一个笑话。巴菲特曾经在互联网泡沫破灭之前进行过一次公开演讲，他讲了一个笑话。一个石油勘探者死后进了天堂，圣彼得对他说：“你符合所有的条件，但这里人以群分，石油勘探者的居住区已经满了，我没有地方提供给你。”商人问：“您不介意我说五个字吧”。“可以。”于是商人把手拢在嘴边，大声说：“地狱里有油！”所有的石油勘探者都直往下冲，地方被腾空了。圣彼得说好吧，现在这块地方全都是你的了。商人停了一会儿，说：“哦，不了，我还是跟着他们去地狱吧，毕竟空穴不来风。”这个笑话是巴菲特讽刺在股市里随波逐流的投资群体。它永不过时，因为它深刻地揭示了人性。首先，股市里很多投资人并不是运用自己的判断力，或者缺乏判断力，而买入或者卖出股票。即所谓追涨杀跌。其次，牛市或者熊市都会比预期的时间长，因为扭转集体的情绪需要很长的时间。最后，对于真正的价值投资者，在某些时候坚持自己的投资理念通常会遭遇较大的挑战。巴菲特认为自己在互联网泡沫中的投资成绩是不及格的，但是随着互联网泡沫破裂，他的投资业绩再次证明股神就是股神。爱德文·利弗莫尔在《股票大作手回忆录》一书的最后写道：没有人能够持续不断的超越市场。不管一位交易员如何的富有经验，亏钱的可能性总是存在，因为投机不可能100%的安全。任何自然或人为的灾难都不如内幕信息更容易摧毁一个交易员。无论在华尔街还是其他任何地方取得成功都没有容易走的柏油马路。所以，无论投资还是投机，都要对市场保持谦卑。在市场面前，任何人都是渺小的。

 周二A股和港股均下跌，美股微涨。港股周二是期指结算日，市场一般在期指结算日都波动较大。恒生12个综合行业中只有工业上涨，11个行业下跌，能源行业领跌，因油价下跌。A股申万28个行业中只有电气设备、纺织服装和化工上涨，25个行业下跌，国防军工、通信和家用电器领跌。美国知名分析师和投资人担心美联储可能落后于通胀而不得不在未来采取补救措施，而这可能导致经济衰退。但当前的5年和10年期损益平衡通胀率都已经拐头向下，意味着市场并不认为通胀是长期可持续的。

A joke. Warren Buffett told a joke at a speech before the internet bubble burst. The joke goes like this: An oil explorer went to the heaven after he passed away. St. Peter told him that there was no room for him because so many oil explorer were in heaven. He asked to speak five words and then said:there is oil in hell. All of the oil explorers went to the oil at once. OK. Sothis place is all for you, said St. Peter. Oh, no, I’d better go to the hell aswell. This joke is for the stock market and it reveals human nature deeply. Firstly, a lot of investors can’t judge whether the stocks are a buy or sell on their own. They make their decisions purely on the stock price’s up and downs. Secondly, the bull or the bear market can last much longer than expected as it would be hard to turn the hot market to cool and vice versa. Finally, value investors would be faced with big challenges to stick to their investment principles. Buffett considered his investment return unqualified as a professional investor. Yet he then achieved good return after the internet bubble burst and proved what he did in internet bubble was right. Edwin Lefevre wrote at the end of his famous book “Reminiscences of A Stock Operator” that no man can consistently and continuously beat the stock market. No matter how experienced a trader is the possibility of his making losing plays is always present because speculation cannot be made 100% safe. Inside tips will break a man more quickly than famine or what might be called normal accidents. There is no asphalt boulevard to success in Wall Street or anywhere else. This is so true. So be humble in the market all the time.

Both A-share and HK stocks fell while the US stocks rose slightly. June 29thwas the future settlement day for HK market. Market is usually down on these days. Energy sector fell the most in both A-share and HK market as oil prices went down. There is a lot of argument as to whether inflation is transitory or persistent. But the breakeven treasury yields have turned their corners, signaling that rates market does not expect inflation to last for a long time.  

