壹 上世纪的“蔡经理”

      无论是约翰·聂夫还是彼得·林奇，在他们各自的书中都无一例外的提到一个蔡经理。蔡经理全名叫做杰拉德·蔡（Gerald Tsai），是上世纪50-60年代富达基金著名的基金经理，当时是家喻户晓的一个名人。聂夫是与其同时代的基金经理。当彼得·林奇在70年代中期加入富达基金的时候，他的母亲就是因为蔡经理而听说过富达基金，可见蔡经理在美国投资者的影响力。

      贰 蔡经理钟爱题材股

      在其《约翰·聂夫论投资》一书中，聂夫写道：蔡经理买进的都是题材股，这些题材股通常是小公司。在聂夫看来，很多小公司只是因为投资人看好未来的盈利前景而导致股价上涨，是“博傻投资理论”发挥号令。聂夫因此称蔡管理的基金是“肾上腺素”支配的基金。1965-1967年三年的时间里，蔡管理的基金年复合收益率50%，这是令人瞠目结舌的业绩。而聂夫坚持不参与题材股的炒作，其所管理的基金与蔡管理的狂飙基金的收益差距很大，因而被人批评为食古不化的老顽固和对市场不敏感。

      叁 熊市业绩不佳

      1968年美国股市结束了10年牛市，开始走入低迷。蔡经理的基金业绩也随即低迷。而聂夫因为做了正确的事，在1968年和1969年都业绩表现出色。蔡从富达基金出来自立门户后，所管理的曼哈顿基金在1968-1969年遭遇熊市，表现不佳，净值最多下跌了55%，基金管理规模也从7亿美金下降到5400万美元。而聂夫管理温莎基金长达31年，年复合收益率为13.7%。

      肆 人人都爱蔡经理

      为什么追求题材股的基金经理会对大众产生这么大的影响力呢？因为赚快钱更能唤起大众的情绪，而如聂夫一样坚守风险收益比的基金让投资人觉得乏味。虽然长期看，聂夫的基金存活的时间要比蔡经理的长很多，但是这不妨碍人们去追逐蔡经理为他们在短期内赚块钱。通过投资赚钱很容易吗？芒格曾经说过：投资从来不是一件容易的事。

      伍 主要市场均下跌

      A股和港股大幅下跌，美股小幅下跌。美国9月份消费者价格指数周三公布，同时摩根大通和达尔塔航空公布3季报。

I. Tsai in the 1960s 

Both John Neff and Peter Lynch mentioned a famous fund manager called Tsai, whose full name is Gerald Tsai. Tsai was a fund manager with Fidelity in the 1950-60s and was a household name at that time. Actually when Peter Lynch began his career in Fidelity in the mid-1970s, his mother knew Fidelity because Tsai ever worked in this firm. 

II. Tsai loved small companies 

Tsai mainly bought small companies with promising prospects, i.e. theme stocks. But these stocks might have this or that kind of problems that would not guarantee a long-term earnings growth potential. Neff hence called his funds controlled by adrenaline. From 1965 to 1967 Tsai achieved 50% return for each of these three years, which was really impressive and outstanding. Neff did not chase those small stocks and his fund’s performance was far lagged behind that of Tsai. He was therefore criticized as being stubborn and having no nerve for the market. 

III. Tsai did not perform well in bear market

Yet from 1968 the US concluded 10-year bull market goal and turned into bear market. Tsai left Fidelity and set up his own fund called Manhattan Fund. The fund suffered 55% loss at the worst time and the AUM shrank from initial US$ 700 million to 54 million. Neff’s fund performed well during the bear market. He managed his fund called Windsor Fund for 31 years and achieved annual compound return of 13.7%. 

IV. Reasons that everybody loves Tsai 

So why investors only remember Tsai rather than Neff? The reason is that everyone likes those who can make money in a fast way rather than those who make money in a steady way. Even if everyone knows that fund managers such as Neff can make money for them for a longer period of time, they can’t help chasing those fund managers like Tsai with the expectation that these fund managers can make big money in a short period of time. Well, Munger ever said: investment is never easy.

V. Market sentiment is low worldwide  

Both A-share and HK stocks fell sharply while the US stocks fell slightly.The US September CPI is to be released on Wednesday. Also JP Morgan and Delta Airline will report 3rd quarter earnings on Wednesday.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。