周五A股和港股缩量下跌。上周（下同）上证指数、创业板指和科创50分别下跌0.97%、2.42%和2.19%。申万28个行业中，11个行业上涨，17个行业下跌。其中钢铁、综合和采掘行业涨幅领先，休闲服务、食品饮料和电气设备跌幅领先，这些行业都是抱团股集中的行业。恒生指数、国企指数和科技指数分别下跌0.83%、2.14%和3.08%。恒生综合行业指数中5个行业上涨，7个行业下跌。其中原材料、综合和工业行业领涨，科技、能源和医疗保健行业领跌。北上资金净流出53.3亿人民币，较前一交易降低46%。南下资金净流入70.4亿港币，连续第二周净流入。

中美3月份通胀抬升。我国3月消费者价格指数（CPI）由上月同比下降0.2%转为上涨0.4%。其中，猪肉价格下降18.4%，降幅扩大3.5个百分点。非食品中，受汽油、柴油价格上涨影响，工业消费品价格上涨1.0%，为近一年来同比首次上涨。我国3月生产者价格指数（PPI）同比上涨4.4%，超市场预期。和上年同期相比，3月PPI涨幅比上月扩大2.7个百分点。从环比看，受国际大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，PPI上涨1.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点。美国劳工部发布数据显示，经季节性因素调整，美国3月份消费者价格指数环比下降0.4%，预期下降0.3%，2月份上涨0.1%；未经季节性因素调整，同比上涨1.5%，预期上涨1.6%，2月份上涨2.3%。扣除食品和能源，美国3月份核心CPI环比下降0.1%，预期上涨0.1%，2月份上涨0.2%；同比上涨2.1%，预期上涨2.3%，2月份上涨2.4%。美国3月PPI同比增长4.2%，超市场预期的3.8%，大超前值2.8%，连续第11个月上升，并创下2011年以来新高。

中美通胀未来走势判断。从3月份的数据看，中美两国的CPI上涨压力不大，但PPI上涨压力较大。这与我们在2021年1月发表在枫瑞视点微信公众号的2021年A股投资展望中预测的中美两国CPI和PPI走势基本一致。我国今年前三季度在猪肉价格下跌的带动下，CPI不会有明显上涨。但美国因去年4、5月份的CPI为低基数，当月同比增速分别为0.3%和0.1%。因此，今年4、5月美国CPI有可能会超过2%。而PPI美国历史上看通常要在两年左右达到高点（表一）。我国今年PPI一般12个月达到顶点（表二），今年2季度有可能见到。

表一：我国PPI上行周期

数据来源：WIND，北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司

表二：美国PPI上行周期数据来源：WIND，北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司

数据来源：WIND，北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司

上周五美股大涨。经济复苏股引领上涨，恐慌指数下降到17。

Last Friday both A-share and HK stocks fell with contracted volume. Last week (the same below) major indexes in both A-share and HK market fell. In A-share 11 out of 28 sectors rose. Food and beverage, leisure service and electric equipment sector, which were group-holding stocks mainly from, fell the most. In HK market 5 out of 12 Hang Seng sectors rose with raw material, conglomerate and industrial sector rising the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 5.33 billion,down 46% from the previous week. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$7.04 billion,the second week of net inflow in a row.   

Both China and the US saw inflation pick up in March. China Consumer Price Index(CPI) in March rose to 0.4% year-over-year (yoy) versus fell 0.2% yoy in Feb. Porkprices fell 18.5% yoy in March compared with 13.2% in February. Industrial consumer goods' prices rose 1% yoy in March, the first time to rise yoy in one year due to rising prices of gasoline and diesel oil. China Producer Price Index (PPI) in March rose 4.4% yoy versus 1.7% in Feb, mainly due to the rising prices of commodities. The US CPI in March fell 0.4% month-on-month (mom) and rose 1.5%yoy. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, fell 0.1% mom and rose 2.1% yoy.The US PPI in March rose 4.2% yoy versus 2.7% yoy in February. The US March PPI growth rate yoy has reached the highest level since 2011. The USPPI hasincreased yoy for eleven months in a row. The trends of CPI and PPI in both China and the US are basically in line with what we predicted in “Investment outlook for A-share in 2021”. For both China and the US inflation in consumer would not be a major concern in 2021, although the US will see CPI growth rate rise above 2% yoy in April and May due to low base.  But producer inflation would continue to rise in both countries.

