壹 第一重--买什么股票？

      我们认为A股市场的迷茫主要来自于三个方面。首先，是买什么股票的迷茫。在经济下行期，找到景气板块不是很容易。所以，资金持续涌入一些热门板块，造成这些板块的估值处在较高水平，有可能随时面临调整的风险。近期，这些人们板块确实有了一定幅度的回调，在一定程度上也验证了高估值板块存在的风险。而传统板块随着股价持续的低迷估值确实到了较低的水平，但是基本面短期看还没有明确的催化剂。A股市场的一些机构半年要考核一次。如果这些低估值板块在半年内无法表现，一定会拖累业绩。去年的热门赛道今年也遭遇大幅下跌，但是估值并没有到低估的程度。所以，买什么呢？这是第一重迷茫。

       贰 第二重--市场向上还是向下

       其次，对未来整体市场走势的迷茫。近期，A股成交量巨大，但股指并没有什么表现。有分析认为部分原因是机构调仓导致。不论原因如何，如果根据以往的经验，成交量放大一定会伴随股指的上涨。而这一次却与以往不同。未来整体市场的方向是向上还是向下？这是第二重迷茫。

       叁  第三重--经济怎么样？

       最后，对经济的迷茫。8月份的领先经济指标包括官方制造业和非制造业采购经理人指数以及财新制造业和非制造业采购经理人指数均低于预期。虽然疫情的冲击是一部分原因，但是经济趋势下行也是明确的趋势。市场关心的一方面是此次经济下行的幅度会达到多少；另一方面，支持性政策何时出台以及政策的力度会有多大。这些都影响投资者对板块的配置以及个股的选择。此为第三重迷茫。

       肆 投资未来

       重重迷茫之下如何选择好的投资机会呢？首先，投资人要清楚投资是投资未来。选择低估值并且未来基本面有催化剂的品种是不错的选择。即使参与热门赛道，也要选择基本面扎实并且估值有业绩支撑的股票。适用于成长股的一个估值方法是PEG，即市盈率与公司业绩增速的比值。一般这个业绩增速可以选取过去三年的年平均利润增速。如果PEG大于1，股票的估值较较高。反之，股票具有投资价值。

      伍 缩减债券购买似乎渐行渐远

       美国8月份非农就业数据大幅低于预期。市场降低9月美联储宣布缩减债券购买计划的预期，而期望在11或12月份宣布缩减债券。但如果美国疫情一波一波又一波，何时能够开启缩减债券恐怕会变得遥遥无期。

I. The first haziness 

There is three-type haziness among investors. The first is that investors are confused about what to buy. Those sectors in hot good-tracks are valued at hefty levels and are faced with risks of falling sharply at a sudden. As a matter of fact some stocks in chips and new energy sector did correct over the last couple of weeks. Those in traditional sectors are valued at historical low levels. However, with the economy going down it might take some time for these sectors to perform. 

II. The second haziness 

The second is that which direction the general market would go, up or down. Recently trading volume is huge. Yet different from the previous periods stock index did not move much. Some analysts owe this to that institutional investors are transferring positions from high-valued sectors to low-valued sectors. No matter what caused this phenomenon, investors want to wait until market chooses its direction and then buy stocks. 

III. The third haziness 

The last but not the least is that investors are confused about the economy direction. While the overall economy is on a downwards trend,investors want to know how much it would come down and when the supporting policies could come out and at what scale. 

IV. To invest in the future 

The triple haziness implies big uncertainties of stock market. It is undoubtedly very challenging to do investment amid uncertainty. We suggest investors to remember that investment is to invest in the future. And it would work well in any kind of situations to buy those undervalued stocks with fundamentals to improve in the future. For those who love growth stocks, a valuation matrix might help you. This is called PEG,which is price-to-earnings ratio divided by compound annual growth rate of earnings over the last two years. If PEG is bigger than 1, then the stock lacks investment value. If it is lower than 1, then the stock has investment value.

