周二A股和港股均探底回升。A股申万28个行业中7个上涨，21个下跌,涨幅居前的为医药生物、休闲服务和纺织服装。恒生12个综合行业中7个上涨，5个下跌，原材料行业继续领涨，公用事业、能源和金融行业跌幅居前。北上和南下资金分别净流入35亿人民币和8.3亿港币。贵州茅台一季度净利润同比上升6.6%，为2015年以来的最低增速。

美团将被处罚但影响不大。摩根·斯坦利认为市场监管总局对美团的调查并不令市场感到意外，美团之前已经完成了募资，罚款风险应是可控的。野村认为美团可能会因违反反垄断法被国家市监局定罪。按垄断法规定，罚款额为上年度综合营业额的1%-10%。如罚款是按上一年销售额的4%(如阿里巴巴的情况)，美团将可能被罚款46亿元人民币(约7.06亿美元)，相当于美团净现金余额180亿美元的约4%，包括最近发行股票和可换股债券筹集的100亿美元，预计潜在罚款对美团的业务影响有限。该行维持美团买入评级，目标价404港元。美团股价周二早盘下跌，之后转涨。

买入周期股并不晚。过去一个月，周期股总体跑输市场。自去年9月份直到四月中旬，美股的价值股跑赢成长股20个百分点。但根据美国银行，在经济复苏的早期阶段，价值股通常跑赢成长股60个百分点。通胀和对经济敏感的股票的表现通常紧密相关。对未来五年的通胀预期已经从去年9月份的1.5%上升到2.4%。成长和价值股之间的估值差异也反应股市并没有反应经济复苏。成长股对价值股的估值差与危机刚开始的时候是一样的，比2008年金融危机以来的中位数水平要高。银行是对利率非常敏感的周期股。当经济好转时，对贷款的需求会增加。同时随着经济复苏，利率曲线将更为陡峭，银行的净息差会提升。尽管美国国债收益率上升，但银行的表现并没有完全反应经济复苏的乐观前景。对上游周期股而言，铜铝等金属价格从去年3月份的低点已经或接近翻倍。金属类上市公司都有较大的经营杠杆，因此，他们的净利润增速应远大于收入增速，后者受金属价格的驱动。这类周期股应该还有上涨空间。

美股涨跌不一。2月份房屋价格同比上涨12%，15年来最大涨幅。

Major indexes in both A-share and HK market rose slightly on Tuesday. Trading volume was lower than on Monday in both markets. 7 out of 28 sectors rose with bio-medicine, leisure service and textile sector rising the most. In HK market 7 out of 12 sectors rose with raw material sector still rising the most. Utilities, energy and financial sector fell the most. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB3.5billion and HK$ 830 million respectively. Morgan Stanley (MS) believed that it was not out of expectation that Meituan was investigated by the State Administration for Market Regulation for monopolistic business behavior. MS thought the likely punishment to Meituan would not have big impact on its business. Nomura estimated that Meituan might be fined RMB 4.6 billion, 4% of its revenue (same as what Alibaba has been fined). Meituan has raised RMB 10 billion recently via stock and bond issuance and its net cash balance is RMB18 billion.  

It’s not late to buy cyclicals. Cyclicals lagged behind the overall market in April. Cyclicals outperformed growth stocks by 20 percentage point from last September till mid-April. But they usually outperform growth stocks by 60 percentage point in early stage of economic recovery, according to Bank of America. Valuation gap between growth and value stocks is the same as the pandemic began and higher than the median levels from 2008 global financial crises till now. Banks are sensitive to economic recovery and interest rate. When economy recovers demand for loans increases. Meanwhile, banks’ net margin will expand as interest rate will rise with economy going up. Although the US treasury yields have risen two times from their lows in last August, banks’ stock performance is lagging behind. So do the metal stocks. Metal listed companies have big operating leverage, which will drive their earnings to grow much higher than metal prices.

