壹 美国8月通胀回落

        美国8月份的消费者价格指数同比和环比涨幅均低于预期: 同比上涨5.3%，预期5.4%；环比上涨0.3%，预期0.4%。7月份消费者价格指数环比上涨0.5%，8月的环比涨幅较7月份也是回落的。但消费者价格指数的回落可能受到疫情的影响，因为飞机票价和酒店住宿价格分别较7月份下跌9.1%和3.3%。这也意味着一旦疫情好转，这些价格很可能再度上涨。

       贰 美国消费领域通胀更重要

      上周五发布的美国生产者价格指数同比涨幅超市场预期。作为一个消费占GDP比重高达80%的国家，市场对美国消费者价格指数的关注程度远高于生产者价格指数，制造业在美国经济中占比仅为12%。

       叁 我国生产领域通胀影响更大

       作为一个制造大国，原材料上涨对我国经济产生重大影响。因此，生产者价格指数的涨幅为政府和市场所关注。上周公布的我国8月生产者价格指数的同比涨幅达到2008年8月以来最高水平，从环比看还有加速上升的态势。我国消费者价格指数的涨幅当然也很重要。但一方面由于我国消费者价格指数在相当程度上是猪指数，而猪肉价格从今年年初以来持续下跌。因此，消费者价格指数同比涨幅一直保持在较低水平。另外，由于货币政策的松紧程度一定程度上受到消费者价格指数的制约。历史上看，只要消费者价格指数同比涨幅超过3%，货币政策就会倾向于收紧。

       肆 原材料价格可能长期保持高位

       近期，有研究表明铝的供应在未来五年不可能有大幅度改善，电解铝的价格有可能长时间保持在较高水平。周二澳大利亚锂精矿拍卖价格大幅超出市场预期，也再次点燃了新能源电池板块的行情。种种迹象表明，几乎所有上游原材料都受到供应方面的制约，价格会较长时间维持在较高水平。原材料价格上涨向下游传导需6-9个月的时间。考虑到上游原材料价格从今年年初开始就处在较高水平，消费者价格指数的上涨可能为期不远了。因此，通胀的回落也许仅是暂时的，上涨可能是长期的。

       伍 市场综述

      A股和港股均下跌。前期表现强势的周期股领跌，医药消费等白马股上涨。澳门博彩股连续第二天下跌，因政府要加强对该行业的监管。尽管通胀回落，美股仍收跌。标普500指数连续第六个交易日收低于开盘价，这是2020年2月以来的首次。

I. August inflation in consumer-side rose less than expected in the US 

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August came in lower than expected. CPI rose 5.3% year-on-year while 0.3% month-on-month versus 5.4% and 0.4% expected. In July CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month. Part of the fall was due to airfare and hotel prices, which fell 9.1% and 3.3% month-on-month respectively.In the US consumption takes up to 80% of GDP. Hence, inflation in consumer sectors has a big impact on the overall economy. Manufacturing is only 12% of the US GDP. Hence, inflation in producers’ side is not as important as in consumer side. 

II. Inflation in producer-side in China has a bigger impact

China is different from the US. Manufacturing takes more than one-third of GDP. Hence, inflation in producers’ side has a big impact on our economy. China’s Producers Price Index in August came in higher than expected at 9.5% year-on-year. It was the largest increase from August 2008. Yet due to supply constraints upstream raw material prices would be at high levels for years. China’s CPI is related with swine prices closely. Swine prices have been falling since the beginning of this year. As a result CPI has been maintained at a low level. CPI affects monetary policies. A rule of thumb is that once CPI rises higher than 3% year-on-year China’s monetary policy would strengthen. So now it is not the time to worry about monetary policy. 

III. The inflation is to be transmitted from producers to consumers

It is estimated that price increase would be transmitted from producer-sideto consumer-side in 6 to 9 months. Raw material prices rose to high levels at the beginning of this year. Hence, in 3Q we would see cost pressure in consumer products producers. So the fall of inflation might only be temporary while the rise of inflation would last for a long time.

IV. Market summary

A-share and HK stocks fell.Cyclical stocks tumbled.Macau gaming stocks fell for the second day in consecutive as government might impose more rules in this sector for its better development. The US stocks fell across the board. The SP 500 closed lower than its opening for the sixth trading day in a row, the first time from February 2020. The US 10-year treasury yield fell below 1.3% despite that the Fed might taper soon. 

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