Both Dow and SP500 reached record high last Friday. Recovery stocks led the rally. VIX Index fell to 17 from above 20.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周四A股微涨，成交量有所放大。申万28个行业中，9个行业上涨，19个行业下跌。其中医药生物、食品饮料和有色金属行业涨幅领先，公用事业、房地产和建筑装饰跌幅领先。因一季度业绩不及预期，个别股票大幅下跌。港股周四大幅上涨，恒生综合行业指数中8个行业上涨，4个行业下跌。其中必需消费、原材料和金融行业领涨，能源、科技和电信行业领跌。北上资金净流出17亿人民币，较前一交易降低40%。贵州茅台和中国中免分别净流出14.7和5.7亿人民币。南下资金净流入47.3亿人民币，较前一交易日提升456%。腾讯控股股东减持股份，南下资金净流入50.6亿港币。

一季报不是真正的考验，二季报才是。因去年受疫情影响导致的低基数，今年1季报超预期的个股很多。但是超预期不见得是股票涨的理由，低于预期却一定是股票下跌的理由。近期一些抱团股2020年以及2021年一季报稍微有一点点低于预期都会遭到机构抛售。对于大幅低于预期的个股，股价在短时间内腰斩近期也比较常见。我们认为一季报仅仅反应过去发生的事情。真正重要的是1季报超预期的个股能否在经济恢复正常的基础上继续保持较好的盈利增速。而低于预期的个股能否证明1季报低于预期仅仅是一个短期现象。我们对去年2季度因与疫情相关而业绩较好的行业保持谨慎态度。这些股票今年2季度业绩很可能会低于市场预期。一方面去年疫情导致业绩高基数；另一方面，今年随着全球疫情得到控制，对抗疫相关的产品需求也将呈现下滑趋势，这些公司的收入增速和盈利能力都将受到考验。因此，一季报对上市公司而言并不是真正的考验，真正的考验在二季度，特别是去年表现较好的行业和个股。

史蒂芬·罗奇质疑拜登总统对华政策。前摩根斯坦利亚洲区主席指出尽管拜登上任之后逆转了特朗普的许多外交政策，但保留了漏洞百出的中美第一阶段贸易协定以及关税。洛奇建议采取冷静务实的举措处理中美关系。周四美国商务部宣布将7家中国超级计算公司纳入国家安全黑名单。中美关系真是“冰冻三尺，非一日之寒”。

美股上涨，标普500再创新高。上周初次申请失业救济人数为744,000，高于预期的694,000。10年期国债收益率从高位回落到1.6%，科技股上涨。

A-share rose slightly with increased volume on Thursday. 9 out of 28 sectors rose with biomedicine, food and beverage and non-ferrous metal leading the market. Some stocks fell sharply as their 1Q2021 earnings missed expectation. HKmarket rallied. 8 out of 12 Hang Seng sectors rose with consumer stables, raw material and financial sector leading. North-bound capital saw net outflow ofRMB 1.7 billion, down 40% from Wednesday. Kweichow Moutai and China Duty-free saw net outflow of RMB 1470 and 570 million respectively. Thursday marked the highest net outflow of north-bound capital for Kweichow Moutai. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$ 4.73 billion, up 456% from Wednesday. Tencent’s stake-holding company sell shares. South-bound capital net bought HK$5.06 billion of Tencent.   

1Q2021 earnings are not the real test. 2Q2021 earnings are. Due to the pandemic in1Q2020, many companies’ 1Q2021 earnings came in above expectation. Stock prices might not rise due to the better-than-expected earnings as the better performance was due to a low base. Yet for those whose 1Q2021 earnings missed,their stock prices fell sharply. 1Q2021 has passed. We believe that 2Q2021 is a real test for those companies whose earnings grew rapidly in 2Q2020 due to the pandemic. We are not optimistic regarding these companies’ earnings prospects in 2Q2021. Firstly, demand for pandemic-related products fell sharply this year as China controls the pandemic spread well. Secondly, the high-base last year would be a challenge for these companies. In any case it is key to grow earnings in a sustainable way for listed companies.

