壹 股市长牛的基础

      美国二战之后股市长牛的基础是科技创新。《剑桥美国经济史》第三卷分析了美国二战后的科技创新。一个很重要的推动者是美国二战时期最著名的科学家和工程师之一和“曼哈顿计划”的提出者范内瓦·布什。他在1945年的报告《科学：永无止境的领域》中指出基础研究是经济增长的最终源泉，提倡建立独立的联邦管理机构，负责所有国防和非国防领域的基础研究方面的投资，建议基础军事研究的发展方向是民用研究。

       贰 美国联邦政府大力投入基础研究

      二战后，美国联邦在国家研发总投资中占比巨大。1945到1969年，当时世界上除美国外最大的四个工业国家--德国、法国、英国和日本在研究与开发上的累计总投资为11.3万亿美元，而美国为25.6万亿美元。1995年，联邦政府投入到基础研究中的资金占总投资的58%。

        叁  大学在基础研究中发挥重要作用

        大学作为基础研究项目的承担者的重要性也提升了。统计显示，1996年美国大学承担了美国61%的基础研究项目。而新兴的小型公司在战后美国创新体制中发挥了重要作用。这主要是因为大学、政府和不少私营企业建立的大型基础研究部门孕育了技术创新，这些技术随着研究人员创立公司并将其商业化而走向社会。这种现象在生物技术、计算机和微电子领域特别明显。这些新兴公司的发展也离不开完备的私人融资体制，美国风险资本从20世纪50年代开始就对从事新兴技术的公司进行投资。

       肆 我国研发投入有提升空间

     对比美股，A股的长牛也离不开科技创新。2020年，我国在研发的投资为2.44万亿人民币，占GDP比例在2.4%。2019年，发达国家中研发占GDP比例最高的为韩国，为4.6%，其次为德国和日本，占比为3.2%，美国的占比为3.1%。但我国在基础研究方面的投入占比较低。2020年，我国在基础研发的投入为1504亿人民币，占总体研发投入的比例为6.2%，而美国这个比例约为15%。因此，我国无论在总体研发和基础研究的投入上都有较大提升空间。而中小公司也会在科技创新中发挥重要作用，专精特新小巨人是经济长青的基础和股市长牛的一个重要支柱。

       伍 市场综述

       A股上涨，美股大涨。美联储九月议息会议结束，宣布缩减债券购买计划将很快就会来到。市场预期联储11月份缩减债券购买计划，12月份实施。

I. The foundation of a long bull market

The long bull markets of the US stocks were supported by technology innovation. In the Cambridge Economic History of the United States (Volume III), authors analyzed the innovation of the US after World War II. Vannevar Bush, who is one of the most famous scientists and engineers in the US during WWII and brought up Mahhattan Plan, pointed out in his “Science: The endless frontier” that basic study is the source of economic growth and suggested to set up an independent agency to shoulder the investment in both military and civil basic study. He also suggested that basic study in military should be applied to civil use. 

II. The federal government invested big in basic study

After WWII, the federal government invested huge in basic study. From 1945 to 1969 the most avanced nations in the world at that time including France, Germany, the UK and Japan invested a total of US$ 11.3 trillion. As a comparison the US invested US$ 25.6 trillion. In 1996 the federal government contributed 58% of the total investment in basic study. 

III. Universities played a key role in basic study

Universities rose as a key role in basic study. In 1996 universities took up 61% of all of the basic study activities. Small companies contributed a lot to innovation, especially in medicine, electronic and computer sector. The reason is that those researchers in the universities brought their study results to commercial use by setting up small companies. Venture capital helped these start-ups a lot. 

IV. China's R&D investment has room to increase 

China’s research and development was 2.4% of GDP in 2020. Compared with 4.6% of South Korea, 3.2% of Germany and Japan and 3.2% of the US in 2019 our R&D has room to further increase. Moreover, our investment in basic study was only 6% of total R&D in 2020, compared with 15% of the US. We expect that the specialized, fined, peculiar and innovative little giants in China would also contribute to innovation and economic growth, just as their counter parties in the US. A long bull market with science as the solid foundation in A share would not be too far away. 

