别人家的股市。今年美股标普500、道指和纳斯达克指数上涨幅度分别为18.4%、15.9%和14.6%，位列全球16个主要国家和地区股市(包括主要发达和发展中国家以及亚洲主要市场)涨幅榜的第3、第5和第9名。美股迭创新高，主要原因是企业盈利强劲以及流动性充裕。90%的美股上市公司发布了2季度，其中88%的企业盈利增速超预期。2季度总体上市公司盈利增速有望同比上涨92.9%。美股虽迭创新高，但却不如法国股市。法国CAC40指数年初至今上涨23.5%，是全球表现最好的股指。法国股市可以看成一个奢侈品股市。路易威登和爱马仕是主要成分股，年初至今股价分别上涨了38%和55%。路易威登和爱马仕包包今年以来涨价不断。奢侈品价格上涨，一方面是因为流动性充裕。欧央行在7月议息会议上修改了利率前瞻指引，启用“对称性”通胀目标，允许通胀在过渡期内略高于2%。欧央行行长拉加德强调会吸取欧债危机的教训，不会过早收紧货币政策。欧央行的“对称性”目标主要基于历史数据，这使得欧央行面对短期通胀超调可以有充足的理由维持宽松，在操作空间上更加灵活。充裕流动性下，消费者手中现金充足，奢侈品购买需求旺盛。另一方面受到疫情影响，奢侈品原料供应、人工等都不足，导致供应受限。在此情况下，奢侈品价格一路上涨，推动法国股市遥遥领先全球其他国家和地区股市。看完别人家的股市，回到我国的资本市场。年初以来，恒生指数下跌2.6%，是全球主要国家和地区中唯一下跌的股市；而深成指和上证指数分别上涨3% 和1.5%，分别位于全球16个主要国家和地区股市涨幅榜的第12和15名。A股和港股表现落后于全球其他主要国家和地区指数，一是因为中国流动性收紧早于发达国家。去年10月份货币供应量增速就已经拐头向下。另一方面，我国经济景气指标在今年3月份达到顶点，经济开始下行。港股市场因近期遭到政策冲击而调整。但未来A股和港股应有机会。刚发布的7月份货币供应量虽低于预期，但货币政策应不会更紧，而财政政策也将积极起来。所以，对自己家的股市也不应过分悲观。

A股和港股下跌。主要受周三公布的社融数据不及预期影响。美股上涨，7月生产者价格指数同比涨幅7.8%，为2010年以来最高水平。

Other people’s stock markets. Year-to-date the US stock market reached one record high after another, supported by strong earnings growth and abundant liquidity.Listed companies are expected to deliver 92.9% year-on-year earnings growth in 2nd quarter 2021. Year-to-date SP500, DOW and Nasdaq rose 18.4%, 15.9% and 14.6% respectively. Among the 16 global major indexes they were ranked at the third,fifth and ninth in terms of gains. Yet the best performing market is CAC40 of France.It rose 23.5% year-to-date, boosted by luxury brands including LVMH and Hermes.LVMH and Hermes saw their stock price rise 38% and 55%. Their bags’ prices increased quite a lot in 2021. On one hand liquidity is abundant. The European Central Bank (ECB) signaled a dovish tone in its monetary policy meeting in July. Lagarde, the chairwoman of the bank, said that ECB would not make the same mistake in Euro-debt crises in 2011, when it withdrew supporting policies earlier and caused the European economy to dip again. Consumers have a lot of money on hands due to the easy monetary policy, boosting demand for luxury goods.On the other hand due to the pandemic both raw materials and labor were in shortage. The supply is hence limited. As a result, luxury brands raised their product prices this year again and again. As a comparison, Hang Seng Index fell 2.6% year-to-date and was the only stock index that fell among the 16 global indexes.Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index rose 3% and 1.5% respectively,ranked at 13th and 15th among the 16 indexes. That both A-share and HK stock market lagged behind major indexes in the world is mainly because China took back liquidity earlier than any other country in the world. Money supply witnessed turning point in last October. And economy peaked out in March 2021 as seen from business climate index. However, both monetary and fiscal policy would become more proactive to deal with the falling economy. Investors should become optimistic about the stock market.

The US stocks rose again. July PPI in the US came in higher than expected. 

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