壹  价值股表现好于成长股

        8月份以来，A股和港股都经历较大跌幅。但价值股表现较好，尤其是非周期类的价值股包括银行、房地产、大基建等板块。而曾经火热的赛道股都大幅调整。展望3、4季度，我们认为随着国内经济下行压力加大，以赛道股为代表的成长股将会面临盈利增速下调的压力，同时估值也会下调。反观价值股，大多数具有顺政策周期的特性。3季度我们预期财政政策将会更加积极，具体表现在专项债的发行将会提速。而4季度如果内外需皆下行，则货币政策将会开始宽松节奏。在财政政策和货币政策作用下，价值股将会有较好表现。

       贰 赛道股还能不能买？

        一些去年曾经火热的赛道股从今年春节后开始调整，至今板块跌幅在30-40%。有朋友因此咨询这些板块的股票可不可以介入。当有人还惦记这些板块的时候，基本上可以说明这些板块的跌幅并没有到位。另外，这些板块当前估值也并不便宜，叠加盈利的可能下跌，可以预期他们的股价还将持续调整。

        叁 为什么价值股开始表现？

       当板块跌到底部的时候，一个特征就是没有人记得还有这个板块。也正是因为没人记得了，所以板块到底了。比如大基建板块。这个板块从去年新冠疫情发生以来有过几次如烟花般短暂而绚丽的表现，之后就归于沉寂。而板块估值无论A股还是港股都处在历史最低水平。类似这样的价值股还很多。从估值看，港股的更便宜。很多两地上市的股票，港股的估值比A股低至少20%以上。其中很多板块和个股的业绩是不错的。

        肆 价值股为什么不招人待见

       投资者不愿意投资的原因是因为这些价值股处于传统行业，已经过了业绩的高速增长期。跟科技和新能源等这些一说起名字都让人无比激动的行业相比，传统行业让人似乎一眼就望到了尽头，激发不起投资的劲头。但是，真正好的投资就是乏味的投资。令人激动的投资最后往往是成长陷阱。随着美联储逐步回收巨额流动性以及美债利率的走高，这些几倍市盈率、零点几倍市净率的股票在未来有很大可能跑赢几百倍市盈率、十几二十倍市净率的赛道股。

      伍 市场综述

      A股和港股在金融股带领下上涨。美联储7月份议息会议纪要公布，如市场预期开始讨论缩减债券购买计划。纪要提到：大部分人同意开始缩减债券购买计划，因通胀已经达到预期的水平。而随着经济复苏，就业也将逐渐达到政策目标。美联储最早有可能在本月下旬召开的杰克森年会上正式公布缩减债券购买计划。美国7月新屋开工数环比下跌7%，大幅低于市场预期。美股因新冠疫情肆虐连续第二天下跌。

I. Market style might shift to value stocks

Both A-share and HK stocks dropped sharply from July. Yet value stocks outperformed. Value stocks include bank, property, infrastructure stocks, etc. In contrast, the hot track-stocks fell sharply during this period. These hot track stocks might face earnings growth pressure in 3Q and 4Q this year with economy likely slowingdown. 

II. Value stocks to be on the tailwind of policies

Value stocks might be on the tailwind of accommodative policies. In 3Q fiscal policy would become more proactive. A case in point would be that the special purpose debt would hasten issuance to boost infrastructure investment.In 4Q if both domestic and international demand dwindles monetary policy would ease again. 

III. Value stocks are at historical low valuation levels 

Most of these value stocks are at historical low. For those dual-listed valuation in HK market is at least 20% cheaper than in A-share. Apart from cyclical value stocks other value stocks have not performed since the pandemic. Yet their earnings growth is not bad at all. Take the example of bank sector, some mid-sized banks delivered more than 20% year-on-year earnings growth. 

IV. Good investments are just boring

Compared with tech and new energy sector, these traditional stocks sound boring. But good investment is just boring. Those that can make investors excited usually turn out to be growth trap.With the Federal Reserve to take back liquidity and the US treasury yield to rise along with that growth stocks would be under pressure and value stocks would perform well.

