壹 白酒股的逻辑发生改变

      周四各种茅集中崩盘，崩盘的背后是逻辑的变化。以某著名白酒公司为例，其酒的零售价格今年以来持续上涨，近期已达到3000元每瓶，但股价从2季度开始与持续上涨的酒价背离。这背后就是担忧老百姓的消费能力不足以支撑这么高的酒价。因此，当周四有媒体报道其批发价调降200元时，其实是契合了市场的担忧。同时，由于该酒的开瓶率一直较低，意味着很多酒其实并没有被消费，而是储存起来了。因此当价格下跌时，这些储存起来的酒很有可能出现在市场中，加剧价格的下跌。之前上涨的逻辑是酒价持续上涨，由于供给受限，因而需求无法得到有效满足。下跌的逻辑变成了价格越跌，供应越多。

      贰 医药股的逻辑

     而医药茅的崩塌也是逻辑发生了变化。以某著名创新药企业为例。其股价上涨的时候市场认为其管线足以支撑起比当前大几倍的市值，估值应参照美股辉瑞的市值。但当集采失利后，市场发现创新药再好，也需要降价进入集采才能获得较高的市场份额。药茅下跌的时候开始跟辉瑞比市盈率，发现辉瑞长期以来也就20倍左右的市盈率。

     叁 实质是预期变了

     为什们上涨时一套逻辑而下跌时又一套逻辑呢？无论对于白酒还是医药，其实这些所谓的好赛道都存在风险，只不过当市场上涨的时候，投资人要么视而不见，要么就是选择性的忽略掉这些风险。因此，股价只反应了最乐观的预期。而当股价下跌时，市场才猛然发现原来风险这么多，而且随着股价越跌越深，风险不但没有减少，反而一个又一个新的风险冒出来。其实，也是因为悲观预期开始后，风险逐渐地被注意到了。所以，投资需要理性判断，不能过度乐观也不宜过度悲观。不过，一般人都很难做到这一点。所以，投资最终就是挑战自己。

      肆 投资者有可能对经济增长过于悲观

     衡量经济数据是高于预期或者低于预期的程度的花旗意外经济指数近期达到-37。这是疫情发生以来首次跌入负区间。这主要是因为Delta病毒。市场担心Delta病毒将加剧通胀，进而影响消费需求。经济学家对美国经济2021年的增长预测从6月份的6.5%下调为6%。相应地，由于Delta病毒的冲击，经济学家也下调了对中国经济增速的预期。但好消息是，经济意外指数已经处在历史上20%的分位，即80%的时间该指数都高于当前水平。这意味着未来的经济数据大概率会超预期。周五杰克森年会将在线上举行，市场关注美联储任何关于收缩债券购买计划的细节。年会前市场情绪谨慎，全球股市普跌。

I. Logic behind the liquor stock

On Thursday good-track stocks fell sharply, reflecting that logic has changed for these stocks. Take the example of a famous spirit stock, its liquor price rose from the beginning of this year to RMB 3000 per bottle recently. Yet its stock prices went south after Chinese New Year festival as market was concerned that consumption volume would become less due to the high liquor price. Moreover, given that many bottles of the liquor are not consumed but stocked for prices increase, they would come into the market with liquor prices coming down. When stock prices rose, the logic is that its supply was limited and liquor prices could rise continuously. And when stock prices fell, more and more supply would come out.

II. An example of a pharmaceutical company

A famous innovative pharmaceutical company was faced with the same dilemma. When its stock price was going up, market expected that its strong pipeline of innovative drugs would support a much bigger market cap if taking Pfizer as valuation benchmark. But after its drugs failed to enter the national centralized purchase list market found that innovative drugs should not be given such a high valuation. Then compared with the 20x price-to-earnings ratio of Pfizer the pharmaceutical company was highly valued. 

III. Expectation has changed

In fact, whether in the case of the liquor company or the pharmaceutical company the risks mentioned above have alwaysbeen there. But when the stock prices are rising market omit them. And when stock prices fell, market began to pay attention to these risks. So when investing it is wise to remain not so optimistic and pessimistic.

