周四A股上涨而港股下跌。A股申万28个行业中16个上涨，12个下跌。计算机、电气设备和汽车领涨，而农林牧渔、采掘和房地产领跌。A股核心资产上涨，因美国国债收益率走低。北上资金抢筹，净流入68.1亿人民币。港股12个行业中，6个上涨，6个下跌，其中工业涨幅领先，而原材料和金融行业跌幅领先。

五月广义货币增速触底反弹。五月广义货币（M2）同比增速为8.3%，较4月份的8.1%上升0.2个百分点。考虑到过去10年广义货币同比增速最低都在8%以上，广义货币同比增速应已见底回升。但如果中国经济潜在增速持续下行，不排除广义货币同比增速创出低于8%的水平。狭义货币（M1）同比增速为6.1%，较4月份的6.2%下跌0.1个百分点。社会融资规模存量同比增速为11%。无论是狭义货币还是社融存量，从去年2季度到4季度都处在同比增速较高的水平。因此，未来狭义货币和社融存量增速同比仍将持续走低，除非央行再度放水。宽信用、紧货币的状况有可能会持续到年底。

美国五月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨5%。这是2008年8月以来最高的月度涨幅。核心消费者价格指数同比上涨3.7%，是1992年以来的最大月度涨幅。市场对通胀是暂时的还是持续的有很大分歧。高盛分析师认为通胀是暂时的，随着供应链修复，通胀将会在今年下半年同比增速下行。这也是市场当前共识。但德意志银行分析师则认为上世纪70年的高通涨可能卷土重来，当时的年平均通胀为7%。而通过加息的方法抑制通胀对债务率较高的新兴市场国家是灾难性的。因经济增长将不足以覆盖飞速上涨的融资成本。我们在这次也许不一样中指出，本次美联储收缩流动性将不会造成2013年那样对新兴市场的重大冲击，因通胀高企将导致国债实际收益率下降，有利于股市和新兴市场国家。五月CPI数据出来后，美国债名义和实际收益率均下降。

美科技股领涨三大股指。美两党接近达成缩小版基础设施计划，据称无需加税融资。

On Thursday A-share rose while HK stocks fell slightly.  Due to the falling US treasury yield, group-holding stocks rallied in A-share. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 6.81billion. 6 out of 12 sectors in HK market rose with industrial rising the most and financials falling the most.

Broad money supply in May was higher than expected. Broad money (M2) rose 8.3% year-on-year (yoy), 0.2 percentage point (ppt) higher thanin April. Narrow money (M1) rose 6.1% (yoy), 0.1 ppt lower than in April. As M2 grew at above 8% yoy growth rate over the last ten years, we believe that M2 growth rate should have bottomed up if China’s potential economic growth rate would not fall further from current levels. Aggregate social financing rose 11% yoy. Both M1 and aggregate money supply grew at high rates from 2Q-4Q2020 in order to save economy from the pandemic. Hence, both would see their yoy growth rate slow down till the year-end.

This time should be different. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inMay in the US came in at 5% yoy, the highest monthly yoy growth rate since August 2008. The core CPI, which excludes the energy and food prices, rose 3.7% yoy and was the highest since 1992.  Whether high CPI would be transitory or here to stay is different among investment banks. Goldman Sachs believed that with supply chain recovery CPI would edge lower in 2H2021. While Deutsche Bank worried that the high inflation in the 1970s would come back again when the CPI  grew atan average 7% per year. DB particularly picked out emerging markets as the main victims as the high interest rate pushed by high inflation would make debt a bigger burden for emerging markets. We have concluded that this time the US treasury real yield would go down due to the high inflation. This is actually good for stocks and emerging markets.

The US stocks rose. Tech stocks rallied. The two parties reached consensus on infrastructure plan without raising taxes. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周三A股上涨，港股微跌。A股申万28个行业中18个上涨，10个下跌。其中钢铁、化工和采掘涨幅居前，而休闲服务、商业贸易和非银金融跌幅居前。港股12个综合行业中9个上涨，其中能源、医疗保健和电讯行业涨幅居前，而金融、科技和非必需消费业下跌。国家统计局发布的五月份消费者价格指数同比上涨1.3%，低于预期；而生产者价格指数同比增速9%，为2008年8月以来最高增速，超出预期。消费者价格指数涨幅低于预期主要是生猪价格下跌幅度过大造成的，我们认为一轮猪周期还没有走完，猪价同比跌幅应至少延续到3季度末，拖了消费者价格指数同比涨幅持续低于预期。而生产者价格指数的上涨主要是因为上游周期股上涨造成的。下半年生产者价格指数很可能持续保持在高位，利好上游周期股。同时，名义GDP增速也将抬升。