SP500 reached another record high. The initial jobless claim last week was 744,000,higher than 694,000 which market expected. Yet stocks rose with tech stocks rallying.10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.6%. Stephen Roach, a famous economist, expressed his concern on Sino-US relationship and suggested a level-headed approach from both sides.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周三A股探底回升，成交量有所放大。申万28个行业中，17个行业上涨，11个行业下跌。其中钢铁、综合和交通运输行业涨幅领先，食品饮料、电气设备和汽车跌幅领先。抱团股上涨几天后又大幅杀跌，主要原因应是基金净值回升导致赎回压力增大。财政部再提稳妥推进房地产税。在政策作用下，未来卖房炒股可能会很常见。港股节后首个交易日，恒生综合行业指数中6个行业上涨，6个行业下跌。原材料、地产建筑和工业领涨，科技、必需消费和金融领跌。北上资金净流出28.2亿人民币，其中贵州茅台和潍柴动力分别净流出14和9亿人民币；而三一重工净流入6亿人民币。南下资金净流入8.5亿人民币，中芯国际和华宏半导体分别净流入7.8亿和6亿港币。

摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙年报中写给投资者的信。如果说巴菲特在伯克希尔·哈撒韦年报中写给投资者的信是所有投资者必读的，那么摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙写给投资者的信一定是排在必读榜第二位的。昨天公布的这封长达66页的信中，杰米·戴蒙谈到了美国经济前景、股票估值以及中美之间竞争力的对比。他认为美国经济在疫苗、财政作用的刺激下会保持良好势头直到2023年。股票估值是有点贵的，但是反应了长期的经济繁荣的前景。而债券的估值很低是不太合理的，这里面有两个因素在发挥作用:一个是供给过大，一个是通胀有可能不是转瞬即逝的，像美联储预期的那样。在谈到中美关系时，他说现在中国人认为美国在科技、基础设施和教育方面正在丧失竞争力，美国是一个被政治、种族问题和收入不平等撕裂和导致严重瘫痪的国家，一个无法协调财政、货币、产业和监管政策以取得全国目标的国家。美国历史上面临过很多次挑战，他说这次可能会有所不同，但相信这些问题都是可以得到解决的。

美联储会议纪要再次确认其宽松立场。美联储发布了3月份的议息会议纪要，美联储认为经济虽有很明显的改善，但距离通胀和失业率的政策目标仍有很长的路要走。上周五公布的非农就业数据中，3月份的失业率为6%。如考虑到就业参与率等因素，实际失业率可能高达9%。另外，去年4、5月份的低基数可能会使通胀率暂时超过2%，同时，下半年随着疫情得到有效控制，消费重启，供应链上的约束也会暂时推高通胀率。受美联储宽松立场的推动，美股上涨，标普再次创出新高。

A-share bottomed out and fell slightly on Tuesday. 17 out of 28 sectors rosein with iron and steel, conglomerate and transportation leading the market. Group-holding stocks fell sharply, which was likely due to the redemption of mutual funds that hold these stocks. In HK market 6 out of 12 Hang Seng sectors rose with raw material, property and industrial leading the market. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 2.82 billion. Among it Kweichow Moutai and Weichai Power saw net outflow of RMB 1400 and 900 million respectively. Tuesday might be the day that Kweichow Moutai saw the biggest net outflow of north-bound capital in history. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$ 850 million.

What Jamie Dimon said in his annual letter to shareholders? Jamie Dimon, Chairman of JP Morgan said in his 66-page annual letter that he had little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the U.S. economy will likely boom and this boom could easily run into 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023. While Dimon called stock market valuations “quite high,” he said a multiyear boom may justify current levels. Conversely, in this boom scenario it’s hard to justify the price of U.S. debt (most people consider the 10-year bond as the key reference point for U.S. debt),” “This is because of two factors: first, the huge supply of debt that needs to be absorbed; and second, the not-unreasonable possibility that an increase in inflation will not be just temporary.” Dimon also discussed that Chinese viewed the US to be on a decline with domestic politics, racial and income inequality. The US was ever faced with a lot of challenges. This time might be different. But he believed that the issues are fixable.

