中国老百姓的钱都花在了哪里。上周课外培训行业受到政策的强力打压。根据券商的测算：如果从小学1年级到高中3年级全部课外培训都不让在周末和寒暑假开展的话，则上市的K12培训机构46-80%的收入就没有了。年初以来，培训类上市公司的股价最大跌幅达到97%，基本上反映了政策的严厉程度。投资人会很疑惑: 明明年初还是朝阳产业，怎么到了年中就成了夕阳产业了？其实产业还是在的，但是过度商业化之后就变成了让老百姓不能幸福的行业了。教育、医疗和房地产行业被称作中国老百姓的“新三座大山”，主要是因为这些支出占老百姓支出的比例过高。根据中国统计局，我国城镇居民家庭个人消费支出中，医疗支出占比从1993年的2.7%上涨到2019年的8.1%，26年间占比上涨了3倍。住房支出占个人支出比例从1993年的6.6%上涨到24.2%，26年间占比上涨了3.7倍。教育支出没有单独的统计数据。从个人感受看，这个支出也是刚性的。虽然我国人均GDP达到1.1万美金，但是城镇居民花在食品上的支出仍占个人全部支出的27.6%。加上住房支出，吃和住合计占个人支出比例达到51.8%，再加上医疗支出和消费支出，估计中国老百姓大概80%的钱花在了维持基本的生活和发展需求上。而美国个人在食品和住宿上的支出占全部个人支出的比例仅为5.75%，医疗支出为16.4%，在教育上的支出没有单独的统计数据，即使教育支出跟医疗支出占比相当，也比中国老百姓在吃、住、医疗和教育上的支出占比低很多。

外资并未从香港大规模撤出。随着中国政府对互联网平台和教育行业的整治，港股的科技股以及教育股大幅下跌。港股也从6月底至今表现疲弱，但从港币对美元汇率来看，外资并没有明显的撤出。2020年4月到2021年2月，港币对美元汇率多次处在强方兑换区间，港府不得不入市买入美元，卖出港币。从2021年2月底，港币对美元汇率开始走软，到2021年4月达到7.785高点之后港币开始重新走强。近期中美围绕香港不断有针对性的制裁出台。但美方又积极寻求同中方开展对话，本周中美将在天津举行高层对话。中美关系对香港股市有较大影响。2019年和2020年港股市场表现疲弱，跟中美关系恶化有很大关系。当前港股经过连续调整，很多板块和个股估值都回落到很有吸引力的区间，具备投资价值。

Chinese consumers’ burden is heavy. The policy that targets after-school training was a big hit to those listed training companies in both HK and Nasdaq. Some investors are bewildered as to why the training sector, which was a promising sector at the beginning of 2021, turned into a sunset sector in just a couple of months. The so-called “new three mountains” for Chinese consumers are housing, medi-care and education. According to China Statistic Bureau, spending on medicine and healthcare comprised 2.7% of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in 1993 and 8.1% in 2019. The ratio increased by 2 times in 26 years. Similarly, housing comprised 6.6% of PCE in 1993 and 24.2% in 2019. Although per capita GDP is above US$ 11000 in 2020, Chinese consumers still spent 27.6% of PCE on food. The food and housing combined together took 51.8% of PCE. There is no specific data about education and training. But from personal experience expenditure on this should not be low. If we assume education and training expenditure takes 10% of PCE, Chinese consumers spend about 80% of PCE on basic living and development needs. In comparison,the US consumers only spend 5.75% on food and housing and 16.5% on healthcare.Even if education expenditure is as high as healthcare, the US consumers would spend close to 40% on basic living and development needs, which is much less than Chinese consumers. Hence,it is understandable that policy target the "new three mountains".

