壹 股市长牛的基础

      美国二战之后股市长牛的基础是科技创新。《剑桥美国经济史》第三卷分析了美国二战后的科技创新。一个很重要的推动者是美国二战时期最著名的科学家和工程师之一和“曼哈顿计划”的提出者范内瓦·布什。他在1945年的报告《科学：永无止境的领域》中指出基础研究是经济增长的最终源泉，提倡建立独立的联邦管理机构，负责所有国防和非国防领域的基础研究方面的投资，建议基础军事研究的发展方向是民用研究。

       贰 美国联邦政府大力投入基础研究

      二战后，美国联邦在国家研发总投资中占比巨大。1945到1969年，当时世界上除美国外最大的四个工业国家--德国、法国、英国和日本在研究与开发上的累计总投资为11.3万亿美元，而美国为25.6万亿美元。1995年，联邦政府投入到基础研究中的资金占总投资的58%。

        叁  大学在基础研究中发挥重要作用

        大学作为基础研究项目的承担者的重要性也提升了。统计显示，1996年美国大学承担了美国61%的基础研究项目。而新兴的小型公司在战后美国创新体制中发挥了重要作用。这主要是因为大学、政府和不少私营企业建立的大型基础研究部门孕育了技术创新，这些技术随着研究人员创立公司并将其商业化而走向社会。这种现象在生物技术、计算机和微电子领域特别明显。这些新兴公司的发展也离不开完备的私人融资体制，美国风险资本从20世纪50年代开始就对从事新兴技术的公司进行投资。

       肆 我国研发投入有提升空间

     对比美股，A股的长牛也离不开科技创新。2020年，我国在研发的投资为2.44万亿人民币，占GDP比例在2.4%。2019年，发达国家中研发占GDP比例最高的为韩国，为4.6%，其次为德国和日本，占比为3.2%，美国的占比为3.1%。但我国在基础研究方面的投入占比较低。2020年，我国在基础研发的投入为1504亿人民币，占总体研发投入的比例为6.2%，而美国这个比例约为15%。因此，我国无论在总体研发和基础研究的投入上都有较大提升空间。而中小公司也会在科技创新中发挥重要作用，专精特新小巨人是经济长青的基础和股市长牛的一个重要支柱。

       伍 市场综述

       A股上涨，美股大涨。美联储九月议息会议结束，宣布缩减债券购买计划将很快就会来到。市场预期联储11月份缩减债券购买计划，12月份实施。

I. The foundation of a long bull market

The long bull markets of the US stocks were supported by technology innovation. In the Cambridge Economic History of the United States (Volume III), authors analyzed the innovation of the US after World War II. Vannevar Bush, who is one of the most famous scientists and engineers in the US during WWII and brought up Mahhattan Plan, pointed out in his “Science: The endless frontier” that basic study is the source of economic growth and suggested to set up an independent agency to shoulder the investment in both military and civil basic study. He also suggested that basic study in military should be applied to civil use. 

II. The federal government invested big in basic study

After WWII, the federal government invested huge in basic study. From 1945 to 1969 the most avanced nations in the world at that time including France, Germany, the UK and Japan invested a total of US$ 11.3 trillion. As a comparison the US invested US$ 25.6 trillion. In 1996 the federal government contributed 58% of the total investment in basic study. 

III. Universities played a key role in basic study

Universities rose as a key role in basic study. In 1996 universities took up 61% of all of the basic study activities. Small companies contributed a lot to innovation, especially in medicine, electronic and computer sector. The reason is that those researchers in the universities brought their study results to commercial use by setting up small companies. Venture capital helped these start-ups a lot. 

IV. China's R&D investment has room to increase 

China’s research and development was 2.4% of GDP in 2020. Compared with 4.6% of South Korea, 3.2% of Germany and Japan and 3.2% of the US in 2019 our R&D has room to further increase. Moreover, our investment in basic study was only 6% of total R&D in 2020, compared with 15% of the US. We expect that the specialized, fined, peculiar and innovative little giants in China would also contribute to innovation and economic growth, just as their counter parties in the US. A long bull market with science as the solid foundation in A share would not be too far away. 

V. Market summary  

A share rose while the US stocks rallied.The September FOMC concluded and the Fed announced that tapering would come soon. Market expects the Fed to announce it in November and begin to execute it in December. 

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