V. Summary on global markets

Financial sector led the rally in A-share and HK market. The US stocks fell for a second day as Delta variant surged and weighed on cyclical stocks. The Federal released its July meeting minutes,which indicated that most participants agreed that the Fed should dial back asset purchase scale. The Fed noted that economy reached its goal on inflation and was close to be satisfied on employment. Housing starts in July fell 7% month-on-month, which was well below expectation. Recently economic data in theUS were disappointed due to Delta variant. Another possible reason is that the US economy might reach its peak levels.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

市场在告诉我们什么？周二A股和港股均泥沙俱下。A股28个行业全部下跌，但是低估值板块跌幅较少，包括房地产、建筑材料和交通运输跌幅在0.2-0.4%。而高估值板块包括休闲服务、食品饮料和医药生物跌幅在3.6-4.8%。港股12个行业均下跌，其中跌幅较少的是金融和综合业，跌幅较大的是科技和原材料行业。市场对周二的下跌有各种猜测，其一是央行周二在7000亿中期便利借贷到期后只续作了6000亿，外加100亿的逆回购。这说明央行在7月15日的降准只是置换到期的中期借贷便利，并不是宽松的开始。这与市场预期的货币宽松有所不同，叠加周一发布的经济数据全面低于预期，市场因此大跌。当然中美关系以及媒体报道的严查市场黑嘴等消息也对市场构成冲击。但是这些就是市场大跌的理由吗？我们认为根本原因还是一些板块和个股缺乏安全边际。所谓安全边际，就是买入的股票价格要与其内在价值有一定的差值，这个差值就是安全边际。安全边际大，所能承受的股价下跌的风险也较大。所谓内在价值，根据《证券分析》一书的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆，通常由资产、收益和股息等事实和可以确定的前景决定的，也即由企业的发展前景以及其所能创造的收益和股息率所决定。格雷厄姆其实在20世纪20年代的早期就开始提倡内在价值和安全边际的理念。由于未来充满变数，因此投资者是自身对抗未来的不确定性，因此应该以低于内在价值的成本进行投资。内在价值这一理念发展到现在，投资人将企业在可预见的未来所能创造的自由现金流作为确定内在价值的依据。高估值板块的企业未来所能创造的自由现金流折现在是否能够超过当前股价存在较大不确定性。这意味着这些股票的安全边际很低或者是没有的。因此，在面对未来经济存在下行压力可能会造成企业盈利下行而政策又不能如预期及时出手的情况下，高估值板块的下跌虽是意料之外，却也在情理之中。投资要投的是具有较高安全边际的股票。否则，就是投机或者是赌运气。

美股下跌。7月零售数据环比增速下降1.1%，市场预期下跌0.3%。Delta病毒对美国经济的负面影响逐渐体现。美元指数创出今年以来的新高，达到93.144，据3月底的高点93.286仅一步之遥。美元指数上涨带动大宗商品价格全线下跌。

What does the market tell us? Both A-share and HK stocks tumbled on Tuesday. In A-share leisure service, food and beverage and medicine and healthcare sector fell the most at 3.6-4.8% while property, construction material and transportation fell the least at 0.2-0.4%. In general, those high-valued stocks fell more than thelow-valued ones. Some investors owed the sharp drop of stocks to that the People’sBank of China renewed Medium-term Lending Facility at a smaller amount than that due on Tuesday. This together with the lower-than-expected economic data in July crushed the stock market. Others thought that geopolitical tensions made investors decrease their risk preference. Yet the root could be that these stocks lack safety margin. Safety margin is a concept that was brought up by Benjamin Graham in the early 1920’s. Benjamin Graham is famous for his book “Security Analysis” and being the tutor for the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Graham believed that stock investors were faced with great uncertainties and should buy a stock at a price that should be lower than intrinsic value of the stock,which is determined by the growth prospects of the company. Nowadays intrinsic value refers to the discounted free cash flow that a company can create in a foreseeable future. The stock prices of those high-valued might be a little lower or even higher than their intrinsic value. Hence,when the economy might slow down and policies might not be brought up timely these stocks would be faced with earnings slowdown and valuation contraction. Investing in a stock with a high margin of safety is the right way to invest. Otherwise,it is speculation.