There is no large international money exiting from HK. From April 2020 toearly Feb. 2021 HK to US dollar exchange rate hit strong exchange side. HK Monetary Authority had to sell HK dollar and buy the US dollar during this period. But from the end of Feb. 2021 to April 2021, the HK dollar depreciated against the US dollar. After it reached HK$ 7.785, the lowest point in two months, it began to appreciate again. Recently the Sino-US tensions rose around HK. HK market performed poorly in 2019 and 2020 when Sino-US relationship went low. Yet this situation might not last long as China and US will hold talks this week.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

滞涨的魅影。美国10年期国债收益率近期创出5个月新低，其中一部分原因是投资人担心经济回落。同时，美国6月份消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，继5月份数据后再次超出市场预期。经济回落叠加通胀上涨让人联想起上世纪70年代美国遭遇的滞涨危机。当时消费者价格指数同比上涨幅度从1974年2月到1975年4月都是双位数，最高同比涨幅为1975年12月份的12.3%。70年代的滞涨一个原因是石油供应短缺，能源价格飙升。1973年11月到1975年2月，能源CPI同比上涨幅度惊人，最高涨幅在1974年3月到9月期间超过30%。而GDP同比增速在1974年2季度到1975年2季度连续4个季度负增长。我们认为当前美国经济增长状况良好，虽然明年因今年的高基数，有可能发生GDP同比增速下降的情况，但是环比应还是保持增长的态势。石油价格有没有可能成为通胀的推手呢？欧佩克+上周末做出了每日增产40万桶原油产量的决定，同时计划在2022年9月之前，在市场条件允许的情况下全面取消580万桶/日的减产份额。欧佩克的减产决议对油价看似利空，但受经济复苏带动，一些分析师认为油价将会上涨到80美元每桶。如果油价保持在高位，在明年的某个时间点，美国有可能陷入“类滞胀”。短暂“类滞胀”不会对市场带来较大冲击。但如最后不幸演绎成持续的滞涨，持有现金是不划算的，债券和股票也会遭遇双杀，只有商品是值得配置的。滞涨，但愿它只是个魅影。

周四A股小幅上涨，港股大涨。美股连续第三个交易日反弹，科技股涨幅领先。一些分析师认为从去年10月以来，美股就没有经历过像样的调整，8、9月份有可能会有调整的风险。野村证券发表报告表示，郑州洪灾将在短期内对商业活动和通胀产生重大影响。但洪灾一旦结束被压抑的消费及投资需求将会得到释放，特别是对汽车(因当地许多已损坏)和城市基础设施的需求。该行指，降雨和洪水也可能会在未来数周略微提高河南和邻近省份食品价格。郑州2020年GDP总量为1.2万亿人民币(占全国GDP的1.2%)，总人口达1,260万(占全国人口的0.9%)，中国重要的国民经济枢纽之一。郑州所在的河南省人口占全国的7%，2020年对全国GDP的贡献率为5.4%。河南为农业粮食和矿产品(如铝及煤)的出产地。

The looming stagnation. The US 10-year treasury yield fell to 1.20% earlier this week, a five-month low on the concern that economy growth would lose momentum. Moreover,May CPI in the US rose 5.4% year-on-year (yoy), higher than expected. The combination of a slowing economy and high inflation reminds investors of the stagflation in the 1970s. The monthly CPI rose at double digit from Feb. 1974 to April 1975. And oil price pushed CPI higher, which rose at more than 30% per month from Nov. 1973 to Feb. 1975. The US economy grows well currently. Yet in 2022 it might see negative yoy growth due to the high base this year. OPEC+ reached a deal last weekend to increase oil production by 4 million barrels per day and to lift the restriction of 5.8 million barrels per day in Sept 2022. While this deal hit the oil price hard on Monday, analysts believed that oil prices would reach US$80 per barrel given strong demand and supply shortage. If oil prices can be maintained at high levels, some time in 2022 we might see stagflation in the US. And if it turns into a sustained stagflation, cash, bond and stocks would all suffer. The only asset that can defend inflation is commodity.