V. Market summary  

A share rose while the US stocks rallied.The September FOMC concluded and the Fed announced that tapering would come soon. Market expects the Fed to announce it in November and begin to execute it in December. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹港股大幅跑输全球主要指数

      恒生指数继7月份下跌9.94%，创下2018年10月以来最大月度跌幅，8月只是稍微喘了口气，9月截止21日又下跌了6.64%。恒生指数年初至今下跌11%。全球16个主要国家和地区指数年初至今只有三个是下跌的，分别为深成指、巴西指数和恒生指数。深成指和巴西指数分别下跌0.4%和8%。涨幅最高的俄罗斯和印度指数上涨22-23%。因此，恒生指数远远跑输全球主要指数。

       贰 多个行业指数估值处在20年最低水平

      恒生综合行业指数中很多估值都处在20年来的较低甚至最低水平。在恒生11个主要行业中，静态市盈率估值处在50%以上分位的只有医疗和非必需消费行业，分别处在历史上91%和62%的分位。而综合、原材料和工业处在历史上44%、39%和19%的分位。除去以上5个行业，其余6个行业均处在10%以下分位。具体来说，资讯科技业、能源、公用事业、金融、电讯、地产分别处在历史上8%、2%、1%、0.2%、0.2%和0.2%的分位。对于这些传统行业，这个历史可以追溯到2001年。

       叁 离岸市场

      港股估值如此之低一方面与其是离岸市场有很大关系，欧美机构投资者主导这个市场。一有风吹草动，这些投资人就会甩卖离场，先观望再做决策。

       肆 做空机制

      另一方面，也与沽空有很大关系。港股常年的沽空比例保持在10%左右。但当市场面临较大不确定时，沽空比率会迅速攀升。周一，港股市场沽空比例（沽空金额/可沽空股份成交额）为22.7%。因有香港地产商和内地地产商的负面消息，资金做空港股。周二，该比率下降到18.7%，当前沽空金额168.9亿港币，而可沽空股份成交金额为998.5亿。可沽空股份成交金额一般小于市场总体成交量，因为有些股票不能被做空。有国际知名投资人近期因中国出台的一些政策和发生的一些事件而明确表示做空中国股票，A股没有做空机制，所以，大量的空单都跑到了港股。

       伍 A股中秋假期之后怎么走？

      港股周一大跌，而周二上涨；美股周一大跌，周二小跌。市场关注美联储议息会议的结果和A股中秋假期后的表现。拭目以待。

I. HK market performed poorly 

Hang Seng Index fell 9.94% in July, the biggest monthly fall from Oct. 2018. It fell another 6.4% in September and fell 11% year-to-date by September 21st. Among the 16 global major stock indexes, it’s the worst-performing index. There are three indexes out of 16 that fell year-to-date, which are Shenzhen Composite Index and Brazil IBOVESPA Index along with Hang Seng Index. Shenzhen Composite Index and Brazil IBOVESPA Index fell 0.4% and 8.3% respectively year-to-date. As a comparison the best-performing index year-to-date are Russia and India stock index, which rose 23% and 22% respectively so far this year. 

II. Sectors' valuation are at 20-year lows

Among Hang Seng 11 composite sector indexes, six have a price-to-earnings valuation at 10% percentile historically. They are technology, energy, utilities, telecom, financial,and property, whose percentile are 8%, 2%, 1%, 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.2%. Some traditional sectors such as financial and property are valued from 2001, i.e.,their valuation are at 20-year lows.

III. An off-shore market

That HK market performed poorly is due to that it is an off-shore market. The investors that have pricing power in this market are those institutional investors from the European and the US. They would sell the market when there are any uncertainties. From July some policies that targeted equality and common wealth have caused panic among those investors. 

IV. Short mechanism is another reason

And short mechanism in HK market further exacerbates the situation. Some reknown international investors have announced that they are shorting Chinese stocks.A-share does not have short arrangements. So they put all of their shorting orders in HK market. The short ratio, which is the total shortable stocks’ trading value divided by short position, has been maintained at around 10% in HK market for years. Yet when risks loom, the ratio can go as high as more than 20%. On Monday this ratio shot up to 22.7% while on Tuesday it fell to 18.7%.

