壹 投资价值四要素

      在《大钱细思》一书，乔尔·帝林哈斯特指出：影响投资价值的主要有四个要素，即盈利能力、生命周期、成长性和确定性。他指出，从宏观层面看，利润丰厚的公司，在经营确定性较强的情况下，行业的周期性越弱，存活的时间越长。成长性也非常重要，历史上许多公司在缺少盈利驱动后，价值都归为零。他认为：除了规模较小的非耐用消费品行业，大部分公司很难兼具确定性和成长性。

       贰 将不安全边际最小化

      他同时认为巴菲特是将“不安全边际”最小化以应对不确定性。如果你将不要赔钱的投资原则放在第一位，那么减少不安全边际就是你需要重点考虑的事情。发掘价值首先要辨别公司的盈利能力。如果筛选的公司盈利能力强，则要看这种盈利能力能够持续多久。不同行业情况是完全不同的。如果一家公司没有替代品，也没有竞争者，那么它往往可以获得较高回报。像自然垄断型的公司包括电力和燃气等，但这些公司的产品价格通常会受到政府管制。这些公用事业公司的生存和业务确定性要高于追求高利润。

       叁 消费品公司和高科技公司

       品牌消费品公司在过去半个世纪的利润率要高于其他任何行业。具备上述提及的四个要素中的三个，即盈利能力、生命周期和确定性，但成长性往往不足。高科技公司一般是盈利能力强、成长性高，但是他们一般生命周期短，同时面临较大不确定性，包括是否被新的技术取代。在变化迅速的行业，公司只有通过不断创新才能生存下来。他最后指出：投资是具有挑战性的活动，在过程中投资者需要避免不切实际的期望。

       肆  看看A股市场

       乔尔所说的这些判断投资价值的标准同样适用于A股。结合估值来看，A股市场那些盈利能力高、生命周期处在朝阳阶段，短期成长性和确定性都很强的公司估值都较高。而对于那些走下坡路的行业，估值很低，因为成长性不足。但是，A股市场一个比较矛盾的现象是：盈利确定性高的行业估值太高，而成长性不足的行业估值又太低。如果这些盈利确定性高的行业或者公司的盈利一旦低于预期，公司股价就会遭受较大打击；而成长性不足的公司一旦业绩增速提升，则会有估值的提升。

      伍 市场综述

      周一A股和港股均上涨。腾讯展开回购，港股科网股大幅上涨。A股军工股和周期股涨幅居前。美股全面上涨，纳斯达克指数创出历史新高。因美国FDA批准辉瑞的两剂疫苗，疫苗股、经济复苏股和周期股大幅上涨。

I. How to find investment values? 

In his popular book “Big money thinks small” Joel Tillinghast pointed out that from macro point of view one should observe four aspects to find investment values. These include profitability, business cycle, growth and certainty. He further pointed out that for those companies with high profitability the ups-and-downs would become smaller if they can maintain high profitability with a high certainty. Apart from some small non-durable consumer goods companies most companies can’t have both growth and certainties. 

II. To decrease uncertainty of safety margin

Warren Buffett tried to decrease uncertainty of safety margin to the least by buying stocks at a big discount. If an investor puts principal safety as the top priority, then he or she should consider how to decrease uncertainty of safety margin. 

III. Utilities, consumers and high-tech companies

The first thing to find value is to see whether the company can make a profit. If a company can earn a lot of money, then it is necessary to see whether it can sustain this profitability for a long time. The situation differs from sectors. If a company does not have competitors then it can earn a lot of money. Utilities company usually are in this situation. Yet their products prices are regulated. This means that their earnings’ certainty is higher than profitability. Consumer stables have higher profitability, less volatility and certainty. Yet their growth isusually low. High-tech companies have high growth rate and high profitability.But their certainty is usually low and often faced with big volatility. In a fast-changing world, high-tech companies are often substituted by new technologies. 

IV. What happened and will happen in A-share 

What Joel mentioned also apply to A-share. However, in A-share there is a conflict. For those companies with high profitability and certainty their valuation is at extremely high levels. Yet for those companies with low profitability their valuation is at extremely low levels. This could change dramatically if high profitability companies deliver less earnings than expected or low profitability companies deliver earnings higher than expected.

V. A summary of global markets 

Global markets rallied. Tencent announced share buyback. FDA approved twodoses of vaccine of Pfizer, boosting vaccine stocks in the US.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。