The US stocks fell sharply. Retail sales in July fell1.1% month-on-month, higher than 0.3% expected. Delta variant was negatively impacting the US economic recovery. The US dollar index reached above 93 and wasonly one step away from the high reached at the end of March. Commodity prices fell across the board. Investors are concerned that Delta variant would weigh heavily on the economy.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

这个夏天有点凉。7月份的经济数据全面低于预期。工业增加值和社会消费品零售总额同比增速分别为6.4%和8.5%，预期为7.9%和11.6%。1-7月固定资产投资累计同比增速为10.3%，预期为11.4%；出口同比增速为19.3%，预期为20.8%。同时，对比6月份，所有数据呈现下滑态势。六月份上述四个数据分别为8.3%、12.1%、12.6%和32.2%。之前发布的采购经理人指数和社融增速均指向7月经济会回落。但是，回落幅度超出市场预期。这一方面与Delta病毒和水灾有紧密关系。另一方面，对教培行业的打击也对消费产生不利影响。自教培新规出台后，不断有教培机构倒闭、裁员的报道。教培行业有1000万从业人员，该行业还带动商业租赁、餐饮娱乐等上下游行业。因此，对经济的影响不容小觑。7月数据显示经济增速已处在快速下滑中，未来能否尽早企稳一方面取决于疫情的控制程度以及灾后重建力度，另一方面，取决于支持性政策何时出台。周一，国常会开会讨论经济问题，提出要加强跨周期调节，保持经济运行在合理区间。据媒体报道，本周地方债发行将达到3700亿人民币，创下今年周度发行的高峰。这些地方债将会促进今年下半年和明年年初的基建投资。同时，6月份的贷款加权平均利率也在历史上首次下跌到5%以下，达到4.93%，显示宽信用就在路上。未来财政政策和货币政策将变得更加积极，从而对经济和股市提供支撑。8月13日晚公布数据显示美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得70.2，据较7月份下降了13.5%，仅有的两次更大降幅发生在2020年4月经济关闭期间(-19.4%)和2008年10月大衰退最严重时期(-18.1%)。8月份信心指数大幅下滑主要因为美国消费者担忧疫情对经济增长形成扰动。消费占美国GDP80%左右，因此美国经济未来也将面临下行风险。Delta病毒让全球同此凉热。

周一A股和港股表现疲弱。因经济数据低于预期，有色金属板块在A股和港股均跌幅居前。港股科技板块跌幅也较大，腾讯、美团等大型科网股再次大幅下跌。有媒体报道对大型科网股的所得税优惠已取消。美股道指和标普500再创新高，国债收益率下降。截止周一，标普500已经从2020年3月23日的最低点上涨了一倍。得益于货币和财政政策支持，美国经济创下二战后最快速的复苏。

The economy is cooling down due to Delta variant worldwide. China’s economic data in July came in much lower than expected.Industrial value-added and retail sales in July rose 6.4% and 8.5% year-on-year(yoy) respectively versus 7.9% and 11.6% expected. Fixed asset investment fromJan. to July rose 10.3% yoy versus 11.4% expected. Export grew 19.3% yoy versus 20.3% expected. Also compared with June economic data slowed down across the board. The slowdown was both due to the pandemic and flood in some parts of China. Moreover, new regulations on after-school tutoring also impacted consumption.It is estimated that 10 million people work in after-school tutoring sector.The upstream of tutoring sector is commercial real estate and downstream is catering and other related service sector. After the new regulations came out in July, some training companies went bankruptcy or cut off employment. This would work against overall consumption. When the economy would stabilize depends on when the pandemic can be well-controlled as well as the reconstruction of flooded area. It also depends on whether supporting policy measures can come out timely. It was reported that composite loan interest rate came down to historical low in June to 4.93%. This signals that the easing credit might be right on the way. In addition, special purpose debt issued by local government this week would reach the highest weekly level in 2021. Special purpose debt would support infrastructure investment in 2H2021 and early 2022. We believe these policies would also support stock markets. Due to Delta variant Michigan consumer confidence index in August came down to 70.2, one of the largest monthly drop in history. As consumption makes up 80% of the US GDP, the US economy would also face headwind from the fast spread of Delta variant.