美联储不可能完成的使命。美联储将在下周议息会议上讨论削减债券购买计划。这个讨论的过程将持续到7月份。目前，至少有5位美联储官员表达了需要削减债券购买的意向。市场预计美联储将会在9-11月份之间宣布削减债券购买计划，而实施等到12月或明年1月份。削减债券购买计划不意味着美联储不购买债券，美联储将会继续购买债券直到2022年，只不过购买的规模缩小了，当前每月购买1200亿美金债券。美联储将致力于避免产生2013年的债券缩减恐慌，即时任美联储主席伯南克暗示将进行债券削减后，美国国债收益率大幅上扬导致市场大幅调整。美联储认为当时之所以市场会如此反应是因为市场预期美联储削减债券购买之后就会加息，而这一次，美联储将会明确传达削减债券购买计划的经济条件和加息的经济条件是完全不同的，从而达到抑制国债收益率上涨的目的。但如果通胀持续上升，这个使命可能无法完成。

美股下跌。美国总统拜登与共和党人商讨的基建计划失败，受益于基建计划的工业股指数下跌1%。10年国债收益率跌到1.5%以下，为五月以来的首次，受此影响，金融股下跌。市场都在等待今晚发布的五月份的消费者价格指数数据，据此判断美联储何时收紧QE政策。

On Wednesday A-share rose while HK stocks fell slightly. Consumer Price Index rose 1.3% year-on-year (yoy)in May, lower than expected due to that swine prices dropped more than expected. Producer’s Price Index rose 9% yoy, the highest growth rate since August 2008 and mainly due to the high-flying commodity prices. Cyclical sectors rose the most and high-valued stocks fell in A-share. In HK energy sector rose the most while financials fell the most.

Fed’s mission impossible. The Fed is in the early stages of a campaign to ready markets for reducing its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases to stimulate the economy. While the discussion may take place, an announcement of a decision to actually taper would be several months later, perhaps in late summer or early fall. That announcement would then put the beginning of the asset reduction further out,perhaps by year-end or early next year. Since the Fed will taper its purchases,that is, reduce the amount it buys by some amount each month, that timeline would still see the Fed purchasing billions of dollars of assets well into 2022, though at an increasingly slower pace. Behind the glacial pace of reducing asset purchases is a deliberate attempt to avoid another so-called taper tantrum, the sharp spike in bond yields in 2013 that came after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted asset purchases could wind down. One view inside the Fed is that the taper tantrum occurred because it failed to adequately separate in the market’s mind the timelines for hiking interest rates and for reducing asset purchases. This time, the Fed is creating a long runway for tapering, making clear that rate increases only come after this process. It also has set a higher standard of economic improvement required for rate increases than it has for asset purchase reductions. But a persisting inflation would break Fed’s plan.

The US stocks fell.  Market is waiting for the US May CPI data to gauge when the Fed will begin to taper. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周二A股和港股均下跌。A股食品饮料板块下跌4.2%, 为跌幅最大的行业，其次是有色金属和化工；而国防军工和汽车行业领涨。近期，A股一些热门板块不断调整，对投资情绪有较大打击。港股12个综合行业3个上涨，9个下跌。其中地产建筑、金融和公用事业上涨，原材料和综合行业领跌。北上资金净流入3亿人民币，南下资金继续净流出,净流出金额为16.6亿港币。

靠信仰支撑的股价迟早会下跌。A股有些板块就是靠信仰来支撑的。之所以这么说是因为在估值高达几十倍、上百倍市盈率的时候还有人认为这是价值投资。这其实不是对价值投资的信仰，而是对投机的信仰。这些板块的调整也不是意料之外，而是情理之中。稍微有点常识的人都会知道，任何公司的盈利都不可能长期保持高增速，更不用说100%的利润增速了。如果能够这样，人类早就可以移民火星了。正是因为我们还在地球上，人类的认知还停留在常识层面，价值投资就是长期投资最好的方法。企业的估值水平要对应其盈利增速。而这个盈利增速应该是中长期的盈利增速，而不是一两年的盈利增速。2008年全球金融危机以来，因为宏观经济增长乏力，股市对成长的稀缺性给予了很高的估值溢价。当然，对于趋势投资者而言，这些都不是重点。重点是短期股价有没有很强的上涨动力，这个动力可以来自各个方面：政策面、资金面和企业的短期盈利增速。A股市场趋势投资者众多，大家对一些板块的认知很容易达成一致推动板块上涨。趋势的终止也往往是由多种因素推动的，业绩不达预期、实控人减持以及资金面收紧等。趋势一旦失去了动力，股价下跌也是很凌厉的。年初以来，我们看到各种热门股在短时间内被腰斩，就是因为趋势投资者迅速抛弃这类股票造成的。对投机的信仰当然可以有，不过，要提防的是股价上涨容易，下跌更容易。