A-share rose slightly and HK market rallied. The US stock market continued to rise for the third day in a row. Tech stocks rose the most. The US stock market has not experienced more than 5% correction since last October. Some analysts believed that it would see correction in August or September. Nomura believed that Zhengzhou flood would push up inflation in the short term in Zhengzhou and Henan Province. But it would also help car consumption and boost demand for infrastructure.Henan Province, of which Zhengzhou is the capital, is a key province that provides grain and manufactures aluminum and coal. Henan has a population of 96.4 million, 7% of the total population of China. It contributed 7% of national GDP in 2020. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

成长股估值处于历史高位。年初以来创成长指数是A股所有指数中涨幅最高的。截止2021年7月21日，上涨31.6%。创成长指数包括50只创业板个股，其中前10大权重股占创成长市值的73.6%。前十大权重股分别是宁德时代（权重为17.2%，下同）、东方财富（13.8%）、爱尔眼科（9.1%）、亿纬锂能（7.4%）、卓胜微（7.2%）、汇川技术（6.4%）、爱美客（3.6%）、阳光电源（2.9%）、智飞生物（2.88%）和欧普康视（2.76%）。这10大权重股中静态市盈率最低的是东方财富，60倍；最高的是爱美客，394倍。创成长指数总体静态市盈率为84.8倍，处在历史上86.7%的分位。当前估值水平低于2020年7月和2021年2月高点的估值水平，创成长指数在前述两个时间点的静态市盈率分别为102.7和95倍。创成长指数分别从前两次的高点回落18.7%和29.8%。无论是电动车还是医美或者光伏板块，当前都处在情绪比较热的阶段，市场有可能随时发生调整。将创成长指数与银行指数的估值进行对比，可以发现创成长对银行指数的估值比率已经达到2021年来的高点(图一）。当前位置该比值为12.5，超过2021年1月下旬的高点12。银行股是价值股的典型代表。这也意味着成长对价值的估值达到了较高水平。全球来看，价值股在过去15年跑输成长股。成长股的盈利增速总是高于价值股，问题是高多少和投资人支付的价格是多少。根据有关机构对全球2000只股票的加权平均统计，成长股从1990年到2021年6月30日，每年比价值股的盈利增速高2.6个百分点。所以，盈利增速并没有差太多。成长股的估值贵主要是投资人对他们的盈利预期过高造成的。而根据杰里米·西格尔在《投资者的未来》中所指出的：投资收益来自预期差，即企业实际业绩增速与预期业绩增速之差。对于成长股而言，因为预期高，所以估值很高，但是实际上经常会有令投资人失望的股票。历史上看，有成长股股价下跌而引发市场危机的例子，最典型的就是2000年互联网泡沫破裂。

图一：创成长指数与银行指数静态市盈率比值

数据来源：WIND

周二A股强劲反弹，港股微跌。欧美股市继续大幅反弹。经过周二和周三两天的反弹，美股收回周一的全部跌幅。经济复苏股引领股市上涨。10年期国债收益率上涨8个基点达到1.29%，美元指数从93高位回落，原油价格回升到70美金每桶以上。

Growth stocks’ valuation to value stocks reached a new high. The best performing index in A-share is Chinext Momentum Growth Index, which rose 31.6% year-to-date. The top-ten weighting stocks in terms of market cap comprise 73.6% of the index. The biggest weighting stock is Contemporary Amperex Technology, which takes 17.3% of the index weighting. East Money Information is the cheapest stock among the top 10 at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) of 60x while Imerk Technology is the most expensive at TTW PE of 394x. Chinext Momentum Growth index is valued at TTW PE of 84x, which put it at 86.4% percentile since it was set up in Jan. 2019. This compared with 102.7x and 95x in July 2020 and Feb. 2021, the previous two highs for the index. The index then corrected close to 20% and 30% respectively from these two highs. Moreover, the ratio of Chinext Momentum Growth Index TTW PE to that of bank sector also reached a new high in 2021. The ratio was 12.5x, higher than 12x at the end of Jan. this year but lower than 14x in July 2020. According to a statistic on 2000 global stocks the weighted average earnings growth rate of growth stocks is 2.6 percentage point higher than that of value stocks on annualized basis from 1990 to June 30th 2021. In a word the growth stocks only grow a little faster than value stocks. The high valuation of growth stocks is due to the high expectation of investors. Jeremy Siegel pointed out in his famous book “The future for investors” that investment return is determined by the gap between expectation and actual earnings growth.For growth stocks it frequently turns out that the actual earnings growth is lower than expected. Hence, when growth stocks correct the impact to the market is usually quite big. A case in point is the internet bubble burst in 2000.

