价值就在这里。彼得·林奇在《战胜华尔街》中写道：在选择投资领域时，我总是青睐那些萧条的而不是繁荣的产业。在一个即使有增长也极为缓慢的萧条产业中，弱者出局而幸存者得到更大的市场份额。如果一家公司在一个停滞不前的市场上获得的份额持续增加，而另一家公司则在一个激动人心的市场上为避免份额的减少而竭力挣扎，那么前者的境况无疑要比后者好得多。周一，地产和银行等传统板块大幅上涨。这些板块之前大幅调整，很多投资人认为这些板块的发展前景暗淡，不具有投资价值，因此弃之如敝履。其实这些板块的估值已经达到历史最低点。比如房地产板块，其静态市盈率估值处在2000年以来的0.18%的分位，意味着当前时点估值是20年最低。房地产板块的市场集中度很低。“三条红线”政策其实是帮助地产行业去产能，而大房企的竞争优势在政策高压下反而能够凸显，有利于他们提升市场份额。银行板块作为一个高杠杆行业，以市净率估值更合理。而它的静态市净率也处在2000年以来0.18%的分位，跟地产板块一样，处在20年来的最低点。房地产公司的股东近期一直在出手增持，认为股价很便宜，这也说明房地产公司的盈利是有保证的，不会大幅下滑。而银行板块因为去年的让利实体造成了业绩的低基数，今年上半年的业绩应该会比较靓丽。估值处在历史底部以及基本面有保证，银行和房地产的股票大概率已经见底。彼得·林奇的话翻译过来就是再暗淡的行业也会有胜出者，而这些夕阳行业的胜出者远比朝阳行业的落伍者更值得投资。对于这些低估的板块，套用一句当下流行的话：买与不买，价值都在这里。

A股和港股上涨。中国7月的消费者价格指数和生产者价格指数的同比增速均超出市场预期。因国家收储，猪肉价格止跌回升；同时，暑期各种服务类价格上涨带动CPI涨幅超预期。PPI价格由大宗商品价格带动超预期。PPI和CPI剪刀差继续扩大，反应下游利润率有可能进一步受到压制。美股中的复苏股受到新冠疫情加剧的影响而回落，带动标普500和道指下跌，纳指上涨。市场等待美国7月份的通胀数据，CPI和PPI将分别在本周三和周四发布。

There is investment value in property and bank sector. Peter Lynch wrote in his famous book “Beat the street” that  he prefers to buy those companies in declining sectors rather than in promisingsectors. The reason is that those companies that can win more market share in a declining sector usually perform better in stock market than those in a promising sector face with cutthroat competition. Both property and bank sector belong to declining sectors. Investors do not want to invest in these two sectors as their growth prospects seem to be bleak. Yet their valuation is at a 20-year low level. Property sector is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) of 7.15x, which is at 0.36% percentile from 2000 after Monday’s rally. Bank sector is a leveraged sector. Hence, price-to-book value is (PB) appropriate for this sector. Its TTW PB is valued at 0.64x, which put it at 0.18% percentile from 2000. It was reported that some property companies bought their stocks as they deemed their stocks very cheap. Hence, the market concernabout these companies’ earnings growth in 2021 should be alleviated to a great extent. Banks delivered a lackluster earnings growth in 2020 due to that they were required to give out part of their profits to the industrial enterprises.So this year their earnings growth should be stronger given a low base in 2020.Investing in the leading players in both property and bank sector is actuallyto invest in good companies at bargain prices. You might not like this kind of investment.But there is deep value.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Both consumer priceindex (CPI) and Producer price index (PPI) in July in China came in higher than expected. The higher CPI was driven by service prices while PPI was driven by commodity prices. CPI and PPI divergence widened in July, implying that downstream and manufacturing firms would be faced with margin pressure. COVID-19 pandemic is worsening in the US, dragging down those recovery stocks. DOW andSP500 fell while Nasdaq rose. Market is waiting for CPI and PPI to come out on coming Wednesday and Thursday. 

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