V. A-share is the focus after the Mid-Autumn festival

HK market recovered partially on Tuesday following big sell-off on Monday while the US stocks failed to rebound on Tuesday. Investors are watching how A-share will perform after the Mid-Autumn festival as well as the FOMC results, which would come out earlier Thursday morning in Asia time. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 港股大跌与香港地产商

      港股周一大跌，因受到香港地产和内地金融地产行业的拖累。《路透》早前引述三位主要地产开发商和一位知情本钢特区政府顾问，本港开发商被告知，要运用资源及影响力维护国家利益，更要回馈社会，协助解决住房短缺问题。

       贰 住宅供应增加是大趋势

      香港大地产商都囤积了大量土地。截止2019年底，香港五大地产商的土地储备总计为660万平米，占香港私人住宅用地面积的38.8%。香港住宅供应增加将是未来的大趋势。摩根·斯坦利今年4月曾发表报告称供应是压抑楼价上升及令住屋可负担的最有力工具，三个潜在解决供应的方案为农田转换、填海和增加地积比。其中农田转换近期已有所加快，如新地收购了古洞新发展区首块公开招标农地(历时15年规划)。

       叁 香港楼市或下跌

      摩根·斯坦利预估对地产商的最差情景为政府公布积极的供应目标，如由目前每年供应3.5万个增至超过10万个，则香港楼价至明年底估计或会下跌20%。其基本情景假设为今年楼价会上升9%，明年则升5%。如果楼市下跌，则地产商的利润也会承压。香港本地开发商周一股价跌幅都在10%左右。

       肆 外资怎么看某内地房地产公司

      瑞银估计该房地产公司债务规模在3130亿美金，其中190亿美金为境外债券。贝莱德、瑞银和汇丰是该房地产公司最大的境外债券持有者。周一汇丰的信贷违约掉期上升了16%。市场担忧该公司债务问题会传染到全球市场，甚至认为将会影响美联储的货币政策。也有分析师认为该公司债务只是中国的问题，政府会采用债转股等方式解决。彭博社报道，部分银行已经为该公司的倒闭做好了准备，通过计提坏账准备等。凯投宏观分析师认为从中国政府处理包商银行和2015年股灾和货币贬值事件中可以看出，中国政府会允许短暂的金融混乱，但最终都会出手平息大规模的债务拖欠。

       伍 市场综述

      周一欧美市场也大幅下跌，也侧面反应了投资者对风险传染的担忧。美联储的议息会议结果将会在周三出炉，市场在不安中等待其是否会开启缩减债券购买计划的消息。截止上周五，美股已连跌三周，有分析师认为当前为买入良机。

I. HK market crashed

HK market crashed on Monday. One reason is that HK local property developers were told to contribute to the welfare of society and could not maintain their monopolistic positions. This means that they would not have the high margin as previously. All of the HK property developers' stocks fell at around -10%. 

II. Housing supply is to increase 

Both analysts from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley believed that the best way to contain the high housing prices were to increase supply. The property developers have a big land reserve. By the end of 2019 the five largest property developers have a land reserve at 660 square meters,which is 38.8% of the total land supply for private housing market. The increase of housing supply is certain in the future.

III. Housing prices to fall

Morgan Stanley estimated that if government can increase property supply from current 35,000 to 100,000 the housing prices would drop 20%. But the base case scenario they assume is that housing prices would increase 9% this year and then 5% in2022. 

IV. International investors view a Chinese property company differently

UBS estimated that the property developer had US$313 billion debt with US$19 billion off-shore bond. Blackrock,UBS and HSBC are the largest off-shore bond holders of the company. HSBC’s Credit Default Swap, a derivative that measures risk of default, rose 16% on Monday. Some analysts worried that the debt issue would spread to the US and even make the Fed delay tapering. Others believed that this would be strictly a China issue.

V. Still no consensus so far 

Capital Economics thought that Chinese government would allow temporary crisis in financial conditions but would intervene in case of large-scale default.They judged this from both Baoshang Bank and the drop of equities and RMB currency in 2015. There is no consensus on this issue. Market is waiting for news on restructuring in the coming weeks. The European and the US market also crashed. Investors wait for the results of the FOMC, which will conclude on Wednesday

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 富可敌国的对冲基金

      塞巴斯蒂安·马拉比的《富可敌国》一书刻画了近代金融史上著名的对冲基金。这些对冲基金凭借管理人的能力做到了富可敌国。所有的对冲基金都曾经遭遇过重大挫败，而挫败的原因各不相同。

