时代变了。1958年夏天，美国长期国债收益率首次明显超过了普通股的股息收益率。根据历史经验，股票收益率接近债券收益率的时候，通常市场将大幅下跌。1891年、1907年和1929年的股市崩盘都证实了这一点。因此，投资人视股票的长期股息收益率高于债券收益率为天经地义的事情，因为股票的风险高于债券，因此股票的股息收益率也应该高于债券的收益率。一旦股票的价格过高使得股息收益率低于债券收益率，抛售股票的时机就到了。但是这次股票的表现并未如预期那样大幅下跌。反而在股票收益率跌至债券收益率下方之后的12个月，股市一路飙升，并且一直上涨到20世纪60年代初。估值指标失灵了的根本原因是股票能够对冲通货膨胀，而债券则没有这个功能。60多年前发生的事情让人警醒：当时代变化的时候，原有的规则就全都不适用了。如果还墨守成规，就会错失好的投资机会，并很有可能遭受投资损失。今天在股票市场中，也有很多改变在发生，有很多都是历史性的。比如中美的消费者价格指数之差是历史高点，比如今年发达国家的经济增速和通货膨胀率都可能是40年来最高的水平，比如百年未有之大变局下的经济、社会、国际地缘政治关系等方方面面的改变。作为投资人，我们要时刻警醒自己，因为一句“大人，时代变了”就可能把我们之前坚信的完全颠倒过来，使“风口”变成“刀口”，使投资造成重大损失。投资要勇立潮头，需要不断的学习和思考，需要积极发现时代变迁中的各种机会和风险，需要迅速的调整和改变思维方式。

A股和港股上涨。白酒板块大幅上涨，市场预期中秋白酒消费保持平稳。港股科技指数大幅上涨，美团和腾讯分别上涨8%和5%以上。新能源板块大幅调整，盐湖股份复牌上涨300%以上，分流了该板块的资金。美参议院通过1万亿美元的基建法案，在卡特彼勒的上涨推动下道指和标普创出新高。国债收益率上涨，FAANG股票下跌推动纳指下跌。世卫组织专家认为新冠疫情远没有到结束的时候。全球15%的人口接种了新冠疫苗。只有世界上所有国家都接种疫苗，新的毒株才不会出现。Delta病毒具有来的快、去的也快的特征，从印度和英国的情况看新增病例数都呈倒V字型。

It would be different times. In summer of 1958 the dividend yield of stocks was higher than bond yield. This provoked market concerns. According to what happened previously every time when stock yield was higher than bond’s yield the stock market would crash as seen in 1891, 1907 and 1929. The reason was because stocks were riskier than bonds they should offer higher yield. But this time things changed. Twelve months after the stock yield came in lower than bond yield stock began to rise until the early of 1960’s. This is because stock is a good tool to defend inflation while bond does not have this function. What happened 60 years ago sounds alarm for investors. When times turns to a new page, the previous rules do not work at all. Investors should change their mindset quickly to adjust to the new world. Otherwise, they might miss good investment opportunities or even make big losses. Nowadays there are a lot of things changing. For example: the divergence between China and the US CPI year-on-year growth rate in July could reach the largest ever. The inflation and GDP growth rate in the developed nations could be the highest in 40 years.Also there are a lot of things changed whether in domestic economy, society and the internaitonal geopolitics as the world is experiencing the changes never happened in a century. Investors should remain alert and humble to the market and try to find opportunities in a changing world.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Liquor sector rallied.Yet north-bound capital was net outflow in liquor sector. New energy sector fell due to that Qinghai Salt Lake resumed trading and absorbed capital from other stocks in the sector. Tech stocks rebounded strongly in HK market with Meituan and Tencent rising 8% and 5% respectively.  Senate passed US$ 1 trillion infrastructure bill. Caterpillar rose and pushed DOW and SP500 to record high. The 10-year treasury yield rose and FAANG stocks fell across the board. An expert from WHO said that COVID-19 pandemic was closer to the beginning than to the ending. 15% of world population got vaccinated so far. The new variant would not emerge only when all of the 200+ countries in the world get vaccinated.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