V. Taper is endless to come

August non-farm payroll in the US came in much lower than expected. The probability that the Fed would announce taper in November or December has increased. However, if the pandemic in the US goes on one wave after another,  it might be difficult for the Fed to taper in the foreseeable future.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

 壹 低利率孕育牛市

      悉尼·霍莫在其著名的著作《利率史》中说过一句话：利率是任何经济体的体温计。利率不仅是衡量经济体的重要指标，而且与股市也紧密相关。一般来说，利率上涨，股市下跌；而利率下跌，股市上涨。美国上世纪两次长牛都是在低利率的环境下出现的。20世纪50年代，美国的实际短期利率一直在1.4%的低位。1949年到1956年美国股市开启了一波长牛。到了80年代，美国10年期国债收益率从最高接近16%下降到5%，股市也开启了一波轰轰烈烈的牛市。

      贰 投资债券还是股票要看利率

      有投资人不理解为什么利率和股市是负相关的关系。投资人在投资时，可以投资债券，也可以投资股票。当债券利率较低的时候，投资人就会选择投资股票；而当债券利率高时，投资人就会投资债券。所以，在大类资产配置中，投资股票还是债券是最先考虑的问题。

      叁 我国过去利率水平偏高

      利率和股市的关系适用于全球，A股市场也不例外。我国10年期国债收益率过去20年在2.5-4.5%之间徘徊，表面上看利率水平并不高。但实际利率水平远高于此。温州地区民间综合融资利率（“温州指数”）从2012年至今一直保持在双位数，2012年最高达到21%。这一方面是由于拉动经济增长的行业需要大量资金，如房地产；另一方面，中小企业一直面临融资难、融资贵的难题。

      肆 未来有望持续走低

      但随着央行推动降低对中小微企业的实际贷款利率，中央对房地产企业的三条红线政策的逐步推进以及对影子银行的清理和整治，中国实际利率已经开始走低。根据GDP平减指数计算的2021年6月份的实际贷款利率已降到1.08%，达到10年的新低。而温州指数也从21%降到最近13-16%的水平。

      伍 A股也有希望天天涨

      这对股市而言无疑是好消息。近期，股市放量滞涨，人们猜测股市的资金来自哪里。其实，只要利率持续下降，各路资金都会来到股市。随着中国治理整顿金融市场中的各种乱象，未来利率水平会持续下降。期待A股能像美国股市那样天天上涨也许不是一个奢望。

       陆 A股的好消息来了

       北京交易所成立利好股市。专精特新中小企业、券商以及相关IT企业将会受益。A股和港股周四均上涨，低估值股票引领市场，而高估值的半导体、光伏和新能源持续调整。美国上周申请失业救济人数好于市场预期，美股再创新高。

I. Interest rates and stock markets 

In his popular book “A history of interest rates” Sidney Homer said a famous sentence: “Interest rate is the thermometer of an economy”. In fact, interest rate is not only essential to economic growth but also determines stock market trends.In general, when interest rate is down stock market would rise and vice versa. Some might wonder whey interest rate and stock is negatively correlated. This is because bond and stock can be substitute of each other. When an investor wants to invest, he or she can invest in bond or stock. If interest rate is higher,he would choose bond. Otherwise, he would choose stocks. Hence, it is the foremost thing in asset allocation to determine which one should be invested more, bond or stocks. 

II. Interest rates in China were at high levels in the past

This negative correlation between interest rate and stocks apply to the world including China. While 10-year treasury yield of China has been around 2.5-4.5% over the last 20 years, the real lending costs were not low at all. The composite lending interest rate in Wenzhou (Wenzhou Index),a city in Zhejiang Province where private lending is prosperous, has been maintained at double-digit over the last 10 years. The highest lending cost was 21% in 2012.On one hand those sectors driving economic growth such as property need a lot of capital; on the other hand, small- to medium-sized enterprises (SME) have been faced with the challenges of getting low-cost capital. 

III. The falling interest rates bodes well for stock markets

However, the People’s Bank of China began to push down lending cost for SME from last year. The three-red policies for property companies mean that capital would not flow into this sector as previously. Also China has been cleaning up shadow banking for a couple of years. All of these decrease the lending costs. The Wenzhou Index has come down to 13-16% recently. As such the stock markets in China would go up as more money would flow in. Those who expect that A-share to rise continuously like the US stocks might not be disappointed.  

IV. Good news for China's stock markets

The establishment of Beijing Stock Exchange is good for A-share and HK stock market. Brokers and related IT companies would benefit the most. The US initial jobless claim last week came in better than expectation. The US stocks reached another record high.  

