壹 康波是什么？

        在上世纪二十年代，前苏联学者尼古拉·康德拉季耶夫提出，在资本主义经济生活中存在着45~60年的长期波动。这种长期波动被人们称为康德拉季耶夫周期，也称康波，它通常对应着技术创新。一位已故著名经济学家曾经说过“人生发财靠康波”的名言，使康波深入人心。

        贰 康波在中国宋代

        《白银资本》的作者德国人贡德·弗兰克研究发现其实在中国宋代就存在康波。从930年到1250年共320年间，中国一共经历了4个连续的康波，分别对应着印刷术和造纸术，这都是中国人的创新。

        叁 中国是创新主导国

        虽然有学者认为宋代之后技术创新转移到了欧洲，但弗兰克认为事实并非如此。第5个到第12个康德拉季耶夫周期分别对应着黑海贸易、威尼斯大帆船舰队、胡椒、几内亚黄金、印度香料、波罗的海-大西洋贸易。第13 和14个周期分别对应着种植园和美洲-亚洲贸易。在5-14个康德拉季耶夫周期中，弗兰克认为第6-14个周期除了几内亚黄金和波罗的海-大西洋贸易，其余的康波都与中国有关。欧洲的创新是欧洲人争取从亚洲的经济活动中心谋取好处的漫长努力的反应，是中国经济渗透发挥的作用。康波中有主导国和创新的提法。无疑，中国在宋代始的几个世纪都应该是世界创新的主导国。第6个周期开始于1250年，第14个周期开始于1688年，结束于1740年。因此，中国至少在17世纪之前都是世界的经济和贸易中心。

        肆 衰落是暂时的

       由于中国在瓷器、丝绸和茶叶市场上的竞争优势，直到19世纪初中国还保持贸易顺差。瓷器的英文CHINA也就是中国的意思，也在一定程度上印证了中国当时的竞争优势。弗兰克认为由于中国的生产效率、人口增长速度和制度优势使得其在历史上长久保持世界中心的地位。中国在19世纪和20世纪的衰落只是历史长河中的短暂一瞬，终将重新引领世界。

      伍 市场综述

      A股上涨，港股下跌。港股科技股下挫，因政府要求美团等平台企业保障劳动者权益。周期股领涨两市。美股道指和标普500上涨，结束了连续5个交易日的下跌。美国新冠7天平均新增病例环比前一周下跌。但上周五发布的8月份生产价格指数同比上涨8.3%，为2010年10月以来的最高涨幅。周二晚将会发布8月份消费者价格指数数据。

I. What is Kondratiev cycle? 

Kondratiev cycle was brought up by Russia famous economist Nikolai Kondratiev. It refers to a long economic cycle that can last up to 40-60 years and is usually caused by technology innovation. A reknown economist in China ever said that one can only make a fortune by relying on Kondratiev cycle. 

II.Kondratiev cycle in China

Gunder Frank, a Germany economist, wrote in his popular book “Reorient-Global Economy in the Asian Age” that Kondratiev cycles had existed in China since the Song Dynasty. From 930 to 1250 there were four Kondratiev cycles in China,which corresponded to printing and paper-making technology innovation. The following 5th to 12th Kondratiev cycle corresponded to trade in Black Sea, Venetian galleon, pepper, Guinea gold, perfume in India, and trade between Baltic Sea and the Atlantic. The 13th and 14th Kondratiev cycle was caused by plantation and trade between the America and Asia. 

III. China had long been the centre of innovation

Frank considered that except Guinea gold and trade between the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic, the other Kondratiev cycles were related with China. So he refuted the idea that innovation centre shifted to Europe after the Song Dynasty and believed that China has remained as the world economic center until the 18thcentury. China has enjoyed competitive advantage in production efficiency,population growth and advanced rules and arrangements. As a matter of fact China had maintained its competitive advantage in china, silk and tea and enjoyed trade surplus until early 1900s. Frank believed that China has long been the center of the world economy and innovation and considered that the setbacks in the 19th and 20th century as a short-term phenomenon. He expects China to come back soon. So do we.

