美国国债收益率走低。美国10年期国债收益率本周三短暂下跌到了1.13%，周四又回到了1.2%的水平，创下六个月以来的新低，因为大量资金流入国债市场。截止本周二，国债收益率从3月31日的高点1.74%下跌了57个基点达到1.17%，但是与去年底相比仍上升26个基点。资金狂热地涌入债券市场可以看做是一个反向指标，即债券收益率的下跌即将结束。过去几个月债券收益率下跌反应的是经济放缓。同时，Delta变种也助推了债券收益率的下跌。但因当前美国通胀水平高达6%，收益率略高于1%的债券其实没有任何投资价值。另外，当债券收益率上涨时，即使10个基点的上涨，债券的本金也会遭受较大损失，足以抹掉利息的收入。当前对国债收益率的走向有很多分歧。有分析师认为30年期的国债收益率可能从当前的1.85%下降到1.2%，这将会产生24.1%的资本增值收益。分析师认为，债券收益率没有如预期上涨，主要因为市场预期他们上涨的人太多了，而真理往往掌握在少数人手中。我们在这次也许不一样中分析了美国10年期国债收益率的实际和名义利率与通胀的关系。我们判断由于通胀的持续上升，即使名义利率上涨，实际利率作为名义利率和通胀的差值，还是会往下走。但现实是10年期国债收益率的名义利率持续下跌，而通胀保持在较高水平，导致实际收益率一直处在较低水平。这也意味着当下黄金有很好的基本面支撑。如美联储实施缩减购债规模，名义利率将会抬升。但如果抬升幅度不大，而通胀仍在高位，则实际利率仍然保持在较低水平。我们在美联储能退出宽松货币政策吗？一文中分析过，因美国巨额债务，且长期经济增速保持在2-3%的水平，其国债收益率即使上升，幅度也不会很大，2%有可能是极限水平。

A股和港股均下跌，美股涨跌不一。周四A股和港股再度下跌，港股科技股领跌。快手接近95%的股份在六个月限售期结束后解禁，造成股价大跌15%，带动恒生科技指数下跌2.1%。A股的热门板块光伏、锂电池和芯片均有所调整，其中一些板块已经过热，风险较大。美股上涨，上周首次申请失业救济人数符合预期。市场关注周五发布的7月份非农就业数据。如果超出市场预期，则可能促使美联储加快缩减债券购买规模的步伐。

The fall of the US 10-year treasury yield might come to an end. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 1.2% on Thursday, continuing a volatile stretchof trading for the benchmark measure. The yield briefly dipped below 1.13% on Wednesday before bouncing back in late morning trading. Until Tuesday when the yield fell to 1.17%, it dropped 57 basis point since the high on March 31stwhen it reached 1.74% but still rose 26 basis point from the end of last year.The fall of the treasury yield was mainly driven by the influx of capital. The fevered buying is a contrarian indicator of rising risk in bonds. Other reasons include economy slowing down and the Delta variant. Also there are so many investors who expect the yield to rise, which might be another reason that it went the other way. Yet with inflation at 6% bond offers no investment value. Also if yield goes up by 10 basis point the price decline would totally wipe out all of the interestincome for a whole year. We have analyzed nominal treasury yield and real treasury yield in “It might be different this time ” and pointed out the real treasury yield would fall if inflation rises more than nominal treasury yield.It turns out that the real treasury yield went down as nominal treasury yield fell with inflation at a high level. But the treasury yield, even if it could go up, can not rise too much. The reason lies in the heavy debt burden of the US government. With close to US$ 30 trillion debt the US cannot afford to pay for interest rate when it reaches above 2%. So we expect the rising yield but do not expect it rise too much.

A-share and HK stocks fell while the US stocks rallied. Kuaishou Technology is faced with close to 95% of its shares unlocked. Its stock price fell 15% and causes Hang Seng Technology Index to fall more than 2%. The hot sectors including chips, new energy and photovoltaic sector corrected with some sectors over-crowded and in bubbles. Last week the initial jobless claim came in line with expectation. Market pays a close attention to the non-farm payroll to be released on Friday. This data could determine the tapering timing of the Fed. The US stocks rallied with recovery stocks rising the most.

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