周一A股放量大涨。A股申万28个行业中24个上涨，涨幅居前的分别为汽车、电气设备和有色金属，跌幅居前的行业为钢铁、商贸和综合。沪深两市成交量创下一个月以来的高点。港股恒生12个综合行业中10个上涨，医疗保健、原材料和工业领涨，而科技和能源下跌。北上资金净流入163亿人民币，为年初以来净流入金额第二高，仅次于1月8日的206亿。南下资金净流入51亿港币，与前一交易日持平。上海车展周一开幕，汽车板块受到提振，涨幅在A股和港股都处于领先位置。上海车展显示汽车未来的发展方向为电动化和智能化，产业链利润格局将被重塑。根据券商预测，到2030年，我国汽车行业来自于售后服务和用车服务的利润将从2017年占比17%，总计1.16万亿人民币提升到占比34%，总计4.5万亿人民币。汽车行业市场规模将从10万亿上升到20万亿。如此大的市场规模吸引各路公司纷纷加入造车的行列。

买给谁呢？有一个小故事说一个投资人买了几千股股票，股价上涨之后告诉给经纪人卖掉股票。经纪人回答：卖给谁呢？你是唯一购买这只股票的人。老龄化社会对资产价格的压力从这个故事中可见端倪。美国前商务部长彼得·彼德森在其著作《灰色的黎明》中指出：前面有一座要崩塌的冰山，它被称为全球老龄化，它可能导致强国的崩溃。发达国家解决老龄化的办法包括全球化、开放移民等。我国也面临人口出生率持续下降、老年人口占比持续攀升的问题。未富先老是一个无可回避的现实。央行最近关于人口的研究报告引起市场的广泛关注，其结论就是只有提高出生率才能解决人口问题。本月底我国第七次人口普查报告将发布，市场预期人口政策将会有所调整。

欧元区经济走强，美元走弱。高盛将欧元兑美元汇率从1.21美元兑1欧元上调到1.25，未来12个月的目标价格为1.28。高盛同时上调了泛欧洲600指数的目标价格，预计未来12个月该指数上涨10%，而标普500预计只上涨6%。高盛上调欧元汇率的理由包括疫苗接种加快以及住院人数下降，预期欧元区的经济增长因此将会加速。国际货币基金组织预测欧元区2022年经济增长3.9%，重新回到疫情前的水平。高盛认为美元1季度走强只是反应了疫苗接种比欧元区早，并不是美国经济持续强于欧元区。

美股从高位滑落。科技股领跌，受益经济复苏的股票上涨。

A-share rallied with the biggest volume in a month. 24 out of 28 sectors rosewith auto, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal leading the market. And iron and steel, commerce and trade and conglomerates fell the most. In HK 10 out of 12 sectors rose with healthcare, raw material and industrial leading the market.  Tech and energy sector fell. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 16.3 billion, only lower than RMB 20.6 billion on Jan. 8th. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$5.1 billion. Shanghai Auto Exhibition opened on Monday, which triggered market sentiment towards auto sector. Auto will become more intelligent and electric vehicle will become the mainstream in the coming 10 years. The profit deriving from after-market service  and driving service will increase substantially from RMB 1.16 trillion, which was 17% of auto sector’s profit in 2017, to RMB 4.5 trillion in 2030, 34% of the sector profit. Market cap will double from current RMB10 trillion to RMB 20 trillion. Such a big market has attracted many players to join.

Who can you sell stocks to? Aging society has become a gray rhino for asset prices. Peter Peterson, the ex-Minister of Commerce in the US, pointed out in his book “Gray Dawn” that aging has become a global issue and this would cause the strong nations to crash. Developed countries have resorted to globalization and immigration to deal with this issue. China is also faced with aging issue with continuously falling birth rate and the elderly taking a bigger share of population. But China is different from the developed nations in aging issue. According to a research paper by the People’s Bank of China, developed countries with an aging population problem tend to be wealthier with a per capita GDP of at least $2,000, while China’s is half that at $1,000. The seventh population census results are to be released at the end of this month. Market expects China’s population policies to make some changes.

