外资怎么看中国最近的政策举措。我们总结下来,老外看中国政策分为两派:一派是认为中国政府出台的政策举措是帮助中国老百姓改善生活质量,不论是对教配行业还是对互联网平台的打击;一派认为中国的政策会扩散到其他行业,在中国市场投资的不确定性大幅提高。截止上周,香港市场并没有大规模资金外流的迹象。但是,对一些长期投资的共同基金,他们的决策过程会相对较长,需要几周的时间,最终也许会有撤出的。对中国政策持正面态度的外资认为中国政府非常清楚私营企业在中国经济中的作用。私营企业提供了80%的就业岗位,贡献了80%的科技和创新。因此,中国政府会积极促进私营经济的发展。对教培和互联网平台的打击,是为了帮助孩子减轻学业负担,促进公平公正。对一些互联网大公司的打压并不是打击这些公司本身,而是对那些试图在政治上施加影响力的商业领导者。这种情况在欧美是很普遍的,但是中国不希望跟随欧美的老路。对于美国限制对中国上市公司的投资,该投资人认为美国投资人占中国A股和香港市场总市值的比例不到3%。中国的资本市场没有美国投资人也没有大不了的。对于有些人批评中国政府对采取的政策举措不透明,投资人认为中国政府说到做到,并且非常具体和公开。当前,中国互联网公司的市盈率是全球同业70%,市值是1/10到1/3,意味着估值中隐含的风险溢价非常高。由于政府对数据的管控,这些互联网公司可能无法使数据转化为利润,所以垄断地位不能帮他们带来垄断利润。其实对互联网公司最大的风险是监管还没有发生,而中国互联网公司监管已经发生了,意味着风险已经释放了。
A股缩量下跌,港股放量下跌。A股和港股早盘大幅下跌,随后探底回升。因官媒对网络游戏的抨击,A股和港股的网游股大跌。前期热门股包括芯片、新能源等板块大幅下挫。因疫情扩散,医药行业领涨两市。美股大涨,10年期国债收益率探底回升,银行和工业板块领涨。虽然美国疫情新增病例已经超过今年4月份的水平,但投资人对此似乎并不担心。因疫苗发生作用,此次住院人数并未随新增病例数增加而增加。投资人预期2、3周之后美国新增病例将会趋缓。
How international investors view China capital market? They fall into two types. One type is still optimistic about China’s stock market and believes that the policies that targeted after-school tutoring sector and internet giants are to help relieve kids’ burden and promote fairness and justice. The other type thinks that these policies aroused uncertainties and doubt that other sectors would be targeted by policy. By the end of last week there was no sign that capital exited HK stock market. Yet mutual funds might take weeks to make decisions. Some of them might exit HK market at last. But this should not be a worry. A long-term Asia investor who fell into the first type thought that China knows well that private businesses contribute 80% of the employment and the same amount of new technology and innovation. So the policies are definitely not to target these private enterprises but those industrialists and business leaders who tried to parlay commercial success into political influence. As to the US might restrict investing in China companies, the investor said that US investors account for less than 3% of China and HK market cap combined. China’s markets can survive without the US. Currently the big internet giants in China are valued at 30% discount to their global peers in terms of price-to-earnings ratio and one third or one tenth of their global peers in terms of market cap. This implies that risk premium is pretty high. And for internet companies the biggest risk is actually that supervision risk is looming. But for Chinese internet companies the risk has turned into reality. Hence, it might be time to think about buying into these stocks.
A-share fell with contracted volume and HK stocks fell with big trading volume. The criticize from official media to the gaming companies caused gaming stocks to fall sharply in both A-share and HK market. The US stocks rallied as 10-year treasury yield bottomed up. Bank and industrial sector led the rally. Investors seem not to be concerned about the surge of new cases as hospitalization rates remained low.
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