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

壹 放量滞涨

       2021年9月的第一个交易日，A股成交量创出今年以来最高水平，超过1.7万亿人民币。但是，上证指数和深成指均上涨不到一个百分点。市场呈现放量滞涨的局面。申万28个行业中，10个下跌，18个上涨。其中跌幅居前的是有色金属、电气设备和采掘，涨幅居前的是非银金融、食品饮料和房地产。

       贰 新抱团股的估值   

       所谓新的抱团股--新能源、光伏和半导体板块是重灾区。9月1日A股市场84 个跌停股大部分来自于这三个行业。我们之前曾经提示过新的抱团股很有可能重蹈旧的抱团股即白酒和医药的覆辙。一方面，新抱团股与旧抱团股一样，都是在机构资金的推升下上演了波澜壮阔的行情，估值已经严重脱离基本面。半导体行业很多个股的市盈率估值都是三位数。光伏板块虽然估值还比较理性，但是也处在历史高位。新能源的估值情况与半导体类似，估值畸高，三位数估值比比皆是。作为新能源电池的重要原材料，锂的开采或提取成本在每吨2-4万元人民币之间，但锂板块股票估值一万吨产量对应上百亿市值，估值泡沫巨大。

       叁 新抱团股的基本面

      另一方面，近期新抱团股负面消息不断。在半导体板块，国家大基金和实控人减持不断，而台积电方面又传来要设备商降价15%的消息，对板块构成进一步的打压。光伏板块的龙头业绩差强人意，市场担心未来的盈利增长可能面临挑战。而新能源电池面临扩产的压力，特别是龙头企业前一段时间发布大额定增计划，造成板块承压。

       肆 冷门股表现较好

      与这些高估值热门板块相反，低估值冷门股表现较好。这也是与他们的估值有关系。非银金融中的券商和保险估值都处在历史低位，房地产板块更是20年来的估值新低。食品饮料板块在春节后经过半年多的调整，估值也相对合理。涨幅较高的大基建板块估值也处在多年的低位，股息率可以媲美银行板块。我们在你买与不买，价值都在这里中分析过低估值板块的投资价值。从周二市场表现看，高估值板块是“你卖与不卖，风险都在这里”的一个好例证。所以，买股票是要看估值的。这是投资常识之一。

      伍 关注本周五的美国8月非农就业数据

      市场预期为增加75万个工作岗位。9月份联邦和地方的失业补贴均将到期，有可能会促进就业进一步好转。中国8月份财新制造业采购经理人指数16个月以来首次低于50。

I. Huge trading volume on September 1st, 2021 

The first trading day of September saw huge trading volume in A-share at above RMB 1.7 trillion. 10 out of 28 sectors in A-share fell with the remaining 18 rising. Non-ferrous metal, electric equipment and mining fell the most while non-bank financials, food and beverage and property rose the most.                                                                       II.New group-holding stocks' valuation

The so-called new group-holding stocks including energy, photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors are the most suffered. Among 84 stocks that reached down limit on September 1st,most of them came from these three sectors. We have reminded the risks associated with these sectors and predicted that they would repeat what happened to the old group-holding stocks including liquor and healthcare. The reason is that these sectors’ valuation was pushed to a limit by capital that flew in. Three-digit price-to-earnings ratio is pretty common in these three hot sectors. For lithium miners the valuation is also very extreme. The complete cost of mining lithium is RMB 20-40 k per ton. Yet the lithium miners are valued at more than RMB 10 billion per ton of lithium which they are expected to produce in a year. Moreover, these sectors’ fundamentals were faced with challenges. For semiconductor sector the national funds that invested in this sector began to cut holdings as well as those beneficial controlling persons who own companies in this sector.

III. Fundamentals are faced with challenges 

For new energy sector the leading player has recently announced a big plan to expand capacity via issuing new shares. For photovoltaic sector the top player’s earnings in 1H2021 was disappointed, making market concerned about the growth prospects of this sector. 

IV.Low-valued sectors performed well

Contrary to these high-valued sectors those low-valued sectors performed well. We have analyzed these sectors in “Value is there no matter you buy or not你买与不买，价值都在这里”. For high-valued sectors it would be that the risks are there whether you leave it or not. So when investing in stocks it is necessary to see their valuation levels at the first place. In fact, this should be a common sense.