价值就在这里。彼得·林奇在《战胜华尔街》中写道：在选择投资领域时，我总是青睐那些萧条的而不是繁荣的产业。在一个即使有增长也极为缓慢的萧条产业中，弱者出局而幸存者得到更大的市场份额。如果一家公司在一个停滞不前的市场上获得的份额持续增加，而另一家公司则在一个激动人心的市场上为避免份额的减少而竭力挣扎，那么前者的境况无疑要比后者好得多。周一，地产和银行等传统板块大幅上涨。这些板块之前大幅调整，很多投资人认为这些板块的发展前景暗淡，不具有投资价值，因此弃之如敝履。其实这些板块的估值已经达到历史最低点。比如房地产板块，其静态市盈率估值处在2000年以来的0.18%的分位，意味着当前时点估值是20年最低。房地产板块的市场集中度很低。“三条红线”政策其实是帮助地产行业去产能，而大房企的竞争优势在政策高压下反而能够凸显，有利于他们提升市场份额。银行板块作为一个高杠杆行业，以市净率估值更合理。而它的静态市净率也处在2000年以来0.18%的分位，跟地产板块一样，处在20年来的最低点。房地产公司的股东近期一直在出手增持，认为股价很便宜，这也说明房地产公司的盈利是有保证的，不会大幅下滑。而银行板块因为去年的让利实体造成了业绩的低基数，今年上半年的业绩应该会比较靓丽。估值处在历史底部以及基本面有保证，银行和房地产的股票大概率已经见底。彼得·林奇的话翻译过来就是再暗淡的行业也会有胜出者，而这些夕阳行业的胜出者远比朝阳行业的落伍者更值得投资。对于这些低估的板块，套用一句当下流行的话：买与不买，价值都在这里。

A股和港股上涨。中国7月的消费者价格指数和生产者价格指数的同比增速均超出市场预期。因国家收储，猪肉价格止跌回升；同时，暑期各种服务类价格上涨带动CPI涨幅超预期。PPI价格由大宗商品价格带动超预期。PPI和CPI剪刀差继续扩大，反应下游利润率有可能进一步受到压制。美股中的复苏股受到新冠疫情加剧的影响而回落，带动标普500和道指下跌，纳指上涨。市场等待美国7月份的通胀数据，CPI和PPI将分别在本周三和周四发布。

There is investment value in property and bank sector. Peter Lynch wrote in his famous book “Beat the street” that  he prefers to buy those companies in declining sectors rather than in promisingsectors. The reason is that those companies that can win more market share in a declining sector usually perform better in stock market than those in a promising sector face with cutthroat competition. Both property and bank sector belong to declining sectors. Investors do not want to invest in these two sectors as their growth prospects seem to be bleak. Yet their valuation is at a 20-year low level. Property sector is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) of 7.15x, which is at 0.36% percentile from 2000 after Monday’s rally. Bank sector is a leveraged sector. Hence, price-to-book value is (PB) appropriate for this sector. Its TTW PB is valued at 0.64x, which put it at 0.18% percentile from 2000. It was reported that some property companies bought their stocks as they deemed their stocks very cheap. Hence, the market concernabout these companies’ earnings growth in 2021 should be alleviated to a great extent. Banks delivered a lackluster earnings growth in 2020 due to that they were required to give out part of their profits to the industrial enterprises.So this year their earnings growth should be stronger given a low base in 2020.Investing in the leading players in both property and bank sector is actuallyto invest in good companies at bargain prices. You might not like this kind of investment.But there is deep value.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Both consumer priceindex (CPI) and Producer price index (PPI) in July in China came in higher than expected. The higher CPI was driven by service prices while PPI was driven by commodity prices. CPI and PPI divergence widened in July, implying that downstream and manufacturing firms would be faced with margin pressure. COVID-19 pandemic is worsening in the US, dragging down those recovery stocks. DOW andSP500 fell while Nasdaq rose. Market is waiting for CPI and PPI to come out on coming Wednesday and Thursday. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

