壹 港股大跌与香港地产商

      港股周一大跌，因受到香港地产和内地金融地产行业的拖累。《路透》早前引述三位主要地产开发商和一位知情本钢特区政府顾问，本港开发商被告知，要运用资源及影响力维护国家利益，更要回馈社会，协助解决住房短缺问题。

       贰 住宅供应增加是大趋势

      香港大地产商都囤积了大量土地。截止2019年底，香港五大地产商的土地储备总计为660万平米，占香港私人住宅用地面积的38.8%。香港住宅供应增加将是未来的大趋势。摩根·斯坦利今年4月曾发表报告称供应是压抑楼价上升及令住屋可负担的最有力工具，三个潜在解决供应的方案为农田转换、填海和增加地积比。其中农田转换近期已有所加快，如新地收购了古洞新发展区首块公开招标农地(历时15年规划)。

       叁 香港楼市或下跌

      摩根·斯坦利预估对地产商的最差情景为政府公布积极的供应目标，如由目前每年供应3.5万个增至超过10万个，则香港楼价至明年底估计或会下跌20%。其基本情景假设为今年楼价会上升9%，明年则升5%。如果楼市下跌，则地产商的利润也会承压。香港本地开发商周一股价跌幅都在10%左右。

       肆 外资怎么看某内地房地产公司

      瑞银估计该房地产公司债务规模在3130亿美金，其中190亿美金为境外债券。贝莱德、瑞银和汇丰是该房地产公司最大的境外债券持有者。周一汇丰的信贷违约掉期上升了16%。市场担忧该公司债务问题会传染到全球市场，甚至认为将会影响美联储的货币政策。也有分析师认为该公司债务只是中国的问题，政府会采用债转股等方式解决。彭博社报道，部分银行已经为该公司的倒闭做好了准备，通过计提坏账准备等。凯投宏观分析师认为从中国政府处理包商银行和2015年股灾和货币贬值事件中可以看出，中国政府会允许短暂的金融混乱，但最终都会出手平息大规模的债务拖欠。

       伍 市场综述

      周一欧美市场也大幅下跌，也侧面反应了投资者对风险传染的担忧。美联储的议息会议结果将会在周三出炉，市场在不安中等待其是否会开启缩减债券购买计划的消息。截止上周五，美股已连跌三周，有分析师认为当前为买入良机。

I. HK market crashed

HK market crashed on Monday. One reason is that HK local property developers were told to contribute to the welfare of society and could not maintain their monopolistic positions. This means that they would not have the high margin as previously. All of the HK property developers' stocks fell at around -10%. 

II. Housing supply is to increase 

Both analysts from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley believed that the best way to contain the high housing prices were to increase supply. The property developers have a big land reserve. By the end of 2019 the five largest property developers have a land reserve at 660 square meters,which is 38.8% of the total land supply for private housing market. The increase of housing supply is certain in the future.

III. Housing prices to fall

Morgan Stanley estimated that if government can increase property supply from current 35,000 to 100,000 the housing prices would drop 20%. But the base case scenario they assume is that housing prices would increase 9% this year and then 5% in2022. 

IV. International investors view a Chinese property company differently

UBS estimated that the property developer had US$313 billion debt with US$19 billion off-shore bond. Blackrock,UBS and HSBC are the largest off-shore bond holders of the company. HSBC’s Credit Default Swap, a derivative that measures risk of default, rose 16% on Monday. Some analysts worried that the debt issue would spread to the US and even make the Fed delay tapering. Others believed that this would be strictly a China issue.

V. Still no consensus so far 

Capital Economics thought that Chinese government would allow temporary crisis in financial conditions but would intervene in case of large-scale default.They judged this from both Baoshang Bank and the drop of equities and RMB currency in 2015. There is no consensus on this issue. Market is waiting for news on restructuring in the coming weeks. The European and the US market also crashed. Investors wait for the results of the FOMC, which will conclude on Wednesday

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