IV. Market summary

A-share rose while HK stocks fell.Internet platform companies such as Meituan fell sharply on Monday as government required these companies to provide social security welfare to their employees. DOW and SP 500 rose, snapping a five-day losing streak. The average 7-day COVID-19 new cases last week fell week-on-week.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

        壹 美元将走强

      美联储很有可能在9月21、22日的议息会议后宣布缩减债券购买规模的决定。市场预期我国央行将在10月份降准。一紧一松，中美两国的货币政策将走向相反的两个方向。从汇率的角度看，如果美国收紧流动性，对美元是有上行推动力的。但美元上行的幅度会有多大呢？或者反之人民币贬值的幅度会在多少？我们在这次也许不一样中分析过：由于通胀的高企，美国的实际利率可能较长时间保持在较低水平，这也意味着美元的上涨将不会有较强的支撑。

        贰 幅度也许有限

       当然汇率不仅与货币流动性相对强弱有关，也受到两国经济增长的相对强弱影响。从经济增长的角度看，美国经济很有可能在3季度达到此轮增长的顶点，此后将会下行。而中国经济在今年3月份达到增长的顶点，此后就开始下行。从库存周期的角度看，美国经济的下行周期通常在12个月。因此，明年3季度大概率是美国经济的最低点。而从历史看，中国经济下行周期通常持续一到两年，因此经济增速的最低点最快有可能在明年2季度触及，最晚有可能在2023年达到（具体请参见2021年A股投资展望，其中对中美两国的库存周期有比较详细的论述）。所以，未来中美两国经济都可能处在下行阶段中。综合考虑，美元上行的幅度可能是有限的，意味着人民币贬值的空间也不会很大。

        叁 中国支持性政策不断出台

        近期国家出台各种政策以支持经济发展。社融增速可能在年底之前同比增速会持续下行，但广义货币同比增速触底应该是大概率事件。虽然未来随着经济增速再下台阶，广义货币有可能会再次突破8%的最低同比增速水平，但这应该是一个平缓的过程，近期不会看到。政策支持下，经济应不会太差，股市还有很多机会。

       肆 美股和A股今年表现差异较大

       进入9月份，各家投行纷纷下调标普500年底前的目标价，认为在新冠疫情的冲击下，美国经济将会走弱，美股年底前或面临10%左右的调整。但年初以来我国资本市场与美股的表现差异巨大，美股如调整对A股和港股市场的冲击应是有限的。

       伍 上周市场综述

     上周A股和港股在全球涨幅居前。上证指数和深成指分别上涨4.2%和3.4%，在全球16个主要国家和地区指数涨幅居第2和第3位。美股道指连续下跌5天。

I.The US dollar would appreciate 

Market now expects that the Federal Reserve would announce taper at the FOMC on Sept 22nd this year and begin to implement it before the end of this year. In the mean time many analysts predicted that the People's Bank of China would cut bank reserve rate in October to boost the slowing economy. So China and the US would diverge in monetary policy with the US to strengthen it while China to loosen it. In this case the US dollar would appreciate and the RMB would depreciate. In “This time could be different(这次也许不一样)” we have pointed out that due to the high inflation the real interest rate in the US might be maintained at low levels. Hence, the US dollar would not appreciate as much as previous. 

II.But not that much

But how much the US dollar appreciates and the RMB depreciates also depends on the economy growth rate of the US and China. China’s economy reached its peak level in March this year and the US economy is expected to reach the top in 3Q2021. After that both China and the US economy would come down for some time. In the US the economy slow-down in an inventory cycle usually takes 12 months, i.e., the US economy would likely reach its lowest point of growth rate in 3Q2022. And China’s economy would take one or two years to get to the bottom, which is 1H2022 or early 2023. In short economy growth rate does not support a very strong US dollar as well as a very weak RMB. 

III. A-share would not go down with the US stocks

Moreover, China has implemented many policies to stimulate economy. The broad monetary supply(M2)  growth rate has been at a very low level and would not go further lower in the near term. Fiscal policies are becoming more accomodative. Recently many houses in the US downgraded SP 500 price target at the end of this year due to Delta variant and the likely taper.Yet year-to-date the US and China stock markets performed quite differently. We do not expect that the US market correction would have a negative impact on both A-share and HK stock markets.