群体心理。勒庞在其著名的《乌合之众》中阐述了群体的特点，其中有一些对股票投资也适用，包括群体是缺乏理性的，群体的智商低于个人的智商，感情主导群体的方向等。A股市场的极致割裂其实在很大程度上也是群体意识主导的。某些板块的高估值和过热显而易见，但是资金仍然不断的追捧这些板块，其实不是基于基本面，而是真正的无脑买入。当前，无论是看好的板块还是不看好的板块，市场预期都惊人的一致。反应在估值上就是看好的板块估值需要看得更远，几十年后的估值能提供支撑也可以；不看好的板块，股息率也高到不可思议的水平，反应了市场对这些板块的彻底抛弃。投资股票应该基于理性，随大流买入热门股也许能够短时间赚到钱，但如果这些股票被抛弃，亏损也是不可避免的。白酒板块从春节之后的高点下跌了32%。当初看好白酒板块的很多基金要么承受回撤，要么纷纷远离。市场一致预期达成之际其实就是股价到达高点之时。因此，一抱团就崩盘其实是很自然的，合乎逻辑的。

美联储缩减债券购买箭在弦上。上周五发布的7月美国非农就业人数为94.3万人，超市场预期的87万人。如7月通胀数据再超预期，则美联储最早在本月的杰克森年会上将明确表示削减债券购买，而正式宣布有可能在9、10月份。近期美国财政部发债规模缩减，市场认为美联储缩减债券购买规模将与美国财政部的发债规模缩减同步，这将消除因缩减债券购买规模而引起的市场恐慌。非农数据发布后，美元上行，10年期美债收益率也上涨到1.3%的水平。我们上周判断美国国债收益率上行概率增加，现在基本可以得到验证。美元有可能跟随美债收益率一起进入上升通道，但幅度应该不会很大。强势美元需要美国经济基本面好于欧洲，因美元指数中欧元的占比是最高的，高达56%。欧央行已经明确要支持经济复苏，不会犯2011年过早撤回支持经济的政策举措。考虑到美国要收缩货币而欧元区仍处在货币放水阶段，有可能欧元区的经济在3、4季度好于美国，支撑欧元兑美元走强。另外，通胀的压力将持续存在，对基本金属、贵金属还是其他大宗商品提供价格支撑。我们认为这些板块也不会受到美国回收流动性的影响。

Group psychology. In “Psychology Des Foules”Le Pen described the characteristics of group psychology including lacking reasoning power, that the average IQ of group is lower than individuals (that is obvious) and feelings guide group to act. These apply to A-share market well. Some stocks and sectors are overvalued and even in bubble.Yet there are still many investors piling money into these stocks without thinking. Some sectors or stocks are so undervalued that their dividend yield can be as high as double digit. The consensus on those hot sectors is so high that analysts have to predict the companies’ earnings in 40 years. This sounds ridiculous but the reasoning behind is that a good company can operate for a very long time. We deem that investment should be based on logic and reasoning. While investors might make money on some hot sectors in a short time they risk losing a lot when these hot sectors cool down. Liquor sector fell 32% from its high before Chinese New Year festival. Those funds that liquor stocks take heavy weighting have to bear the losses or cut exposure to this sector. It always happens that when consensus is reached the stock price reaches its top.

The Federal reserve is going to taper soon. The US non-farm payroll in July came in 943,000, higher than expected. If July inflation goes above expectation the Federal Reserve might start to announce taper soon. The earliest time would be the Jackson Hole meeting in late August. Some analysts thought that the Federal Reserve could cut off the amount of bond purchase at the same time the Treasury reduces its bond sales. This would decrease taper tantrum to a great extent. 10-year treasury yield rose after the non-farm payroll data released, as we have predicted in “The 10-year treasury yield could go up very likely” last Friday.  The US dollar index went up as well. But it might not be on an upward trend. Euro, which takes 56% in the US dollar index, could strengthen against the US dollar. This is because the European central bank  still releases liquidity to support economy for 3Q and 4Q this year and European economy could be stronger than the US.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