The US stocks fell from record high.   Tech stocks fell the most while economic recovery stocks rose. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周五A股和港股均上涨。上周（下同）上证指数和创业板指分别下跌0.7%和0.26%，科创50上涨0.8%。申万28个行业中12个上涨，汽车、采掘和食品饮料领涨，而休闲服务、银行和公用事业领跌。港股恒生指数、国企指数分别上涨0.9%和0.45%，而科技指数下跌0.89%。恒生12个综合行业中9个上涨，能源、原材料和非必需消费领涨，而科技、医疗保健和金融下跌。北上净流入从前两周的净流出转为净流入247亿人民币，该净流入金额为年初以来第二高，仅次于春节前一周的253亿人民币。南下资金连续三周净流入，上周净流入44.9亿港币，较前一周净流入金额下跌36%。

1季度经济增速略低于预期。我国1季度GDP同比增速18.3%，略低于市场预期，因疫情抑制消费。2019和2020年两年平均GDP增速为5%，低于趋势增速。1季度出口超预期，但随着国外疫情的好转带动生产能力的提升，我国出口增速很可能会走弱。投资中的基建增速超预期，房地产增速保持稳定。未来需关注投资和消费增速能否弥补出口增速下降。我们判断一旦经济走弱，货币和财政政策将积极应对。

道指36000。1999年，詹姆斯·格拉斯曼和凯文·哈希特合著《道指剑指36,000点》一书。他们在书中指出，债券和股票的风险长期来看是相同的。因此，为了让股票与债券的风险一样，股市要上涨3倍。他们预期3-5年内道指可以达到36000点。当时道指接近10000点。但《股市长线法宝》的作者杰里米·西格尔随即在华尔街日报上对他们的观点进行了反驳。他认为股票的收益率需要高于通胀保值债券的收益率。当时，10年期通胀保值债券的收益率为4%。随后一年股市迎来了互联网泡沫的破裂。而《道指剑指36000点》也被当成是市场过热时的热血言论被人一笑置之。上周道指在经济数据和企业盈利超预期的好消息刺激下，首次迈过34000点大关。当前10年期通胀保值债券的收益率为-0.77%。在负利率的支撑下，道指36000应该很有希望近期实现。A股上证指数10多年来一直在3000点上下波动。上证指数如果在当前水平上涨2倍，有机会上万点。如果保持当前估值水平，则需要企业盈利增速未来10年每年增长12%以上。随着注册制的逐步推行，好企业将会成为市场的主导。我们认为未来上证指数有希望保持一个稳定的盈利增速。届时A股上万点也不是梦。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last Friday.  Last week (the same below) Shanghai Composite Index (SCOMP) and Chinext Index fell 0.7% and 0.26% respectively while STAR50 rose 0.8%. Hang Seng Index and China Enterprises Index rose 0.9% and 0.45% respectively while Tech Index fell 0.9%. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 24.7 billion, the second highest weekly net inflow year-to-date. South-bound capital saw the third week net inflow in a row at HK$4.5 billion.

GDP growth rate in 1Q2021 slightly missed expectation. 1Q2021 GDP grew 18.3% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected, mainly due to that the pandemic pressed consumption. Export was still strong. But with the developed countries’ vaccination rollout faster than expected their production capacity would pick up, meaning China’s export growth might face some challenges going forward. Whether investment or consumption can make up the hole from export weakness is a key. If economy turns weak the monetary and fiscal policy would become more proactive.