The US stocks mixed. Home prices in February rose 12% year-on-year, the biggest gain in 15 years.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

A股周一下午跳水，港股小幅下跌。A股成交量创下3月16日以来的新高达到9000亿人民币以上。申万28个行业中只有3个上涨，分别是采掘、有色金属和化工。恒生12个综合行业中只有原材料行业上涨，其余11个行业均下跌，其中必需消费、地产建筑和公用事业跌幅领先。北上和南下资金分别净流入32亿人民币和19.8亿港币。周一收盘后，市场监管总局发消息称将对美团涉嫌“二选一”垄断行为进行调查。无论是中国还是美国的网络股今年都面临监管压力,从而影响他们的股价表现。

抱团股为什么又跌了？A股周一下午突发跳水，抱团股领跌。抱团股面临双重压力，一是估值过高压力。尽管春节后抱团股股价有一些调整，但其估值仍处在历史较高水平。这波拉估值行情始于2019年初，两年时间资金将抱团股估值推高到了历史较高水平。以沪深300为例，其调整前最高点所对应的静态市盈率为17.4倍，仅次于2015年股灾发生前的市场最高点所对应的静态市盈率18.7倍。春节后至今，抱团股股价调整了2个月。估值虽然有所下降，目前为14.9倍，但仍处于近10年来90%的分位。罗马不是一日建成的，估值的抬升非一日之功，消化估值的过程也将会持续比较长的时间。以时间换空间对整体股市来说是一件好事情。如果以快速杀跌的方式调整估值，则对股市的冲击较大。二是一旦抱团股有一定幅度的上涨，基金面临的赎回压力就会加大。这主要是因为过去两年无论公募还是私募基金都主要投资于抱团股。为应对赎回压力，在其他股票都卖出之后，只能卖抱团股。因此，未来抱团股的股价如果不是下跌则至多是震荡。从刚刚发布完毕的基金一季报可以看出，抱团股已经有瓦解迹象。基金加仓顺周期板块，对抱团股的持仓水平总体回落。年初至今A股红利指数的涨幅为7%，远远领先其他风格指数，也表明资金在向价值股转移。上述表明，抱团股所代表的大盘成长未来上涨空间不大，每次上涨都应该是减仓的时机。

美股涨跌不一。标普500中1/3的公司发布了2021年1季度业绩，其中84%的公司盈利正增长。标普和纳斯达克指数创出历史新高，道指回落。拜登本周将会宣布一系列对富人征税的政策，包括提高资本利得税至几乎原来的两倍。白宫方面认为资本利得税只会对0.3%的人口征收，因此影响不大。

A-share tumbled and HK stocks fell slightly on Monday . A-share dived on Monday afternoon. Only mining, non-ferrous metal and petrochemical sector rose out of 28 sectors rose in A-share. In HK market only raw material sector rose out of 12 sectors in HK. And consumer stable, property and utilities sector fell the most.North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB3.2 billion and HK$1.98 billion respectively. The State Administration for Market Regulation announced that it would investigate Meituan for its monopolistic business behavior of “Choosing one from two”. This year both Chinese and the US mega-tech firms are faced with supervision measures, which would dent their stocks rally.

Why group-holding stocks fell again? The dive of A-share on Monday afternoon was mainly due to the sell-off of group-holding stocks, which are faced with two challenges. Firstly, their valuation is still at hefty levels.Take the example of CS300, its trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio(TTW PE) was 17.4x, which was only second to the highest level-18.7x before market crash in 2015 over the last 10 years. Group-holding stocks began correction after the Chinese New Year. After two months’ correction CS300 is valued at 14.9x, which puts it at 90% percentile over the last 10 years. Secondly,redemption pressure rose with the group-holding stocks rising. As so many mutual funds have put their money in group-holding stocks, they have to sell them when faced with redemption pressure. Hence, group-holding stocks’ prices would at best bounce up and down if not go down sharply. 1Q2021 reports of mutual funds showed that they are moving away from group-holding stocks. They increased exposure to cyclical stocks while cut exposure to group-holding stocks. In summary, any bounce of group-holding stocks are the chances of getting out of them.