Both A-share and HK market corrected. Due to the weaker-than-expected economic data raw material sector fell sharply. DOW and SP500 rose while Nasdaq fell slightly. Until Monday SP500 doubled from its low on March 23rd,2020. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

港股7月跌幅巨大。港股2021年7月份的下跌是创纪录的。恒生指数和恒生国企指数的跌幅分别为9.9%和13.4%，分别创出2018年10月和2016年1月以来最大月度幅。恒生科技指数当月下跌16.85%，创下该指数自去年7月推出以来的最大月度跌幅。2019年到2020年，港股一方面遭遇了史无前例的社会动荡，另一方面，疫情对香港经济雪上加霜。港股在此期间全球表现落后，2020年大幅跑输A股。2021年初，港股的低估值吸引了国内投资者纷纷南下。但随着春节过后，A股抱团股的大幅下跌以及港府加征印花税，港股再度陷入萎靡。而7月以来政府推出的一系列旨在营造公平社会环境的举措对港股的互联网和教育板块造成重大利空。港股可谓一泻千里。而南下资金也创出了自开通以来连续数日净流出的记录。当前，无论恒生指数还是国企指数估值都处在历史较低水平。恒生指数的静态市净率7月底估值为1.14倍，处在2002年以来18.3%的分位。国企指数的静态市净率为1.2倍，为2002年以来的39.4%的分位。我们认为中国3、4季度经济下行对港股市场仍会有一定的压力，但是另一方面，国内的宽松财政和货币政策也会对市场提供支撑。当下在港股市场可以买什么呢？我们总结了三类可投资的标的：一是价值股，包括银行地产，估值很低，股息率很高，下行风险小；二是制造业成长股，包括新能源、电子及传统制造业的龙头企业，他们中很多具有全球竞争力；三是消费医药长线股，消费中的部分板块竞争格局明确，医药中的一些创新药也被证明具有较强竞争力，可以在估值合理的情况下买入并长期持有。国际投资人近期因政策风险而采取观望态度，但一旦确定中国基本的开放政策不变，政策风险降低后就应该回来。港股市场因受到政治经济等诸多因素的影响，短期获得投资收益概率不大。最好的办法就是在低位买进，比如当前时点，然后做时间的朋友。当然，这非常考验投资者的耐心。

上周全球股市涨跌不一。中国台湾和韩国跌幅居前，而印度、俄罗斯和上证指数涨幅居前。美国国债收益率在Taper预期推动下上升，全球股市成长股回落，价值和周期股上涨。

How to pick stocks in HK market？HK market crashed in July. Hang Seng Index tumbled 9.9% and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 13.6%, the worst month of performance from Oct. 2018 and Jan. 2016 respectively. Hang Seng Index is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-book (TTW PB) 1.1x while China Enterprises Index is valued at TTW PB 1.2x, which is at 18% and 39% percentile from 2002 respectively. HK market performance was poor due to political turmoil in 2019 and COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In 2021 it enjoyed a short period of rally as south-bound capital flushed in due to its low valuation. But this did not last long as after Chinese New Year festival group-holding stocks fell sharply in A-share and HK market also suffered. Big tech stocks in HK were group-holding stocks as well. Then HK government announced that it would raise stamp duty for stock trading at the end of February. HK market tumbled and then bounced up and down until July when policies targeted at after-school tutoring and big tech firms were brought up. HK market would get support in 3Q and 4Q2021 as China’s monetary and fiscal policy would become more accommodative. The current valuation has partly priced in the slowdown of China’s economy. We suggest three ways to invest in HK market. The first is to invest in those value stocks in financial and property sector. Stocks in these sectors do not deliver very strong earnings growth yet offer sizeable dividend yields. The second is to invest in those leading players in new energy, electronic and traditional manufacturing sector. Some companies in these sectors enjoy competitive advantages in the world. The last but not the least is to invest in consumption and healthcare sector. Competitive landscape is beneficial for market leaders in these sectors. In short now it might be a good time to buy HK stocks and be a friend of time.

