壹 A股三季报

      首先是中美三季报的情况。7-9月份，政策频出。有一些行业和板块因为突发政策而造成较大冲击，因此，三季报应该不会有较好的表现。但市场总是“几家欢乐几家愁”，也有一些行业增长较快，上市公司业绩增速会保持较快增长。不过，也要考虑因为市场已经计入了较高业绩增速，因此，季报出来反而成为利好出尽股价下跌的触发点。我们看到个别新能源上市公司上周就遭遇了这种“利好出尽”的冲击。另外，9月中下旬开始的限电举措对部分上市公司的业绩也会有影响。

      贰 三季报盈利增速预计下行

      今年一季度A股上市公司归母净利润同比增幅为58.70%，二季度回落至41.75%；一季度和二季度净利润环比增幅分别为59.28%和9.66%。二季度的盈利增长主要是周期和成长板块贡献的。预计三季度利润同比和环比增速都将回落。

      叁 美股三季报

      根据FactSet的数据，二季度S&P500公司的利润同比增长89.3%，是2009年Q4以来的最大增速。其中87%的公司盈利超预期，创2008年以来新高。美股三季度盈利将从二季度创纪录的水平下滑7.4%，成为历史上盈利第二好的季度；预计2021年全年的美股盈利将较2020年增长62.0%，达到创纪录水平。本周开始，美股市场将迎来三季报发布的密集期，达美航空、摩根大通、贝莱德、美国银行、花旗集团、摩根士丹利等82家美股上市公司将发布三季报。

       肆 政策

      对政策而言，中美方向正好相反。中国市场投资人期待的是央行10月份或至少四季度能够降准降息；而美国则会收紧流动性，最晚在11月份宣布缩减债券购买规模，12月份开始实行。中美金融周期逆向而行，对市场的影响如何有待观察。近期，各种涨价也是市场关注的焦点。我们一直认为通胀是可持续的，具体可参见你在哪个阵营？、通胀涨幅回落可能是暂时的及这可能是一个不一样的超级周期。但由于中国猪肉价格仍处在低位，总体消费价格指数的上涨还不明显。而美国的消费领域通胀有可能会维持在较高水平。

      伍 市场综述

     上周五A股和港股均上涨。美国9月非农就业数据低于预期，但应不会影响缩减债券购买规模进程。

I.  The 3rd quarter results of A-share 

The first major focus of the market would be the upcoming 3rd quarter results of both A-share and the US listed companies. As policies targeted some sectors were brought up in July, these sectors might not deliver good results.In contrast some sectors enjoy fast growth companies in these sectors are expected to deliver strong earnings growth in 3rd quarter. Yet,there is also the risk that market would sell on good news and these companies might see their stock prices correct sharply after earnings release. It did happen to some companies last week. In 1Q2021 and 2Q2021 A-share earnings grew at 58.7% and 41.75% year-on-year respectively and 59.28% and 9.66% quarter-on-quarter. The 3rd quarter earnings might come down both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 

II. The 3rd quarter results of the US companies

The US companies would release 3rd quarter results starting this week. According to FactSet, the 2nd quarter earnings of the US listed companies grew 89.3% year-on-year, the best quarter from 4Q2009. 87% of the listed companies beat market expectation. The 3rd quarter earnings are expected to slow 7.4% quarter-on-quarter from 2rd quarter record levels. The earnings of the US listed companies are expected to grow 62% in 2021, which is unprecedentedly high in history. 82 companies would release results this week in the US including JP Morgan and Delta Airline, etc. 

III. Monetary policies 

The monetary policies of China and the US are different. Market expects that PBOC would cut reserve ratio for banks in October or 4th quarter. But Fed is expected to announce taper in November and execute taper in Dec. What A-share and the US stock market would perform as Sino-US monetary policies are divergent is still uncertain. Also another focus is on the price increases of upstream raw materials. We discussed this in “Which side do you take你在哪个阵营？?”.Inflation is to be here for some time. For China CPI might still at relatively low levels due to that swine prices are low. The US CPI might be maintained at high levels.

IV. Taper is to come soon

The non-farm payroll data in September of the US came in lower than expected. Yet this would not delay taper, which is expected to be announced in November and executed in December. 

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