壹港股大幅跑输全球主要指数

      恒生指数继7月份下跌9.94%，创下2018年10月以来最大月度跌幅，8月只是稍微喘了口气，9月截止21日又下跌了6.64%。恒生指数年初至今下跌11%。全球16个主要国家和地区指数年初至今只有三个是下跌的，分别为深成指、巴西指数和恒生指数。深成指和巴西指数分别下跌0.4%和8%。涨幅最高的俄罗斯和印度指数上涨22-23%。因此，恒生指数远远跑输全球主要指数。

       贰 多个行业指数估值处在20年最低水平

      恒生综合行业指数中很多估值都处在20年来的较低甚至最低水平。在恒生11个主要行业中，静态市盈率估值处在50%以上分位的只有医疗和非必需消费行业，分别处在历史上91%和62%的分位。而综合、原材料和工业处在历史上44%、39%和19%的分位。除去以上5个行业，其余6个行业均处在10%以下分位。具体来说，资讯科技业、能源、公用事业、金融、电讯、地产分别处在历史上8%、2%、1%、0.2%、0.2%和0.2%的分位。对于这些传统行业，这个历史可以追溯到2001年。

       叁 离岸市场

      港股估值如此之低一方面与其是离岸市场有很大关系，欧美机构投资者主导这个市场。一有风吹草动，这些投资人就会甩卖离场，先观望再做决策。

       肆 做空机制

      另一方面，也与沽空有很大关系。港股常年的沽空比例保持在10%左右。但当市场面临较大不确定时，沽空比率会迅速攀升。周一，港股市场沽空比例（沽空金额/可沽空股份成交额）为22.7%。因有香港地产商和内地地产商的负面消息，资金做空港股。周二，该比率下降到18.7%，当前沽空金额168.9亿港币，而可沽空股份成交金额为998.5亿。可沽空股份成交金额一般小于市场总体成交量，因为有些股票不能被做空。有国际知名投资人近期因中国出台的一些政策和发生的一些事件而明确表示做空中国股票，A股没有做空机制，所以，大量的空单都跑到了港股。

       伍 A股中秋假期之后怎么走？

      港股周一大跌，而周二上涨；美股周一大跌，周二小跌。市场关注美联储议息会议的结果和A股中秋假期后的表现。拭目以待。

I. HK market performed poorly 

Hang Seng Index fell 9.94% in July, the biggest monthly fall from Oct. 2018. It fell another 6.4% in September and fell 11% year-to-date by September 21st. Among the 16 global major stock indexes, it’s the worst-performing index. There are three indexes out of 16 that fell year-to-date, which are Shenzhen Composite Index and Brazil IBOVESPA Index along with Hang Seng Index. Shenzhen Composite Index and Brazil IBOVESPA Index fell 0.4% and 8.3% respectively year-to-date. As a comparison the best-performing index year-to-date are Russia and India stock index, which rose 23% and 22% respectively so far this year. 

II. Sectors' valuation are at 20-year lows

Among Hang Seng 11 composite sector indexes, six have a price-to-earnings valuation at 10% percentile historically. They are technology, energy, utilities, telecom, financial,and property, whose percentile are 8%, 2%, 1%, 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.2%. Some traditional sectors such as financial and property are valued from 2001, i.e.,their valuation are at 20-year lows.

III. An off-shore market

That HK market performed poorly is due to that it is an off-shore market. The investors that have pricing power in this market are those institutional investors from the European and the US. They would sell the market when there are any uncertainties. From July some policies that targeted equality and common wealth have caused panic among those investors. 

IV. Short mechanism is another reason

And short mechanism in HK market further exacerbates the situation. Some reknown international investors have announced that they are shorting Chinese stocks.A-share does not have short arrangements. So they put all of their shorting orders in HK market. The short ratio, which is the total shortable stocks’ trading value divided by short position, has been maintained at around 10% in HK market for years. Yet when risks loom, the ratio can go as high as more than 20%. On Monday this ratio shot up to 22.7% while on Tuesday it fell to 18.7%.

V. A-share is the focus after the Mid-Autumn festival

HK market recovered partially on Tuesday following big sell-off on Monday while the US stocks failed to rebound on Tuesday. Investors are watching how A-share will perform after the Mid-Autumn festival as well as the FOMC results, which would come out earlier Thursday morning in Asia time. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。