IV. Market might be over-concerned about economic growth prospects

Due to Delta variant economists downgraded the US GDP growth rate in 2021 from 6.5% to 6%. China’s GDP growth rate in 2021 was also downgraded by economists. But The Citi Economic Surprise Index, a score that measures the degree to which economic data is beating or missing estimates, has fallen into negative territory for the first time since pandemic. This implies that market might be over-concerned about economic growth prospects. Global markets were cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole annual meeting, which would take place on Friday virtually. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

  壹 市场机制调节不平等

      纳西姆·塔勒布在《非对称风险》一书中谈到了不平等现象。他认为不平等可以视作一种尾部的不协调现象，富人位于财富分布的尾部。赢者通吃效应越强，财富就越不平均。他提议引入一种机制，使得最强大的、最富有的人有可能因其承担的风险过大而垮塌。塔勒布强调发挥市场的力量来应对不平等。但是，如果富人不愿意承担过大的风险呢？

      贰 不平等来自哪里？

     法国经济学家皮凯蒂强调运用政府的力量应对不平等。在《21世纪资本论》中，他指出由于资本的回报率（r）大于经济的增长率(g)，导致现代社会不平等现象的加剧。现代工业革命并没有真正改变r和g的关系。在十九世纪，经济增长率从0%增加到了1%至2%。股票市场的投资回报率也从5%增长到了6%到7%，而资本的长期回报率以工业投资的新形式甚至达到了7%。在二十世纪，只有第一次世界大战、第二次世界大战这种非常特殊的事件会导致经济在战后迅速增长。在欧洲和日本，增长率在五十年代、六十年代和七十年代都是6%，这就算是一个奇迹了。历史来看，大多数国家不可能永远保持5%的增长率。从长远角度来说，一个国家处于世界科技前沿的时候，生产率的增长率可能在1%到2%。这比投资回报率要低很多。

     叁 如何调控？

     这并不是说不平等的程度会变得无限大，而是意味着不平等会保持相当一段时间。所以如果r是5%而g是1%，这就意味着拥有大量财富的人只需要用他们资本收入的五分之一去投资，他们就可以继续享用他们的财富，假如没有税的话。在标准的经济模型里，r总是比g大。在发明与革新飞速增长的同时，不平等也是巨大的，比如第一次工业革命时期和当前。资本家和市场的力量非常强大，需要强大的公共机构去调控和整改这些力量。

    肆 股市投资也会产生不平等

    在股市里我们运用贴现现金流公式计算一家上市公司的内在价值时，就是假设风险投资回报率（r）高于企业的长期经济增长率，长期看，公司的增长率其实就是经济增长率（g）。因此，从这个意义上说，在股市投资其实就是享受高于经济增速的资本回报率。如何调控这里面的不平等？美国有资本利得税，我国还没有征收。随着国家调控不平等政策的加强，资本利得税和其他各种税都会逐渐推出。

     伍 市场综述

     周二A股上涨。央行超量续做逆回购500亿人民币，当日到期300亿，给市场提供信心。美股标普500和纳斯达克续创新高，美国10年期国债收益率上涨到1.325%，接近本月初的高点。

I. To solve inequality with market mechanism

Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote in his book “Hidden asymmetries in daily life” that imparity exists due to the mechanism of winner-take- all. He pointed out that the rich people are at the fat tails of the normal distribution of fortunes. To avoid inequality in a society the government should introduce an arrangement that would push those rick people to shoulder higher risk. The higher risk the rich people shoulder,the higher probability that they would fail and lose their fortune. 

II.The roots of inequality

Contrary to Nassim’s idea of allowing market to adjust fortune distribution, Thomas Piketty wrote in his popular book “Capital in the 21st century” that government should bring up with measures to adjust fortune distribution including taxes,duties and etc. He based his arguments on that the capital return rate (r) is higher than economic growth rate (g) in the long term. This is the root that inequality widened in modern society. 

III.Government should play its role in dealing with inequality 

In the 19th century economic growth rate increased from 0 to 1 or 2%. Yet stock investment return rate increased to 6-7% from 5%. The long-term capital return rate in new technology could be as high as 7%.Economic growth rate was temporarily at a higher rate than capital return rate after the World War I and World War II due to the fast recovery and reconstruction of economy. The inequality widens with innovation becoming faster. The economic growth rate in the long term for those countries at the frontier of technology innovation is 1-2%. Yet capital return can be maintained at 5%. As long as capitalists take 1% of their capital to invest, they can maintain their fortune very easily if without taxes. Capital and market mechanism are very strong. Hence, it is necessary for government to bring up with measures to deal with the issue of inequality. Piketty’s suggestions seem to apply to China’s situation well. More measures on this issue are to be released.