美国国债收益率走低。美国10年期国债收益率本周三短暂下跌到了1.13%，周四又回到了1.2%的水平，创下六个月以来的新低，因为大量资金流入国债市场。截止本周二，国债收益率从3月31日的高点1.74%下跌了57个基点达到1.17%，但是与去年底相比仍上升26个基点。资金狂热地涌入债券市场可以看做是一个反向指标，即债券收益率的下跌即将结束。过去几个月债券收益率下跌反应的是经济放缓。同时，Delta变种也助推了债券收益率的下跌。但因当前美国通胀水平高达6%，收益率略高于1%的债券其实没有任何投资价值。另外，当债券收益率上涨时，即使10个基点的上涨，债券的本金也会遭受较大损失，足以抹掉利息的收入。当前对国债收益率的走向有很多分歧。有分析师认为30年期的国债收益率可能从当前的1.85%下降到1.2%，这将会产生24.1%的资本增值收益。分析师认为，债券收益率没有如预期上涨，主要因为市场预期他们上涨的人太多了，而真理往往掌握在少数人手中。我们在这次也许不一样中分析了美国10年期国债收益率的实际和名义利率与通胀的关系。我们判断由于通胀的持续上升，即使名义利率上涨，实际利率作为名义利率和通胀的差值，还是会往下走。但现实是10年期国债收益率的名义利率持续下跌，而通胀保持在较高水平，导致实际收益率一直处在较低水平。这也意味着当下黄金有很好的基本面支撑。如美联储实施缩减购债规模，名义利率将会抬升。但如果抬升幅度不大，而通胀仍在高位，则实际利率仍然保持在较低水平。我们在美联储能退出宽松货币政策吗？一文中分析过，因美国巨额债务，且长期经济增速保持在2-3%的水平，其国债收益率即使上升，幅度也不会很大，2%有可能是极限水平。

A股和港股均下跌，美股涨跌不一。周四A股和港股再度下跌，港股科技股领跌。快手接近95%的股份在六个月限售期结束后解禁，造成股价大跌15%，带动恒生科技指数下跌2.1%。A股的热门板块光伏、锂电池和芯片均有所调整，其中一些板块已经过热，风险较大。美股上涨，上周首次申请失业救济人数符合预期。市场关注周五发布的7月份非农就业数据。如果超出市场预期，则可能促使美联储加快缩减债券购买规模的步伐。

The fall of the US 10-year treasury yield might come to an end. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 1.2% on Thursday, continuing a volatile stretchof trading for the benchmark measure. The yield briefly dipped below 1.13% on Wednesday before bouncing back in late morning trading. Until Tuesday when the yield fell to 1.17%, it dropped 57 basis point since the high on March 31stwhen it reached 1.74% but still rose 26 basis point from the end of last year.The fall of the treasury yield was mainly driven by the influx of capital. The fevered buying is a contrarian indicator of rising risk in bonds. Other reasons include economy slowing down and the Delta variant. Also there are so many investors who expect the yield to rise, which might be another reason that it went the other way. Yet with inflation at 6% bond offers no investment value. Also if yield goes up by 10 basis point the price decline would totally wipe out all of the interestincome for a whole year. We have analyzed nominal treasury yield and real treasury yield in “It might be different this time ” and pointed out the real treasury yield would fall if inflation rises more than nominal treasury yield.It turns out that the real treasury yield went down as nominal treasury yield fell with inflation at a high level. But the treasury yield, even if it could go up, can not rise too much. The reason lies in the heavy debt burden of the US government. With close to US$ 30 trillion debt the US cannot afford to pay for interest rate when it reaches above 2%. So we expect the rising yield but do not expect it rise too much.