DOW rose above 34000.  In 1999 James Glassman and Kevin Hassett wrote a book called “Dow 36000”, in which they expected DOW to reach 36000 in a couple of years. They based their argument on that stocks can rise 2 times higher as investors face the same risk for investing stocks and bonds in the long run.Jeremy Siegel, the author of “Stocks for the long run” repudiated their argument by pointing out that stocks should have real return above 10-year TIPS bonds, which yielded 4%. In 2000 stock market crashed amid internet bubble. The book “Dow 36000” was almost considered a joke. Today 10-year TIPS bonds yield -0.77%.Last week Dow passed 34000 for the first time in history. With the negative interest rate it is likely that Dow reaches 36000 soon. In contrast SCOMP has been bouncing around 3000 for years. But if the listed companies can grow earnings at 12% per annum over the next ten years, SCOMP would reach 10000.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周四A股和港股均缩量调整。A股申万28个行业中仅4个上涨，分别为有色金属、采掘、综合和家用电器，跌幅居前的行业为公用事业、休闲服务和非银金融。沪深两市成交量仅比昨日微增，处于年初以来的低位。深圳一家小型私募微明恒远投资举牌钢铁电商龙头上海钢联，成为第二大股东，仅次于郭广昌实控的公司。老牌私募艾方资产旗下产品则举牌了小市值公司摩恩电气，成为第三大股东。私募基金举牌上市公司表明其看好上市公司的发展前景，其做一个财务投资人可以，想介入管理可能不那么容易。港股恒生12个综合行业中7个上涨，其中原材料、能源和工业领涨，而科技、医疗保健和金融领跌。北上净流入9.5亿人民币，较周三57.3亿减少83.4%。南下资金从周三净流入转为净流出5.5亿港币。

投资不能老看着后视镜。我们可能正处在一个大变局的时代，看后视镜投资会错过很多投资机会。首先，通胀可能会持续上升。当前美国决策层对通胀的预计都是暂时的，不认为会发生持续的通胀。美国从2008年金融危机之后，消费者价格指数（CPI）年度同比增速最高是2011年，为3.6%，对应当年大宗商品和黄金的价格高点。之后一路走低，到2015年跌入负增长区间，-0.5%。2015到2020年新冠疫情发生之前，美国CPI每年的同比增速在1-2.5%之间。但是美联储最关注的衡量通胀的指标——个人消费支出平减指数PCE自2012年以来从未突破2%。事实上，在过去10年中该指标79%的时间是低于2%的水平，似乎确实存在一些根深蒂固的通胀阻力，使物价涨幅保持在较低水平。但自从新冠疫情以来，美国7万亿美金救市资金注入实体经济，通胀有可能超市场预期。其次，美国40年债牛正处在转折点上。美国10年期国债收益率从2020年8月的最低点0.5%，在半年多的时间上涨到最近的1.7%。如果通胀上升，利率也将持续上升。最后，全球2021年经济增长和美国经济增长都是过去40年来最好的一年，预计分别为6%和7%。中国经济增速为9%，是2012年以来的最高水平。这意味着2008年金融危机以来的低通胀、低利率和低增长的经济环境要转变为高通胀、高利率和高增长。经济环境逆转，过去的好公司可能不见得是未来的好公司。

道指和标普再创历史新高。3月零售环比增涨9.8%，大超预期。

Both A-share and HK stocks corrected on Thursday.  4 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose, which were non-ferrous metal, mining, conglomerate and home appliance. Utilities, leisureservice and non-bank financials fell the most. Trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange was only slightly higher than Wednesday at around RMB660billion. In HK market, 5 out of 12 sectors rose with raw material, energy and industrial sector rising the most. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 950 million, 83 % lower than the net inflow on Wednesday. South-bound capital saw net outflow ofHK$550 million versus net inflow on Wednesday.

To avoid looking at rear-view mirror in investment.We might experience a fundamental change in economy and making investment decision via looking at rear-view mirror would forego good investment opportunities. Firstly, inflation might persist rather than be transient. The US government has poured US$7 trillion into the economy, which is unprecedented and would cause inflation to go up for some time that could be much longer than expected. Inflation in the US has been remained at low levels after the 2008 financial crises. PCE, a key data that Fed observes as a measure for inflation, has been below 2% for 79% of time since the financial crises. Now that could change. Secondly, interest rate would go up with the inflation. In fact, 10-year treasury yield has increased from 0.5% in August 2020 to 1.7% most recently. The last but not the least, the global economy would grow robust in 2021 and might see the fastest growth rate in 40 years. Sowould be the US GDP, which is expected to grow at 7%. China’s GDP is predicted to grow at 9%, the highest since 2012. In sum, the economy of low inflation,low interest rate and low growth would change to high- inflation, high-interest-rate and high-growth pattern. Implication of good companies might change as well in this new pattern. It is wise to look forward in investment.  