IV. A summary of global stock markets 

A-share rallied as the People's Bank of China injected liquidity into the market by renewing more reverse-repo in a larger amount than those due on Tuesday. The US 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.352%. Both SP500 and Nasdaq Index reached record high. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

         壹 三类投资机会

       当下，市场对未来几个月的经济前景预期比较悲观，但是对流动性预期又相对乐观。对经济的悲观预期和对政策的乐观预期都无法在短期证实或证伪。这种情况下，我们认为对A股市场进行自下而上的投资可以挖掘出较好的投资机会。我们认为三类投资机会值得关注。

      贰 中小市值个股票

     首先，低估值的中小市值股票。在经济下行期，中小企业受冲击的程度往往要大于大企业。但是，上市公司的中小企业一般而言是各细分行业的龙头企业，在下行期往往会以较强竞争优势抢占市场份额，表现出较强的韧性。而反观当前的大企业，也都是在经济下行期通过不断扩大市场份额而逐渐成长为大企业的。中小市值企业也符合国家专精特新的政策导向。其中一些企业很有可能踏着政策东风快速做大。建议在科创板和创业板中寻找这些公司。当然，中小市值的细分行业包罗万象，从中选择出较好的投资标的不仅需要花费一些时间和精力，而且需要具备一些行业背景知识和对个股的判断能力。

      叁 价值股

      其次，是价值股，包括大金融和地产。我们在现在可以开始和港股做时间的朋友和你买与不买，价值都在这里推荐过这些行业。这些行业的估值都处在历史较低水平。大金融中的券商和银行的业绩增速并不差，保险虽然遭遇行业结构性问题而导致业绩不佳，但是估值已经反应了最差情景。银行和地产都具有高于银行5年期定期存款利率的股息率。持有这些股票，可以做到慢慢赚钱。

      肆 疫情受损股

      最后，疫情期间持续受到冲击的行业，包括旅游、航空、餐饮等。这些企业因为受到疫情冲击，估值一直处在历史较低水平。随着疫情缓解，这些股票也会有较好表现。总之，我们对A股和港股都保持相对乐观的态度。尽管3、4季度经济可能会面临一些压力，但是坚持投资理念一定会取得较好收益。

      伍 市场综述

     周二A股和港股均上涨。港股科网股大幅上涨，因京东2季度业绩超市场预期，同时腾讯展开股票回购。国际投资人也开始缓解对投资中国市场的担忧。美股连续第三天上涨，三大股指均创出或接近历史新高。中国疫情已经被良好地控制住，美国疫情也出现缓解迹象。市场对经济前景不再悲观，转而关注美联储将在杰克森年会上会释放关于削减债券购买的任何细节。值得注意的是，即使美联储缩减债券购买，美国市场在未来一年仍有可能获得1万亿美金的超额流动性。

I.Investment opportunities in A-share. 

Market worries about the slowdown of economy in 3Q and 4Q this year but is optimistic about the likely easing policy measures. It is hard to prove that economy would slow down dramatically and that easing policy would come any time soon. Hence, at this point it might be wise to pick stocks that with solid fundamentals and low valuation. In A-share we recommend three types of opportunities. 

II. Small- to mid-sized market cap stocks

The first is small-to mid-sized market cap stocks. Small and mid-sized companies usually perform worse than bigger ones when economy slows down. However, for those listed companies they are often market leaders in niche markets and can gain more market share when demands dwindles. Moreover, these companies would be encouraged by the recent policies of encouraging “Specialized,Fined, Peculiar and Innovative Little Giants. We believe that in STAR Board and Chinext Board there are companies that have good investment values. 

III. Deep value

The second is the deep value stocks including financials and property. Both banks and brokerage sector grew their earnings strongly. And banks and property sector offer attractive dividend yield, which is much higher than 5-year time deposit rate. Also their valuation is at years’ low levels. 

IV. Pandemic-affected sectors

The last group is those sectors that suffer from the pandemic including airlines, catering and travelling,whose valuation is at historical low levels. With Delta variant well-controlled,they are set to perform. In summary we are optimistic about the investment prospects in both A-share and HK market. The roads ahead are bumpy but they would lead you to good return.