美股科技股继续上涨。因美国疾控中心放松对61个国家的旅游限制，航空股上涨。美国4月份的空缺职位数达到930万，继3月之后再度创出2000年以来的新高。美经济复苏持续，关注下周美联储的议息会议。

On Tuesday bothA-share rose and HK stocks fell.  Spirits stocks in A-share dropped sharply andwas the worst-performing sector. In HK market raw material and conglomeratessector fell the most while property and financials rose the most. North-bound capitalsaw net outflow of RMB 300 million. South-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$ 1.66billion, the second-day net outflow in a row.

Those stocks supported by pure belief are doomed to fall. In stock markets there are some stocks and sectors whose prices are purely supported by the belief that they would go up. These stocks are doomed to fall sooner or later. It sounds absurd that buying a stock whose price-to-earnings ratio above 100x is based on the principles of value investment. Common sense tells us that a company can grow its earnings at 100% for a couple of years but not for a long time. If a company can grow earnings at 100% per annum for years, the world would change dramatically and human could even live in the Mars. From the 2009 global financial crises, the world economy grew at low rates for years. Investors hence provided high premium to growth stocks as growth becomes scarcity. Another reason is that there are a lot of trend-followers in the stock markets. They only chase those stocks with possible catalysts from policy, sector and fundamentals.The stock prices would rise very fast when investors reach a consensus. But they would fall quickly as well when the catalysts disappear or negative catalysts come up. Year-to-date a lot of hot stocks have witnessed their prices to behalved due to that their earnings are disappointed, policy changes or liquidity crunch. Speculation is a reasonable way to make money in the stock market. Yet it is worth reminding that speculation has its own risks. Value investment has proved to be more resilient.  Picking stocks from common sense is a good way to defend the market turbulence.

The US stocks were mixed.  Tech stocks continued to rise as 10-year treasury yield fell. The US job openings in April reached a new high from 2000.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周一A股上涨，港股下跌。A股和港股并未受到上周五美股上涨的影响，开盘下跌。A股因为本周有巨额解禁以及周末宣布的部分上市公司大股东减持的消息而承压，港股则因为广州疫情扩散的影响而下跌。北上和南下资金分别净流出39.7亿人民币和14.5亿港币。5月以美元计价的出口金额同比增速为27.9%，低于市场预期，概因广州和深圳疫情对港口处理货物的能力造成影响。疫情偶发不断，对经济的负面影响也持续存在，这在一定程度上也扰乱了经济自身的周期性规律。未来经济的好转需要疫情完全处于控制之下，而这需要疫苗接种率达到80%的水平，我国可能年底前才可能做到。

高通胀将挤破资产泡沫。通胀在股票市场已经到了让人谈虎色变的程度。但通胀并非一无是处。在经济复苏阶段，通胀上升其实反应旺盛的需求。一般而言，3%以下的通胀水平是温和的，可以接受的。就如同美国财政部长耶伦所说，过去10多年来，美联储一直在与通缩对抗，通胀的到来有利于美国经济。超过3%的通胀一般被视为恶性通货膨胀。恶性通货膨胀通常会扰乱正常的经济运行秩序，抑制消费，同时引发收入分配的不均衡。所以，各国政府都会打压恶性通货膨胀。美国4月消费者价格指数为4.2%，已经达到恶性通货膨胀的区间。4月个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）同比上涨3.58%，而核心PCE上涨3.06%，连续4个月超出市场预期，也超过了美联储设定的2%的通胀目标。本周将发布5月份的通胀数据，如超出预期，对美联储的宽松货币政策将会构成一定程度的压力。通胀的上涨通常伴随着利率的上升，而利率上升对高估值股票会构成压力。上世纪70年代的漂亮50泡沫破裂后，其估值从高达90多倍下跌到10多倍，其中一个重要因素就是通胀上升导致利率上升，从而刺穿了估值的泡沫。所以，高估值的股票有较大风险。此轮经济复苏过程中通胀到底涨到什么水平以及利率能够上到多高是未知的。但历史经验看，任何泡沫都会破灭,只是何时破灭无法确定。

美股科技股上涨，周期股回落。联储议息会议前市场谨慎。G7会议决定全球征收15% 的最低所得税率打击大型科技股，因其当前缴纳税率低于15%。

On Monday A-share rose while HK stocks fell.  In A-share some high-valued stocks announced that major shareholders will sell stocks. In HK market the pandemic in Guangdong Province caused market concern on economic recovery. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 3.97 billion and HK$ 1.45 billion respectively.