DOW and SP 500 hit record high.  March retail sales was much better than expected. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周三A股和港股均缩量上涨。A股申万28个行业中25个上涨，其中休闲服务、电气设备和有色金属领涨，而下跌的行业为银行、农林牧渔和公用事业。成交量创出年初以来的新低，两市成交仅为6500亿人民币。港股恒生12个综合行业全部上涨，其中原材料、医疗保健和科技行业领涨。北上和南下资金均为净流入。北上净流入57.3亿人民币，较周二84.66亿减少32.3%。南下资金净流入13亿港币，较周二略增。

行情会是一日游吗？A股和港股均在连续下跌三天后迎来缩量反弹。很多投资者关心这种行情是否具有持续性。成交缩量表明大量资金采取观望态度，也就是对股市心存疑虑。我们倾向于认为A股市场整体行情的可能性不大，主要原因是沪深300的估值太高，当前静态市盈率为14.9倍，处于历史90%的分位。沪深300的权重主要是抱团股。分行业看，在A股28个行业中，当前静态市盈率在40倍以上的一共有8个行业，其中休闲服务、计算机和国防军工的静态市盈率最高，分别为180、60.6和60.6倍。而银行、房地产和建筑装饰的静态市盈率是所有行业中最低的，分别为7.5、8.4和9.3倍。A股年初至今10个板块上涨，其中银行和建筑装饰分别上涨7%和4%，分别列涨幅的第三和第五位。在下跌的18个行业中，高估值的国防军工和计算机跌幅较大，休闲服务行业跌幅较小。港股估值较低。以市净率看，港股的综合（即香港本地股）、能源和电讯的静态市盈率分别为0.4、0.5和0.7倍。港股年初以来12个综合行业中9个上涨，3个下跌。其中涨幅较好的行业均有低估值支撑，譬如涨幅前三的综合、能源和原材料。而仅有的三个下跌行业分别为必需消费、科技和医疗保健，他们都对应高估值。我们认为无论港股还是A股未来还将延续低估值公司上涨、而高估值公司回落的格局。所以，今年看市场整体走势并无太大意义。2021年将更注重自下而上选股，只要估值低、业绩好，无论在A股还是港股都有表现的机会。

美股从高位滑落。科技股大跌，拖累标普500和纳指，因经济复苏，通胀上涨。道指上涨，周三高盛、摩根大通等银行公布的业绩皆超预期，市场对经济复苏前景乐观。鲍威尔讲话指出今年美联储不太可能加息。周四将要公布3月零售数据，预期环比2月增长6%，因1400美金支票已发放到个人。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Wednesday.  25 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with leisure service, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal rising the most.Bank, farming and fishery and utilities fell the most. Trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange was RMB650 billion, the lowest level year-to-date. In HK market, all of the 12 sectors rose with raw material, tech and healthcare sector rising the most. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 5.73 billion, 33% lower than the net inflow on Tuesday. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$1.3 billion, slightly higher than the net inflow on Tuesday. 

Will the stock market continue to rise? Both A-share and HK stocks rose after falling for three days in a row. The low trading volume shows thatmany investors were not participating in the rally. They might want to figureout whether the rally can continue firstly. Our view is that broad market rally might not continue as major indexes are valued at a high level. Take the example of CS 300  Index, it is valued at 14.8x trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTM PE). This puts it at 90% percentile in history. Hence, there is just small room for it to improve valuation. If we analyze A-share from sector perspective, among the 28 sectors there are 8 sectors with TTM PE above 40x. And leisure service, military defense and computer are the highest valued with TTM PE at 180x, 60x and 60x respectively.  Bank, property and construction and decoration are the lowest-valued sectors with TTM PE at 7.5x, 8.4x and 9.3x respectively. Year-to-date there are 10 sectors rising. Most of them are low-valued sectors. In HK year-to-date 9 out of 12 sectors rose in HK market. The low-valued sectors performed better and the high-valued sectors fell. We believe that this year in both A-share and HK market low-valued sectors and stocks would outperform high-valued ones. Stock-picking becomes more important this year. 