V. A summary of global stock market

Global stocks continued rally. HK tech stocks rallied as JD 2Q2021 earnings came in better than expected. Also international investors understood that the recent measures brought up by Chinese government do not hurt listed tech giant as seriously as previously thought. Moreover, both China and the US are showing signs that Delta variant is well controlled, boosting optimism about global economy. The US stocks are at record levels after three-day rise in a row. Market is paying attention to any details of tapering from the Fed’s Jackson Hole annual meeting.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

 壹 投资价值四要素

      在《大钱细思》一书，乔尔·帝林哈斯特指出：影响投资价值的主要有四个要素，即盈利能力、生命周期、成长性和确定性。他指出，从宏观层面看，利润丰厚的公司，在经营确定性较强的情况下，行业的周期性越弱，存活的时间越长。成长性也非常重要，历史上许多公司在缺少盈利驱动后，价值都归为零。他认为：除了规模较小的非耐用消费品行业，大部分公司很难兼具确定性和成长性。

       贰 将不安全边际最小化

      他同时认为巴菲特是将“不安全边际”最小化以应对不确定性。如果你将不要赔钱的投资原则放在第一位，那么减少不安全边际就是你需要重点考虑的事情。发掘价值首先要辨别公司的盈利能力。如果筛选的公司盈利能力强，则要看这种盈利能力能够持续多久。不同行业情况是完全不同的。如果一家公司没有替代品，也没有竞争者，那么它往往可以获得较高回报。像自然垄断型的公司包括电力和燃气等，但这些公司的产品价格通常会受到政府管制。这些公用事业公司的生存和业务确定性要高于追求高利润。

       叁 消费品公司和高科技公司

       品牌消费品公司在过去半个世纪的利润率要高于其他任何行业。具备上述提及的四个要素中的三个，即盈利能力、生命周期和确定性，但成长性往往不足。高科技公司一般是盈利能力强、成长性高，但是他们一般生命周期短，同时面临较大不确定性，包括是否被新的技术取代。在变化迅速的行业，公司只有通过不断创新才能生存下来。他最后指出：投资是具有挑战性的活动，在过程中投资者需要避免不切实际的期望。

       肆  看看A股市场

       乔尔所说的这些判断投资价值的标准同样适用于A股。结合估值来看，A股市场那些盈利能力高、生命周期处在朝阳阶段，短期成长性和确定性都很强的公司估值都较高。而对于那些走下坡路的行业，估值很低，因为成长性不足。但是，A股市场一个比较矛盾的现象是：盈利确定性高的行业估值太高，而成长性不足的行业估值又太低。如果这些盈利确定性高的行业或者公司的盈利一旦低于预期，公司股价就会遭受较大打击；而成长性不足的公司一旦业绩增速提升，则会有估值的提升。

      伍 市场综述

      周一A股和港股均上涨。腾讯展开回购，港股科网股大幅上涨。A股军工股和周期股涨幅居前。美股全面上涨，纳斯达克指数创出历史新高。因美国FDA批准辉瑞的两剂疫苗，疫苗股、经济复苏股和周期股大幅上涨。

I. How to find investment values? 

In his popular book “Big money thinks small” Joel Tillinghast pointed out that from macro point of view one should observe four aspects to find investment values. These include profitability, business cycle, growth and certainty. He further pointed out that for those companies with high profitability the ups-and-downs would become smaller if they can maintain high profitability with a high certainty. Apart from some small non-durable consumer goods companies most companies can’t have both growth and certainties. 

II. To decrease uncertainty of safety margin

Warren Buffett tried to decrease uncertainty of safety margin to the least by buying stocks at a big discount. If an investor puts principal safety as the top priority, then he or she should consider how to decrease uncertainty of safety margin. 

III. Utilities, consumers and high-tech companies

The first thing to find value is to see whether the company can make a profit. If a company can earn a lot of money, then it is necessary to see whether it can sustain this profitability for a long time. The situation differs from sectors. If a company does not have competitors then it can earn a lot of money. Utilities company usually are in this situation. Yet their products prices are regulated. This means that their earnings’ certainty is higher than profitability. Consumer stables have higher profitability, less volatility and certainty. Yet their growth isusually low. High-tech companies have high growth rate and high profitability.But their certainty is usually low and often faced with big volatility. In a fast-changing world, high-tech companies are often substituted by new technologies. 

IV. What happened and will happen in A-share 

What Joel mentioned also apply to A-share. However, in A-share there is a conflict. For those companies with high profitability and certainty their valuation is at extremely high levels. Yet for those companies with low profitability their valuation is at extremely low levels. This could change dramatically if high profitability companies deliver less earnings than expected or low profitability companies deliver earnings higher than expected.