       贰 长期资本管理公司、老虎基金和量子基金

       像长期资本管理公司，它的失败不是由于衡量风险的方法过于简单，而是由于它想要对风险进行准确测量，而这是不可能实现的。有一些对冲基金规模太大，市场崩溃时没有办法跑掉。比如2000年互联网泡沫破灭时的量子基金和老虎基金。这两只基金在20世纪90年代末是美国最大的两只对冲基金，尽管他们当时的规模只有200亿美金。老虎基金奉行价值投资理念，认为科网股的泡沫迟早会破裂，因此重仓了美国航空公司。可随着美国航空公司的利润下降，股价在1999年初的三周内下跌了29%。由于老虎基金重仓该股票，很难抛售出来。老虎基金的风格就是重仓持有最多十只股票，在2000年互联网泡沫危机发生时，人人都知道他们持有的是什么股票。竞争对手选择在他们之前抛售这些股票。互联网泡沫直到2000年3月份才开始破灭，再次印证了凯恩斯所说的“市场保持非理性的时间总是比人们预期的长”。坚持价值投资的老虎基金被迫关闭。与老虎基金相反，量子基金是由于重仓科网股而在泡沫破灭后遭遇重大损失，不得不关闭。

        叁 风险和收益是对等的

        还有一些对冲基金购买了流动性不足的资产，在一个流动性不充分的市场中，会有大量的便宜货，但因为错误所付出的代价也常常是巨大的。纵观历史上成功的对冲基金，无论成功或者失败都是因为重仓某一股票或投资品种造成的。所以，投资里风险和收益总是对等的。想要收获多大收益，就要付出多大风险。总之，没有免费的午餐。

        肆  市场综述

        A股和港股再次下跌。港股本周再次遭遇股灾式下跌，指数全面跌破一倍净资产。房地产、互联网、博彩等板块遭到全面抛售。这应该是恒生指数历史上第四次跌破一倍净资产。历史上看，每次恒指破净后都会有表现较好的时期。A股因新能源板块下跌。大幅美股探底回升。虽然8月份的零售数据环比上涨超市场预期，但部分原因是因为调低了7月份的基数所致。投资人对9月份的市场表现仍然保持谨慎态度。

I. More money than God

In “More money than God” Sebatian Mallaby described how those famous hedge funds rose and fell. The funds that lost a big sum of money and were forced to be closed made the same type of mistakes.

II. Three hedge funds that went bust

Long-term capital management tried to price risks which turned out to be impossible. Some hedge funds were too big to escape from the market. Tiger Fund and Quantum Fund were among them. Tiger Fund was a value investor and held a big chunk of America Airline stock. When the airline’s profit began to turn negative the stock price fell 29% in three weeks. Tiger Fund could not sell it out due to its big exposure. Quantum Fund was a trend follower and exposed to internet stocks heavily before the internet bubble went bust. It could not escape from the bubble. Both funds were closed in 2000. 

III. Risk and return are associated closely

Other funds invest in assets that were not liquid. The pricing of these illiquid assets might imply big mistakes and when things changed the prices could fall sharply. From the ups and downs of these famous hedge funds we can see that risk and return are positively related in investment. The higher return one would like to pursue, the higher risk he or she needs to take. In a word there is no free lunch.

IV. Hang Seng Index fell to 1x PB

A-share and HK stocks fell. HK stock market suffered crash this week. Property, gaming and tech sectors all fell sharply.Hang Seng Index’s valuation fell to 1x price-to-book (PB) for the fourth timein history. Every time Hang Seng Index falls below 1x it would perform well for some time. A-share fell due to the rumors that raw material for new energy sector might be procured in centralized manner. This sounds unlikely given that China does not own much Li-mines. The new energy sector rose quite a lot thisyear and investors might take profit before the Mid-autumn Festival holidays. 