IV. A-share and HK stocks led the global markets last week

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last week. Among the 16 major indexes globally Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index were ranked at the second the third in terms of rise range. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 上一轮超级周期

      大宗商品的超级周期是指大宗商品价格长期且大范围的持续上涨。从上世纪初至今一共有4轮大宗商品的超级周期。最近这轮大宗商品的超级周期起始于1999年，在2008年达到最高点。之后开始了长达12年的下跌，直到2020年4月达到此轮周期的最低点。以CRB大宗商品指数衡量，CRB指数在此轮周期的上行阶段累计上涨了3倍多一点，而在下行阶段下跌了67%。各种商品在超级周期的上涨阶段涨幅不一。原油上涨了14倍，铜上涨了6.6倍，黄金也上涨了6.6倍。但原油是2008年达到历史高点的，而铜和黄金则是在2011年，2011年是大宗商品价格的次高点。

     贰 中国因素推动

    上一轮大宗商品的上涨主要是由于中国加入WTO之后，受益于全球化红利，制造业投资和需求强劲增长。同时，国内房地产和基建需求旺盛。这些因素一起推动了一轮大宗商品的上涨。

     叁 对此轮周期的争议

     去年4月大宗商品价格创出10年左右新低之后开启强势上涨。一些分析师认为大宗商品超级周期卷土重来。但也有一些分析师持与之不同的观点，认为大宗商品价格的上涨只是货币推升和结构性短缺情况下的短期现象。由于新能源转型还需要持续数年，其对大宗商品所产生的额外需求不足以推动一轮超级周期。

     肆 也许是不一样的周期

     那么这次有没有超级周期呢？目前为止，还看不到全球对大宗商品需求的强劲增长。但随着各国经济复苏，对大宗商品的需求也在温和复苏。同时，大宗商品价格在经过数年的下跌之后，产能已经去化到较低的水平。而疫情对大宗商品的供给又产生了抑制作用。因此，我们判断此轮大宗商品的价格取决于边际供给和需求的变化。这可能是此轮大宗商品超级周期（如有）区别于以前超级周期的地方。

      伍 市场综述

      A股上涨，港股下跌。港股互联网企业因被约谈而大幅下跌，带动整体市场大幅调整。港股当前估值处在历史较低水平，我们认为投资价值已经显现。具体请参见现在可以开始和港股做时间的朋友。中国8月消费者价格指数同比低于预期，因生猪价格继续回落。而生产者价格指数同比上涨超预期。市场对滞涨担忧加剧，黄金股票在数据公布后上涨，大宗商品股票全天领涨A股和港股。因投资人担忧经济增长前景，美国股票连续第四天下跌。但上周初次申请失业救济人数回到2020年3月时的水平，显示就业恢复良好。

I. The last super cycle 

The super cycle of commodities refers to that commodity prices rise for a long period and across the board. There have been four super cycles of commodities since the beginning of last century. The most recent super cycle started in 1999 and reached the peak levels of prices in 2008. CRB commodity index rose more than 300% over this period and then began a 12-year decline until April 2020, when it finally reached the lowest point of this cycle and fell 67% in total. All of the commodities rose during the rising period of the super cycle but at different range. Oil rose 1500% from 1999 to 2008 when it reached the highest price at US$147 per barrel. Copper and gold rose 600% respectively but reached the highest point in 2011, which saw the high of CRB Index only second to the peak in 2008.

II. China drove the last cycle

This recent super cycle was driven by China demand. In 2001 China joined WTO and began to take part in global trade and manufacturing. This promoted investment in manufacturing. Moreover, with the economy booming demand for infrastructure and property also rose fast. All of these helped a super cycle of commodity. 

III. Likely a different cycle 

Currently we do not see the strong demand for commodity as that in the last super cycle. However, with 10-year plus commodity prices decline, commodity production capacity has been cut off to relatively low levels. Moreover, pandemic disrupted commodity production from time to time. Yet with the economy recovery from the pandemic going on the demand for commodity is increasing at a moderate rate. So this time if there is a commodity super cycle, it would be determined by the marginal changes of supply and demand. This might be the difference of this super cycle from the previous ones. 