A-share rose and HK market fellslightly. The US and European market continued to rebound strongly and most of them recouped the losses on Monday after the rally on Tuesday and Wednesday.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

港股疲弱。从2021年4月20日，即印度疫情爆发的时间点到7月20日，在全球16个主要国家和地区的指数中，恒生指数按涨幅排名倒数第二，在该区间（下同）下降6.6%，仅好于日本的下跌7.7%。在恒生12个综合行业中，仅有两个行业上涨，分别是医药生物和公用事业，分别上涨10%和1%。在下跌的10个行业中，7个行业的跌幅在5%以上。跌幅居前的行业是科技、地产建筑和综合，分别下跌12%、10.9%和9.4%。港股从去年4季度到1季度表现较好，但是春节之后受A股下跌带动以及港府征收印花税的影响，表现弱势。4月下旬印度疫情爆发后，港股一路下行，7月份以来甚至连续8天下跌。反观印度，在此期间上涨8.8%，领涨全球16个主要国家和地区。港股如此疲弱的一个原因是美元指数走强。美元指数在2021年5月25日达到低点89.6685之后开始一路上行，至7月20日上涨至92.9764，近2个月时间上涨3.69%。我们在《港股明年大概率跑赢A股》中指出，港股跑赢A股通常是在美元贬值的时候，这种情况下，资金会从美国市场流入新兴市场，而港股估值较低，通常最先受益。而当美元指数走强时，情况就恰恰相反。资金最先流出港股，回到美国本土市场。第二个原因是新冠疫情阻碍了经济复苏。港股价值股占比较高，很多是受益于经济复苏的。但是新冠疫情对这些板块构成了较大冲击，无论是博彩还是航空，都远远没有恢复到2019年同期的水平，也低于市场预期的水平。这些困境中的公司似乎永远也走不出困境，这也对港股造成了很大的压力。再次，港股科技股去年表现全球领先，涨幅媲美纳斯达克和A股的创业板。但今年以来，因为抱团股的瓦解叠加中国政府对互联网平台企业的整治，该板块一蹶不振，领跌港股主要指数。最后，因为中国政府从5月份以来打压大宗商品价格，相关的原材料板块也走势低迷。港股走强一方面需要市场跌出价值，我们认为当前估值已经具有吸引力。另一方面也需要外部的催化剂，如美元走弱或者我国经济复苏超预期。当然中美关系改善也是一个重要催化剂。

周二A股和港股均探底回升。A股微跌，港股跌幅近1个百分点，符合我们的判断。美股和欧洲股市均从低点反弹，大宗商品价格回升。

The HK market has been weak since April. From April 20th to July 20th (the same below) Hang SengIndex fell 6.3%, ranked as the 15th among the 16 major global indexes. Nikkei Index of Japan fell 7.7%, the worst performer out of 16 major indexes. Only 2 sectors,ie. healthcare and utilities sector, rose out of 12 Hang Seng sectors. Among the 10 falling sectors 7 fell more than 5%. Tech, property and conglomerate fell the most at 12%, 10.9% and 9.4% respectively. In comparison Sensex30 of India rose 8.8%, the best performer among the 16 major indexes despite that Delta variant caused COVID-19 pandemic to resurge in India in mid-April. So why HK market was so weak? The first reason is that US dollar has been appreciating since the end of May. In “The HK market would likely outperform A-share in 2021” we found that when US dollar depreciates capital would flow to emerging markets. HK usually benefits more than any other market due to its low valuation. Yet when the US dollar appreciates the capital would flow back to the US and HK is the first market that capital exits. From the end of May the US dollar index rose 3.7% and above 93 on July 20th for the first time in two months. The second reason is that the pandemic has hampered economic recovery. Stocks associated with economic recovery comprises a big component of the HK market. These companies’earnings were below expectation and hence their stock performance. The last but not the least is that Chinese government took measure to control inflation which put commodity prices under pressure. Raw material sector fell sharply. When would HK market perform again? The first is that the market falls to a level with deep value, which we believe it has done. The second is that it needs catalysts, such as better-than-expected economic recovery and US dollar depreciation. Any improvementin Sino-US relationship could drive the market up.