V. Investors in the US market are still cautious

The US stocks bottomed out. Retail sales in August rose 0.7% month-on-month versus down 0.8% expected. Yet the retail sales beat came after the intial estimate forJuly was revised down sharply from a month-over-month gain of 0.5% to a decline of 0.8%. Investors are still cautious about the market in September, which is historically performed poorly.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

      壹 库存周期

       库存周期的上行期通常对应股市的上涨，而库存周期的下行期通常对应股市的下跌。库存周期的下行期通常包括经济的滞涨期和通缩期。股市在滞涨期可能上涨也可能下跌，但是在通缩期一般而言都是下跌。

      贰 库存周期中股市的表现

     根据一位著名分析师的统计，从1996年到2011年五次库存周期的上行阶段，分别是1996年4月到1997年1月，1999年5月到2000年8月，2002年1月到2004年2月，2005年8月到2008年1月和2009年1月到2011年5月，上证指数分别上涨73%、78%、2.7%、299%和51%。而在五次库存周期的下行期，分别是1997年2月到1999年4月，2000年9月到2001年12月，2004年3月到2005年7月，2008年2月到2008年12月以及20011年6月到2012年8月，上证指数分别上涨16%、-18%、-35%、-58%和-25%。

       叁 特殊情况

       1997年2月到1999年4月的库存周期下行期，股市延续了1996年的牛市，是牛市的筑顶阶段，因此上涨。当时的经济和政策环境是消费者价格指数处在较低水平，货币政策相对宽松。而2002年1月到2004年2月的库存周期上行期，上证指数仅仅上涨了2.7%，主要是受到国有股减持和股权分置改革的相关制度性约束。

       肆 最近一轮库存周期

      我们判断最近的一轮库存周期上行期始于2020年2月，上行高点在2021年3月。在此阶段，通胀保持在较低水平，特别是消费者价格指数，没有明显过热的表现，经济增速也保持在一个合理稳健的水平。同期，股市上涨38%，幅度相对温和。当前股市处在库存周期下行期的滞涨阶段，终端需求较弱，而通胀高企，涨价是一个重要的主题。经济在滞涨之后将走向通缩，届时股市可能要进行较大幅度的调整，只有防御类股票才能获得相对收益。在库存周期的下行期，高估值股票面临较大压力。白马股春节后的调整印证了这一点。

      伍 市场综述

      A股和港股再次下跌。8月经济数据除了出口外，全面低于预期，其中既有疫情的影响，也有周期下行的压力。港股博彩股大幅下跌，因《新博彩法》咨询文本在赌牌数量、赌牌期限、博彩监管的法定要求、持股比例、推动非博彩业务发展等方面超出市场预期，强监管的趋势明显。美股大涨，市场似乎在从连续的下跌中走出来。

I. An inventory cycle and stock market 

The upward period of an inventory cycle usually corresponds to the stock market rally while the downward period of an inventory cycle corresponds to the stock market tumble. 

II.Study five inventory cycles in history

Based on the analysis of a famous analyst in China there were five upward periods of inventory cycles from 1996 to 2012. Shanghai Composite Index rose 73% (from April 1996 to Jan. 1997), 78%(from May 1999 to August 2000)、2.7% (from Jan. 2002 to Feb. 2004)、299%(from August 2005 to Jan. 2008) and 51%( from Jan. 2009 to May 2011) respectively. There were also five downward periods of an inventory cycle during the same period. Shanghai Composite Index rose 16% (from Feb 1997 to April 1999)，-18%( from Sept. 2000 to Dec. 2001)，-35% (from March 2004 to July 2005)，-58% (from Feb 2008 to Dec 2008) and- 25% (from June 2011 to August 2012) respectively. 

III. Two special cases

From Jan. 2002 to Feb. 2004 China began to implement state share sale reformation and the stock market performed poorly during this period. That’s why Shanghai Composite Index only rose 2.7% during this upward period. From Feb. 1997 to April 1999 the stock market was at the end of a bull market. That’s why it rose despite the economy was in a downward period of an inventory cycle. 

IV. The most recent inventory cycle 

We judge that the most recent upward period of an inventory cycle began in March 2020 and ended in March 2021. During this period the inflation in consumer side was moderate and economic growth was steady.Shanghai Composite Index rose 38%. Currently we are in the downward period an inventory cycle. It includes two stages, i.e., stagflation and deflation. In stagflation a key theme is price increase. High-valued stocks usually do not perform well during the downward period of an inventory cycle

V. Market summary 

A-share and HK stocks fell. Macau gaming stocks fell sharply as the new laws in consulting point to more strict supervision for gaming sector. The US stocks rallied after falling for more than a week. Market waits for August retail sales to judge the temperature of the economy.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 美国8月通胀回落