The high inflation would cause the asset bubble to burst.  Inflation has become the top concern for investors worldwide. Yet when economy is recovering inflation actually reflects strong demand. And if inflation is below 3% it is acceptable. As Yellen, the Ministry of Finance in the US, said on Monday that inflation is good for the US economy. After all, the Federal Reserve of the US fought with deflation over the last decade in vain. But if inflation is above 4% it is called hyperinflation and is usually considered as vicious. Governments would take measures to fight the hyperinflation as it would cause disorder of economy including pressing demand and unfair income allocation. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year (yoy) in April into the hyperinflation levels. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), an inflation benchmark that Fed follows, rose 3.58% yoy andcore PCE rose 3.06% yoy in April. Both are higher than the 2% target set by Fed.Next week CPI in May would be released. If that’s higher than market expected,the Fed is under pressure to take back liquidity. High inflation usually drives up interest rate, which would cause stock valuation to fall. A case in point is the Nifty-Fifty in the 1970s, when the hyperinflation caused interest rate to fly and the Nifty-Fifty’s valuation to fall from 90x price-to-earnings ratio （PE） to 10x PE in ten years. We don’t know how high the inflation would rise ultimately as well as the interest rate. But high-valued stocks would come under pressure with the inflation and interest rate going up. Bubbles will burst for sure with the interest rate climbing.  

Tech stocks rose while cyclical sectors fell in the US.  Market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting next week. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

上周（下周）全球主要指数涨多跌少。资源国指数涨幅领先，巴西、俄罗斯和澳大利亚分别上涨3.6%、2.6%和1.7%，位居全球16个主要国家和地区指数涨幅前三名。只有上证指数、恒生指数和日经指数下跌，分别下跌0.2%、0.7%和0.7%。A股和港股年初以来涨幅落后全球其他主要国家和地区指数，A股主要受到流动性回收的影响，而港股主要受到疫情的冲击，但港股表现总体好于A股。A股申万28个行业中17个上涨，11个下跌，化工、通信和采掘领涨，而休闲服务、家用电器和休闲服务领跌；港股12个综合行业4个上涨，8个下跌。其中科技、医疗保健和能源行业上涨，而原材料、金融和公用事业跌幅领先。北上资金净流入89亿人民币，南下资金净流入43.7亿港币。北上和南下净流入金额较前一周均有所减少。

非农就业数据再度不及预期。5月非农就业人数仍然低于市场预期，这是在4月份之后连续第二月低于市场预期。而且低于预期的原因也都是一样的：首先是疫情期间发放的救济金太好，美国人连工作的动力都没有了；其次，学校还没开学，需要大人在家里面看孩子；最后，还有很多人觉得疫情还没控制住，不想冒着风险去工作。这三个因素可能都需要时间来解决。对于救济金过高的问题，美国目前已经有25个州选择停止发放州政府的失业救济金，而联邦政府的失业救济金需要等到9月份才能停止发放。而学校也需要等到9月份才能开学，届时家长们才可能出来找工作。最后，预计美国到秋季可以实现疫苗接种覆盖所有成年人，疫情也能够得到有力控制。5月非农就业数据再度低于预期，有可能会延迟美联储缩减债券购买计划的时机，因为美联储将就业视为主要的政策目标，即使下周公布的消费者价格指数涨幅超出预期，也不会促使其回收流动性。5月非农就业数据对美元构成压力，预计美元近期将走弱。人民币可能还会面临一定的升值压力，有利于A股。而美元走弱，有利于港股，具体请参见我们2020年12月发表在枫瑞视点微信公众号上的文章港股明年大概率跑赢A股。

美股上周五上涨。FAANG股票领涨，国债收益率走低。

Most of the global major indexes rose last week (the same below). Commodity countries including Russia, Brazil and Australia saw their indexes rally. A-share fell while HK stocks rose slightly and both lagged behind other major indexes. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 8.9 billion and HK$ 437 million. Both were lower than the net inflow in previous week.

