壹 抱团股再次崩塌

      上周抱团股的崩塌再次让投资人损失惨重。今年以来A股市场抱团股屡次大幅调整。春节之后因为美债收益率上升以及央行收紧流动性导致估值高企的抱团股发生大跌。此次调整在3月中旬趋于缓和，之后抱团股重拾上涨态势，同时新能源和光伏赛道崛起，资金再次紧密抱团新赛道。6月底、7月初以来，随着政府对一些互联网企业的管控加强，A股开启第二波调整。首当其冲的还是抱团股。截止2021年8月20日，贵州茅台从6月初的高点下跌了33.6%，从2月春节之后的高点下跌了41%。其他抱团股也有较大幅度的调整。持有这些抱团股的基金净值也有较大回撤。我们之前曾经多次提示抱团股其实并没有投资价值，因为其估值已经完全反应了所有的利好。股价的方向只能是下跌，而不是上涨。

       贰 抱团股仍面临风险

      当前市场上很多热门板块都存在估值高的问题。虽然持有这些板块的基金短期赚钱了，业绩也不错，但其实隐含着很大的风险。一方面，政策信号已经很明确，赚钱要公平。以垄断地位赚钱未来可能会面临政策的打压。而很多抱团股之所以享受高估值，一个主要原因就是市场给予的垄断估值溢价。另一方面，随着美国逐渐收紧流动性，这些成长股的估值也会面临压力。同时，中国经济增速在2季度达到同比高点之后，在3、4季度将会逐季走低。这些对企业盈利也会造成压力。而央行可能在美联储收紧流动性的过程中也会保持克制，避免造成人民币的过大波动。这也意味着不能指望国内流动性的放松很快到来，高估值股票因此面临较大风险。

       叁 投资要赚业绩提升的钱

       要想在今年规避这种亏损，其实是需要投资人想清楚投资要赚什么钱：是赚估值提升的钱，还是业绩提升的钱。估值提升需要流动性的配合，而业绩提升就是要寻找基本面优秀的企业。作为专业投资人士，寻找基本面优秀的企业从而赚取业绩提升的钱才是其价值所在。以资金优势抬升企业估值，即使短期股价上涨了，长期看也是不可能持续的。白酒医药等抱团股去年和今年的截然相反表现很好的诠释了这一点。对于今年新的抱团股投资人也要小心，以避免重蹈覆辙。

        肆 市场综述

       上周全球指数普跌。港股恒生指数在全球16个主要国家和地区指数中跌幅最大，5.84%；其次法国CAC40指数、台湾指数和深成指，分别下跌3.91%、3.77%和3.68%。上证指数2.53%，下跌幅度居中。关注美联储在下周的杰克森年会上是否就削减债券购买表态。

I. Group-holding stocks tumbled again

Last week group-holding stocks tumbled again, which happened several times this year. The first is after Chinese New Year festival. Due to thefast-rising treasury yield in the US and that the People’s bank of China withdrawing liquidity, group-holding stocks fell sharply until mid-March. Then from late June and early July due to that government brought measures to crack down internet sector and tutoring sector, group-holding stocks fell again.  Until last Friday Kweichow Moutai fell 33.6%from its high in early June and 41% from its high in mid-Feb. 

II. To earn money from companies' earnings growth

The fall of group-holding stocks has created big losses for those funds holding them. To avoid such big losses,one needs to think clearly what money he or she should earn in investment, i.e.,to earn money from valuation improvement or from earnings growth. To earn money from valuation improvement it requires liquidity improvement. While to earn money from earnings growth it requires to find good companies. As professional investor it should be his or her duty to find good companies that can deliver strong earnings growth. In this way the professional investors can add value to those who trust them with money to manage. It is not sustainable to earn money from liquidity improvement. The sharp contrast of group-holding stocks' performance this year and last year illustrates this point well. New group-holding stocks in new energy and chip sector emerged in A-share from mid-March. These stocks might repeat what happened to liquor sector.

III. A summary of global markets last week

Hang Seng Index fell 5.89% last week and the worst-performing index among the 16 global major indexes. Shenzhen Composite Index fell 3.68%,the fourth worst-performing index globally. Global central banks will convene online for Jackson Hole annual meeting this week. Market is paying attention to whether the Federal Reserve chairman Powell would disclose any details on taper.

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