        美国8月份的消费者价格指数同比和环比涨幅均低于预期: 同比上涨5.3%，预期5.4%；环比上涨0.3%，预期0.4%。7月份消费者价格指数环比上涨0.5%，8月的环比涨幅较7月份也是回落的。但消费者价格指数的回落可能受到疫情的影响，因为飞机票价和酒店住宿价格分别较7月份下跌9.1%和3.3%。这也意味着一旦疫情好转，这些价格很可能再度上涨。

       贰 美国消费领域通胀更重要

      上周五发布的美国生产者价格指数同比涨幅超市场预期。作为一个消费占GDP比重高达80%的国家，市场对美国消费者价格指数的关注程度远高于生产者价格指数，制造业在美国经济中占比仅为12%。

       叁 我国生产领域通胀影响更大

       作为一个制造大国，原材料上涨对我国经济产生重大影响。因此，生产者价格指数的涨幅为政府和市场所关注。上周公布的我国8月生产者价格指数的同比涨幅达到2008年8月以来最高水平，从环比看还有加速上升的态势。我国消费者价格指数的涨幅当然也很重要。但一方面由于我国消费者价格指数在相当程度上是猪指数，而猪肉价格从今年年初以来持续下跌。因此，消费者价格指数同比涨幅一直保持在较低水平。另外，由于货币政策的松紧程度一定程度上受到消费者价格指数的制约。历史上看，只要消费者价格指数同比涨幅超过3%，货币政策就会倾向于收紧。

       肆 原材料价格可能长期保持高位

       近期，有研究表明铝的供应在未来五年不可能有大幅度改善，电解铝的价格有可能长时间保持在较高水平。周二澳大利亚锂精矿拍卖价格大幅超出市场预期，也再次点燃了新能源电池板块的行情。种种迹象表明，几乎所有上游原材料都受到供应方面的制约，价格会较长时间维持在较高水平。原材料价格上涨向下游传导需6-9个月的时间。考虑到上游原材料价格从今年年初开始就处在较高水平，消费者价格指数的上涨可能为期不远了。因此，通胀的回落也许仅是暂时的，上涨可能是长期的。

       伍 市场综述

      A股和港股均下跌。前期表现强势的周期股领跌，医药消费等白马股上涨。澳门博彩股连续第二天下跌，因政府要加强对该行业的监管。尽管通胀回落，美股仍收跌。标普500指数连续第六个交易日收低于开盘价，这是2020年2月以来的首次。

I. August inflation in consumer-side rose less than expected in the US 

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August came in lower than expected. CPI rose 5.3% year-on-year while 0.3% month-on-month versus 5.4% and 0.4% expected. In July CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month. Part of the fall was due to airfare and hotel prices, which fell 9.1% and 3.3% month-on-month respectively.In the US consumption takes up to 80% of GDP. Hence, inflation in consumer sectors has a big impact on the overall economy. Manufacturing is only 12% of the US GDP. Hence, inflation in producers’ side is not as important as in consumer side. 

II. Inflation in producer-side in China has a bigger impact

China is different from the US. Manufacturing takes more than one-third of GDP. Hence, inflation in producers’ side has a big impact on our economy. China’s Producers Price Index in August came in higher than expected at 9.5% year-on-year. It was the largest increase from August 2008. Yet due to supply constraints upstream raw material prices would be at high levels for years. China’s CPI is related with swine prices closely. Swine prices have been falling since the beginning of this year. As a result CPI has been maintained at a low level. CPI affects monetary policies. A rule of thumb is that once CPI rises higher than 3% year-on-year China’s monetary policy would strengthen. So now it is not the time to worry about monetary policy. 

III. The inflation is to be transmitted from producers to consumers

It is estimated that price increase would be transmitted from producer-sideto consumer-side in 6 to 9 months. Raw material prices rose to high levels at the beginning of this year. Hence, in 3Q we would see cost pressure in consumer products producers. So the fall of inflation might only be temporary while the rise of inflation would last for a long time.

IV. Market summary

A-share and HK stocks fell.Cyclical stocks tumbled.Macau gaming stocks fell for the second day in consecutive as government might impose more rules in this sector for its better development. The US stocks fell across the board. The SP 500 closed lower than its opening for the sixth trading day in a row, the first time from February 2020. The US 10-year treasury yield fell below 1.3% despite that the Fed might taper soon. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。