壹 通胀对政府还债是有好处的

       美国上世纪经历了两次大规模的通胀，一次是20世纪40年代末，一次是60年代，发展到70年代成为有名的滞涨。通胀其实对政府偿还负债和利息都有很大帮助。根据《剑桥美国经济史》第三卷，1950年美国联邦债务占国民生产总值的比重为89.7%，占财政收入的比重为334%，而利息支付占财政收入的比重为11%。而通胀相当于向联邦债务的债权人以及联邦债券的持有者征收了高税率。通胀高企意味着名义收入快速增长，因此个人需要按照更高的税率纳税。美国利用这些多征收的税支付了朝鲜战争和越南战争的开支。同时，快速上涨的通胀使实际利率降到很低的水平，有时甚至达到负利率区间。由于较低的实际利率，联邦政府的利息占财政收入的比例在40年代下降到14%以下。之后持续下降，到80年代维持在10%以下。

       贰 关注利息负担而不是债务总额

       新冠疫情之后，美国政府大规模放水导致通胀高企。这些通胀对美国支付巨额债务利息无疑也是有很大帮助的。由于实际利率有可能长期为负（具体请参见这次也许不一样），美国政府需要支付的利息负担可以说是微不足道。美国财政部长耶伦在其任命的听证会上就指出：不要考虑负债总额，要看利息负担。利息负担的一个衡量指标是国债利息占GDP的比例。耶伦指出，由于低利率，当前美国的利息负担并不比2008年时候高。美国国债自2008年金融危机发生后直到新冠疫情之前已经从10万亿美金上涨到20万亿美金。美国政府依据现代货币理论解决新冠危机，以国家信用印钞票。截止2020年底，美国国家总负债上涨到26.9万亿美元。正如加州大学经济学教授罗伯特·温特布劳所言：美元是我们的货币，但却是你们的问题。

       叁 美元确实是新兴市场的问题

       近期，因美联储要缩表，新兴市场国家不断加息，以应对国内由于美元放水导致的通胀压力以及美元流动性缩减造成的资本外流压力。资本外流冲击对我国冲击有限，但是通胀确实是对我国经济和民生都造成了影响。如何解决通胀也是我们面临的一个难题。

        肆 也许是贝尔斯登时刻，而非雷曼时刻

       A股上涨，美股连续第二天大涨。美联储缩减债券购买计划符合市场预期，同时对中国某地产公司的担忧也大大缓解。市场意识到这也许是贝尔斯登时刻，但不是雷曼时刻。

I.High inflation means less debt burden

The US experienced mass-scale inflation in the 1940s and1960s. The inflation in the 1960s later led to stagflation in the 1970s. Inflation is actually good for governments to pay principal and interest as high inflation means higher taxes for those debtors of the government debt and holders of treasury. According to the Cambridge Economic History of the United States (Volume III), the US federal debt was 89.7% of GNP and 334% of fiscal revenue and the interest to be paid was 11% of fiscal revenue in 1950. Due to the high inflation the real interest was quite low and some times even negative. The ratio of interest to be paid to fiscal revenue came down to 14% in the 1940s. It kept going down to below 10% by the 1980s. Moreover, high inflation means that personal nominal income would rise fast to higher tax rate in progressive income tax system. The higher tax revenue supported both Korea War and Vietnam War. 

II. The key is interest burden not the total debt scale

In this COVID-19 crises, the US printed a lot of money, which caused inflation worldwide. But real interest rate would be maintained at very low levels due to the high inflation (details can be found in our previous article "这次也许不一样". Yellen,the Minister of Finance, pointed out in her nomination testimony to the congress that the ratio of interest to be paid to fiscal revenue is the key in evaluating debt burden and debt scale was not important. Before COVID-19 crises the US federal and local government debt has doubled since 2008 global financial crises from US$10 trillion to 20 trillion. It shot up to US$26.9 trillion by the end of 2020. 

III. The US dollar is the developing nations' issue

Just as the economic professor from California University Robert Winterblau said: the US dollar is our currency but your issues. Recently developing countries have increased interest rates to defend both igh inflation and capital outflow as the Fed is going to take back liquidity. Capital outflow might not be an issue for China. But how to deal with the high inflation is a dilemma for us.

IV. Not another Lehman Brother

A share rose slightly while the US stocks rallied for a second day.Market realized that Evergrande might be another Bear Stearns but not another Lehman Brother.  The Fed’s tapering was also in line with expectation.

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