港股7月跌幅巨大。港股2021年7月份的下跌是创纪录的。恒生指数和恒生国企指数的跌幅分别为9.9%和13.4%，分别创出2018年10月和2016年1月以来最大月度幅。恒生科技指数当月下跌16.85%，创下该指数自去年7月推出以来的最大月度跌幅。2019年到2020年，港股一方面遭遇了史无前例的社会动荡，另一方面，疫情对香港经济雪上加霜。港股在此期间全球表现落后，2020年大幅跑输A股。2021年初，港股的低估值吸引了国内投资者纷纷南下。但随着春节过后，A股抱团股的大幅下跌以及港府加征印花税，港股再度陷入萎靡。而7月以来政府推出的一系列旨在营造公平社会环境的举措对港股的互联网和教育板块造成重大利空。港股可谓一泻千里。而南下资金也创出了自开通以来连续数日净流出的记录。当前，无论恒生指数还是国企指数估值都处在历史较低水平。恒生指数的静态市净率7月底估值为1.14倍，处在2002年以来18.3%的分位。国企指数的静态市净率为1.2倍，为2002年以来的39.4%的分位。我们认为中国3、4季度经济下行对港股市场仍会有一定的压力，但是另一方面，国内的宽松财政和货币政策也会对市场提供支撑。当下在港股市场可以买什么呢？我们总结了三类可投资的标的：一是价值股，包括银行地产，估值很低，股息率很高，下行风险小；二是制造业成长股，包括新能源、电子及传统制造业的龙头企业，他们中很多具有全球竞争力；三是消费医药长线股，消费中的部分板块竞争格局明确，医药中的一些创新药也被证明具有较强竞争力，可以在估值合理的情况下买入并长期持有。国际投资人近期因政策风险而采取观望态度，但一旦确定中国基本的开放政策不变，政策风险降低后就应该回来。港股市场因受到政治经济等诸多因素的影响，短期获得投资收益概率不大。最好的办法就是在低位买进，比如当前时点，然后做时间的朋友。当然，这非常考验投资者的耐心。

上周全球股市涨跌不一。中国台湾和韩国跌幅居前，而印度、俄罗斯和上证指数涨幅居前。美国国债收益率在Taper预期推动下上升，全球股市成长股回落，价值和周期股上涨。

How to pick stocks in HK market？HK market crashed in July. Hang Seng Index tumbled 9.9% and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 13.6%, the worst month of performance from Oct. 2018 and Jan. 2016 respectively. Hang Seng Index is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-book (TTW PB) 1.1x while China Enterprises Index is valued at TTW PB 1.2x, which is at 18% and 39% percentile from 2002 respectively. HK market performance was poor due to political turmoil in 2019 and COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In 2021 it enjoyed a short period of rally as south-bound capital flushed in due to its low valuation. But this did not last long as after Chinese New Year festival group-holding stocks fell sharply in A-share and HK market also suffered. Big tech stocks in HK were group-holding stocks as well. Then HK government announced that it would raise stamp duty for stock trading at the end of February. HK market tumbled and then bounced up and down until July when policies targeted at after-school tutoring and big tech firms were brought up. HK market would get support in 3Q and 4Q2021 as China’s monetary and fiscal policy would become more accommodative. The current valuation has partly priced in the slowdown of China’s economy. We suggest three ways to invest in HK market. The first is to invest in those value stocks in financial and property sector. Stocks in these sectors do not deliver very strong earnings growth yet offer sizeable dividend yields. The second is to invest in those leading players in new energy, electronic and traditional manufacturing sector. Some companies in these sectors enjoy competitive advantages in the world. The last but not the least is to invest in consumption and healthcare sector. Competitive landscape is beneficial for market leaders in these sectors. In short now it might be a good time to buy HK stocks and be a friend of time.

Last week both A-share and HK market rebounded. The US 10-year treasury yield went up pushed by Taper expectation. Growth stocks fell while value and cyclical stocks rose worldwide.

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