Both A-share and HK market bottomed out on Tuesday. The US and European market also rebounded from a big sell-off on Tuesday.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

美国股债大跌，美元上涨。周一美国10年期国债收益率下跌到1.2%以下，为5个月以来的新低。如果债券市场对经济的预期是对的，那说明美国经济很可能要下行。另一方面，美联储要削减债券购买计划。在此情况下，利率应该上行。债券诡异的下行是因为什么呢？有一部分分析师认为是交易性因素导致的。今年美股表现很好，机构投资者在股市赚钱之后回头又买入债券，压低了债券的利率。归根结底是流动性过于充裕造成的。而美元指数在5月25日达到89.6565低点，之后一路反弹上冲到92.8285，周一略有回落。因OPEC+达成石油增产协议，叠加新冠疫情加剧可能会减少对石油的需求，石油价格周一大跌。美债、美股和石油下跌结合美元上涨，给人感觉是避险情绪在发生作用。我们认为主要是市场对Delta病毒的担忧。但根据美国知名对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼，Delta病毒将会促使更多的人去接种新冠疫苗，其实对疫情控制是有利的。比尔·阿克曼认为美国国债收益率最终还是会上升，并认为美国经济会在秋季有强劲表现。但另一方面，美国经济同比增速在今年2季度达到高点之后，3、4季度将会下行。如同中国经济在1季度同比增速达到高点之后，2季度开始下行一样。但这并不代表经济失去了增长的动力。环比来看，中国2季度的经济增速是比1季度要高的。美国的情况也应如此，特别是美国股市上涨幅度巨大，居民财富增值很多。同时，巨额财政刺激下，老百姓手头也很宽裕，且有可能是史上最宽裕的时期。这意味着美国经济3季度的环比增长将会比较强劲。未来有可能是国债收益率上升和美股上涨叠加美元指数回升。市场还担心美联储和财政部手里没有多少弹药可用，美国经济可能会从此一蹶不振。美联储和财政部联手实施的现代货币政策理论其实意味着量化宽松没有上限，但是对经济的后果就是增大债务量，将问题发生的时间后移。

周一A股微跌，港股大跌。今年以来，因中国政府收紧流动性，A股和港股涨幅落后于全球股市。受中美关系影响，港股7月份以来接连下跌。另一方面，我国货币政策已有所松动，对股市提供支撑。而上半年缺位的财政政策下半年也将会发力，因此经济下行将是可控的、温和的。因此，我们认为A股和港股跟跌美股的可能性较小。

The US is not in another crisis. On Monday the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.206%, the lowest from Feb. 2021. The US stocks fell sharply amid the concern of rising new cases caused by Delta variant. In the meantime the US dollar rose to a new high from the end of May. As the Federal Reserve is preparing to taper the bond yield should rise rather than fall. Some analysts believed that falling treasury yield was due to that the institutional investors took profits from stock markets and put the money into bond market,i.e., the bond prices were driven up by abundant liquidity. But the combination of falling treasury yield, stocks prices tumble along with rising US dollar usually means a big risk is looming. This risk is highly transmissible Delta variant. But according to a famous hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, the Delta variant would push more American to get vaccinated. This is actually good for the economy. Moreover, with huge cash in hands the American consumers would spend and boost economy. He believed that the US economy would be robust in the fall. Contrary to his optimism, many analysts believe that the US economy is peaking in 2Q2021. The bond market is reflecting that economy would slow down gradually. It is true that on year-on-year basis the US economy would peak out in 2Q2021 due to the low base in 2020. But from quarter-on-quarter perspective the US economy would grow strongly for the 3rd quarter. The American consumers have enjoyed the big increase of fortune as the stock market rallied year-to-date. Moreover, they also have big cash on hands issued by government as unemployment compensation.

