壹 8月份进出口数据超预期

        8月份出口数据超市场预期，出口以美元计同比上涨25.6%，超出是市场预期的17.1%，也高于7月份的19.3%。对各个国家和地区的出口都有增长，但最主要的是对欧盟的出口增速较高。进口同比上涨33.1%，也超市场预期。

        贰 经济也许不太差

       一方面海外疫情尤其是东南亚疫情导致部分订单转移到国内，另一方面，因为运力受限，部分国内和海外订单提前。半导体等产品的出口增速也较快。8月份数据显示出口仍是经济增长的动力。超预期的出口也许意味着我国经济可能并不太差。海外疫情连绵不断造成供应链被打破，我国当前可能是全球唯一能够保持正常生产的国家。如果出口持续超预期，我国经济在3、4季度下行的速率可能会很平缓。

         叁 全球通胀超预期

        欧元区通胀率已经达到3%，为10年来的最高水平。德国消费者价格指数上涨3.9%，为1993年12月以来的最高水平。德国在魏玛共和国时期曾经发生过恶性通货膨胀。因此，德国从那之后一直把通胀视作大敌。当前无论是美联储还是欧央行都认为通胀是暂时的，因为通胀中的较大上升来自于供应链的破坏。但这个暂时要持续多久没有人知道。欧美疫情控制不力很可能使供应链再次遭到打击。同时，很多大宗商品价格持续飙升，对通胀也构成压力。

        肆 央行如何应对？

        如果通胀不是暂时的，则各国央行面临较大挑战。如果过早收回流动性，经济复苏将会夭折。欧央行在2008年全球金融危机之后就曾经犯过这样的错误，导致欧洲经济陷入二次衰退。但如果落后于通胀，则通胀有失控的风险。经济不那么差，通胀可能会很高，这种情况下我国央行会如何应对呢? 也许市场期待的对经济支持的政策要等得更久一点。

       伍 过去几年美股九月份是上涨的

       因8月出口数据超预期，A股和港股上涨。上证指数已经逼近前期高点，有策略师看到4000点。美股因担忧Delta疫情的负面影响而下跌。高盛调低美国2021年经济增速预测至5.7%，市场普遍预期在6.2%。摩根·斯坦利将美国股市评级下调到低配，认为9、10月份股市将会面临调整压力。9月份历史上看确实是一个调整的月份，但是过去几年9月份都是上涨的。

I. Export-import data was better than expected 

China export in August jumped 25.6% year-on-year, better than 17.1% expected and higher than 19.3% in July. Export grew across the board but thatto Europe grew the fastest. Import grew 33.1%, higher than expected as well.The better-than-expected import-export data was because that overseas orders shifted from Southeast Asia to China as COVID-19 pandemic made countries in Southeast Asia hard to organize mass production. Moreover, due to the shipping challenges orders for the Christmas festival were made earlier than previous. Export growth in China could be maintained at a relatively high level in the remaining four months of this year. This is mainly due to the pandemic. Around the world only China can control the spread of Delta variant in an efficient way. As such the 3rd and 4th quarter economic growth might not slow down too much in China. 

II. Inflation is higher than expected

Yet inflation is still a concern around the world. Germany saw its Consumer Price Index (CPI) inAugust rose 3.9% year-on-year, the highest reading from Dec. 1993. The CPI in Euro-region reached 3% year-on-year, the highest in 10 years. Germany ever suffered hyperinflation in history. Hence, policy makers in Germany always take inflation as their top policy target.

III. Challenges for central banks 

However, at this moment both the Federal Reserve in the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) consider inflation as transitory.Yet, it is hard to make it clear how long the transitory inflation would last.This actually poses big challenges for these policy makers. ECB made a mistake in 2011 by withdrawing supporting policies earlier and caused the Euro-region tobe in depression for the second time after 2008 global financial crises. This time they wowed not to make the same mistake. Yet given the high inflation,they might risk acting too late. For China if economy is better than expected,then the supporting policies might come later than expected.

IV. Market summary

The better-than-expected export-import data in August boosted both A-share and HK stocks. DOW and SP500 fell due to concern on the pandemic.

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