V. A summary of global markets 

Global markets rallied. Tencent announced share buyback. FDA approved twodoses of vaccine of Pfizer, boosting vaccine stocks in the US.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

壹 抱团股再次崩塌

      上周抱团股的崩塌再次让投资人损失惨重。今年以来A股市场抱团股屡次大幅调整。春节之后因为美债收益率上升以及央行收紧流动性导致估值高企的抱团股发生大跌。此次调整在3月中旬趋于缓和，之后抱团股重拾上涨态势，同时新能源和光伏赛道崛起，资金再次紧密抱团新赛道。6月底、7月初以来，随着政府对一些互联网企业的管控加强，A股开启第二波调整。首当其冲的还是抱团股。截止2021年8月20日，贵州茅台从6月初的高点下跌了33.6%，从2月春节之后的高点下跌了41%。其他抱团股也有较大幅度的调整。持有这些抱团股的基金净值也有较大回撤。我们之前曾经多次提示抱团股其实并没有投资价值，因为其估值已经完全反应了所有的利好。股价的方向只能是下跌，而不是上涨。

       贰 抱团股仍面临风险

      当前市场上很多热门板块都存在估值高的问题。虽然持有这些板块的基金短期赚钱了，业绩也不错，但其实隐含着很大的风险。一方面，政策信号已经很明确，赚钱要公平。以垄断地位赚钱未来可能会面临政策的打压。而很多抱团股之所以享受高估值，一个主要原因就是市场给予的垄断估值溢价。另一方面，随着美国逐渐收紧流动性，这些成长股的估值也会面临压力。同时，中国经济增速在2季度达到同比高点之后，在3、4季度将会逐季走低。这些对企业盈利也会造成压力。而央行可能在美联储收紧流动性的过程中也会保持克制，避免造成人民币的过大波动。这也意味着不能指望国内流动性的放松很快到来，高估值股票因此面临较大风险。

       叁 投资要赚业绩提升的钱

       要想在今年规避这种亏损，其实是需要投资人想清楚投资要赚什么钱：是赚估值提升的钱，还是业绩提升的钱。估值提升需要流动性的配合，而业绩提升就是要寻找基本面优秀的企业。作为专业投资人士，寻找基本面优秀的企业从而赚取业绩提升的钱才是其价值所在。以资金优势抬升企业估值，即使短期股价上涨了，长期看也是不可能持续的。白酒医药等抱团股去年和今年的截然相反表现很好的诠释了这一点。对于今年新的抱团股投资人也要小心，以避免重蹈覆辙。

        肆 市场综述

       上周全球指数普跌。港股恒生指数在全球16个主要国家和地区指数中跌幅最大，5.84%；其次法国CAC40指数、台湾指数和深成指，分别下跌3.91%、3.77%和3.68%。上证指数2.53%，下跌幅度居中。关注美联储在下周的杰克森年会上是否就削减债券购买表态。

I. Group-holding stocks tumbled again

Last week group-holding stocks tumbled again, which happened several times this year. The first is after Chinese New Year festival. Due to thefast-rising treasury yield in the US and that the People’s bank of China withdrawing liquidity, group-holding stocks fell sharply until mid-March. Then from late June and early July due to that government brought measures to crack down internet sector and tutoring sector, group-holding stocks fell again.  Until last Friday Kweichow Moutai fell 33.6%from its high in early June and 41% from its high in mid-Feb. 

II. To earn money from companies' earnings growth

The fall of group-holding stocks has created big losses for those funds holding them. To avoid such big losses,one needs to think clearly what money he or she should earn in investment, i.e.,to earn money from valuation improvement or from earnings growth. To earn money from valuation improvement it requires liquidity improvement. While to earn money from earnings growth it requires to find good companies. As professional investor it should be his or her duty to find good companies that can deliver strong earnings growth. In this way the professional investors can add value to those who trust them with money to manage. It is not sustainable to earn money from liquidity improvement. The sharp contrast of group-holding stocks' performance this year and last year illustrates this point well. New group-holding stocks in new energy and chip sector emerged in A-share from mid-March. These stocks might repeat what happened to liquor sector.

