壹 康波是什么？

        在上世纪二十年代，前苏联学者尼古拉·康德拉季耶夫提出，在资本主义经济生活中存在着45~60年的长期波动。这种长期波动被人们称为康德拉季耶夫周期，也称康波，它通常对应着技术创新。一位已故著名经济学家曾经说过“人生发财靠康波”的名言，使康波深入人心。

        贰 康波在中国宋代

        《白银资本》的作者德国人贡德·弗兰克研究发现其实在中国宋代就存在康波。从930年到1250年共320年间，中国一共经历了4个连续的康波，分别对应着印刷术和造纸术，这都是中国人的创新。

        叁 中国是创新主导国

        虽然有学者认为宋代之后技术创新转移到了欧洲，但弗兰克认为事实并非如此。第5个到第12个康德拉季耶夫周期分别对应着黑海贸易、威尼斯大帆船舰队、胡椒、几内亚黄金、印度香料、波罗的海-大西洋贸易。第13 和14个周期分别对应着种植园和美洲-亚洲贸易。在5-14个康德拉季耶夫周期中，弗兰克认为第6-14个周期除了几内亚黄金和波罗的海-大西洋贸易，其余的康波都与中国有关。欧洲的创新是欧洲人争取从亚洲的经济活动中心谋取好处的漫长努力的反应，是中国经济渗透发挥的作用。康波中有主导国和创新的提法。无疑，中国在宋代始的几个世纪都应该是世界创新的主导国。第6个周期开始于1250年，第14个周期开始于1688年，结束于1740年。因此，中国至少在17世纪之前都是世界的经济和贸易中心。

        肆 衰落是暂时的

       由于中国在瓷器、丝绸和茶叶市场上的竞争优势，直到19世纪初中国还保持贸易顺差。瓷器的英文CHINA也就是中国的意思，也在一定程度上印证了中国当时的竞争优势。弗兰克认为由于中国的生产效率、人口增长速度和制度优势使得其在历史上长久保持世界中心的地位。中国在19世纪和20世纪的衰落只是历史长河中的短暂一瞬，终将重新引领世界。

      伍 市场综述

      A股上涨，港股下跌。港股科技股下挫，因政府要求美团等平台企业保障劳动者权益。周期股领涨两市。美股道指和标普500上涨，结束了连续5个交易日的下跌。美国新冠7天平均新增病例环比前一周下跌。但上周五发布的8月份生产价格指数同比上涨8.3%，为2010年10月以来的最高涨幅。周二晚将会发布8月份消费者价格指数数据。

I. What is Kondratiev cycle? 

Kondratiev cycle was brought up by Russia famous economist Nikolai Kondratiev. It refers to a long economic cycle that can last up to 40-60 years and is usually caused by technology innovation. A reknown economist in China ever said that one can only make a fortune by relying on Kondratiev cycle. 

II.Kondratiev cycle in China

Gunder Frank, a Germany economist, wrote in his popular book “Reorient-Global Economy in the Asian Age” that Kondratiev cycles had existed in China since the Song Dynasty. From 930 to 1250 there were four Kondratiev cycles in China,which corresponded to printing and paper-making technology innovation. The following 5th to 12th Kondratiev cycle corresponded to trade in Black Sea, Venetian galleon, pepper, Guinea gold, perfume in India, and trade between Baltic Sea and the Atlantic. The 13th and 14th Kondratiev cycle was caused by plantation and trade between the America and Asia. 

III. China had long been the centre of innovation

Frank considered that except Guinea gold and trade between the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic, the other Kondratiev cycles were related with China. So he refuted the idea that innovation centre shifted to Europe after the Song Dynasty and believed that China has remained as the world economic center until the 18thcentury. China has enjoyed competitive advantage in production efficiency,population growth and advanced rules and arrangements. As a matter of fact China had maintained its competitive advantage in china, silk and tea and enjoyed trade surplus until early 1900s. Frank believed that China has long been the center of the world economy and innovation and considered that the setbacks in the 19th and 20th century as a short-term phenomenon. He expects China to come back soon. So do we.

IV. Market summary

A-share rose while HK stocks fell.Internet platform companies such as Meituan fell sharply on Monday as government required these companies to provide social security welfare to their employees. DOW and SP 500 rose, snapping a five-day losing streak. The average 7-day COVID-19 new cases last week fell week-on-week.

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