A-share fell slightly while HK stocks fell sharply. If the US market corrects would A-share and HK stocks follow suit? We believe the possibility is nothigh. Both A-share and HK stocks lagged behind other major stock markets year-to-date. Moreover, HK markets recently corrected a lot due to the deteriorating Sino-US relationship. Both have much lower valuation than global peers. As China controls COVID-19 pandemic better than any other country in the world, A-share and HK stocks should be considered as safe heaven.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

Delta病毒对股市是利空吗？截止上周五美国新冠新增病例较前一周7天平均上涨了67%达到26448例，死亡病例上涨26%达到273例，美股大跌。美国前FDA主任认为美国有可能低估Delta病毒造成的传染情况，原因是已打过新冠疫苗的人不会再去做测试，而没打疫苗的人都把COVID-19看成是一个普通感冒，更不会去做测试。根据美国疾控预防中心数据，美国48%的人口已经完全免疫，56%的人口至少接种了一剂疫苗。65岁以上人群中79%已经完全免疫，89%接受了一剂新冠疫苗。但根据华盛顿邮报和ABC新闻联合进行的抽样调查显示：29%的美国人认为他们不太可能接种疫苗，其中20%认为他们绝对不会接种疫苗。所以，美国距离80%的群体免疫还有很长的一段路要走。这对美国经济和股市意味着什么？从巴西和印度的情况看，有可能是坏消息变成了好消息。这两个国家因为遭受Delta病毒侵袭，股市都大幅回落之后又大幅上涨。从这两国经济情况看，小公司和穷人受疫情冲击较大，而大公司反而借此机会降低成本和提升市场份额。能够上市的企业一般都是规模较大的企业。另一方面，疫情的再次爆发促使中央银行继续维持宽松的货币政策。印度储备银行，即印度的中央银行，将基准利率保持在4%的历史低位，以促进借款和建筑活动。回到美国，因为Delta病毒导致的新增病例上升，洛杉矶市加强了防控举措，即在室内需要戴口罩。根据美国FDA前主任，美国大多数地方都不会重新加强防控，因为不会有人支持这种举措。对疫情有顾虑的人都打疫苗了，而没有打疫苗的人都是对疫情不在乎的人。所以，美国未来疫情很有可能会加剧。参照巴西和印度的经验，疫情对经济复苏不利，但是会拖延美联储退出的步伐。如果疫情一而再、再而三，美联储何时能退出宽松的货币政策就是未知数了。也许像日本一样再也退不出来。

A股和港股小幅上涨。港股表现好于A股，主因应是超跌反弹。A股内部估值差异达到极限，热门板块接连调整，市场风格面临切换。外资对中国政府整治互联网平台公司有较大担忧，认为这会压低这些公司的估值。

Is Delta variant a negative to stock markets?  The seven-day average of new daily infections standing at 26,448, up 67% from a week ago according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. The weekly average of new daily deaths is up 26% from a week ago, to 273. As of Friday, 48.3% of the country’s population was fully vaccinated and nearly 56% had received at least one dose,according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention （CDC）. More than 79% of people age 65 and up are fully vaccinated and nearly 89% have had at least one dose, according to the CDC. But accordingto a survey by the Washington Post and ABC news, 29% of respondents said thatthey were not likely to get vaccinated. Among it 20% said they would not be vaccinated definitely. Hence, it is still a long way for the US to become herd immunity as it requires 80% of population to be vaccinated. However,Delta variant is not necessarily bad news for stock markets from what happened in Indian and Brazil. Both Indian and Brazil suffered sharp fall of stock markets due to the surging COVID-19 cases caused by Delta variant. Yet both countries’ stock market registered strong bounce back after COVID-19 cases peaking out. On one hand the pandemic hit the poor and the small businesses harder than those bigger ones, which took the opportunities to cut costs and take more market share; on the other hand the central banks would have to maintain the easing policy to boost economy. Take India as an example, the India Reserve Bank kept benchmark interest rate at historical low 4% to help lending and construction activities. So if Delta variant spread out in the US the Federal Reserve might have to maintain its QE policy for a longer time than expected.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last week. HK market rose strongly bouncing back from low levels. Both A-share and HK market saw the divergence of valuation among sectors came to an extreme, meaning that the market style might change soon. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。