这个夏天有点凉。7月份的经济数据全面低于预期。工业增加值和社会消费品零售总额同比增速分别为6.4%和8.5%，预期为7.9%和11.6%。1-7月固定资产投资累计同比增速为10.3%，预期为11.4%；出口同比增速为19.3%，预期为20.8%。同时，对比6月份，所有数据呈现下滑态势。六月份上述四个数据分别为8.3%、12.1%、12.6%和32.2%。之前发布的采购经理人指数和社融增速均指向7月经济会回落。但是，回落幅度超出市场预期。这一方面与Delta病毒和水灾有紧密关系。另一方面，对教培行业的打击也对消费产生不利影响。自教培新规出台后，不断有教培机构倒闭、裁员的报道。教培行业有1000万从业人员，该行业还带动商业租赁、餐饮娱乐等上下游行业。因此，对经济的影响不容小觑。7月数据显示经济增速已处在快速下滑中，未来能否尽早企稳一方面取决于疫情的控制程度以及灾后重建力度，另一方面，取决于支持性政策何时出台。周一，国常会开会讨论经济问题，提出要加强跨周期调节，保持经济运行在合理区间。据媒体报道，本周地方债发行将达到3700亿人民币，创下今年周度发行的高峰。这些地方债将会促进今年下半年和明年年初的基建投资。同时，6月份的贷款加权平均利率也在历史上首次下跌到5%以下，达到4.93%，显示宽信用就在路上。未来财政政策和货币政策将变得更加积极，从而对经济和股市提供支撑。8月13日晚公布数据显示美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得70.2，据较7月份下降了13.5%，仅有的两次更大降幅发生在2020年4月经济关闭期间(-19.4%)和2008年10月大衰退最严重时期(-18.1%)。8月份信心指数大幅下滑主要因为美国消费者担忧疫情对经济增长形成扰动。消费占美国GDP80%左右，因此美国经济未来也将面临下行风险。Delta病毒让全球同此凉热。

周一A股和港股表现疲弱。因经济数据低于预期，有色金属板块在A股和港股均跌幅居前。港股科技板块跌幅也较大，腾讯、美团等大型科网股再次大幅下跌。有媒体报道对大型科网股的所得税优惠已取消。美股道指和标普500再创新高，国债收益率下降。截止周一，标普500已经从2020年3月23日的最低点上涨了一倍。得益于货币和财政政策支持，美国经济创下二战后最快速的复苏。

The economy is cooling down due to Delta variant worldwide. China’s economic data in July came in much lower than expected.Industrial value-added and retail sales in July rose 6.4% and 8.5% year-on-year(yoy) respectively versus 7.9% and 11.6% expected. Fixed asset investment fromJan. to July rose 10.3% yoy versus 11.4% expected. Export grew 19.3% yoy versus 20.3% expected. Also compared with June economic data slowed down across the board. The slowdown was both due to the pandemic and flood in some parts of China. Moreover, new regulations on after-school tutoring also impacted consumption.It is estimated that 10 million people work in after-school tutoring sector.The upstream of tutoring sector is commercial real estate and downstream is catering and other related service sector. After the new regulations came out in July, some training companies went bankruptcy or cut off employment. This would work against overall consumption. When the economy would stabilize depends on when the pandemic can be well-controlled as well as the reconstruction of flooded area. It also depends on whether supporting policy measures can come out timely. It was reported that composite loan interest rate came down to historical low in June to 4.93%. This signals that the easing credit might be right on the way. In addition, special purpose debt issued by local government this week would reach the highest weekly level in 2021. Special purpose debt would support infrastructure investment in 2H2021 and early 2022. We believe these policies would also support stock markets. Due to Delta variant Michigan consumer confidence index in August came down to 70.2, one of the largest monthly drop in history. As consumption makes up 80% of the US GDP, the US economy would also face headwind from the fast spread of Delta variant.

Both A-share and HK market corrected. Due to the weaker-than-expected economic data raw material sector fell sharply. DOW and SP500 rose while Nasdaq fell slightly. Until Monday SP500 doubled from its low on March 23rd,2020. 

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