The US stocks mixed. Dow fell while SP 500 and Nasdaq hit record levels.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

上周五A股和港股均上涨。上周（下同）A股28个行业中19个上涨，9个下跌。涨幅居前的是电气设备、医药生物和食品饮料，跌幅居前的是商业贸易、纺织服装和房地产。恒生12个综合行业中8个上涨，下跌的行业为能源、公用事业、地产建筑和金融，医疗保健、原材料和工业领涨。印度疫情恶化引发A股和港股的医疗板块崛起。北上资金净流入210.2亿人民币，南下资金净流入240亿港币。

三位数的市盈率和100倍的收益。2000年互联网泡沫破灭之前，美国股市上一些大市值公司的市盈率都有三位数。这些公司包括思科、美国在线、甲骨文、北电网络、太阳微系统公司、易安信、捷迪讯光电、高通和雅虎。这九家公司中美国在线、北电网络、太阳微系统公司随着互联网泡沫破灭而消失，雅虎在2016年7月黯然退市。其余5家公司的股价在2000-2002年经历了大幅调整，个别股票的股价回落99%。但如果持有至今，也都有不错的收益。A股一位投资人2008年投资了某医药股，持有13年收益达到100倍。该消息引发A股市场对价值投资的讨论。该股票在2008年时的市盈率为50倍左右，目前的市盈率也是在这一水平。因此，13年来股价的上涨基本是由盈利所驱动，生动诠释了价值投资。但为什么2000年互联网泡沫破灭后互联网公司股价大跌，让投资人损失惨重，而A股这家医药公司市盈率不算低却能够给投资人带来丰厚的回报呢？原因在于盈利的可持续性。互联网泡沫破灭在于商业模式出现了问题，只靠广告支撑收入的商业模式在经济下行期遭遇了很大挑战。当然，泡沫破灭还有羊群效应起作用，体现在投资人对权威的盲从以及无知和偏见，过于相信新科技带来的商业模式，认为互联网企业的现金流问题可以在短期内解决，相信市场不会崩溃。这种愚蠢和无知主导的偏见一旦被证伪后，最终必定是一地鸡毛。而在遇到好的股票之后，能够持有13年同样也不是一件容易的事情。因此，做好价值投资需要独立判断和坚守自己的投资理念。就像芒格所说，投资并不简单。坚持价值投资知易行难。

美股上涨。印度新冠病例数上升引发市场关注。但因为印度在全球贸易中所占比重较小，只要其病毒没有特别的传染性，对全球经济的影响就不大。全球经济复苏的不平衡也可以缓解下半年的通胀压力以及量化宽松退出的压力。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Friday. Last week (the same below) 19 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with electric equipment,bio-medicine and food and beverage rising the most. 8 out of 12 sectors in HK rose with healthcare, raw material and tech sector rising the most. Energy, financials,utilities and property sector fell. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 21.02 billion and  HK$ 24 billion respectively.  The sharp rise of COVID-19 new cases in India promoted healthcare sector in both A-share and HK market to rise.

Three digit price-to-earnings ratio (PE) and 100x return. In 2000 there were 9 big-cap companies with three-digit PE in the US stock market. They were Cisco, Oracle, America Online,Nortel Networks, Sun Microsystems, EMC, JDC Uniphase, Qualcomm and Yahoo. By the time the network bubble went off, America Online, Nortel Networks and Sun Microsystems went bankruptcy. Yahoo delisted in 2016. The remaining five companies suffered big retreat of stock prices during 2000 and 2002. Some of them saw their stock prices cut by 99%. But if investors hold them till now, they get big returns. In A-share an investor bought a medicine company’s stock in 2008. She forgot to sell it until recently and only found that the stock rose 100x. This stock was valued at 50x plus PE in 2008 when the investor bought it and remains at this level now. Hence, the stock price was pushed up mainly by earnings growth. This is a case in point for value investment. That the internet bubble burst was due to faulty business model. In 2000 internet companies’ income mainly come from advertisement, which subjected to economic cycle. Moreover, ignorance and to blindly follow so-called professionals also helped build the bubble. Investment requires independent judgment and to stick to value investment principles. But it is easier said than done.