Last week both A-share and HK market rebounded. The US 10-year treasury yield went up pushed by Taper expectation. Growth stocks fell while value and cyclical stocks rose worldwide.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

别人家的股市。今年美股标普500、道指和纳斯达克指数上涨幅度分别为18.4%、15.9%和14.6%，位列全球16个主要国家和地区股市(包括主要发达和发展中国家以及亚洲主要市场)涨幅榜的第3、第5和第9名。美股迭创新高，主要原因是企业盈利强劲以及流动性充裕。90%的美股上市公司发布了2季度，其中88%的企业盈利增速超预期。2季度总体上市公司盈利增速有望同比上涨92.9%。美股虽迭创新高，但却不如法国股市。法国CAC40指数年初至今上涨23.5%，是全球表现最好的股指。法国股市可以看成一个奢侈品股市。路易威登和爱马仕是主要成分股，年初至今股价分别上涨了38%和55%。路易威登和爱马仕包包今年以来涨价不断。奢侈品价格上涨，一方面是因为流动性充裕。欧央行在7月议息会议上修改了利率前瞻指引，启用“对称性”通胀目标，允许通胀在过渡期内略高于2%。欧央行行长拉加德强调会吸取欧债危机的教训，不会过早收紧货币政策。欧央行的“对称性”目标主要基于历史数据，这使得欧央行面对短期通胀超调可以有充足的理由维持宽松，在操作空间上更加灵活。充裕流动性下，消费者手中现金充足，奢侈品购买需求旺盛。另一方面受到疫情影响，奢侈品原料供应、人工等都不足，导致供应受限。在此情况下，奢侈品价格一路上涨，推动法国股市遥遥领先全球其他国家和地区股市。看完别人家的股市，回到我国的资本市场。年初以来，恒生指数下跌2.6%，是全球主要国家和地区中唯一下跌的股市；而深成指和上证指数分别上涨3% 和1.5%，分别位于全球16个主要国家和地区股市涨幅榜的第12和15名。A股和港股表现落后于全球其他主要国家和地区指数，一是因为中国流动性收紧早于发达国家。去年10月份货币供应量增速就已经拐头向下。另一方面，我国经济景气指标在今年3月份达到顶点，经济开始下行。港股市场因近期遭到政策冲击而调整。但未来A股和港股应有机会。刚发布的7月份货币供应量虽低于预期，但货币政策应不会更紧，而财政政策也将积极起来。所以，对自己家的股市也不应过分悲观。

A股和港股下跌。主要受周三公布的社融数据不及预期影响。美股上涨，7月生产者价格指数同比涨幅7.8%，为2010年以来最高水平。

Other people’s stock markets. Year-to-date the US stock market reached one record high after another, supported by strong earnings growth and abundant liquidity.Listed companies are expected to deliver 92.9% year-on-year earnings growth in 2nd quarter 2021. Year-to-date SP500, DOW and Nasdaq rose 18.4%, 15.9% and 14.6% respectively. Among the 16 global major indexes they were ranked at the third,fifth and ninth in terms of gains. Yet the best performing market is CAC40 of France.It rose 23.5% year-to-date, boosted by luxury brands including LVMH and Hermes.LVMH and Hermes saw their stock price rise 38% and 55%. Their bags’ prices increased quite a lot in 2021. On one hand liquidity is abundant. The European Central Bank (ECB) signaled a dovish tone in its monetary policy meeting in July. Lagarde, the chairwoman of the bank, said that ECB would not make the same mistake in Euro-debt crises in 2011, when it withdrew supporting policies earlier and caused the European economy to dip again. Consumers have a lot of money on hands due to the easy monetary policy, boosting demand for luxury goods.On the other hand due to the pandemic both raw materials and labor were in shortage. The supply is hence limited. As a result, luxury brands raised their product prices this year again and again. As a comparison, Hang Seng Index fell 2.6% year-to-date and was the only stock index that fell among the 16 global indexes.Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index rose 3% and 1.5% respectively,ranked at 13th and 15th among the 16 indexes. That both A-share and HK stock market lagged behind major indexes in the world is mainly because China took back liquidity earlier than any other country in the world. Money supply witnessed turning point in last October. And economy peaked out in March 2021 as seen from business climate index. However, both monetary and fiscal policy would become more proactive to deal with the falling economy. Investors should become optimistic about the stock market.