V. Watch out for the key economic data 

The US stocks little changed. Market pays attention to the US non-farm payroll data in August.  China’s Caixin August manufacturing PMI came in below 50, the first time in 16 months. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

壹 A股和港股估值全球倒数

      截止2021年8月25日，全球16个主要国家和地区（包括主要西方国家、金砖五国除南非以及亚洲主要国家和地区）的主要指数中，A股和港股估值都处在较低水平。以静态市净率来衡量，恒生指数和上证指数的静态市净率分别是1.1倍和1.55倍，分别位于16个主要国家和地区指数估值的倒数第四和倒数第一。俄罗斯和韩国分别排在倒数第二和倒数第三。以静态市盈率衡量，恒生指数和上证指数分别为11.2倍和14.2倍，分别位列16个国家和地区指数的倒数第三和倒数第四。俄罗斯和巴西分别为倒数第一和倒数第二。

     贰 7月以来股市调整幅度较大

     7月以来出台的一些旨在公平的政策使港股市场发生较大调整，海外跟踪中国市场的指数调整幅度更大一些。美国金瑞中国互联网ETF过去6个月下跌了45%。它所重仓的阿里巴巴下跌了30%，而教培股好未来和新东方分别下跌90%。有一些很看好中国的投资人也有些担心，这些新出台的行业规则会抑制企业家精神，对中国经济发展造成负面影响。但是，也有一些投资人坚定看好中国，认为调整是买入的机会。

      叁  低估值背后

      我们认为中国A股和港股与韩国和俄罗斯的估值水平相当，其实是外资对中国的误读。俄罗斯因为国家治理问题以及历史上发生过国债违约事件，国际投资人一直给予其较低估值。而韩国因为大企业包括三星等都是家族企业，公司治理不透明；而且这些大企业基本都是企业集团，业务包罗万象，所以投资人给予较低的估值。中国完全不同，私营企业贡献城市中90%的就业岗位，数字经济占中国GDP比例高达40%。这意味着中国不会无限制的打压私营企业和互联网企业。

      肆 中国的投资机会很多

     一些大型国外基金将中国互联网行业评级下调到低配，但看好其他行业的投资机会，包括新能源、自动驾驶、硬件等。这些企业通常不是大型企业，有些甚至很小。他们代表中国创新的方向，而创新是中国变强的必由之路。

      伍 市场综述

      中国8月的官方制造业和非制造业采购经理人指数均下行，部分原因是受到疫情的影响。A股和港股均探底回升。美股从高位小幅回落。

I. Both A-share and HK stocks were valued at low levels globally

On August 25th, Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index was valued at 1.1x and 1.55x trailing-twelve-months price-to-book value (TTW PB). They were ranked as the last and the 13th among the 16 major indexes in the world, which include major developed nations and developing markets as well as major stock indexes in Asia, Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index was valued at TTW price-to-earnings (PE) of 11.2x and 14.2x respectively and were ranked at 13th and 14th in the 16 major indexes. Russia and South Korea were ranked at the 16th and 15th. 

II. Correction started from July 

China’s stock markets suffered some correction from early July. HK markets were down sharply at one point. Those funds with a focus on China also fell a lot. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF has lost 45% over the last six months, with Alibaba down 30% and tutoring companies such as New Oriental and Tal Education down 90% during this period. In the first two weeks of August about US$3 billion flew out of China, according to EPFR Global. 

III. This might offer a buying opportunity

Some China enthusiasts doubted that the policy aiming at equality might stifle the animal spirits needed to help fuel innovation and keep China’s economy growing. However, others took the opposite opinion and believed that the correction offered a good opportunity of buying. 

IV. China would continue to encourage innovation

China is a different nation from both Russia and South Korea. Russia has been valued at global low levels due to that it ever defaulted on national debts in history and that its national governance. In the case of South Korea, its economy is mainly directed by big conglomerates, which are managed by rich families and lack transparency in terms of corporate governance. China has an economy of US$15 trillion and is home of 1.4 billion people. The private sector contributes 90% of urban employment and digital economy is 40% of GDP. Private economy is encouraged in China and innovation is essential for China to become stronger. Hence, China’s stock markets should enjoy higher valuation. 