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

投机盛行意味着什么？在牛市的后期，投机盛行，IPO市场是一个鲜明的体现。根据彭博数据，今年上半年，全球IPO市场共募集金额3500亿美金，超过去年下半年的2820亿美金，创出历史新高。一些热门概念股涨幅惊人，如新能源概念股三峡能源两周前上市，只用了10个交易日股价上涨就超过200%。快手2021年2月份上市以来虽然股价从最高点下跌50%，但据其发行价仍有50%的上涨空间。当然，也有一些表现较弱的股票。如百度也是在2021年2月份上市，但当前股价较发行价已经跌了40%。IPO市场的火爆反应的是股票市场的热度。在牛市中后期，投资人的情绪亢奋，一些传统的估值方法已经无法衡量热门股票。投资人会找出各种理由支撑股价的上涨。这与互联网泡沫时期对互联网企业的估值如出一辙。这是要小心的时候，而不是要勇敢的时候。特别是当有投资人声称投资不需要看估值的时候，就更要小心了。通常这种言论发出的时候，热门股票见顶也不会远。巴菲特在2000年互联网泡沫破灭之前对投资者说：归根结底，财富只能由企业创造出来，这是唯一的渠道。投资者作为一个整体想要变得富有，只有企业才能让他们达到目的。巴菲特认为许多互联网公司的股票估值实在是太荒唐可笑了。当大量的参与者一起投入一个总数持续增加的游戏，就会创造出一种表面上的真实。这样的情况也可能会持续相当长的时间，但不可能永远持续下去。投机不可能持续，价值投资才可以。

周一A股和港股微跌，美股涨跌不一。疫情对经济复苏股造成压力，航空股和博彩股均下跌。因猪粮价比跌破1:5的预警现，国家将启动生猪收储，养殖股大涨。但猪价并不会因此而止跌，其真正止跌需产能充分去化，而这不仅仅是散户的退出，个别大型养殖场倒闭可能才是猪价止跌的信号。对于吉利汽车撤回A股科创板上市申请，美银证券认为主要原因是吉利汽车决定不收购富豪汽车及其新能源车品牌Zeekr将可能有自身融资计划。美股纳斯达克和标普500再创新高，道指在交通和能源股带动下下跌。美国国债收益率全线下跌，10年期国债收益率再次回落到1.48%，利好科技股。

What does it imply when speculation prevails? Speculation prevails when the bull market goes into the late part. According to Bloomberg, in 1H2021 there was a total of US$ 350 billion raised via IPO worldwide, surpassing the record US$282 billion in 2H2020. Some stocks performed quite well after IPO such as Three Gorges Energy, which rose 200% in just 10 trading days after it was listed two weeks ago. Some performed poorly such as Baidu, whose stock price fell 40% from its IPO price when it was listed in Feb.2021. The booming IPO market reflects investors’ sentiment, which is usually quite hot during the late part of a bull market. The traditional valuation methodology does not work in the hot market. Investors would find a lot of excuses to explain the high valuation of a hot sector or stock. It is actually a signal that danger is looming. Warren Buffett told investors that fortune can only be created by listed companies and investors can become rich only via investing in those companies that can create value. But one should look at valuation when he or she invests in the stock market. In the short run the stock market is a voting machine. In the long run it is a weighting machine. The game that all of the people chase a small number of stocks can last for some time but not for all the time. In summary speculation can not prevail forever but value investment can.

Both A-share and HK stocks fell slightly while the US stocks were mixed on Monday. Due to the spread of Delta variant COVID-19 worldwide gaming and airline stocks fell. China government announced that it would begin to purchase swine as reserve as the ratio of corn-to-pork price fell below the warning line. We judge that pork prices would only rebound when some big swine farm goes bankruptcy. Nasdaq and SP 500 reached another record high while DOW fell dragged down by energy and transportation stocks.  The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.48% once again and boosted tech stocks. Facebook won the antitrust cases that were brought up by the Federal Trade Commission. Stock rose 4% on Monday. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