Non-farm payrolls in May came in lower than expected.  The reasons include that enhanced employment benefits have made it harder for employers to fill low-paying jobs, working parents continue to struggle with child care, and some workers are sitting out because of the pandemic concerns. Now 25 states have opted out of enhanced unemployment insurance payments ahead of the federal expiration, which would come in September. In September schools will reopen and parents can go out to look for jobs. Moreover, by September all of the adults in the US should be vaccinated fully, meaning that the pandemic could be under well control. But before that non-farm payrolls might continue to come in short of expectation despite the strong demand of workers. Market believed that Fed would delay its tapering plan due to the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls data. Despite that Consumer Price Index in May, which would be released this week, might come in higher than expected, Fed would not take back liquidity as it takes full employment as the primary policy target. Because of the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls the US dollar weakened while 10-year Treasury yield fell. The weakening US dollar is beneficial to both A-share and HK stocks. The RMB might face appreciation pressure again. The weakening US dollar is good for HK stocks as analyzed in “The HK market could outperform A-share in 2021” published in official wechat--Maple Insights in Dec. 2020.

The US stocks rallied last Friday. Big tech companies—FAANG stocks rose the most as treasury yield fell. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周四A股和港股继续下跌。A股融资余额连续两日超过1.7万亿人民币（下同），上次融资余额超过1.7万亿是2015年4-6月，即股灾发生之前。2015年6月融资余额达到历史最高点2.07万亿。2015年从年初到4月仅仅几个月融资余额就从1万亿上涨到1.7万亿，而今年年初以来融资余额就在1.6-1.7万亿之间，上涨速度较平稳，应不会造成像2015年那样一旦流动性收紧股市大幅调整的影响。周四A股28个行业中11个上涨，17个下跌。其中电信、钢铁和采掘行业领涨，而电气、军工和家用电器领跌。港股主要指数下跌均在1个百分点左右，恒生12个综合行业全线下跌，原材料和科技行业跌幅居前。北上和南下资金净流入分别为15.2亿人民币和4.4亿港币。

中国经济仍在扩张区间。6月1日公布的5月财新中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）录得52，较4月微升0.1个百分点，为2021年以来最高。5月财新中国通用服务业经营活动指数（服务业PMI）录得55.1，较4月的高点56.3有所下滑，但仍超过50，服务行业已连续13个月在扩张区间。支撑5月经营活动扩张的因素是销售持续增长。调查样本企业反映，中国成功遏制疫情，客户需求得以继续复苏；同时，还有企业提到新产品问世促进了销售。财新PMI主要衡量的是中小企业以及私营企业的状况，而中国官方PMI主要是衡量大型企业和国有企业的状况。5月份中国官方制造业和非制造业PMI也都在扩张区间。但是无论是官方还是财新PMI都显示外需订单的回落。未来外贸出口能否在内需回落的情况下支撑中国经济增长需要观察。美国小非农就业数据超预期。美国自动数据处理公司自动发布的私营部门就业数据被称为“小非农”，一般在每月第一周的周三发布，而非农就业数据在每月第一周的周五发布。因此，小非农就业数据常常被视为对非农就业数据的一个指引。但事实上二者有时候差异巨大。五月小非农显示美国私营部门就业增加了978,000，较4月份的654,000大幅上涨，为2020年6月以来的最大增幅。受此消息刺激，美元指数上涨至90以上，同时黄金等贵金属和铜等工业金属价格大幅下挫。美股开盘大跌，但随后反弹。截止收盘道指和标普500小幅下跌，而纳指跌幅较大。周五将发布的非农就业数据将会对市场走向产生重要影响。

Both A-share and HK stocks continued to fall on Thursday. The financing balance ofA-share in total reached above RMB 1.7 trillion, which caused some concerns among investors. Last time the financing balance above RMB 1.7 trillion was during April to June in 2015, just before the big crash of A-share. However, in 2015 the financing balance rose from RMB 1 trillion to RMB 1.7 trillion in only a few months. This time the financing balance grew gradually year-to-date and we believe it would not cause big turbulence in the market. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 1.52 billion and HK$ 440 million.

China economy is still expanding but export demand is weakening. Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) was 52, the highest reading year-to-date.Caixin service PMI in May was 55.1, down from 56.3 in April but still above 50,which is the threshold for expansion. Caixin service PMI has remained above 50 for 13 months in a row. The earlier released official manufacturing and service PMI showed that China’s economy is expanding. Yet both official and Caixin PMI revealed that export demand is dwindling. Whether the export demand can make up the slowing domestic demand is the key to China’s economic growth in 2021.

ADP data boosted the USdollar. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Company released jobs data, showing that the US economy added a total of 978,000 jobs in May. This is the biggest monthly increase since June 2020. The US dollar went strong at this news and gold and metals dropped sharply. Dow and SP 500 fell slightly while Nasdaq fell more than 1%. Market focus is on the non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday. If the data is better than expected Fed would begin to taper very soon. ADP measures the employment situation in private sectors while non-farm payroll measures the employment in both public and private sectors. ADP data is usually taken as a bellweather of non-farm payroll. But sometimes these two sets of data diverge.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。