The US stocks rose. Investors were optimistic as vaccination rollout went on well.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周四A股下跌，港股上涨。隔夜美股大涨对A股并没有任何带动，A股全天振荡下行，小幅收跌。成交金额较前一交易日略所降低。申万28个行业中17个上涨，涨幅居前的为钢铁、通信和电子，跌幅居前的为银行、休闲服务和商业贸易。港股前一交易日大跌后，周四小幅上涨，成交量与前一交易日持平。恒生12个综合行业中9个上涨，能源、金融和公用事业下跌。而医疗保健、原材料和科技行业领涨。北上资金净流出10.6亿人民币，南下资金净流入58.9亿港币，较前一交易日增加40%。

增长率陷阱。增长率陷阱是杰里米·西格尔在其著作《投资者的未来》中提出的概念。所谓增长率陷阱就是投资者对成长型股票支付过高的价格，导致投资收益下降。在增长率陷阱中，投资者追求激动人心的新产品、新技术，购买热门股票和投资于快速发展的国家。但事实证明，新兴的产业和公司不仅不能为投资者带来丰厚的回报，而且他们的收益也比不上那些传统企业。根据西格尔的研究，对于长期投资者而言，股利至关重要。股利再投资是长期股票投资获利的关键因素。最近媒体报道一个长达85年的被动投资基金获得了5000多倍收益，年化收益为10.58%，其中一个关键因素就是股利再投资。成长型股票都是低股利甚至不发放股利的公司。其次，股票的长期收益并不是由实际利润增长情况所决定的，而是取决于实际的利润增长与投资者预期的利润增长之间的差异。这就是通常提到的预期差。对高成长股票，预期往往较高，一旦预期落空，股价就会在戴维斯双杀下大幅回落。巴菲特曾用一句话回应追逐热门股票：去火星探险是激动人心的，不过让别人去吧。

欧央行对经济的支持将会延续到明年。欧元区到夏季将会有70%的人口接种新冠疫苗，1季度经济环比4季度下跌，但预计2季度经济将会强劲增长，通胀也会上升。欧央行预计2021年的通胀水平为1.5%，低于2%的政策目标。欧洲央行内部有声音提出削减债券购买，期望3季度欧央行削减债券购买规模，但也有分析师认为直到2022年欧央行才有可能开始削减债券购买计划。

美股下跌。经济数据好于预期，但资本利得税将翻倍冲击股市。

A-share fellslightly and HK stocks rose on Thursday. 17 out of 28 sectors rosein A-share with iron and steel, telecom and electronic leading the market. Bankand leisure service fell. 9 out of 12 sectors in HK rose with healthcare, raw material and tech sector rising the most. Energy, financial and utilities sector fell. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 1.06 billion. South-bound  capital net inflow of HK$ 5.89 billion, up 40% from that on Wednesday.   

Growth rate trap. Growth rate trap is a concept that Jeremy Siegel brought up in his book “The future for investors”. Growth rate trap refers to that investors pay high premium to high-growth stocks and this results in low return in the future. In growth rate trap investors chase those hot technology and products and buy high-growth sectors and countries. According to Siegel these hot stocks and sectors cannot provide the same return as the traditional sectors. Dividend reinvestment is a key for long-term return. But high-growth companies usually pay little dividend. Moreover, investment return does not depend on the real growth rate but on the difference between real growth rate and the expected growth rate. For those high-growth stocks the expectation is usually high. In case that the growth rate does not meet expectation stock prices would suffer Davis double-killing.

