壹 创新行业引领市场

       近期市场上元宇宙概念股表现出色，投资人也纷纷学习了解元宇宙这个突如其来的概念。威廉·欧内尔在《笑傲股市》一书中指出：强势行业孕育超级牛股，顺应行业趋势至关重要。对于一个创新主导的经济体，新兴创新者通常会引领市场。这在美国股市上得到验证。

       贰 创新随时代而变化

      从美国股票历史看，强势行业跟随创新的趋势而变化。在上世纪50-60年代，航空航天曾经多年独领风骚。上世纪80年代到2000年，计算机、食品医药等为强势行业。牛市中的主导行业通常会产生外溢效应。20世纪60年代末，航空产业由于喷气式飞机的引进而进入复兴时期，航空公司股票暴涨。

       叁 创新具有外溢效应

       航空公司的增长在持续几年后外溢到酒店业，游客对住宿需求的增加使酒店业股票强势上涨。20世纪90年代，随着互联网的腾飞，消费者对网络访问速度和带宽的需求增加。网络产业的股票暴涨，而专供光纤产业的公司股票也随之上涨。欧内尔将上述情况称为股市里的跟进效应。还有一种被称为亲戚股票，这在制造业中很常见。比如20世纪60年代随着航空需求的崛起，波音公司出售了大量喷气式飞机。每一个喷气式飞机都有一个莫纳格莱姆公司制造的洗手间。该公司利润上涨了2倍，股票最高上涨了10倍。

      肆 A股的创新行业

      A股市场也是创新行业引领市场。跟进效应和亲戚股票现象在A股里也比比皆是。比如A股中航空和酒店通常表现一致：航空好，则酒店也表现好。反之亦然。元宇宙概念股中也能看到跟进效应：游戏产业股票表现好，光纤产业股票也表现好，因为VR、AR游戏对带宽有较高要求。随着新能源和光伏产业的火爆，不仅锂电池股票表现较好，制造新能源电池和光伏材料的原材料价格都强势上涨。创新行业引领市场，经常会给人以“萧瑟秋风今又是，换了人间”的感觉。但如果没有业绩支撑，炒作终将停止。

      伍 市场综述

      A股和港股下跌。科创50跌幅1.8%，创业板指跌近1个百分点，上证指数微跌。港股博彩股涨幅领先，因粤澳新通道青茂口岸周三开通。随着粤港澳继续开放通关，低估值的博彩股有望持续受益。美股道指连续第三天下跌，纽约联储主席发表讲话认为年底前开始缩减债券购买是合适的举措。

I. Innovation sectors led the market rally 

Mettaverse-concept stocks have rallied recently in A-share. Investors participated in meetings and conferences to learn about the new concept. In his popular book “How to make money in stocks ” William O’neil pointed out that strong-performing sectors lead stock markets and to follow the market trend is key to make money. Those strong-performing sectors are usually innovation-driven.

II. Innovation sectors change from time to time 

At different times innovation drives different sectors. In the 1950 to 1960s, airlines led the market rally. From 1980 to 2000, computer sector was one of the best-performing sectors that drove the broad market. 

III.Spill-over effects

These strong sectors usually have spill-over effects. Take the example of airline sector in the last 1950-60s. Due to that jets were created airline sectors grew very fast. The travelling demands from consumers eventually pushed up demands for hospitality.  Hotel sector benefited and rallied along with the airline stocks. In the 1990s, with the booming of internet sector demands for internet speed and band grew very fast. The internet stocks rallied and those companies who provided optical fiber and cable rose as well. O’neil called the above phenomenon as follow-on effect. There is another effect which he called cousin stocks, which is especially true in manufacturing sector. While jets became popular in the 1960s, every jet had atoilet manufactured by Monagramm. The company saw its earnings grow 2 times andstock prices rose 10 times. 

IV. The same in A-share

In A-share both follow-on effect and cousin stocks exist. When mettaverse stocks rose, those fiber and cable producers' stocks also rallied. In new energy sector, the battery producer stock rallied. And its raw material providers’ stocks also rose quite a lot. It seems to investors that the market changes fast. But once these companies’ earnings growth slow down the stocks also lose momentum to go up.

V. Market summary

A share and HK stocks fell. STAR50 Index and Chinext Index fell 1.8% and 0.97% while Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly.The US DOW Index fell for the third day. Biege Book showed that economy moderated in July and August due to Delta variant. 

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