DOW rose.  Bank earnings were better than expected.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

崩盘季。近期因市场调整，年前认购基金的投资者遭受不同程度的损失，使基金的发行面临困难。不时有基金募集失败的消息见诸媒体。去年抱团股的击鼓传花游戏难以为继，导致抱团股一个接一个上演崩盘。崩盘的另外一个原因就是个股估值较高，透支了未来几年的业绩。而抱团股闪崩的催化剂主要来自于业绩低于预期。这是高估值造成的必然结果。没有企业能够持续保持高速增长，50-100%的年业绩增速偶尔可以见到，但是长期保持是不可能的。所以，股价在高位时，很可能是市场将短期当成长期，将偶然当成必然，股价势必面临调整。周二尽管A股市场羸弱，但仍有9个行业上涨，其中农林牧渔、食品饮料和医药生物领涨，而休闲服务、钢铁和采掘领跌。

你的投资期限有多长？抱团股以及上世纪70年代美国的漂亮50均被认为可以持有一辈子的股票。漂亮50中的一些股票持有到今天，确实是几十倍股。但是一个投资人能够投资的年限有多长呢？股票投资者能做到像巴菲特持股几十年的并不多见。但产业投资人包括一级市场投资人和企业可以持有很长时间，他们给予的估值也都比较高。一个例子是2006年百威以58.86亿人民币收购福建雪津啤酒。雪津啤酒的净资产为5亿人民币，估值为12倍的市净率，对照某著名白酒公司当前16倍市净率。啤酒公司是重资产行业，用每百升企业价值（EV/hl）来衡量更合理。百威收购雪津的价格相当于100美金EV/hl，而当时中国啤酒企业估值约25美金EV/hl。百威收购雪津后，雪津的产能不断扩大，从2006年的75万吨扩张到2019年的200万吨，销售收入达到50亿元。百威并购雪津的价格很高。但随着企业经营规模不断扩大，经营效益提高，十多年后看百威出的价格并不高。A股市场上也有一些来自一级市场的基金。他们采用产业的视角进行投资，不看重当前的估值。只要行业没有重大变化，十多年后看他们所投资的企业最终还是能够带来回报。如果你也可以投入这么长的时间，高位买入好公司的股票是没问题的。最终好企业会提供好的回报。

周二美股科技股大涨。美国3月消费者价格指数环比上涨0.6%，同比上涨2.6%，均超市场预期。美国FDA因罕见血栓症状宣布暂停接种强生公司疫苗。周三摩根大通、高盛和富国银行将会发布2020年4季报。

Group-holding stocks tumbled one after another. With these group-holding stocks continuous falling those investors who bought funds holding these stocks suffered losses. This has made it difficult to issue new funds. Hence, the game to pass the parcel is over. That’s why group-holding stocks fell. Of course,another reason is due to that their valuation is way too high even after falling a lot from the high point. While the overall market was quite weak on Tuesday, there were still 9 sectors rising amid 28 in A-share. They were farming and fishery, food and beverage and bio-medicine. Leisure service, iron and steel and mining fell the most. The catalyst to the tumble of group-holding stocks is mainly from earnings disappointment.This is actually the fate of high-valued stocks. No companies can maintain earnings growth rate as high as 50-100% per annum. High growth happens occasionally not frequently. If investors extrapolate what happens in the long term based on the situation in the short term, then stocks would crash sooner or later.

How long can you invest in the stock market? In stock market it is not common for investors to invest for up to more than 10 years. But for industry and investors from the primary market their investment horizon is usually that long,if not longer. In 2006 InBev acquired Xuejin Brewery for RMB 5.9 billion, whichwas 12x price-to-book ratio (PB). As a contrast, nowadays a famous Chinese liquor company is valued at 16x PB. By 2019 Xuejin Brewery has almost tripled its production capacity and its overall sales revenue was RMB 5 billion. So given a long period of time investment in a good company is rewarding despite high valuation at the time of purchase. The question is whether you can hold a stock for that long.