V. Market summary

A-share and HK stocks rebounded. China’s official manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI in August fell short of expectation.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

壹 半年报业绩两级分化

       A股上市公司2021年半年报截止8月31日都将发布完成。截止8月30日，上市公司业绩两级分化比较严重。周期股包括上游的煤炭、钢铁、铜、铝以及航运股，业绩都大超市场预期。而旧赛道股包括白酒、酱油、医药等行业的很多公司盈利都不及预期。

        贰 旧赛道泯然众人矣

        白酒行业中个别公司的业绩虽然超预期，但应收票据飙升，显示盈利质量不高。个别公司业绩小幅正增长甚至负增长，比预期的差很多。为什么去年的赛道股今年就“泯然众人矣”？难道这些赛道股不努力吗？非也。主要原因是投资人对这些赛道股的预期太高了。

       叁  周期无处不在

       事实上，任何行业都存在周期。即使消费行业这样一个弱周期行业也存在明显的周期。驱动消费周期的就是居民可支配收入。从2015年以来，我国城镇居民人均可支配收入的年增速在8%左右的水平。对消费的承受能力就是由收入水平高低所决定的。因此，一些消费品一直强调消费升级以及涨价的逻辑也受到这个因素的制约。产品价格涨的太多了超过老百姓的消费能力就意味着遭遇了周期的拐点。

       肆 新赛道也会崩盘

       新赛道股包括新能源、光伏等行业的上市公司业绩虽然较好，但是估值已经直逼甚至超过旧赛道股高峰时期的估值。虽然业绩增速强劲，但有些公司的股价在业绩发布后大幅下跌，与1季报发布时的情况相像。这主要是因为高估值意味着高期望。一旦公司的基本面有一点瑕疵，可能就遭到投资者的抛售。这种情况在芯片、智能AI等热门赛道股里比较多。

       伍 周期可能再度辉煌

       周期股业绩超出市场预期，一方面说明周期股在多年调整之后进入了业绩的上行期，另一方面也反应市场对周期股业绩预期不够。而市场对周期股业绩预期不够主要是因为2008年金融危机以来，周期股没有给投资人赚过钱，很多投资人在周期股上“折戟沉沙”。但周期股经过10多年的产能去化，产能和库存都去得非常彻底，再度辉煌的时刻可能已经到来。

        陆 美股连涨7个月

        A股成交量创出近期新高，市场分歧加剧。周期股上涨，而券商、家电等板块下跌。美股周一道指下跌，而标普500和纳斯达克指数上涨。三大股指均连涨七个月。因美联储鸽派立场，美国10年期国债收益率下跌，支撑股市尤其是科技股上涨。

I. Divergence of earnings in 1H2021 earnings 

All of the listed A-share companies are expected to release their 1H2021 earnings by August 31st,2021. Until now the cyclical stocks’ earnings are above expectation to a great extent. This compared with those hot good-track stocks who were mostly disappointed. The so-called old good-track stocks including those in liquor, soy sauce, medicine and edible oil. These stocks’ 2Q2021 earnings either grew at a mere single digit or declined year-on-year. Some of them delivered decent earnings growth but their account receivables rose significantly, implying that earnings quality was not high. 

II. Consumer sector is also subject to economic cycle

Does this mean that these old good-track stocks did not try their best? This is certainly not the case. For these consumption and healthcare stocks they are also subject to economic cycle. Compared with the cyclical stocks their cycles are not that obvious but they do exist. From 2015 till now Chinese urban citizen disposable income per capita grew at around 8% per annum. The consumption upgrade should be based on the growth rate of income. If products’ prices rise more than income, then they would be faced with less volume and slower growth of revenue. When that happens then the consumption stocks are faced with downwards cycle. 

III. New good-track stocks 

The new good-track stocks including those in photovoltaic and new energy generally delivered strong earnings growth. Yet their valuation is as high as those old good-track stocks at their peak levels or even higher. Some companies’ stock prices fell sharply even with very strong earnings growth in 2Q2021. The reason is that with such high valuation investors’ expectation is high as well. If there are any potential risks associated with fundamentals investors would dump the stocks completely. 

IV. Cyclical stocks might come back

As for cyclical stocks they have not made money for investors over the last 10 years. After cutting inventory and capacity for around 10+ years their products are in shortage at the moment of the global economic recovery. These cyclical stocks might come back gloriously.