SP500 reached another record high. Fed released FOMC minutes, which showed Fed’s commitment to easing policy. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周二A股微跌，成交清淡。申万28个行业中，21个行业上涨，7个行业下跌。其中国防军工、汽车和钢铁涨幅领先，休闲服务、家用电器和食品饮料跌幅领先。因港股市场休市，周二没有北上资金，市场成交量创下年初至今的新低。外围市场的大幅上涨对A股指数并没有产生重大影响，市场人气比较低迷，但部分中小盘个股走势较强，显示市场风格可能正在从大盘成长转向中小盘股。深交所晚间公告，康得新终止上市。注册制下退市节奏将会有较快提升，使资本市场得以充分发挥配置资源的功能。国际货币基金组织上调2021年全球经济增速从5.5%到6%，并将中、美和欧盟的经济增速分别上调到8.4%、6.4%和4%，并称全球经济2021年将会录得40年最大涨幅。

3月财新服务业采购经理人指数上升到54.3。这是去年12月以来的最高水平。2月份该数据为51.5。受访企业普遍反应3月份的经济活动和总体销售是年初以来升幅最大的。这应该是跟疫情在春节前后得到有效控制密切相关。新出口业务虽然仍处在收缩区间但是降幅已收窄。财新同时发布了3月综合制造业和服务业的采购经理人指数，从2月的51.7上升到53.1。

4月美股将会开启一波打脸上涨。4月初美股开启强劲反弹，道指、标普和纳斯达克指数在过去两个交易日分别上涨1.67%、2.62%和3.43%。Fundstrat Global Advisor的创始人汤姆李认为股市4月份将会持续上涨，而机构投资者在过去三个月一直卖出科技和成长股，而对去年遭受疫情严重影响的股票仅仅有少量配置，他们手里的现金达到2000亿美金。4月份会有更多的来自经济方面的惊喜。机构投资者可能不得不追涨，有望推动标普500达到4200点。但是之后股市可能会盘整消化快速上涨。

比尔黄事件有可能再度发生。瑞士信贷宣布因为比尔黄的对冲基金爆仓，该行将不得不承担47亿美金的损失。市场人士认为未来还会有这种爆仓事件发生，直到市场下跌，泡沫破裂，这种情况才可能不再发生。美股微跌。周二劳工部宣布截止2月底美国新增用工需求268,000，总计用工需求达到740万，好于市场预期。下周美股开始报1季度业绩。如果业绩超预期，则美股还有上涨的动力。

A-share fell slightly amid low trading volume. 21 out of 28 sectors rose.Military defense, and iron and steel sector rose the most while leisure service,home appliance and food and beverage fell the most. HK market closed for the Easter holiday.  Hence there was no Shanghai- and Shenzhen-connect trade. Trading volume reached the lowest level year-to-date. IMF raised global economic growth rate in 2021 from 5.5% to 6%.It also raised China growth rate in 2021 from 8.1% to 8.4%. It forecast that the US GDP will grow 6.4% and Euro region GDP will grow 4%. 2021 would see the fastest global economic growth rate in 40 years.

Caixin service Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in March rose to 54.3. This is the highest sinceDec. 2020. Feb. reading was 51.5. Firms reported the sharpest increases inactivity and overall sales in three months. New export business continued to contract but at a slower pace.  The higher-than-expected reading in March might be due to that pandemic was well under controlled after the Spring Festival. The service sector is more vulnerable under the pandemic. Caixin’s composite manufacturing and services PMI rose to 53.1 in March from 51.7 in Feb.

The US stock market could see a face-ripper rally. Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors said that institutional investors raised US$ 200 billion of cash since the start of the year by selling tech and growth names. But there might be more positive surprise from economy, which he predicted could push SP 500 to 4200 in April. This implies 3% upside from Tuesday’s close. Institutions might have to chase high. After that the stock market might consolidate the gains for sometime.