IV. Market summary

A share rose while HK stocks fell. HK stocks fellsharply as gaming and media companies were summoned by government. We have pointed out that HK stocks are valued at low levels from history. And it might be a good timing to bottom fish in the HK market. The US DOW fell for the fourth day in a row as investors worried about Delta variant. The European Central Bank announced that it would slow the pace of pandemic bond-buying program in 4Q2021. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

       壹 创新行业引领市场

       近期市场上元宇宙概念股表现出色，投资人也纷纷学习了解元宇宙这个突如其来的概念。威廉·欧内尔在《笑傲股市》一书中指出：强势行业孕育超级牛股，顺应行业趋势至关重要。对于一个创新主导的经济体，新兴创新者通常会引领市场。这在美国股市上得到验证。

       贰 创新随时代而变化

      从美国股票历史看，强势行业跟随创新的趋势而变化。在上世纪50-60年代，航空航天曾经多年独领风骚。上世纪80年代到2000年，计算机、食品医药等为强势行业。牛市中的主导行业通常会产生外溢效应。20世纪60年代末，航空产业由于喷气式飞机的引进而进入复兴时期，航空公司股票暴涨。

       叁 创新具有外溢效应

       航空公司的增长在持续几年后外溢到酒店业，游客对住宿需求的增加使酒店业股票强势上涨。20世纪90年代，随着互联网的腾飞，消费者对网络访问速度和带宽的需求增加。网络产业的股票暴涨，而专供光纤产业的公司股票也随之上涨。欧内尔将上述情况称为股市里的跟进效应。还有一种被称为亲戚股票，这在制造业中很常见。比如20世纪60年代随着航空需求的崛起，波音公司出售了大量喷气式飞机。每一个喷气式飞机都有一个莫纳格莱姆公司制造的洗手间。该公司利润上涨了2倍，股票最高上涨了10倍。

      肆 A股的创新行业

      A股市场也是创新行业引领市场。跟进效应和亲戚股票现象在A股里也比比皆是。比如A股中航空和酒店通常表现一致：航空好，则酒店也表现好。反之亦然。元宇宙概念股中也能看到跟进效应：游戏产业股票表现好，光纤产业股票也表现好，因为VR、AR游戏对带宽有较高要求。随着新能源和光伏产业的火爆，不仅锂电池股票表现较好，制造新能源电池和光伏材料的原材料价格都强势上涨。创新行业引领市场，经常会给人以“萧瑟秋风今又是，换了人间”的感觉。但如果没有业绩支撑，炒作终将停止。

      伍 市场综述

      A股和港股下跌。科创50跌幅1.8%，创业板指跌近1个百分点，上证指数微跌。港股博彩股涨幅领先，因粤澳新通道青茂口岸周三开通。随着粤港澳继续开放通关，低估值的博彩股有望持续受益。美股道指连续第三天下跌，纽约联储主席发表讲话认为年底前开始缩减债券购买是合适的举措。

I. Innovation sectors led the market rally 

Mettaverse-concept stocks have rallied recently in A-share. Investors participated in meetings and conferences to learn about the new concept. In his popular book “How to make money in stocks ” William O’neil pointed out that strong-performing sectors lead stock markets and to follow the market trend is key to make money. Those strong-performing sectors are usually innovation-driven.

II. Innovation sectors change from time to time 

At different times innovation drives different sectors. In the 1950 to 1960s, airlines led the market rally. From 1980 to 2000, computer sector was one of the best-performing sectors that drove the broad market. 

III.Spill-over effects

These strong sectors usually have spill-over effects. Take the example of airline sector in the last 1950-60s. Due to that jets were created airline sectors grew very fast. The travelling demands from consumers eventually pushed up demands for hospitality.  Hotel sector benefited and rallied along with the airline stocks. In the 1990s, with the booming of internet sector demands for internet speed and band grew very fast. The internet stocks rallied and those companies who provided optical fiber and cable rose as well. O’neil called the above phenomenon as follow-on effect. There is another effect which he called cousin stocks, which is especially true in manufacturing sector. While jets became popular in the 1960s, every jet had atoilet manufactured by Monagramm. The company saw its earnings grow 2 times andstock prices rose 10 times. 

IV. The same in A-share

In A-share both follow-on effect and cousin stocks exist. When mettaverse stocks rose, those fiber and cable producers' stocks also rallied. In new energy sector, the battery producer stock rallied. And its raw material providers’ stocks also rose quite a lot. It seems to investors that the market changes fast. But once these companies’ earnings growth slow down the stocks also lose momentum to go up.

