周四A股主要指数涨跌不一。上证指数微跌，创业板指上涨0.81%。申万28个行业中11个行业上涨，涨幅居前的分别是计算机、纺织服装和休闲服务，跌幅居前的行业是公用事业、建筑装饰和银行。A股两市成交量创下去年10月份以来新低。港股恒生指数微跌，国企指数跌幅约1个百分点。港股12个综合行业中5个下跌，其中跌幅居前的分别是科技、电讯和地产建筑。北上资金连续第二天净流入，金额为29.5亿人民币。南下资金净流出15.7亿人民币，连续第三天净流出。

国产品牌崛起正当时。根据发达国家经验，当一国GDP增速放缓，出口不振时，就是国产品牌崛起的时机。背后的原因是GDP高速增长的时候，经济是粗放式发展，企业无需考虑产品品质就能取得很高的收益。而GDP增速放缓一般都是工业化后期，此时人均GDP有很大提升，消费者在有钱之后开始对品质的追求。2020年我国人均GDP超过1万美金，中国超越美国成为世界上最大的单一市场。而国产品牌也成为消费者的首选。根据阿里研究院的统计，2019年线上中国品牌市场占有率达到72%。创新是驱动国产品牌增长的主要动力，2019年品类创新对市场规模扩大的贡献度比2018年提升了15.2个百分点达到44.8%。从新品销售额占比和新品增长贡献度看，手机、服装、家具、箱包配饰、运动户外等是新品驱动的重点行业。新疆棉事件无疑加快了国产品牌在服装鞋帽等领域替代国外品牌的过程。2007年，本人曾带着国内某知名体育品牌在香港机构投资者中路演，印象最深的就是他们抱怨某一线城市的消费者对国外品牌的崇拜使他们很难渗透到这个市场。但随着该品牌近几年在纽约时代广场不断发布新品，品牌形象已足以比拟知名国际品牌，收入增长也开始领先国际品牌。历史大势，浩浩汤汤，顺之者昌，逆之者亡。认不清形势的外资品牌注定被历史抛弃。当历史车轮碾过的瞬间，你可能连他们的一声叹息都听不到。

美股探底回升。周期股带领股市上涨，道指涨幅领先，纳指微涨。上周初次申请失业救济人数为684,000，好于市场预期。这是2020年3月中旬以来该数据首次低于70万人。美联储主席鲍威尔谈到在经济好转之后逐渐退出宽松措施。

Major indexes in A-share mixed on Thursday. Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly while Chinext Index rose 0.81%. 11 sectors out of 28 rose, which were computer, textile and clothes and leisure service. Trading volume reached the lowest level since Oct. 2020. Hang Seng Index fell slightly while China Enterprises Index fell close to 1%. 5 out of 12 sectors in HK market fell with tech, telecom and property sector falling the most. North-bound capital saw the second-day net inflow of RMB 2.95 billion. South-bound capital saw the third-day net outflow of HK$1.57 billion.

It is time for national brands to emerge. According to what happened in developed markets, a country’s economy would slow down with export demand dwindles at post-industrialization stage. At this time residents usually enjoy much higher income levels and would require higher quality of life. In 2020 per capita GDP in China reached above US$10,000 and China has become the largest single consumption market. National brands have become the top choices of consumers. According to Ali Research Bureau national brands took 72% market share in online trading. Innovation is the main driver for the surge of national brands. Category innovation contributed 44.8% to national brands’ market share increase in 2019 versus 29.6% in 2018. Sales growth of mobile phone, clothes, furniture, and outdoors equipment are mainly driven by new products. What happened around Xinjiang cotton recently would undoubtedly promote the progress of national brands taking place of international brands. A domestic sports brand used to face challenges in a top-tier city due to consumers’ favoring international brands. However, it has improved brand image dramatically recently after releasing new products with innovation and fashion in New York Times Square. And its sales growth caught up with international brands very quickly.

The US stocks bottomed and rose. Cyclical stocks rose the most. Powell talked about exiting from quantitative easing when the economy recovers well.  

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