市场在告诉我们什么？周二A股和港股均泥沙俱下。A股28个行业全部下跌，但是低估值板块跌幅较少，包括房地产、建筑材料和交通运输跌幅在0.2-0.4%。而高估值板块包括休闲服务、食品饮料和医药生物跌幅在3.6-4.8%。港股12个行业均下跌，其中跌幅较少的是金融和综合业，跌幅较大的是科技和原材料行业。市场对周二的下跌有各种猜测，其一是央行周二在7000亿中期便利借贷到期后只续作了6000亿，外加100亿的逆回购。这说明央行在7月15日的降准只是置换到期的中期借贷便利，并不是宽松的开始。这与市场预期的货币宽松有所不同，叠加周一发布的经济数据全面低于预期，市场因此大跌。当然中美关系以及媒体报道的严查市场黑嘴等消息也对市场构成冲击。但是这些就是市场大跌的理由吗？我们认为根本原因还是一些板块和个股缺乏安全边际。所谓安全边际，就是买入的股票价格要与其内在价值有一定的差值，这个差值就是安全边际。安全边际大，所能承受的股价下跌的风险也较大。所谓内在价值，根据《证券分析》一书的作者本杰明·格雷厄姆，通常由资产、收益和股息等事实和可以确定的前景决定的，也即由企业的发展前景以及其所能创造的收益和股息率所决定。格雷厄姆其实在20世纪20年代的早期就开始提倡内在价值和安全边际的理念。由于未来充满变数，因此投资者是自身对抗未来的不确定性，因此应该以低于内在价值的成本进行投资。内在价值这一理念发展到现在，投资人将企业在可预见的未来所能创造的自由现金流作为确定内在价值的依据。高估值板块的企业未来所能创造的自由现金流折现在是否能够超过当前股价存在较大不确定性。这意味着这些股票的安全边际很低或者是没有的。因此，在面对未来经济存在下行压力可能会造成企业盈利下行而政策又不能如预期及时出手的情况下，高估值板块的下跌虽是意料之外，却也在情理之中。投资要投的是具有较高安全边际的股票。否则，就是投机或者是赌运气。

美股下跌。7月零售数据环比增速下降1.1%，市场预期下跌0.3%。Delta病毒对美国经济的负面影响逐渐体现。美元指数创出今年以来的新高，达到93.144，据3月底的高点93.286仅一步之遥。美元指数上涨带动大宗商品价格全线下跌。

What does the market tell us? Both A-share and HK stocks tumbled on Tuesday. In A-share leisure service, food and beverage and medicine and healthcare sector fell the most at 3.6-4.8% while property, construction material and transportation fell the least at 0.2-0.4%. In general, those high-valued stocks fell more than thelow-valued ones. Some investors owed the sharp drop of stocks to that the People’sBank of China renewed Medium-term Lending Facility at a smaller amount than that due on Tuesday. This together with the lower-than-expected economic data in July crushed the stock market. Others thought that geopolitical tensions made investors decrease their risk preference. Yet the root could be that these stocks lack safety margin. Safety margin is a concept that was brought up by Benjamin Graham in the early 1920’s. Benjamin Graham is famous for his book “Security Analysis” and being the tutor for the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Graham believed that stock investors were faced with great uncertainties and should buy a stock at a price that should be lower than intrinsic value of the stock,which is determined by the growth prospects of the company. Nowadays intrinsic value refers to the discounted free cash flow that a company can create in a foreseeable future. The stock prices of those high-valued might be a little lower or even higher than their intrinsic value. Hence,when the economy might slow down and policies might not be brought up timely these stocks would be faced with earnings slowdown and valuation contraction. Investing in a stock with a high margin of safety is the right way to invest. Otherwise,it is speculation.

The US stocks fell sharply. Retail sales in July fell1.1% month-on-month, higher than 0.3% expected. Delta variant was negatively impacting the US economic recovery. The US dollar index reached above 93 and wasonly one step away from the high reached at the end of March. Commodity prices fell across the board. Investors are concerned that Delta variant would weigh heavily on the economy.

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