The US stocks fell. The initial jobless claimlast week was 547,000, better than expected. The news that Biden is considering to raise capital gain tax from 20% to 39.7% for income above US$ 1 million sent stocks to fall swiftly. European stocks rose as the European Central Bank would continue to support economy until 2022. It is expected that 70% European would get vaccinated by summer. While economic growth in Euro-region fell quarter-on-quarter in 1Q2021 due to the pandemic, economy would grow faster in 2Q2021 with the pandemic under control. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周三A股探底回升。受隔夜美股下跌影响，A股和港股均跳空低开。A股申万28个行业中9个上涨，涨幅居前的为医药、银行和休闲服务，跌幅居前的为钢铁、汽车和公用事业。港股主要指数跌幅在1.7-1.8%之间，恒生12个综合行业全部下跌，其中能源、科技和非必需消费跌幅居前。北上资金净流出10.6亿人民币，南下资金净流入42亿港币，南下资金在港股市场大跌时抄底。

该恐惧还是该贪婪？不论市场在顶点还是底点，恐惧和贪婪是投资者一直要面对的问题。正如诺贝尔经济学奖得主耶鲁大学经济学教授罗伯特·席勒所言：股市如战场，投资者要做到知己知彼，但知己不易，知彼更难。投资者必需掌控自己的冲动，也需要洞察他人的冲动。当其他人恐惧时贪婪，当其他人贪婪时恐惧。如何判断其他人是恐惧还是贪婪？有很多指标可以跟踪，比如股价的回落程度、成交量以及基金的发行进度等。上面的分析其实都是和行为金融学紧密相关。相较于有效市场假说中的假设所有人都是理性的，在行为金融学中既有理性参与者，也有有限理性参与者。韭菜一茬一茬地被割，就是因为一波有限理性参与者被赶出市场，另一波有限理性参与者又进入了市场。做理性参与者需要逆向思维，跟人性对抗。一个被广为传播的股价曲线中，投资者往往在股价最高点最乐观，在股价最低点最悲观。当投资者觉得不错的股票价格下降了，会不舍得卖出，想等到价格升了再卖，结果价格持续下跌，就更不舍得了，解套遥遥无期，而理性的行为则应该是及时止损。行为金融学也发现不常查看其投资组合的投资者会经历更少的痛苦，从而能减少情绪带来的影响，防止做出糟糕的决策——研究结果表明，如果投资者按月查看自己的投资组合， 而不是每天都得查看一遍，他们将会减少38%的损失。在投资者的行为偏差中，还包括过度依赖以往股票的表现来推断未来的价格走势等。投资线性外推往往是危险的。具体到当前市场，是该恐惧还是贪婪呢？我们认为总体市场的热度较春节前有较大幅度的降温，无论是从成交量还是基金的发行来看。很多个股短期回落幅度也较大。因此当前至少不需要过于恐惧，部分个股存在明显低估，可以贪婪的。

美股大涨。市场全方位上涨。国债收益率回落到1.55%，原材料价格上涨，而美元弱势，市场处在刚刚好的完美阶段。

A-share bottomed out while HK stocks tumbled on Wednesday. Due to that the US stocks fell overnight both A-share and HK stocks jumped low. In A-share 9 out of 28sectors rose with healthcare, bank and leisure service rising the most and ironand steel, auto and utilities falling the most. In HK all of the 12 sectors fellwith energy, raw material and discretionary consumption falling the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 106 million. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$4.2 billion. South-bound capital bottom fished when HK market fell sharply.

Should we fear or be greedy? Whether the market is on the top or at the bottom, to fear or be greedy is always a question for investors. Just as Nobel laureate Robert Shiller pointed out, the stock market is like a battlefield and an investor should know him- or herself as well as other investors. However, it is rather difficult to know ourselves and it is even more challenging to know other investors well. Investors should keep herd instinct under control and observe others’ herd instinct clearly. When other peoplefear you should be brave and when other people are brave you should fear. The above analyses are associated with behavioral finance. In behavioral finance, some people are rational while others are not that rational. Investors are being played for a sucker one after another mainly because that they are not that rational. Investors are always most optimistic when the stock prices are at their top and the most pessimistic when stock prices are at the bottom. Now should we fear or be greedy in A-share? Several indicators to follow including fundraising, trading volume and how big stock prices fall, etc showed that A-share hascooled down quite a lot compared with what happened before the Chinese New Year.We should not fear too much. Some stocks are valued at low levels and worth being greedy.