A-share and HK stocks fell while the US stocks rallied. Kuaishou Technology is faced with close to 95% of its shares unlocked. Its stock price fell 15% and causes Hang Seng Technology Index to fall more than 2%. The hot sectors including chips, new energy and photovoltaic sector corrected with some sectors over-crowded and in bubbles. Last week the initial jobless claim came in line with expectation. Market pays a close attention to the non-farm payroll to be released on Friday. This data could determine the tapering timing of the Fed. The US stocks rallied with recovery stocks rising the most.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

股市里最重要的事。A股市场是一个非常丰富的市场。说它丰富，不仅是上市公司越来越多，各种行业都让投资人了解个遍，更因为参与者众多。个人投资者被称作散户，专业投资者被称为机构。散户不见得水平低，机构也不见得水平高。机构应该构建投资组合，分散风险。但是有些机构和散户炒股一样一个产品只配置一只股票且加杠杆，市场大幅波动时，产品净值短时间大幅下挫，为投资人造成较大损失。这些机构其实不是在投资，也不是在炒股，而是在赌博。而拿着投资人的钱赌博，有违受托责任和职业道德。个人投资者也有很多加杠杆亏掉本金的例子，特别是2015年股灾期间。一只股票加了一倍杠杆之后，如果股票质押折扣率比较高，股票一个跌停可能就把本金亏没了。2015年的股灾因为部分个股的估值太高，跌停通常都高达十多个，有些投资人因此损失惨重。只投资一只股票其实非常考验人的风险承受能力。美国的FAANG股票和微软都是科技巨头，股价持续上涨多年。可是其中的微软和苹果在2000年网络泡沫破灭之后都跌去80-90%的股价。在网络泡沫前买入微软和苹果并能承受住这个跌幅一直持有到现在的投资人应该寥寥无几。这需要非常乐观的精神和无比坚定的信仰。所以，投资股票最重要的就是管控风险。无论是个人投资者还是机构投资者，如果不能管控好风险，就很容易被淘汰出局。巴菲特说的投资第一条原则是保证本金安全，第二条请参见第一条是有深刻道理的。

A股和港股上涨，美股涨跌不一。周三A股和港股上涨，港股科技股领涨。市场从对网游股的打压中恢复。因疫情在澳门扩散，博彩股全线大跌。花旗预计今年的博彩股赌收将恢复到2019年40%的水平，持续推荐。7月份财新服务业采购经理人指数较6月份大幅上扬。美国10年期国债收益率非常令人费解地再度下行，连美联储副主席都对此感到惊讶。经济数据喜忧参半，7月小非农就业数据大幅低于预期，但7月供应管理协会服务业采购经理人指数超市场预期。道指下跌近1个百分点，纳指小幅上涨。投资人担忧经济、刺激措施和企业盈利三方面都已经到达顶点。美联储不具投票权官员认为缩减债券购买规模正当时，不会引起市场恐慌。

The most important thing in stock market. There are so many companies listed in A-share that investors can get a glimpse of every kind of sector. There are also investors from all walks. Some do not get trained professionally but still buy and sell stocks as a daily routine. The others, though lack professional background as well,improve themselves by learning the principles of investment on their own.These investors usually can make money in the stock market. Some investors do not have any risk control. A case in point is in 2015 stock market crash. It seems not unusual that some investors invested in one stock via leverage and lost their principals after the stock reached down limits. It is not so difficult to find out that under certain mortgage ratio an investor would lose all of his or her principal once the stock reaches down limits. Obviously these investors did not calculate this simple math. Or they calculated but invested in the stock by hoping that the worst thing would not happen. For these investors they are actually gambling in the stock market and doomed to lose all of their money as that is the nature of gambling. Also investing in one stock not a portfolio would be a big test for investor’s belief. Both Microsoft and Apple are ten-baggers. Yet in 2000 internet bubble burst their stock prices fell by 80-90%. That’s why what Buffett said for investment is full of wisdom. He said the first principle of investment to keep principal safe and the second principle is to revisit the first one. It is easier to lose money in the stock market than to make money. Risk management is the most important part in investment.