The US tech stocks rallied. The US March CPI grew 0.6% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, higher than expected. Recovery stocks fell as FDA called for a pause of inoculation of J&J vaccine.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周一A股抱团股大跌打击人气。其实抱团股下跌并不奇怪，估值高再叠加业绩不达预期，总是有资金会抛售。但因为抱团股上集聚的资金太多，所以引发的扩散效应对其他板块造成较大打击。上证指数下跌1个百分点多，但估值较高的创业板指和科创50均下跌超过2%。从行业上看，只有3个行业上涨，分别是公用事业、钢铁和房地产，其余25个行业下跌，其中有色金属、轻工制造和化工板块领跌。一些1季报业绩增速较好的个股周一集体暴跌，侧面反应市场对其未来业绩增速的可持续性缺乏信心。我们上周指出一季报不是真正的考验，二季报才是，主要因为去年1季度因为疫情是个业绩低基数，而去年2季度对很多受益疫情的企业是业绩高基数。当然，对于1季报增速就低于预期的企业，股价连续下调也并不令人意外，譬如某快递公司。回过头看，当资本市场对其业务扩张欢呼的时候，其实就是其股价达到高点的时刻。

3月社融数据确认流动性拐点。3月社融规模存量增速从2月的同比上涨13.3%下降到12.3%，人民币贷款同比增速从12.9%下降到12.6%。M1和M2同比增速也分别由2月的7.4%和10.1%下降到7.1%和9.4%。3月社融新增面临去年的高基数，2020年3月因为疫情，社融新增达到5.18万亿人民币的天量。但是人民币贷款同样面临去年的高基数，但仅少增了1186亿元，反应需求强劲，经济基本面并不差。考虑到美国流动性仍在扩张，而我国流动性收缩，这种资金格局与2018年比较相似。2018年美国经济因为特朗普减税效应增长强劲，而我国经济处于下行期，叠加贸易战和去杠杆，股市遭受重创。但今年情况不同，我国经济增速强劲。虽然2季度美国经济因为低基数而强劲增长，而我国因为去年1季度是低基数所以2季度经济增速同比不会强于美国，但是2季度我国仍处于补库存周期。所以，今年不是2018年，经济复苏至少在上半年看是持续的。今年我国收缩流动性是为了防止发生通胀和资产泡沫的风险，缓慢收缩流动性对市场的总体压力不大。2018年我国去杠杆导致股市发生风险，资本市场“一遭被蛇咬，十年怕井绳”。但是2018年也是监管部门的前车之鉴，我们认为历史不会重演。

周一美股从高位滑落。本周美国上市公司开始发布2021年1季度业绩，市场预期业绩增速将会比较强劲。拜登周一与议员讨论2万亿美金的基建计划。

Group-holding stocks tumbled on Monday. Group-holding stocks tumbled again and caused other stocks to fall with them. While Shanghai Composite Index only fell 1%+, the high-valued Chinext Index and STAR 50 fell more than 2%. There are only 3 sectors out of 28 rising, which were utilities, iron and steel and property. And non-ferrous metal, light manufacturing and petrochemical fell the most. Some companies in these falling sectors fell to the down limit despite that they released strong 1Q2021 earnings. This might because that the market was doubt about their earnings growth sustainability. We have pointed out that 1Q2021 earnings are not the real test but 2Q2021 earnings are because 2Q2020 earnings are high-base especially for those companies benefiting from the pandemic last year.  

Aggregate Social Financing (ASF) showed turning point in March. ASF grew 12.3% year-on-year (yoy) versus 13.3% in Feb. RMB loan grew 12.6% yoy versus 12.9% in Feb. M1 and M2 grew 7.1% and 9.4% yoy respectively compared with 7.4% and 10.1%in Feb. ASF in March was faced with a high base in March 2020, when ASF increased by RMB 5.18 trillion as government aimed to boost economy hit by the pandemic. Yet RMB loan only fell slightly compared with March 2020 although it was faced with a high base as well. This reflected that economy is quite strong.The US is still releasing liquidity and China is taking back liquidity. This pattern seems to be similar to that in 2018. Yet in 2018 China economy was on a decline due to trade war, destocking of inventory and deleveraging policies. China economy would be in restocking stage of inventory cycle in 1H2021 and would still grow solidly. We do not foresee what happened in 2018 to come back again. After all 2018 provides a cautionary tale for both stock market and supervision authorities.

The US stocks fell from record high. President Biden met with a bipartisan group of lawmakers to push US$ 2 trillion infrastructure package. The US companies will report 1Q2021 earnings results this week.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。