V. Market summary

A share and HK stocks fell. STAR50 Index and Chinext Index fell 1.8% and 0.97% while Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly.The US DOW Index fell for the third day. Biege Book showed that economy moderated in July and August due to Delta variant. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

        壹 8月份进出口数据超预期

        8月份出口数据超市场预期，出口以美元计同比上涨25.6%，超出是市场预期的17.1%，也高于7月份的19.3%。对各个国家和地区的出口都有增长，但最主要的是对欧盟的出口增速较高。进口同比上涨33.1%，也超市场预期。

        贰 经济也许不太差

       一方面海外疫情尤其是东南亚疫情导致部分订单转移到国内，另一方面，因为运力受限，部分国内和海外订单提前。半导体等产品的出口增速也较快。8月份数据显示出口仍是经济增长的动力。超预期的出口也许意味着我国经济可能并不太差。海外疫情连绵不断造成供应链被打破，我国当前可能是全球唯一能够保持正常生产的国家。如果出口持续超预期，我国经济在3、4季度下行的速率可能会很平缓。

         叁 全球通胀超预期

        欧元区通胀率已经达到3%，为10年来的最高水平。德国消费者价格指数上涨3.9%，为1993年12月以来的最高水平。德国在魏玛共和国时期曾经发生过恶性通货膨胀。因此，德国从那之后一直把通胀视作大敌。当前无论是美联储还是欧央行都认为通胀是暂时的，因为通胀中的较大上升来自于供应链的破坏。但这个暂时要持续多久没有人知道。欧美疫情控制不力很可能使供应链再次遭到打击。同时，很多大宗商品价格持续飙升，对通胀也构成压力。

        肆 央行如何应对？

        如果通胀不是暂时的，则各国央行面临较大挑战。如果过早收回流动性，经济复苏将会夭折。欧央行在2008年全球金融危机之后就曾经犯过这样的错误，导致欧洲经济陷入二次衰退。但如果落后于通胀，则通胀有失控的风险。经济不那么差，通胀可能会很高，这种情况下我国央行会如何应对呢? 也许市场期待的对经济支持的政策要等得更久一点。

       伍 过去几年美股九月份是上涨的

       因8月出口数据超预期，A股和港股上涨。上证指数已经逼近前期高点，有策略师看到4000点。美股因担忧Delta疫情的负面影响而下跌。高盛调低美国2021年经济增速预测至5.7%，市场普遍预期在6.2%。摩根·斯坦利将美国股市评级下调到低配，认为9、10月份股市将会面临调整压力。9月份历史上看确实是一个调整的月份，但是过去几年9月份都是上涨的。

I. Export-import data was better than expected 

China export in August jumped 25.6% year-on-year, better than 17.1% expected and higher than 19.3% in July. Export grew across the board but thatto Europe grew the fastest. Import grew 33.1%, higher than expected as well.The better-than-expected import-export data was because that overseas orders shifted from Southeast Asia to China as COVID-19 pandemic made countries in Southeast Asia hard to organize mass production. Moreover, due to the shipping challenges orders for the Christmas festival were made earlier than previous. Export growth in China could be maintained at a relatively high level in the remaining four months of this year. This is mainly due to the pandemic. Around the world only China can control the spread of Delta variant in an efficient way. As such the 3rd and 4th quarter economic growth might not slow down too much in China. 

II. Inflation is higher than expected

Yet inflation is still a concern around the world. Germany saw its Consumer Price Index (CPI) inAugust rose 3.9% year-on-year, the highest reading from Dec. 1993. The CPI in Euro-region reached 3% year-on-year, the highest in 10 years. Germany ever suffered hyperinflation in history. Hence, policy makers in Germany always take inflation as their top policy target.

III. Challenges for central banks 

However, at this moment both the Federal Reserve in the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) consider inflation as transitory.Yet, it is hard to make it clear how long the transitory inflation would last.This actually poses big challenges for these policy makers. ECB made a mistake in 2011 by withdrawing supporting policies earlier and caused the Euro-region tobe in depression for the second time after 2008 global financial crises. This time they wowed not to make the same mistake. Yet given the high inflation,they might risk acting too late. For China if economy is better than expected,then the supporting policies might come later than expected.

