壹 第一重--买什么股票？

      我们认为A股市场的迷茫主要来自于三个方面。首先，是买什么股票的迷茫。在经济下行期，找到景气板块不是很容易。所以，资金持续涌入一些热门板块，造成这些板块的估值处在较高水平，有可能随时面临调整的风险。近期，这些人们板块确实有了一定幅度的回调，在一定程度上也验证了高估值板块存在的风险。而传统板块随着股价持续的低迷估值确实到了较低的水平，但是基本面短期看还没有明确的催化剂。A股市场的一些机构半年要考核一次。如果这些低估值板块在半年内无法表现，一定会拖累业绩。去年的热门赛道今年也遭遇大幅下跌，但是估值并没有到低估的程度。所以，买什么呢？这是第一重迷茫。

       贰 第二重--市场向上还是向下

       其次，对未来整体市场走势的迷茫。近期，A股成交量巨大，但股指并没有什么表现。有分析认为部分原因是机构调仓导致。不论原因如何，如果根据以往的经验，成交量放大一定会伴随股指的上涨。而这一次却与以往不同。未来整体市场的方向是向上还是向下？这是第二重迷茫。

       叁  第三重--经济怎么样？

       最后，对经济的迷茫。8月份的领先经济指标包括官方制造业和非制造业采购经理人指数以及财新制造业和非制造业采购经理人指数均低于预期。虽然疫情的冲击是一部分原因，但是经济趋势下行也是明确的趋势。市场关心的一方面是此次经济下行的幅度会达到多少；另一方面，支持性政策何时出台以及政策的力度会有多大。这些都影响投资者对板块的配置以及个股的选择。此为第三重迷茫。

       肆 投资未来

       重重迷茫之下如何选择好的投资机会呢？首先，投资人要清楚投资是投资未来。选择低估值并且未来基本面有催化剂的品种是不错的选择。即使参与热门赛道，也要选择基本面扎实并且估值有业绩支撑的股票。适用于成长股的一个估值方法是PEG，即市盈率与公司业绩增速的比值。一般这个业绩增速可以选取过去三年的年平均利润增速。如果PEG大于1，股票的估值较较高。反之，股票具有投资价值。

      伍 缩减债券购买似乎渐行渐远

       美国8月份非农就业数据大幅低于预期。市场降低9月美联储宣布缩减债券购买计划的预期，而期望在11或12月份宣布缩减债券。但如果美国疫情一波一波又一波，何时能够开启缩减债券恐怕会变得遥遥无期。

I. The first haziness 

There is three-type haziness among investors. The first is that investors are confused about what to buy. Those sectors in hot good-tracks are valued at hefty levels and are faced with risks of falling sharply at a sudden. As a matter of fact some stocks in chips and new energy sector did correct over the last couple of weeks. Those in traditional sectors are valued at historical low levels. However, with the economy going down it might take some time for these sectors to perform. 

II. The second haziness 

The second is that which direction the general market would go, up or down. Recently trading volume is huge. Yet different from the previous periods stock index did not move much. Some analysts owe this to that institutional investors are transferring positions from high-valued sectors to low-valued sectors. No matter what caused this phenomenon, investors want to wait until market chooses its direction and then buy stocks. 

III. The third haziness 

The last but not the least is that investors are confused about the economy direction. While the overall economy is on a downwards trend,investors want to know how much it would come down and when the supporting policies could come out and at what scale. 

IV. To invest in the future 

The triple haziness implies big uncertainties of stock market. It is undoubtedly very challenging to do investment amid uncertainty. We suggest investors to remember that investment is to invest in the future. And it would work well in any kind of situations to buy those undervalued stocks with fundamentals to improve in the future. For those who love growth stocks, a valuation matrix might help you. This is called PEG,which is price-to-earnings ratio divided by compound annual growth rate of earnings over the last two years. If PEG is bigger than 1, then the stock lacks investment value. If it is lower than 1, then the stock has investment value.

V. Taper is endless to come

August non-farm payroll in the US came in much lower than expected. The probability that the Fed would announce taper in November or December has increased. However, if the pandemic in the US goes on one wave after another,  it might be difficult for the Fed to taper in the foreseeable future.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。