The US stocks rallied.  Market fired on all cylinders. 10-year Treasury fell to 1.55% together with a soft US dollar creates goldilocks for the market. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周二A股调整。申万28个行业中10个上涨，涨幅居前的为综合、农林牧渔和钢铁，跌幅居前的为通信、纺织服装和汽车。沪深两市成交量较前一交易日略有回落。港股恒生12个综合行业中8个上涨，非必需性消费业、金融业和综合领涨，原材料、能源和工业下跌。北上资金净流出5亿人民币，南下资金净流入53.9亿港币。

美股再通胀交易。上周四，美国商务部发布了3月份的零售额，季调之后达到创纪录的7.4万亿美金。华尔街资深人士亚蒂尼认为最近在政府发放疫情资助支票后，2.5亿美国人总计有8000亿美金的现金在账上，足以够他们在各大商场、超市扫货。3月份的零售销售额较一年前的4月份的最低点上涨了50%。3月零售额数据出台后，亚特兰大联储预计美国1季度GDP季调之后增长8.3%，之前为6%。杰富瑞证券的全球策略分析师戴仕文将2021到2022年的全球经济增长比喻成100米接力赛，接力棒从中国手中传到美国手中，然后是英国、日本和欧洲一起拿下接力棒。由于库存水平偏低以及供应链的各种问题，他认为美国经济增长远远没有达到顶峰。但是企业盈利增速有可能已经到顶，一方面原材料价格上涨，另一方面拜登政府加税，二者对企业盈利都会造成压力。3月份美国生产者价格指数同比上涨4.2%，创下47年来最大涨幅。综合各种因素，戴仕文建议坚持再通胀交易，小盘股优于大盘股，经济增长和通胀将会使利率曲线更为陡峭，银行和消费金融公司将会受益，推荐受益于经济复苏周期性股票。

A股再通胀交易表现较弱。年初以来，A股申万28个行业中14个上涨，14个下跌。其中钢铁、采掘和轻工制造领涨，分别上涨28%、9%和8%，国防军工、非银金融和通信领跌。港股年初以来12个行业中，11个上涨，仅有必需消费行业下跌。其中原材料、综合和能源领涨，分别上涨23.4%、23.2%和19.6%。相比之下，A股与再通胀交易相关的周期性行业涨幅较小，主要原因是大资金仍然布局在所谓好赛道上。考虑到好赛道的高估值，对其的盈利预期也在高位，未来很有可能下降；其股价也面临下行风险。而对周期股的盈利增速预期较低，盈利增速和股价都存在上行风险。

美股连续第二天下跌。奈飞新增用户数低于市场预期，股价大跌，带动纳指下跌。市场因新冠病例数持续上升对经济复苏产生质疑。

A-share fell slightly with smaller trading volume. 10 out of 28 sectors rose with conglomerate, farming and fishery and iron and steel sector rising the most. Telecom, textile and auto sector fell the most. In HK 8 out of 12 sectors rose with discretionary consumption, financial and conglomerate rising the most. Raw material, energy and industrial fell the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 500 million. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$5.39 billion.

Reflation trade in the US stock market. Last Thursday the Commerce Department in the US reported that retail sales in March rose to a record seasonally adjusted US$7.4 trillion, which was 50% increase from last April. Afterthe latest stimulus checks to households, about 250 million Americans have received checks that added up to roughly US$ 800 billion in cash available for them to buy anything they want in supermarkets and department stores. After March retail sales data the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta raised 1Q2021 GDP growth rate from 6% to 8.3%. While economic growth is strong companies’ earnings might peak under the pressure of rising input costs and the likely tax rate increase by Biden administration. March producer price index rose 4.2% year-on-year, the largest gain in 47 years. Sean Darby from Jefferies recommended reflation trade including banks and cyclicals.

Reflation trade in A-share performed poorly.  Year-to-date reflation trade in A-share rose much less than in HK market. While a lot of money is still piling in the so-called“Good tracks”, these stocks’ earnings growth might miss given the high expectation. And the cyclicals that benefit from economic recovery might deliver earnings above expectation, which remains at low levels.

The US stocks fell for the second day in a row. Market worried that surging new cases of COVID-19 might stall economic recovery. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。