trillion to 20 trillion. It shot up to US$26.9 trillion by the end of 2020. 

III. The US dollar is the developing nations' issue

Just as the economic professor from California University Robert Winterblau said: the US dollar is our currency but your issues. Recently developing countries have increased interest rates to defend both igh inflation and capital outflow as the Fed is going to take back liquidity. Capital outflow might not be an issue for China. But how to deal with the high inflation is a dilemma for us.

IV. Not another Lehman Brother

A share rose slightly while the US stocks rallied for a second day.Market realized that Evergrande might be another Bear Stearns but not another Lehman Brother.  The Fed’s tapering was also in line with expectation.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。