III. A summary of global markets last week

Hang Seng Index fell 5.89% last week and the worst-performing index among the 16 global major indexes. Shenzhen Composite Index fell 3.68%,the fourth worst-performing index globally. Global central banks will convene online for Jackson Hole annual meeting this week. Market is paying attention to whether the Federal Reserve chairman Powell would disclose any details on taper.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

         壹 “削减恐慌”再现？

        2013年5月，美联储主席出乎意料地宣布美联储将会削减债券购买规模，引发股市和汇市的大幅波动，被市场称为“削减恐慌”。此次美联储当然不想引起“削减恐慌”。因此，一直到7月份的议息会议中才明确表示要削减债券购买规模。即使如此小心翼翼，明示要削减债券购买规模仍然引起了全球股市、汇市和商品的剧烈波动。美元指数创出年内新高，大宗商品全线下跌。发达国家和发展中国家股市都大幅调整。

        贰 国债收益率仍将会上行

        我们在这次也许不一样中指出，美联储这次削减债券购买规模可能不会像上一次那样引起美元指数的大幅上涨，原因就是因为高通胀，美国国债实际收益率有可能下行，而上一次国债收益率是上行。2013年5月，美国10年期国债收益率最低达到1.66%。在美联储主席宣布削减债券购买后，10年期国债收益率到5月底就上涨到2.16%，6月份达到2.6%，7月份达到2.9%。12月份当美联储正式宣布削减债券计划后上涨到3%。但随着美联储正式开始削减债券购买计划，国债收益率又开始下跌，并在2015年又回到2%左右的水平。当前，虽然美联储已经明示要削减债券购买计划，但美国10年期国债名义收益率仍然下行。这主要是因为流动性过于充裕以及市场对经济增长前景判断比较悲观造成的。我们认为此次削减债券购买，国债收益率仍将会上行。在美联储能退出宽松货币政策吗？一文中，我们分析此次国债收益率上涨的幅度应该不会很大。

       叁 美元指数和大宗商品

      美元指数从2013年开始低位上涨，到2014年5月进入直线上升通道一直持续到2015年2月，在9个月的时间从78上涨到99。考虑到美国巨额国内债务，美元指数上涨的涨幅应有限。这意味着发展中国家的股市可能不会像2013年那样大幅下跌。当然，2013年因需求不振，发展中国家无论是大宗商品国和出口国经济都表现不佳。这是这些国家股市大幅下跌的另一个原因。而今年至少到目前为止，受益于大宗商品价格的上涨，大宗商品国普遍表现较好。最后，看看大宗商品。我们计算了历史上CRB大宗商品指数和美元指数的相关系数，得出结果为-0.69，这表明大宗商品和美元是绝对负相关。因此，美元指数上涨，大宗商品价格将承压。我们也注意到大宗商品国货币澳大利亚元和加拿大元兑美元的汇率也分别创下2020年11月和2020年2月以来的新低，美元走强对这些大宗商品国打压。

       肆 市场综述

      大宗商品股票下跌带动A股和港股下跌。美股指数涨跌不一。高盛下调3季度美国经济增速预测，从9%调降到5.5%，理由是超预期的通胀和Delta病毒对经济的冲击。

I Another taper tantrum?

In May 2013 when the Fed chairman Bernanke announced that the Fed would cut bond purchase scale global stock markets, commodities and foreign exchange market crashed. This is called “Taper tantrum”. This time the Fed does not want to cause taper tantrum. Still when the minutes of their July meeting was disclosed on Wednesday global stock markets, commodities and exchange markets reacted negatively. 

II Developing stock markets might perform better this time

We have analyzed the likely impact of taper this time. In 2013 those developed stock markets performed better than developing economy’s stock markets. Developing nations can be classified as export-oriented and commodity nations. Due to the lackluster global economy growth after 2008 global financial crises both export-oriented and commodity countries were faced with weak GDP growth. But this time global demand is quite strong. Economic growth in both export-oriented and commodity nations are robust. Hence, we believe this time taper tantrum would have smaller impact on developing world. 

III Treasury yield would rise

The US 10-year treasury yield rose from 1.66%, the lowest level in May 2013, to 3% in December 2013, when taper plan was announcedformally. This time we also expect the treasury yield to go up before the taper formally begins. Yet we do not foresee that it would rise as much as that in 2013. The reason as we previously analyzed, is that the US can not bear too high interest rate given its huge debt burden. The US dollar index reached a new high this year on Thursday. This has caused commodity prices to drop sharply. We calculated the correlation coefficient between CRB commodity index and the US dollar index. The result is -0.69. This implies that the US dollar and commodity prices are absolutely negative related. Hence, when the US dollar index rises, commodity prices would fall.  

IV A summary of global stock markets

Cyclical stocks caused both A-share and HK markets to fall.The US markets were mixed with SP500 and Nasdaq rising while Dow falling. Goldman Sachs cut the economic growth of the US in 3Q2021 to 5.5% from 9% citing reasons including inflation and Delta variant.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。