壹 限电将会导致中国经济增速下降

       中国的限电将会导致3、4季度经济增速明显回落。摩根士丹利发表报告表示，若中国持续因限电带来限产，将令第四季GDP增长减少1个百分点，中央或需要作政策微调和更有系统地减排。该行预计，减排将令9至12月的粗钢产量按年减少9%，同时令7%的铝产能停顿，全国29%的水泥生产受到影响，预计纸和玻璃将会是接下来两个生产受到影响的行业。对基建项目的阻碍，将削弱第四季的逆周期宽松措施的效用。

       贰 为了碳减排

       在9月至少有5个省实施限电，令生产突然停顿，主要原因是中国减少碳排放的倡议，不过适逢疫情后出口带动工业扩张，大部分省份达成减排目标的进度落后，因而采用运动式减碳，以达到减排目标。该行说，对煤开采限制及水力发电不足，也导致供电不足。国内的一些研究机构也预计中国3季度经济增速有可能回落到5%以下，而4季度由于面临去年的高基数很可能会回落到4%左右。

       叁 美国债务上限

      与此同时，美国的经济也面临下行风险。美国经济增速在3季度可能到达环比高点之后将会下行。但是，两党在债务上限问题上如果无法顺利达成协议，则美国政府有可能会面临关门的风险。2013年，美国政府因债务上限问题导致关门造成80万政府雇员临时失业。这对美国经济也将会产生负面影响。美国财政部长耶伦周二警告议员们必需在10月18日前提高债务上限，否则美国将会面临危机。

       肆 美债利率上涨

       A股和港股上涨。A股周期股基本企稳，而消费板块在周一大涨后回调。港股科技股涨势如虹，有媒体报道海外机构过去三个月都在抄底科技股。美国10年期国债收益率上涨到1.567%，达到7月以来的新高。美元指数也上涨到去年11月以来的高点。受美债收益率上行影响，美股全线下跌，科技股领跌。从2013年的缩减债券购买看，国债收益率通常在美联储明示要进行债券购买计划后会上涨，通常涨到开始实施的时候。据此，国债收益率有可能会持续上涨到今年年底。高估值的股票恐面临估值回调的压力。

      伍 幅度可能有限

     但国债收益率上涨幅度可能是有限的。我们在《美联储能退出宽松货币政策吗？》中曾经分析过，因美国巨额债务负担，国债收益率上行最大不会超过2%。另外，美股调整对A股和港股的冲击也应该是可控的，原因就是A股估值不高，港股的估值在历史的低位。年初至今A股和港股都没有跟随美股大幅上涨，港股反而是大幅回落。具体可参见美股如调整对A股影响有多大？

I. China's economy might slow down more than expected in 2H2021 

China’s economic growth might face some head wind in 3Q and 4Q this year due to power shortage. Morgan Stanley pointed out in a recent report that production cut due to power shortage could cost 1 percentage point of GDP growth rate in 4Q this year. It is necessary for governments to adjust policies or cut carbon emission in a more systematic way. 

II. Due to carbon emission

Morgan Stanley estimated that from September to December due to the efforts to cut carbon emission raw steel production volume would fall 9% year-on-year. 7% aluminum production capacity would become idle and 29% of cement production capacity would be affected negatively. Paper and glass production would be affected very soon. Morgan Stanley believed that the infrastructure investment, which is taken as an anti-cycle tool when economy is going down, would not go smoothly due to the shortage of raw materials and power. In September there were at least five provinces that limited power supply. The reason is that China has implemented energy consumption quota. Yet due to the booming export demand some provinces have been lagging far behind the required energy consumption quota. With the year-end in sight they had to cut power supply to satisfy the requirement. Some analysts in China also pointed out that China’s economic growth in 3Q might fall below 5% and 4Q might be around 4%. 

III. Debt ceiling 

At the same time the US economy would reach its peak levels in 3Q this year and slow down from 4Q. Moreover, the debt ceiling might force governments to shut down temporarily. In 2013, debt ceiling caused the governments to close down and 800,000 employees were unemployed for morethan 2 weeks. This would have a negative impact on the US economy.

IV. Treasury yield shot up

Both A share and HK market rose.A-share cyclical stocks stopped falling while liquor stocks corrected after the rally on Monday. HK tech stocks rallied. The US stocks fell sharply as 10-year treasury yield went up to 1.53%. Tech stocks fell the most. The US dollar index rose above 93, the first time from November last year. 

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