The US stocks rose again. July PPI in the US came in higher than expected. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

投资和投机。投资和投机本质的区别其实并不大。有人认为持有时间短的就是投机，持有时间长的是投资。似乎是专门针对这个不太明显的区别，A股市场有一个词叫做价值投机，就是指虽然是长时间持有股票，但却是在股价泡沫中的坚持持有。投机其实是一个中性词，在英文中的对应词汇“speculation”没有任何贬义。那为什么在国内明明是投机，偏要说成是投资呢。一方面，国内的投机有贬义含义；另一方面，投资更像是一个高大上的事业，而投机更像是散户就可以做的事情。对机构投资者来说，跟散户一样投机至少显得水平不太高。所以，经常能看到买了几百倍市盈率股票的基金经理大谈价值投资，其实所谈的跟价值投资一点关系也没有。价值投资两个基本要素：一个是坚实的基本面，一个是低估值。趋势易寻，但基本面好且估值又便宜的股票不好找。但对于坚持价值投资的基金经理，本职工作就是寻找这些股票。彼得·林奇在富达工作13年，13年如一日，从早到晚大量阅读各种研究报告、公司的定期报告，就是为了找到这样的股票。查理·芒格说过投资从来都不是容易的。避难趋易也是人之常情。买高估值股票的基金经理其实本质上是趋势投资者，或者说是价值投机的践行者。基金经理在解释时会说对公司基本面有信仰，可以看得很远，至于是10年后还是30年后都不重要。重要的是当前估值虽然很高，但还能上涨，能为投资人赚钱；重要的是客户很满意。如果坚持了价值投资，但赚不到钱，那就很难向客户交代了。最近客户恨不得按手买入、建议抄作业的报道流传甚广。A股市场作为一个趋势市场，投机赚钱相对容易。能够帮助客户赚钱的投机有什么不好吗？当然没有。靠投机赚钱的李默弗尔曾经威震华尔街，只要及时收手就好。

A股涨跌不一。上证指数上涨，而创业板指下跌。因恒大债务问题得以解决，A股和港股房地产板块大幅上涨。美股道指和标普500再创新高，7月消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，高于预期的5.3%，但除去食品和能源的核心消费者价格指数环比6月份只上涨了0.3%，预期为0.4%。二手车价格只上涨了0.2%，而6月份上涨了10%。意味着通胀很可能就是暂时的，联储在收缩流动性上并没有落后于通胀。

About investment and speculation. There is no stark difference between investment and speculation.Some deems that investment means a longer holding period while speculation means a rather short holding period. A new word invented in A-share, which seems to counter this difference. It is called investment speculation, which refers to those investors who hold stocks for a long time but in bubbles. Value investment requires two factors: one is solid fundamental, the other is low valuation. Some think that it is challenging to find companies with solid fundamental and low valuation. For a portfolio manager it is his or her job to do this. Peter Lynch,the famous investor, read companies’ quarterly reports and annual reports as well as analysts’ research notes day by day for 13 years when he worked at Fidelity. Investment is never easy, as Charlie Munger said. It is also natural for a portfolio manager to seek the easy way to do investment, such as following the trend. In A-share it actually is easier to make money by following trends.The portfolio manager can still talk about value investment despite high valuation. Their excuse is that they have a firm belief in the company’s fundamentals and can hold the stock for a long time. Whether the stock’s valuation can come down in 3 years or 10 years is not that important. The most important is that they can help clients make money. Livermore in “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” made a lot of money for clients. This means that speculation is just a tool for making money. If he could stop losses earlier the results would be good.

A-share was mixed on Wednesday. Shanghai Composite Index rose while Chinext Index fell. It was reported that government is helping China Evergrande Group to relieve its debt burden. This news boosted property stocks in both A-share and HK market. The US July CPI grew 5.4% year-on-year, higher than 5.3% expected. Yet core CPI, which excluded food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-on-month versus 0.4% expected. The used vehicle price, which rose 10% in June, only rose 0.2% in July. This supports Fed’s view that inflation is transitory.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。