壹 消费的增长来自收入驱动

       消费增长是由个人收入水平增速所决定的。截止2020年6月份我国城镇居民人均可支配收入的累计同比增速为11.4%，与截止2020年6月份累计同比增速1.5%相加，可得2020和2021两年累计收入同比增速的平均值为6.45%。这个增速是2003年有统计数据以来的最低值。

        贰 疫情冲击

        这其中一个因素是疫情的影响。疫情对居民收入增速造成较大影响主要表现在其对第三产业的冲击。根据国家统计局，2020年我国有3.58亿人从事第三产业。任何一个行业中，80%都是中小企业，20%是大企业。据此可得约2.86亿人在第三产业中的中小企业工作，占我国总就业人口7.5亿人的1/3强，分布在餐饮、住宿、旅游、娱乐等行业。疫情冲击下，很多中小餐馆、住宿旅游及其他服务性行业的从业人员都不得不因为疫情而面临较长时间的暂时性失业，导致收入水平下降。

       叁 高收入人群不受疫情影响

       跟发达国家一样，疫情下中国经济也存在明显的K型复苏现象：即高收入人群的收入基本没有受到疫情的影响，反而因为资产价格收益如股市投资等而使收入水平持续提高，一个表现是在奢侈品市场。2020年，受疫情影响，全球奢侈品市场萎缩了23%，但中国奢侈品消费却比2019年上涨了48%，占全球奢侈品消费的1/3。

        肆 大众消费和奢侈品消费未来走向

       未来，我国经济潜在增速将会逐步下行，预计到5%以下的水平。经济下行的过程中，低收入人群仍然是受冲击最大的。如何使低收入人群的收入水平保持一定的增速而不被落下，是近期政策的一个焦点。我们认为这些政策将会有助于消费的恢复，尤其是大众消费。而中国的奢侈品消费可参照日本的经验。日本奢侈品消费在1995年达到顶峰，人均消费达到1996美元，占全球奢侈品消费的68%。随后，日本消费开始趋于理性化和去品牌化。2018年，日本占全球奢侈品消费的10%。我国2021年取代日本成为全球最大的奢侈品消费市场。2021年以来，A股和港股市场的消费板块都有较大幅度的调整，而近期有走强的迹象。这种走强能否持续还是看居民的消费水平能否支撑。

       伍 市场综述

       A股下跌，港股上涨。A股周期股全线下跌，而消费板块上涨。港股科技股跌幅较大。美股涨跌互现，道指上涨而科技股下跌，因美国10年期国债收益率持续上涨。

I. Consumption growth is driven by disposable income

Urban disposable income per capita growth rate in China grew 11.4% year-on-year by June 2021. In 2020, urban disposable income per capita grew 1.5% year-on-year. Combining the growth rate of 2020 and 2021 urban disposable income per capita grew 6.45% on average for these two years. This is the lowest from 2003 when the data was released for the first time.

II. The pandemic hit the lower-income population hard

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit hard on some groups of people,especially for those in the third industry. There was a population of 358million people working in the third industry. For any sector 80% are small and medium-sized enterprises. Based on this, there were a total of 286 people working in the small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). They work in leisure and service, catering, travelling, etc sectors. SMEs in these sectors were hit hard by the pandemic as the latter caused them to stop businesses from time to time. 

III. Higher-income population is not affected by the pandemic

Yet for those high-income population they are not affected by the pandemic at all. Moreover, due to their investment in stock markets or other assets their income actually increased during the pandemic. This is reflected in the luxury consumption. In 2020 luxury consumption fell 23% globally while it rose 48% in China. China took one-third market share of global luxury consumption. Going forward China’s economic growth rate would come down to around 4-5%. During this process the growth rate of personal disposable income would come down as well. 

IV. The trend of luxury and mass consumption in the future 

How to maintain the growth rate of those lower-income population has become the policy focus. This would benefit mass consumption products. Luxury consumption reached peak levels in 1995 in Japan when it took 68% market share worldwide. After that consumers became more rational and consumed no-brand goods. What happened in Japan might give some clues about luxury consumption trend in China in the future.

V. Market summary

A share fell sharply while HK stocks rose slightly.Consumption stocks rose while cyclical stocks fell across the board. The US markets were mixed with 10-year treasury yield rising.

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