壹 A股大跌
A股周三受到欧美股市调整影响大幅下跌,申万28个行业中只有农林牧渔、银行和家用电器板块上涨,其余25个行业下跌。其中采掘、钢铁、国防军工、有色金属、化工等前期热门板块跌幅较大。市场大跌会导致投资者情绪不高,很多投资者“芯锂苦”。恭喜你,在这一点上你与股神是相同的。
贰 股神遭遇股市大跌
彼得·林奇,曾经执掌富达麦哲伦基金长达13年并且年复合收益率超过20%的股神,曾经在书中描写过股市大跌时他的心情。1987年10月19日美国股市大跌时,他正在英国度假。股市大跌导致麦哲伦基金当天下跌18%。麦哲伦基金当时的规模为100亿美金,一天就损失了接近20亿美金,相当于一个海上岛国一年的GDP。彼得·林奇写道:心如刀割的他根本分不清吃的是鳕鱼还是大虾。股市大跌导致他不仅食不甘味,而且无心游玩,最后提前结束度假返回办公室。
叁 反思
几年后他的反思是即使10月19日的行情让你对股市的走势感到惊恐不安,你也不必在这一天甚至在第二天把股票抛出,你可以逐步减持你的股票投资组合,从而最终能够获得比那些由于恐慌将股票全部抛出的投资人更高的投资回报。因为从11月份开始股市就稳步上扬,到1988年6月,市场已经反弹了400多点,也就是说涨幅超过了23%。
肆 投资优秀的公司
从这次大跌的经历中,彼得·林奇总结出3点经验或教训:①不要让烦心之事毁掉一个很好的投资组合;②不要让烦心之事毁掉一次愉快的度假;③当你的投资组合中现金比重很小时千万不要出国旅游。他指出投资最重要的是如何寻找到优秀的公司。不管某一天股市下跌508点还是108点,最终优秀的公司将会胜利,而普通公司将会失败,投资于这两类完全不同的公司的投资者也将会相应得到完全不同的回报。股市大跌其实是好事,让投资人有机会以打折的价格购买优秀的公司。
伍 港股韧性较好
港股在金融地产带领下上涨,而原材料和能源板块大跌。港股国企指数年初至今下跌18%,恒生指数下跌8%,二者均为主要市场中表现最差的指数。但另一方面对外部冲击的韧性也相对较强。美股道指上涨,而科技股继续下跌。美国债收益率有所回落。美国众议院通过了债务上限法案,但因共和党明确表示不支持债务上限,因此,该法案将无法通过参议院。
I. A-share fell sharply on Wednesday
A-share fell sharply on Wednesday. Apart from bank, farming and fishery and home appliance that rose, the remaining 25 sectors fell.Energy, mining, iron and steel, and petrochemical sectors fell the most. Investors felt the pain from losing money. Well, your feeling is the same with the legendary investor Peter Lynch.
II. The legendary investor in 1987 market crash
Peter Lynch ran Megellan Fund in Fidelity for 13 years and achieved an compound annual return above 20%. He wrote in one of his books about what he experienced when the stock market crashed on Oct. 19th 1987. The Megellan Fund’s AUM was US$ 10 billion and lost 18% on that day due to the market crash. Peter was on vacation in the UK. The big fall of the stock market made him have no appetite for food and torn his heart. He concluded his vacation earlier and went back to the office.
III. Reflections
Several years later he reflected that one should not sell stocks on the panic day or the day after. He or she should cut exposure gradually and would get much better prices than on the panic day. In fact the stock market began to rise in November and went up 23% by June 1988.
IV. Lessons learned
He then shared three lessons from this. The first is to maintain your portfolio as it is despite the market crash. The second is to enjoy overseas trip. The third is not to travel overseas when one’s portfolio only has a small percentage of cash. In the end he pointed out that investment is to look for excellent companies. As long as you invest in an excellent company you will get good returns, no matter how much market could drop. The market crash offers big discount to excellent companies. So treasure every market crash.
V. HK market was resilient
HK markets rose. Financial and property sectors rose the most while energy and raw material sector fell the most. Both Hang Seng Index and China Enterprises Index returned negatively year-to-date. This in fact provides buffer when facing the external shocks. The US stocks were mixed with defensive stocks rising and tech stocks continuing slide. 10-year treasury yield took a pause. The House of Congress passed raising debt ceiling act. Yet as the Republicans would not support raising debt ceiling the act would be doomed in Senate.
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