大金融和地产板块。金融中的保险、银行和券商自新冠疫情发生以来分别上涨0.3%、17%和26%，而房地产下跌6%。而涨幅居前的旅游综合、电源设备和医疗服务分别上涨219%、179%和169%，差距甚大。股价上涨有上涨的原因，下跌也有下跌的原因。作为传统行业，大金融和地产板块被认为发展前景与新兴行业相比没有吸引力。确实，与新能源车的每年30%的增速相比，无论是大金融和地产板块都无法实现如此高的业绩增速。但估值水平其实也反应了市场的预期。保险、银行和券商板块的静态市盈率都处在历史较低水平，分别为1.6、0.72和1.8倍，分别位于历史上4.3%、8%和48%的分位。房地产静态市净率0.96倍，位于过去20年来0.05%的分位，基本上就是历史最低值。所有的行业都曾经经历过市场最悲观的时刻以及最乐观的时刻。白酒板块也一样。在2013年板块估值最低时曾达到2.6倍，当前为11.6倍，处在历史96.2%的分位。悲观和乐观都反应在股价里面了。二者的区别是如果前者业绩有一点超预期，股价就会大幅上涨；而后者业绩有点低于预期，股价就会大幅下跌。前者较戴维斯双击，后者较戴维斯双杀。白酒也曾在塑化剂事件及限制公款消费后业绩持续低迷。但2014年随着业绩好转，股价迎来连续几年的上涨。所以，行业都存在低迷期，大金融和地产会否一直低迷下去呢？在当前较低的估值水平下，值得跟踪。

上周全球股市多数上涨。上周全球16个主要国家和地区指数中14个上涨，资源国巴西和澳大利亚下跌。美股涨幅居前，市场从对美联储缩减债券购买规模的恐慌中缓解。受环球股市上涨影响，且中国人民银行释放流动性，A股和港股均上涨，深成指涨幅仅次于道琼斯工业指数，位居16个主要指数涨幅第二名。行业方面，A股钢铁、电气设备和电子涨幅居前；港股原材料、医疗保健和能源涨幅居前。上周北上资金净流入209.7亿人民币，为一个月以来周度资金净流入最大；南下资金净流入50.5亿人民币，结束了连续两周的净流出。上周五发布的5月份美国消费指数物价指数同比上涨3.4%，与市场预期一致，为1992年以来最大幅度上涨。

About the financial sector and property sector. Banking, brokerage and insurance sector along with property sector performed poorly in A-share and HK markets. Take the example of A-share,banking, brokerage and insurance sector rose 26%, 17% and 0.3% respectively from the low in March 2020 to last Friday. Property sector fell 6% during the same period. This compared with leisure service, power supply equipment and medi-care sector that rose 219%, 179% and 169% respectively. Market is pessimistic about the growth prospects of financial and property sector. Yet the valuation has fully reflected this pessimism. The bank, brokerage and insurance sector is valued at 0.72, 1.6 and 1.8x trailing-twelve-month price-to-book (TTW PB). This put them at the percentile of 8%, 48% and 4.3% in history respectively. Property sector is valued at 0.96x TTW PB, which put it at the percentile of 0.05% over the last 20 years. Every sector has ever experienced low times. The liquor sector was valued at 2.6x TTW PB when it suffered plasticizer affair and the sales drop from restrictions on consumption using public funds in 2013. From 2014 the liquor sector’s earnings growth rate improved gradually and the sector’s stock prices rose from then till now. It is valued at 11.6x TTW PB currently and at 96% percentile in history. Going forward the key is whether liquor sector would see its earnings grow at a high speed. If not, its valuation would come down sharply. As for financial and property sector, if their earnings can surprise to the upside, their valuation would increase along with earnings growth. Pay attention to these sectors’ development from now on.