A-share and HK stocks rose while the US stocks were mixed. Gaming stocks recovered from the previous day losses in both A-share and HK market. As ADP data came in much lower than expected and GM earnings disappointed, DOW fell close to 1% while Nasdaq rose slightly. Fed Vice-chairman still saw inflation go up and expected to raise interest rate in 2023. The US 10-year treasury yield continued to fall amid pessimism that economy, earnings and stimulus were peaking out.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

外资怎么看中国最近的政策举措。我们总结下来，老外看中国政策分为两派：一派是认为中国政府出台的政策举措是帮助中国老百姓改善生活质量，不论是对教配行业还是对互联网平台的打击；一派认为中国的政策会扩散到其他行业，在中国市场投资的不确定性大幅提高。截止上周，香港市场并没有大规模资金外流的迹象。但是，对一些长期投资的共同基金，他们的决策过程会相对较长，需要几周的时间，最终也许会有撤出的。对中国政策持正面态度的外资认为中国政府非常清楚私营企业在中国经济中的作用。私营企业提供了80%的就业岗位，贡献了80%的科技和创新。因此，中国政府会积极促进私营经济的发展。对教培和互联网平台的打击，是为了帮助孩子减轻学业负担，促进公平公正。对一些互联网大公司的打压并不是打击这些公司本身，而是对那些试图在政治上施加影响力的商业领导者。这种情况在欧美是很普遍的，但是中国不希望跟随欧美的老路。对于美国限制对中国上市公司的投资，该投资人认为美国投资人占中国A股和香港市场总市值的比例不到3%。中国的资本市场没有美国投资人也没有大不了的。对于有些人批评中国政府对采取的政策举措不透明，投资人认为中国政府说到做到，并且非常具体和公开。当前，中国互联网公司的市盈率是全球同业70%，市值是1/10到1/3，意味着估值中隐含的风险溢价非常高。由于政府对数据的管控，这些互联网公司可能无法使数据转化为利润，所以垄断地位不能帮他们带来垄断利润。其实对互联网公司最大的风险是监管还没有发生，而中国互联网公司监管已经发生了，意味着风险已经释放了。

A股缩量下跌，港股放量下跌。A股和港股早盘大幅下跌，随后探底回升。因官媒对网络游戏的抨击，A股和港股的网游股大跌。前期热门股包括芯片、新能源等板块大幅下挫。因疫情扩散，医药行业领涨两市。美股大涨，10年期国债收益率探底回升，银行和工业板块领涨。虽然美国疫情新增病例已经超过今年4月份的水平，但投资人对此似乎并不担心。因疫苗发生作用，此次住院人数并未随新增病例数增加而增加。投资人预期2、3周之后美国新增病例将会趋缓。

How international investors view China capital market? They fall into two types. One type is still optimistic about China’s stock market and believes that the policies that targeted after-school tutoring sector and internet giants are to help relieve kids’ burden and promote fairness and justice. The other type thinks that these policies aroused uncertainties and doubt that other sectors would be targeted by policy. By the end of last week there was no sign that capital exited HK stock market. Yet mutual funds might take weeks to make decisions. Some of them might exit HK market at last. But this should not be a worry. A long-term Asia investor who fell into the first type thought that China knows well that private businesses contribute 80% of the employment and the same amount of new technology and innovation. So the policies are definitely not to target these private enterprises but those industrialists and business leaders who tried to parlay commercial success into political influence. As to the US might restrict investing in China companies, the investor said that US investors account for less than 3% of China and HK market cap combined. China’s markets can survive without the US. Currently the big internet giants in China are valued at 30% discount to their global peers in terms of price-to-earnings ratio and one third or one tenth of their global peers in terms of market cap. This implies that risk premium is pretty high. And for internet companies the biggest risk is actually that supervision risk is looming. But for Chinese internet companies the risk has turned into reality. Hence, it might be time to think about buying into these stocks.

A-share fell with contracted volume and HK stocks fell with big trading volume. The criticize from official media to the gaming companies caused gaming stocks to fall sharply in both A-share and HK market. The US stocks rallied as 10-year treasury yield bottomed up. Bank and industrial sector led the rally. Investors seem not to be concerned about the surge of new cases as hospitalization rates remained low.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。