时代变了。1958年夏天，美国长期国债收益率首次明显超过了普通股的股息收益率。根据历史经验，股票收益率接近债券收益率的时候，通常市场将大幅下跌。1891年、1907年和1929年的股市崩盘都证实了这一点。因此，投资人视股票的长期股息收益率高于债券收益率为天经地义的事情，因为股票的风险高于债券，因此股票的股息收益率也应该高于债券的收益率。一旦股票的价格过高使得股息收益率低于债券收益率，抛售股票的时机就到了。但是这次股票的表现并未如预期那样大幅下跌。反而在股票收益率跌至债券收益率下方之后的12个月，股市一路飙升，并且一直上涨到20世纪60年代初。估值指标失灵了的根本原因是股票能够对冲通货膨胀，而债券则没有这个功能。60多年前发生的事情让人警醒：当时代变化的时候，原有的规则就全都不适用了。如果还墨守成规，就会错失好的投资机会，并很有可能遭受投资损失。今天在股票市场中，也有很多改变在发生，有很多都是历史性的。比如中美的消费者价格指数之差是历史高点，比如今年发达国家的经济增速和通货膨胀率都可能是40年来最高的水平，比如百年未有之大变局下的经济、社会、国际地缘政治关系等方方面面的改变。作为投资人，我们要时刻警醒自己，因为一句“大人，时代变了”就可能把我们之前坚信的完全颠倒过来，使“风口”变成“刀口”，使投资造成重大损失。投资要勇立潮头，需要不断的学习和思考，需要积极发现时代变迁中的各种机会和风险，需要迅速的调整和改变思维方式。

A股和港股上涨。白酒板块大幅上涨，市场预期中秋白酒消费保持平稳。港股科技指数大幅上涨，美团和腾讯分别上涨8%和5%以上。新能源板块大幅调整，盐湖股份复牌上涨300%以上，分流了该板块的资金。美参议院通过1万亿美元的基建法案，在卡特彼勒的上涨推动下道指和标普创出新高。国债收益率上涨，FAANG股票下跌推动纳指下跌。世卫组织专家认为新冠疫情远没有到结束的时候。全球15%的人口接种了新冠疫苗。只有世界上所有国家都接种疫苗，新的毒株才不会出现。Delta病毒具有来的快、去的也快的特征，从印度和英国的情况看新增病例数都呈倒V字型。

It would be different times. In summer of 1958 the dividend yield of stocks was higher than bond yield. This provoked market concerns. According to what happened previously every time when stock yield was higher than bond’s yield the stock market would crash as seen in 1891, 1907 and 1929. The reason was because stocks were riskier than bonds they should offer higher yield. But this time things changed. Twelve months after the stock yield came in lower than bond yield stock began to rise until the early of 1960’s. This is because stock is a good tool to defend inflation while bond does not have this function. What happened 60 years ago sounds alarm for investors. When times turns to a new page, the previous rules do not work at all. Investors should change their mindset quickly to adjust to the new world. Otherwise, they might miss good investment opportunities or even make big losses. Nowadays there are a lot of things changing. For example: the divergence between China and the US CPI year-on-year growth rate in July could reach the largest ever. The inflation and GDP growth rate in the developed nations could be the highest in 40 years.Also there are a lot of things changed whether in domestic economy, society and the internaitonal geopolitics as the world is experiencing the changes never happened in a century. Investors should remain alert and humble to the market and try to find opportunities in a changing world.

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Liquor sector rallied.Yet north-bound capital was net outflow in liquor sector. New energy sector fell due to that Qinghai Salt Lake resumed trading and absorbed capital from other stocks in the sector. Tech stocks rebounded strongly in HK market with Meituan and Tencent rising 8% and 5% respectively.  Senate passed US$ 1 trillion infrastructure bill. Caterpillar rose and pushed DOW and SP500 to record high. The 10-year treasury yield rose and FAANG stocks fell across the board. An expert from WHO said that COVID-19 pandemic was closer to the beginning than to the ending. 15% of world population got vaccinated so far. The new variant would not emerge only when all of the 200+ countries in the world get vaccinated.

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