壹 A股和港股估值全球倒数

      截止2021年8月25日，全球16个主要国家和地区（包括主要西方国家、金砖五国除南非以及亚洲主要国家和地区）的主要指数中，A股和港股估值都处在较低水平。以静态市净率来衡量，恒生指数和上证指数的静态市净率分别是1.1倍和1.55倍，分别位于16个主要国家和地区指数估值的倒数第四和倒数第一。俄罗斯和韩国分别排在倒数第二和倒数第三。以静态市盈率衡量，恒生指数和上证指数分别为11.2倍和14.2倍，分别位列16个国家和地区指数的倒数第三和倒数第四。俄罗斯和巴西分别为倒数第一和倒数第二。

     贰 7月以来股市调整幅度较大

     7月以来出台的一些旨在公平的政策使港股市场发生较大调整，海外跟踪中国市场的指数调整幅度更大一些。美国金瑞中国互联网ETF过去6个月下跌了45%。它所重仓的阿里巴巴下跌了30%，而教培股好未来和新东方分别下跌90%。有一些很看好中国的投资人也有些担心，这些新出台的行业规则会抑制企业家精神，对中国经济发展造成负面影响。但是，也有一些投资人坚定看好中国，认为调整是买入的机会。

      叁  低估值背后

      我们认为中国A股和港股与韩国和俄罗斯的估值水平相当，其实是外资对中国的误读。俄罗斯因为国家治理问题以及历史上发生过国债违约事件，国际投资人一直给予其较低估值。而韩国因为大企业包括三星等都是家族企业，公司治理不透明；而且这些大企业基本都是企业集团，业务包罗万象，所以投资人给予较低的估值。中国完全不同，私营企业贡献城市中90%的就业岗位，数字经济占中国GDP比例高达40%。这意味着中国不会无限制的打压私营企业和互联网企业。

      肆 中国的投资机会很多

     一些大型国外基金将中国互联网行业评级下调到低配，但看好其他行业的投资机会，包括新能源、自动驾驶、硬件等。这些企业通常不是大型企业，有些甚至很小。他们代表中国创新的方向，而创新是中国变强的必由之路。

      伍 市场综述

      中国8月的官方制造业和非制造业采购经理人指数均下行，部分原因是受到疫情的影响。A股和港股均探底回升。美股从高位小幅回落。

I. Both A-share and HK stocks were valued at low levels globally

On August 25th, Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index was valued at 1.1x and 1.55x trailing-twelve-months price-to-book value (TTW PB). They were ranked as the last and the 13th among the 16 major indexes in the world, which include major developed nations and developing markets as well as major stock indexes in Asia, Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index was valued at TTW price-to-earnings (PE) of 11.2x and 14.2x respectively and were ranked at 13th and 14th in the 16 major indexes. Russia and South Korea were ranked at the 16th and 15th. 

II. Correction started from July 

China’s stock markets suffered some correction from early July. HK markets were down sharply at one point. Those funds with a focus on China also fell a lot. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF has lost 45% over the last six months, with Alibaba down 30% and tutoring companies such as New Oriental and Tal Education down 90% during this period. In the first two weeks of August about US$3 billion flew out of China, according to EPFR Global. 

III. This might offer a buying opportunity

Some China enthusiasts doubted that the policy aiming at equality might stifle the animal spirits needed to help fuel innovation and keep China’s economy growing. However, others took the opposite opinion and believed that the correction offered a good opportunity of buying. 

IV. China would continue to encourage innovation

China is a different nation from both Russia and South Korea. Russia has been valued at global low levels due to that it ever defaulted on national debts in history and that its national governance. In the case of South Korea, its economy is mainly directed by big conglomerates, which are managed by rich families and lack transparency in terms of corporate governance. China has an economy of US$15 trillion and is home of 1.4 billion people. The private sector contributes 90% of urban employment and digital economy is 40% of GDP. Private economy is encouraged in China and innovation is essential for China to become stronger. Hence, China’s stock markets should enjoy higher valuation. 

V. Market summary

A-share and HK stocks rebounded. China’s official manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI in August fell short of expectation.

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