The US stocks fell slightly. Job openings at the end of Feb. reached 7.4 million, higher than expected. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.66%. Next week the US companies will report 1Q2021 earnings. If the earnings come in better than expected, then the stock market has more room to run. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

上周纳斯达克引领全球股指上涨。全球16个主要国家和地区指数（包括主要发达国家和金砖五国以及亚洲主要国家和地区）除英国富时指数微跌外均上涨。从各国经济领先指标看，大多超出市场预期。美国3月供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）达到1983年12月以来的新高，达到64.2。IHS Markit数据显示，经季节调整后，欧元区今年3月季调后制造业PMI终值意外略上修，由62.4调高至62.5，为1997年6月有纪录以来最高水平，且已连续9个月扩张。相比之下，虽然我国3月官方制造业PMI略超预期，但财新制造业PMI意外下跌到去年5月份的水平，尽管仍在扩张区间。反应我国经济复苏的动能可能略显不足。

反弹行情坚守低估值。上周A股和港股均反弹。A股申万28个行业中23个上涨，食品饮料、休闲服务和电子行业涨幅领先，而传媒、非银金融和商业贸易领跌。港股上周因受难节只有四个交易日，恒生12个综合行业中2个下跌，分别为必需消费和公用事业，医疗保健、科技和工业涨幅领先。我们认为受经济景气度带动，A股和港股有望继续反弹，但不易对反弹过于乐观。首先，核心资产的估值远远没有达到合理的水平。另外，从上周发布的2020年业绩看，有些公司的业绩稍微有一点低于预期，就会遭到市场抛售，也反应市场对核心资产的风险偏好降低。其次，宏观经济好转带动美国国债收益率继续上行。市场目前预期到1.8-2%的水平。尽管国债收益率上行最陡峭的阶段已经过去，但是，未来如果上行幅度超出预期，对高估值个股仍有较大压力。我们仍然认为低估值个股会有较好表现，包括银行、周期以及受益经济复苏的板块。从这个角度而言，我们认为港股将会比A股有更好的表现。主要原因是这些低估值股票在港股的估值更低，而且港股投资者更关注盈利恢复情况。而随着全球经济复苏，这些板块的盈利将会逐季增长。低估值和盈利持续增长的股票将会在今年占据优势地位。

美国3月非农就业人数大超预期。受到服务业强劲复苏的带动，美国3月非农就业达到916,000，这是2020年8月以来的最高水平，远远高于市场预期的675,000。失业率也下降到6%。受这一消息带动，美股大涨，道指和标普均创出历史新高，10年期美债收益率保持在1.71%。美联储面临采取紧缩措施的压力。

Nasdaq led the global stock market rally last week. Among global 16 major indexes including major developed countries and BRICs as well as major Asian stock markets, only FTSE Index in the UK fell slightly last week. All of the other stock markets rose boosted by better-than-expected economic data. The US ISM manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index （PMI） in March came in as 64.2, the highest since Dec. 1983. IHS Markit PMI for Europe in March was adjusted from the initial reading of 62.4 up to 62.5, the highest since June 1997. European PMI has been above the threshold 50 for nine months in a row. China’s official manufacturing PMI in March was also above expectation. Yet Caixin PMI, which mainly measures the situation of the middle- to small-scale enterprises, fell to the level of last May but maintained above 50, implying that China’s economy probably doesn’t rebound as strongly as expected.

Stick to low-valued stocks in rebounding stage.Last week both A-share and HK stock market rebounded after continuously falling for weeks. We believe that low-valued stocks would be good choices in market rebounding. Firstly, the so-called core assets’ valuation is still at hefty levels. Some stocks’ prices fell sharply recently as their 2020 earnings missed to some extent, reflecting that market has become picky for these core assets. Secondly, the US 10-year Treasury yield would continue to rise as economy recovers quickly. Market expects it to reach 1.8-2% in 2021.Further increase of the Treasury yield would still weigh on the high-valued stocks. We believe that HK stocks would perform better than A-share due to low valuation and strong earnings growth.