Major indexes rose globally.14 out of 16 global major indexes rose last week with Brazil and Australia stock index falling. The panic from the Federal Reserve to take back liquidity has relieved to some extent. Both A-share and HK market rose last week as the People’s Bank of China released liquidity. Last week the north-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB21 billion, the largest weekly net inflow in a month. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK $ 5.1 billion, concluding two weeks net outflow in a row. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

华尔街没有暑假。约翰·加尔布雷斯在《1929年大崩盘》中描述了1929年前股市过度繁荣的种种表现，从为在股市低迷时为投机者提供杠杆资金的国民城市银行董事局主席查尔斯·E·米切尔，到对钢铁股不懂装懂的家庭妇女，从刊登在《妇女家庭报》上的文章《大家都能成为富人》，到屡次看空、屡次失败的《纽约时报》，刻画了一幅投机氛围浓厚的股市众生相。让人印象深刻的还有美国参议院委员会诘问高盛公司的创始人之一萨克斯关于高盛在牛市期间创建的高盛贸易公司。该公司从事投资信托业务，即为投资人提供杠杆资金参与股市。其IPO价格为104美元，牛市崩盘几年后该公司股价跌到了1.75 美元。华尔街没有暑假，但到了1929年秋天就迎来了史上最严重的股市暴跌和经济萧条。虽然美国经历过1929年股市大崩盘，但并不能阻止1987年黑色星期一和2008年全球金融危机的发生。为什么呢？因为人性是相通的，无论是生活在20世纪20年代还是80年代，抑或是21世纪。人类不曾从历史中吸取任何教训，因为我们没办法杜绝人性。近期，某热门餐饮股股价被腰斩再腰斩，创始人坦诚不能够保证公司未来业绩的持续增长。该公司去年疫情刚结束就大干快上，大举提升开店步伐。一年时间过去，发现过于密集开店造成翻台率下跌、新开门店爬坡期过长，而为了提高利润而对菜品加价、降低菜品质量等举措加剧了顾客的流失率。该公司在股价巅峰时对应的市净率接近40倍，而现在16倍的市净率其实也不低。不过回望山巅，还是觉得40倍的市净率真是不可思议。这种感觉就像在1929年股市崩盘之后的几年，持有高盛贸易公司股份的投资人（如果还持有的话），怎么也无法想象这个公司股价曾经高达100多美金。是的，有的时候在股市赚不到钱就是想象力不够。

周四A股和港股均小幅上涨，美股再创新高。央行三个月以来首次加大逆回购资金量，以缓解季末资金紧张局面。A股成交量连续5天超过万亿人民币。美国总统拜登与两党达成基建刺激计划。虽然刺激规模为1万亿美金，但是加上额外支出有可能达到2万亿美金。美股标普500和纳斯达克指数创出历史新高。

There is no summer break in Wall Street. John Galbraith, the famous economist, presented a picture of a booming stock market before the big crash in 1929 in “The Great Crash 1929”. He depicted how the big shot and the common people behaved as well as those media that expected either a bull or a bear market. One part is about Goldman Sachs Trading Company, which was listed during the bull time before the big crash with IPO price at US$ 104 per share. Several years after the big crash, the stock was trading at US$1.75. There was no summer break in Wall Street in 1929. Yet the stock market soon saw the fiercest crash in history and the economy entered the most severe depression that ever happened. Although the US stock market experienced the big crash in 1929, it suffered the Black Monday in 1987 and the Great Recession in 2008. The reason behind is that human nature has never changed whether it was in the 1920’s, 1980’s or the 21st century. Recently a famous catering stock listed in HK saw its stock price fall by more than 70% over the last couple of months. The stock price boomed last year due to its big expansion plan all of China. But it turned out that this strategy was wrong as more new stores caused table turnover rate to drop and it took longer time for new stores to become profitable. Moreover, it raised products’ prices and lowered their quality, resulting in the customer loss. The company was valued at price-to-book (PB) ratio of 40x when its stock was at peak levels. Now it was valued at 16x PB, which is still pretty high.The founder of the company recently admitted that he did not expect a sustainable earnings growth in the near future. That’s quite true. A company can grow its earnings at a high speed for some time but not all the time.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose slightly while the US stocks rallied. The People’s Bank of China released liquidity via national debt reverse repurchasing to deal with  the liquidity demand at the end of June. President Biden stroke the infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of senators. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