IV. Market summary

The better-than-expected export-import data in August boosted both A-share and HK stocks. DOW and SP500 fell due to concern on the pandemic.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

        壹 护城河是指什么？

       1999年，沃伦巴菲特在《财富》杂志发表了一篇文章，谈到了护城河，并指出“被宽阔的、长流不息的护城河所保护的产品或服务能够为投资者带来烽火的回报”。企业的护城河包括无形资产（品牌、专利和监管牌照）、成本优势、顾客粘性、规模效应和进入壁垒等方面。

        贰 护城河五要素

       无形资产和成本优势都比较好理解。顾客粘性在很大程度上是指顾客使用产品的转换成本。如果转换成本很高，一般顾客很难转换。比如一些手机零部件生产企业，通常在手机品牌商开始设计产品时就参与进来，这种情况下被换掉的概率较低。当然也不排除表现不太好的被淘汰的可能性。规模效应就是指增加新的客户对企业带来的额外生产成本是递减的。通常，规模越大，企业的生产成本越低。当然规模效应是有边界的。比如养奶牛的牧场可能几千头是合适的规模。万头牧场所带来的环境污染以及对草场的压力就会大很多，所以，规模大反而不经济，适度最好。进入壁垒通常是指巨额的资本投入或销售费用的投入。比如芯片行业的投资动辄上千亿美金，这就带来了很大的进入壁垒。

      叁 护城河被打破了？

     如果一家公司能够通过竞争优势，维持至少10年赚取超额收益的能力，则该公司拥有比较宽广的护城河。但护城河不是静态的，而是动态发展的。年初至今，一些拥有宽广护城河的公司跌幅较大。他们的护城河被打破了吗？护城河其实没有被打破，但某些方面确实变得不那么具有竞争力了。比如一家医药公司，其研发费用占收入的比例一直保持在双位数，研发能力保持在市场前列。但是，由于药品集采失利，研发能力无法体现到盈利上，导致企业的业绩低迷，被投资者抛售。再比如一家食品饮料公司，其品牌优势明显，但是由于产品价格高企导致客户粘性下降，市场担心这会影响未来的成长性。因此，有了护城河并不是一劳永逸，企业还需要不断地努力以保持护城河的宽度和深度。否则，就有短期股价大幅调整的风险。

      肆 全球股市上涨

     A股和港股在消费医药股带领下大幅反弹，美股因劳动节休市。8月份中国经济数据即将发布，值得关注。

I. What is the moat?

In 1999 Warren Buffett published a famous article in Fortune magazine, in which he pointed out that a company with a broad moat that can last for a long time can make a lot of money for investors. The so-called moat of a company includes intangible assets such as brands, patents and supervision rules, cost advantage, viscosity of customers, scale effects and entry barriers. 

II. Five elements of a moat 

Intangible assets and cost advantage are easy to understand. A type of viscosity of customers refers to the high costs for a customer to shift to another producer or service provider. A case in point is in mobile components and parts producers. They usually participate in the mobile phone design of mobile brands from the beginning and adjust their production accordingly. Mobile brands would face big cost to shift to other components and parts producers. Scale effects are also familiar to investors. Yet scale effects have boundaries. It is not the truth that the bigger the scale the better the results. Take the example of raising milk cows, a couple of thousands milk cows have scale effects. But 10 thousand orabove would cause environmental issues and put a pressure to the grasslands. A type of entry barriers refer to big capital expenditure. This is especially true in foundry sector, in which US$ 100 billion capital expenditure is not unusual. 

III. The moat can change

The moat is not static but changes from time to time. Year-to-date stock prices of some companies with broad moats have fallen sharply, implying  that their moats are not strong in some aspects. Take the example of an innovative drug producer it has maintained its research and development cost to its sales ratio at double digits for years and enjoy competitive advantages in innovation drugs. However, due to that it lost in bids to national mass procurement of drugs its innovation advantage can not be turned into profits. In summary a company should make efforts to maintain its moat as long as possible.

IV. Global stock markets rose 

A share and HK stocks rose.Healthcare and food and beverage sector led the rally. The US stock market closed for Labor Day holiday.  

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。