The non-farm payroll in March was far better than expected.DOW and SP500 reached record high. Fed is under pressureto take back liquidity as economy is on good course of recovery and inflation is going up. Market implies that the first rate hike would be at the end of 2023 rather than 2024, as guided by the Fed. Moreover, before Fed raises interest rate, it would cut back on bond purchasing scale first. Market expects that Fed would begin to taper in the 2nd half of this year. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

周四A股和港股均上涨。A股申万28个行业中25个上涨，比周三增加14个，其中钢铁、休闲服务和家用电器涨幅领先，银行、公用事业和采掘下跌。沪深股通因港股周五受难节休市暂停。A股成交量再次回到不足7000亿人民币。港股12个行业中10个上涨，科技、医药和消费行业领涨，公用事业和地产下跌。周四是港股通节前最后一个交易日。南下资金连续第五天净流入，金额为40.5亿港币，较前一交易日提升311%。央行在国新办新闻发布会上表示我国货币政策不受美国影响，未来我国货币政策要稳字当头，保持人民币币值对内和对外的稳定。

3月财新PMI低于预期。3月财新PMI为50.6%，环比下跌0.3个百分点，连续4个月放缓。尽管仍然处在扩张区间，但是已经回到2020年5月份的水平。受外需恢复影响，新出口订单2021年来首次回到扩张区间。3月购进价格指数录得2017年12月以来最高值。受成本上升推动，出厂价格指数升至2016年12月以来最高值。受访企业表示，价格上涨抑制了需求的进一步恢复。展望未来一年，制造业企业普遍相信产出将会继续增长，乐观度较2月略有放缓，但仍为过去七年以来的较高水平。

美股未来大幅上涨的可能性降低。1季度道指、标普和纳斯达克指数分别上涨7.7%、5.8%和2.7%。1季度大幅上涨之后，未来美股涨幅有限。首先，经济改善的斜率放缓。尽管美国经济仍在恢复，但未来可能会看到个人收入、采购经理人指数以及GDP数据改善幅度放缓。其次，股市估值为22倍的动态市盈率，处在历史较高水平。最后，盈利增速难超预期。美国上市公司的收入增速一般是GDP增速的两倍。2021年美国经济增长预计在7%，则上市公司的收入预计增长14%。目前市场预期的收入增速为9%。较高的收入增速也意味着较高的盈利增速，股票也将会持续上涨。但是，盈利上调的广度（即上调盈利的公司数）已经达到2010和2018年的最高点。前两次高点之后，下调盈利的公司家数迅速增加，抑制了股市整体走势。

美股上涨，标普首次站上4000点。上周首次申请失业救济人数高于市场预期。美国3月ISM制造业PMI录得64.7，创1983年12月以来新高。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Thursday. 25 out of 28 sectors rosein A-share with iron and steel, leisure service and home appliance leading the market. Bank, mining and utilities sector fell. Trading volume fell to below RMB700 billion for the second time year to date. 10 out of 12 sectors in HK rose.Tech, healthcare and consumption sector rose the most. Utilities and property sector fell. Shanghai- and Shenzhen-connect trading halted as HK market closes on Good Friday. South-bound capital net inflow was HK$ 4.05 billion, the fifth-day net inflow in a row.  

March Caixin PMI came in below expectation. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in March dropped to 50.6 last month — the lowest level since April 2020 — from February’s 50.9, missing analyst expectations for an uptick to 51.3. New order index rose above 50, the threshold for expansion and contraction, for the first time in 2021 as overseas demand picked up. Purchasing price index and producer price index rose to their highest level since Dec 2017 and Dec 2016 respectively. Yet firms remained strongly optimistic about the business outlook over the next year due to hopes of an end to the pandemic, a rebound in overseas demand and plans to expand capacity, the survey showed.

The upside potential might be limited for the US stocks. DOW, SP500 and Nasdaq rose 7.7%, 5.8% and 2.7% respectively. Significant gains are less likely going forward. Chief US equity strategist of Morgan Stanley believed that the economy will likely see slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP. Moreover, SP 500 trades at 22x price-to-earnings of 2021,which is at the high levels in history. Market is most likely to bounce up and down at current levels.

The US stocks rallied. ISM manufacturing PMI in March came in at 64.7, the highest since Dec. 1983.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。