如何选择价值股？有一种观点认为在价值股里选股比在成长股里选股更难，因为价值股覆盖了好和坏的公司。这种观点印证了我们在6月23日发表在枫瑞视点微信公众号里的文章乌鸡如何变凤凰--论价值陷阱中所指出的，很多价值股其实是价值陷阱，有各种各样的问题使所谓价值股的估值并不像表面看上去那么便宜。说到底，价值陷阱是毁灭价值的。要找到创造价值的股票，最终还是要看公司盈利增长的速度和发展前景。因此，价值股选股有一点跟成长股选股是一样的，就是看公司未来成长性。但成长股通常估值较高，而价值股在危机或者企业出问题的时候估值都较低，反应投资人对其未来发展的低预期。此时如果投资者能够买入并持有，就可以在未来乘着公司基本面改善的东风而获得较好收益。但是，价值股通常都不会一步到达估值底部。当年，巴菲特买入华盛顿邮报，就用了三年的时间，股价在此期间下降了50%。所以，价值投资者经常买在半山腰而不是绝对的底部，是因为当股价看似低估之后其实还有很大下跌空间。但当最后一个看空的人卖出股票后，股价就开始上涨了。所以，价值股里面选股很重要，买入时机也很重要。当然，如果你的持有期限也像巴菲特一样是永远，则买入时机就不用太计较了。有的投资人认为在成长股选股很容易，但是就如同我们在增长率陷阱中所指出的，投资者对成长股的高预期正式成长股收益落后于价值股的主要原因。就如同牛市里投资人往往亏钱一样，成长股也会诱惑投资人买入，但因其估值太高而导致最后的收益不如人意。所以，挖掘价值股还是比较安全的投资策略。找一下那些还躺在角落里的价值股，说不定就是未来的白酒股。

周二A股和港股均上涨，美股涨跌不一。第五次药品集采降价幅度在56%，与以往集采降价幅度基本一致。但受情绪影响，A股和港股医药板块均小幅下跌。A股白酒股跌幅领先，山西汾酒下跌超8%。白酒股经过连续几年的上涨，股价泡沫化程度较高，需要回归到与基本面相匹配的水平。美股纳斯达克指数再创出历史新高，道指和标普500小幅回落。市场认为美联储在平衡通胀过高和经济过热之间走钢丝绳。如果未来通胀和国债收益率走高，则市场将会面临调整的压力。

How to pick value stocks? Some investors think that it is more challenging to pick value stocks than growth stocks. The reason is that there are both good and bad companies in value stocks. This coincides with our view in “How the black chicken turns into phoenix” published in our official wechat—Maple Insights, in which we illustrate four types of value traps that destroy value. To find those companies that can create value the key is whether these companies can grow their earnings strongly in the future. Therefore, to find growth is one thing in common between value stocks and growth stocks. However, growth stocks usually enjoy high valuation. Yet value stocks would have much lower valuation when they encounter difficulties in growing earnings. For value investors they usually buy value stocks when the stocks become low-valued. But low-valued stocks still have a lot room to fall further. Take the example that Buffett invested in The Washington Post.He bought the stock for three years in a row and during the period the stock prices fell 50% maximum. So it is hard to buy a stock at the lowest point of stock price. But if your holding period is as long as forever like that of Buffett the timing to buy a stock would not have a significant impact on your investment return.  To pick growth stocks the one challenge is that their valuation is rather expensive.This would negatively affect investment return. So investing in a value stock would bear smaller risk than buying a growth stock.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose while the US stocks were mixed. The fifth national centralized purchasing of medicine concluded with the average medicine prices down by 56%, which is inline with the previous national centralized purchasing. Medicine sector in both A-share and HK market fell due to sentiment. Liquor stocks in A-share fell sharply. This sector has performed well over the last couple of years. Some stocks are in bubbles and need to fall to be in line with fundamentals. Nasdaq rose while SP500 and DOW fell slightly. Market is concerned that treasury yield would go up again.  

