壹 放量滞涨

       2021年9月的第一个交易日，A股成交量创出今年以来最高水平，超过1.7万亿人民币。但是，上证指数和深成指均上涨不到一个百分点。市场呈现放量滞涨的局面。申万28个行业中，10个下跌，18个上涨。其中跌幅居前的是有色金属、电气设备和采掘，涨幅居前的是非银金融、食品饮料和房地产。

       贰 新抱团股的估值   

       所谓新的抱团股--新能源、光伏和半导体板块是重灾区。9月1日A股市场84 个跌停股大部分来自于这三个行业。我们之前曾经提示过新的抱团股很有可能重蹈旧的抱团股即白酒和医药的覆辙。一方面，新抱团股与旧抱团股一样，都是在机构资金的推升下上演了波澜壮阔的行情，估值已经严重脱离基本面。半导体行业很多个股的市盈率估值都是三位数。光伏板块虽然估值还比较理性，但是也处在历史高位。新能源的估值情况与半导体类似，估值畸高，三位数估值比比皆是。作为新能源电池的重要原材料，锂的开采或提取成本在每吨2-4万元人民币之间，但锂板块股票估值一万吨产量对应上百亿市值，估值泡沫巨大。

       叁 新抱团股的基本面

      另一方面，近期新抱团股负面消息不断。在半导体板块，国家大基金和实控人减持不断，而台积电方面又传来要设备商降价15%的消息，对板块构成进一步的打压。光伏板块的龙头业绩差强人意，市场担心未来的盈利增长可能面临挑战。而新能源电池面临扩产的压力，特别是龙头企业前一段时间发布大额定增计划，造成板块承压。

       肆 冷门股表现较好

      与这些高估值热门板块相反，低估值冷门股表现较好。这也是与他们的估值有关系。非银金融中的券商和保险估值都处在历史低位，房地产板块更是20年来的估值新低。食品饮料板块在春节后经过半年多的调整，估值也相对合理。涨幅较高的大基建板块估值也处在多年的低位，股息率可以媲美银行板块。我们在你买与不买，价值都在这里中分析过低估值板块的投资价值。从周二市场表现看，高估值板块是“你卖与不卖，风险都在这里”的一个好例证。所以，买股票是要看估值的。这是投资常识之一。

      伍 关注本周五的美国8月非农就业数据

      市场预期为增加75万个工作岗位。9月份联邦和地方的失业补贴均将到期，有可能会促进就业进一步好转。中国8月份财新制造业采购经理人指数16个月以来首次低于50。

I. Huge trading volume on September 1st, 2021 

The first trading day of September saw huge trading volume in A-share at above RMB 1.7 trillion. 10 out of 28 sectors in A-share fell with the remaining 18 rising. Non-ferrous metal, electric equipment and mining fell the most while non-bank financials, food and beverage and property rose the most.                                                                       II.New group-holding stocks' valuation

The so-called new group-holding stocks including energy, photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors are the most suffered. Among 84 stocks that reached down limit on September 1st,most of them came from these three sectors. We have reminded the risks associated with these sectors and predicted that they would repeat what happened to the old group-holding stocks including liquor and healthcare. The reason is that these sectors’ valuation was pushed to a limit by capital that flew in. Three-digit price-to-earnings ratio is pretty common in these three hot sectors. For lithium miners the valuation is also very extreme. The complete cost of mining lithium is RMB 20-40 k per ton. Yet the lithium miners are valued at more than RMB 10 billion per ton of lithium which they are expected to produce in a year. Moreover, these sectors’ fundamentals were faced with challenges. For semiconductor sector the national funds that invested in this sector began to cut holdings as well as those beneficial controlling persons who own companies in this sector.

III. Fundamentals are faced with challenges 

For new energy sector the leading player has recently announced a big plan to expand capacity via issuing new shares. For photovoltaic sector the top player’s earnings in 1H2021 was disappointed, making market concerned about the growth prospects of this sector. 

IV.Low-valued sectors performed well

Contrary to these high-valued sectors those low-valued sectors performed well. We have analyzed these sectors in “Value is there no matter you buy or not你买与不买，价值都在这里”. For high-valued sectors it would be that the risks are there whether you leave it or not. So when investing in stocks it is necessary to see their valuation levels at the first place. In fact, this should be a common sense.

V. Watch out for the key economic data 

The US stocks little changed. Market pays attention to the US non-farm payroll data in August.  China’s Caixin August manufacturing PMI came in below 50, the first time in 16 months. 

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