壹 2008年金融危机肇始于次贷危机

      2008年美国的房地产市场发生次贷危机继而传导到全球，引发全球金融危机。根据桥水公司的创始人达利奥的分析，美国房地产市场在2005年就呈现出泡沫的特征。具体表现为：资产价格偏高；市场预期目前的高价会继续快速上行；普遍存在看涨情绪；利用高杠杆融资买入资产；卖家提前很长时间买入，旨在投机或应对未来价格上涨的影响；新买家进入市场；货币宽松政策进一步助长泡沫，而收紧货币政策会刺破泡沫。达利欧还指出影子银行也是泡沫时期的一个共同特征。在美国的房地产次贷危机中，影子银行也发挥了作用。影子银行使各方都受益，因为监管缺位降低了贷款成本，降低了借款利率和还款难度，投资者的回报也能增加。但影子银行通常会导致危机。

      贰 人们对危机认识不足

      2007年次贷危机刚刚发生时并没有被认为是很严重的危机。时任美联储主席伯南克在2007年3月28日的国会听证会上表示：次贷市场问题对整个经济和金融市场的影响似乎可以得到控制。2007年10月，美国道琼斯指数创出了历史新高14198点，随后就因为美国银行业绩受到次贷坏账计提的减值影响而股市大跌。谁也不曾料到，一年之后，股市下跌了50%以上。达利奥也坦言尽管他们进行了深入调研，考察了各类市场（特别是衍生品市场）参与者的持仓情况。但他们得出的结论是没有人能够掌握持仓的全部情况。很多风险都是未知的应该是2008年次贷危机最终演进成全球金融危机的一个深层次原因。

      叁 危机无法预防

      从达利奥的描述中，我们可以看到身处危机之中其实很难推断危机的进程和危机影响的幅度，无论是普通的市场参与者还是美联储的高官，亦或是达利奥这样的有先见知名的投资人。20世纪以来，危机总是隔一段时间来过一次。但人们除了应对，似乎没有任何能够避免危机发生的办法。所有危机背后都有人们急于逐利的心理，怕失去发财机会的恐惧以及全然不考虑风险的盲目乐观的情绪。如果真有能够避免危机发生的方法，那就是遏制人性的贪婪。这显然是无法做到的。

      肆 油价上涨压抑股市

      A股下跌，港股上涨。油价上涨令市场担忧经济复苏受阻，美股下跌。

I. 2008 Global Financial Crises  

Ray Dalio, the founder of the famous hedge fund Bridgewater, analyzed 2008 global financial crises in his popular book “A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises”. The crises were originated from property bubbles, which actually began from 2005. According to Dalio the US property market had typical bubble characteristics,which included high-rocket high asset prices, market expectation that high prices could still go higher, bullish sentiment, high leverage, new entrants to the market, and easing monetary policy that would boost bubbles while stringent monetary policy would burst bubbles. Moreover, shadow banking also played a role in the subprime crises. Due to lacking supervision measures, shadow banking provided lower cost loans to borrowers and those invested in shadow banking could get higher return. But shadow banking can lead to crises.  

II. Few people can fully understand the crises

Few people knew that subprime crises could lead to global financial crises. On March 28th,2007 when the Fed chairman Bernanke made testimony before the Congress he said that the negative impact that subprime issues had on the overall economy and financial markets were well under control. Dalio had tried to collect data on risk exposures of market participants but in vain. He concluded that nobody could have the whole picture of the risk exposure. In October 2007 DOW reached the highest point in history at 14810 and then saw itself to be nearly halved in one year. 

III. Lessons that can not be learned

In summary nobody, whether he is the highest-ranked official or common investor, can predict how far and how deep a crisis could go. While we experienced one crisis after another since the beginning of last century, we might have learned how to deal with it rather than how to prevent it from happening.Behind every crisis are those factors including the eagerness to be on board,the horror that might miss a fortune and the blind optimism. If there is a way to prevent crises, it should make people not become greedy. But there is really no way to accomplish that goal.

IV. High oil prices dented stock markets 

A-share fell while HK stocks rallied. The US stocks fell due to the rising oil prices. 

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