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

价值陷阱。我们在2021年4月23日的枫瑞视点中发表了《增长率陷阱》，讨论了投资者预期收益过高之后，股票回报不及预期的增长率陷阱。与增长率陷阱相对应的是价值陷阱。价值陷阱是股票表面看上去很便宜，有投资价值，但由于基本面持续恶化，估值越来越贵。价值陷阱通常被分成四大类。第一类是被技术进步淘汰的。这类公司的市场空间常常因为技术更迭而完全消失，因此他们的低估值其实是反应未来暗淡的发展前景。高科技行业不仅是增长率陷阱的高发行业，也是价值陷阱的高发行业。BP机、录影机等电子产品都被新技术推动的产品所取代了。彼特·林奇承认尽管他对高科技兴趣不大，但也经常被诱惑，结果就是“最终我毫不惊讶的发现，我手中的科技股是最持续的输家”。第二类是赢家通吃行业里的小公司。互联网领域是赢家通吃的典范。脸书、谷歌、亚马逊在社交平台、搜索和电商中的市占率均超过70%，就是互联网赢家通吃的典型写照。由于这些大公司的存在这，业内的小股票即使再便宜也可能是价值陷阱。第三类是重资产的夕阳产业。这些行业因为需求没有了，重资产对其利润的拖累越发明显，因此，估值便宜其实是反应行业需求不再。第四类是景气顶点的周期股。周期股在景气顶点，也是其市盈率估值最低的时候，看似便宜，但因为此时的利润增速是不可持续的，所以要卖出而不是买入。价值投资者何时能够逃出价值陷阱呢？首先，就是这些处于价值陷阱的公司基本面好转。其次，创造出新的价值，比如上世纪90年代的苹果，在乔布斯的带领下开启了创新浪潮。年初以来，A股曾经无人问津的价值陷阱股票纷纷表现，包括周期股、银行股等。近期，石油板块的表现更是让投资人体会了不满仓中石油的后果。而这些价值陷阱纷纷变成白马股主要是因为基本面发生了好转。

周二A股上涨，港股继续下跌，而美股上升。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会作证时表示大部分价格上涨是由于疫情造成的供应短缺和经济重启所引起的需求扩张，二者的错配所引起的。但他也承认价格上涨的水平和持续的时间可能会比美联储预期的时间长。纳斯达克指数创出历史新高，标普500离最高点咫尺之遥。港股连续第二天下跌，与经济复苏相关的股票领跌，主要是中国因广东疫情扩散而采取进一步的隔离措施造成。A股医药生物涨幅领先，因广东疫情持续扩散。石油板块上涨，油价创出2019年4月以来的新高，而白马龙头股持续下跌。

Value trap. We published “The growth trap” in our official wechat “Maple Insight” on April 23rd,2021. Value trap is like another side of growth trap. In value trap, the stocks seem very cheap. However, as the company’s fundamentals continue to deteriorate, valuation would become more and more expensive. There are four types of stocks falling into value trap. The first is those that become outdated due to the improvement and advancement of technology. High-tech companies usually fall into this category. Peter Lynch, the renowned investor, admitted that he was attracted by high-tech companies from time to time. Yet it turned out these high-tech companies were always the laggard play in his portfolio.  The second is the smaller companies in a sector where the market leader would take all of the market share in the sector. This is especially true in internet.  For example,Google, Facebook and Amazon take more than 70% market share in search, social platform and e-commerce. In these sectors, small companies would find it challenging to grow up. The third is those stocks with high capex-to-sales ratio in a sunset industry. The demand for their products is dwindling. Yet high capex drags down their earnings growth.  The last one is cyclical stocks. They would enjoy a low price-to-earnings ratio when their products’ prices are at the peak levels. Yet, with their products’ prices coming down their valuation would become expensive. So for those cyclical stocks in the latter half of cycle, they are value trap. In A-share many stocks that used to be in value trap have performed well year-to-date. These include base metals, banks and oil stocks. The reason is that their fundamentals have improved with the economy recovery.

A-share rose, HK stocks fell and the US stocks rose.  The Federal Reserve ChairmanPowell said that a majority of the inflation was caused by the mismatch between supply shortage and reopening demand. He admitted that inflation might persist longer and higher than they expected. A-share rose with medicine stocks rising the most as the pandemic in Guangdong Province was spreading.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。