壹 半年报业绩两级分化

       A股上市公司2021年半年报截止8月31日都将发布完成。截止8月30日，上市公司业绩两级分化比较严重。周期股包括上游的煤炭、钢铁、铜、铝以及航运股，业绩都大超市场预期。而旧赛道股包括白酒、酱油、医药等行业的很多公司盈利都不及预期。

        贰 旧赛道泯然众人矣

        白酒行业中个别公司的业绩虽然超预期，但应收票据飙升，显示盈利质量不高。个别公司业绩小幅正增长甚至负增长，比预期的差很多。为什么去年的赛道股今年就“泯然众人矣”？难道这些赛道股不努力吗？非也。主要原因是投资人对这些赛道股的预期太高了。

       叁  周期无处不在

       事实上，任何行业都存在周期。即使消费行业这样一个弱周期行业也存在明显的周期。驱动消费周期的就是居民可支配收入。从2015年以来，我国城镇居民人均可支配收入的年增速在8%左右的水平。对消费的承受能力就是由收入水平高低所决定的。因此，一些消费品一直强调消费升级以及涨价的逻辑也受到这个因素的制约。产品价格涨的太多了超过老百姓的消费能力就意味着遭遇了周期的拐点。

       肆 新赛道也会崩盘

       新赛道股包括新能源、光伏等行业的上市公司业绩虽然较好，但是估值已经直逼甚至超过旧赛道股高峰时期的估值。虽然业绩增速强劲，但有些公司的股价在业绩发布后大幅下跌，与1季报发布时的情况相像。这主要是因为高估值意味着高期望。一旦公司的基本面有一点瑕疵，可能就遭到投资者的抛售。这种情况在芯片、智能AI等热门赛道股里比较多。

       伍 周期可能再度辉煌

       周期股业绩超出市场预期，一方面说明周期股在多年调整之后进入了业绩的上行期，另一方面也反应市场对周期股业绩预期不够。而市场对周期股业绩预期不够主要是因为2008年金融危机以来，周期股没有给投资人赚过钱，很多投资人在周期股上“折戟沉沙”。但周期股经过10多年的产能去化，产能和库存都去得非常彻底，再度辉煌的时刻可能已经到来。

        陆 美股连涨7个月

        A股成交量创出近期新高，市场分歧加剧。周期股上涨，而券商、家电等板块下跌。美股周一道指下跌，而标普500和纳斯达克指数上涨。三大股指均连涨七个月。因美联储鸽派立场，美国10年期国债收益率下跌，支撑股市尤其是科技股上涨。

I. Divergence of earnings in 1H2021 earnings 

All of the listed A-share companies are expected to release their 1H2021 earnings by August 31st,2021. Until now the cyclical stocks’ earnings are above expectation to a great extent. This compared with those hot good-track stocks who were mostly disappointed. The so-called old good-track stocks including those in liquor, soy sauce, medicine and edible oil. These stocks’ 2Q2021 earnings either grew at a mere single digit or declined year-on-year. Some of them delivered decent earnings growth but their account receivables rose significantly, implying that earnings quality was not high. 

II. Consumer sector is also subject to economic cycle

Does this mean that these old good-track stocks did not try their best? This is certainly not the case. For these consumption and healthcare stocks they are also subject to economic cycle. Compared with the cyclical stocks their cycles are not that obvious but they do exist. From 2015 till now Chinese urban citizen disposable income per capita grew at around 8% per annum. The consumption upgrade should be based on the growth rate of income. If products’ prices rise more than income, then they would be faced with less volume and slower growth of revenue. When that happens then the consumption stocks are faced with downwards cycle. 

III. New good-track stocks 

The new good-track stocks including those in photovoltaic and new energy generally delivered strong earnings growth. Yet their valuation is as high as those old good-track stocks at their peak levels or even higher. Some companies’ stock prices fell sharply even with very strong earnings growth in 2Q2021. The reason is that with such high valuation investors’ expectation is high as well. If there are any potential risks associated with fundamentals investors would dump the stocks completely. 

IV. Cyclical stocks might come back

As for cyclical stocks they have not made money for investors over the last 10 years. After cutting inventory and capacity for around 10+ years their products are in shortage at the moment of the global economic recovery. These cyclical stocks might come back gloriously.

V. A dovish Fed supports stocks

The US 10-year treasury yield fell as Fed was expected to begin taper before the end of the year. Nasdaq rallied due to the lower treasury yield. A-share and HK stocks were mixed with cyclical stocks rising and home appliance and brokerage sector falling. 

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