V. A dovish Fed supports stocks

The US 10-year treasury yield fell as Fed was expected to begin taper before the end of the year. Nasdaq rallied due to the lower treasury yield. A-share and HK stocks were mixed with cyclical stocks rising and home appliance and brokerage sector falling. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

  壹 美股的长牛 

       二战后美股有三次牛市，分别从1949年到1956年、1990年到2000年以及2009年到2020年。这三次牛市标普500分别上涨了3.82、5.87和5.09倍。2009年到2020年的牛市结束于2020年2月14日，当天标普500触及此轮牛市最高点3393点。2009年到2020年的牛市是三次牛市中持续时间最长的，指数上涨的幅度也与1990年到2000年相当。

        贰 长牛由业绩支撑

       我们研究发现，2009年到2020年的牛市上涨业绩驱动占比90%左右，估值提升仅占不到10%。以美国五大科技公司脸书、微软、谷歌、奈飞和苹果为例，他们的静态市盈率从2009年到2020年2月基本都在20-30倍之间。

       叁 经济结构决定了长牛

       美股不像A股那样受到制造业库存周期的较大影响。这主要是因为制造业占美国经济的比重在12%左右，因此对经济的影响作用有限。消费服务占美国经济的比重在80%左右。但是，如果以供应管理协会非制造业采购经理人指数来衡量，该指数从2009年到2020年除了2009年和2020年都处在荣枯线50以上，除了2020年4月因为新冠疫情短暂地下探到了41.8的水平。前一个低点是2008年11月，因全球金融危机影响，非制造业采购经理人指数达到了37.6。一般而言，制造业库存周期的低点对应美股的相对低点，美股在调整达到相对低点之后就重拾升势。

       肆 A股将会逐渐摆脱美股影响

      美国制造业库存周期的低点往往对应其他国家和地区股市的绝对低点。我们在2021年A股投资展望中分析过，美国作为全球经济增长的火车头，对全球经济的引领作用十分明显。美国经济出问题，对其他国家的影响也非常大。特别是对A股而言，美国库存周期下行期往往对应A股的下行期。但是，这种情况未来将会有所变化。首先，我国的内循环战略意味着对出口的依赖程度将会降低。其次，随着中国企业在产业链上地位的提升，我国企业赚取超额利润的能力在增强，这也意味着抵御全球经济下行压力的能力也在增强。

      伍 美联储此次缩减债券的影响将不如2013年大

      上周五美联储主席鲍威尔支出美联储将在年底之前实施缩减债券购买计划。此次美联储缩减债券购买对发展中市场的股市影响将会小于2013年。一方面，发展中市场今年的经济基本面好于2013年，另一方面，美联储通过不断地延迟退出宽松政策的脚步，使得市场消化了大部分冲击。而2013年的缩减恐慌一定程度上是美联储与市场沟通不够造成的。

I. The long-bulls of the US stocks 

There are three long bulls for the US stocks after the World War II, which lasted from 1949 to 1956, 1990 to 2000 and 2009 to 2020. SP 500 rose 3.72, 5.83 and 5.09 for these three bulls respectively.  The bull market from 2009 to 2020 is the longest bull in the history. We found that earnings growth drove 90%+ of the bull while the remaining 10% came from valuation improvement. FAANG stocks,which include Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google, have been valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 20-30x most of the time during the bull market from 2009 to 2020. 

II.Economic structure supports the bull market

The US stock market are not affected by  inventory cycle as much as China’s A-share market. This is because that manufacturing only takes 12% of the US GDP compared with China’s more than 30%.The low point of inventory cycle coincides with the relatively low point of the US stock market, which then picks up steam and go up again. Consumption and service take 80% of the US economy. From 2009 and 2020 non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index of Institute of Supply Management, which gauges the situation of consumption and service sector, remained above the threshold of 50 most of the time. This index touched low point of 37.6 and 41.8 respectively in Nov. 2008 due to the global financial crises and April 2020 due to COVID-19 crises. The prosperity of consumption and service sector supports the long-bull of the US stock market. 

III. The US economy leads the world economy

The low point of inventory cycle in the US usually means the low point of the global stocks due to that the US economy is the engine of the global economy. We have discussed this in "The outlook of A-share in 2021”（2021年A股投资展望）in details. 

IV. A-share would not be affected by the US economy greatly

A-share used to be affected by the US inventory cycle badly as China’s economy relied on export to a great extent. However, going forward we expect the impact to become smaller and smaller. The first is that China has changed its economic development towards domestic circulation, meaning that it would not rely on export as much as it used to be. The second is that Chinese companies have moved up along the value chain, meaning that they would not be hit as hard as previously when the US economy runs into trouble.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。