壹 上一轮超级周期

      大宗商品的超级周期是指大宗商品价格长期且大范围的持续上涨。从上世纪初至今一共有4轮大宗商品的超级周期。最近这轮大宗商品的超级周期起始于1999年，在2008年达到最高点。之后开始了长达12年的下跌，直到2020年4月达到此轮周期的最低点。以CRB大宗商品指数衡量，CRB指数在此轮周期的上行阶段累计上涨了3倍多一点，而在下行阶段下跌了67%。各种商品在超级周期的上涨阶段涨幅不一。原油上涨了14倍，铜上涨了6.6倍，黄金也上涨了6.6倍。但原油是2008年达到历史高点的，而铜和黄金则是在2011年，2011年是大宗商品价格的次高点。

     贰 中国因素推动

    上一轮大宗商品的上涨主要是由于中国加入WTO之后，受益于全球化红利，制造业投资和需求强劲增长。同时，国内房地产和基建需求旺盛。这些因素一起推动了一轮大宗商品的上涨。

     叁 对此轮周期的争议

     去年4月大宗商品价格创出10年左右新低之后开启强势上涨。一些分析师认为大宗商品超级周期卷土重来。但也有一些分析师持与之不同的观点，认为大宗商品价格的上涨只是货币推升和结构性短缺情况下的短期现象。由于新能源转型还需要持续数年，其对大宗商品所产生的额外需求不足以推动一轮超级周期。

     肆 也许是不一样的周期

     那么这次有没有超级周期呢？目前为止，还看不到全球对大宗商品需求的强劲增长。但随着各国经济复苏，对大宗商品的需求也在温和复苏。同时，大宗商品价格在经过数年的下跌之后，产能已经去化到较低的水平。而疫情对大宗商品的供给又产生了抑制作用。因此，我们判断此轮大宗商品的价格取决于边际供给和需求的变化。这可能是此轮大宗商品超级周期（如有）区别于以前超级周期的地方。

      伍 市场综述

      A股上涨，港股下跌。港股互联网企业因被约谈而大幅下跌，带动整体市场大幅调整。港股当前估值处在历史较低水平，我们认为投资价值已经显现。具体请参见现在可以开始和港股做时间的朋友。中国8月消费者价格指数同比低于预期，因生猪价格继续回落。而生产者价格指数同比上涨超预期。市场对滞涨担忧加剧，黄金股票在数据公布后上涨，大宗商品股票全天领涨A股和港股。因投资人担忧经济增长前景，美国股票连续第四天下跌。但上周初次申请失业救济人数回到2020年3月时的水平，显示就业恢复良好。

I. The last super cycle 

The super cycle of commodities refers to that commodity prices rise for a long period and across the board. There have been four super cycles of commodities since the beginning of last century. The most recent super cycle started in 1999 and reached the peak levels of prices in 2008. CRB commodity index rose more than 300% over this period and then began a 12-year decline until April 2020, when it finally reached the lowest point of this cycle and fell 67% in total. All of the commodities rose during the rising period of the super cycle but at different range. Oil rose 1500% from 1999 to 2008 when it reached the highest price at US$147 per barrel. Copper and gold rose 600% respectively but reached the highest point in 2011, which saw the high of CRB Index only second to the peak in 2008.

II. China drove the last cycle

This recent super cycle was driven by China demand. In 2001 China joined WTO and began to take part in global trade and manufacturing. This promoted investment in manufacturing. Moreover, with the economy booming demand for infrastructure and property also rose fast. All of these helped a super cycle of commodity. 

III. Likely a different cycle 

Currently we do not see the strong demand for commodity as that in the last super cycle. However, with 10-year plus commodity prices decline, commodity production capacity has been cut off to relatively low levels. Moreover, pandemic disrupted commodity production from time to time. Yet with the economy recovery from the pandemic going on the demand for commodity is increasing at a moderate rate. So this time if there is a commodity super cycle, it would be determined by the marginal changes of supply and demand. This might be the difference of this super cycle from the previous ones. 

IV. Market summary

A share rose while HK stocks fell. HK stocks fellsharply as gaming and media companies were summoned by government. We have pointed out that HK stocks are valued at low levels from history. And it might be a good timing to bottom fish in the HK market. The US DOW fell for the fourth day in a row as investors worried about Delta variant. The European Central Bank announced that it would slow the pace of pandemic bond-buying program in 4Q2021. 

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