壹 滞涨到衰退

      我国经济在从滞涨阶段走向衰退阶段。根据乔治·达格尼诺在《驾驭周期》一书中的总结，滞涨和衰退分别是经济的第三和第四阶段；而第一和第二阶段分别是复苏和繁荣阶段。滞涨阶段的特点包括：货币供给增速持续下降；货币走势疲软；股票市场萎靡不振；经济增速放缓，最终位于长期潜在增长率之下；企业利润增长见顶；大宗商品价格见顶；短期和长期利率见顶；通胀持续上涨后开始下降。而到了衰退阶段，经济增速已经低于长期潜在增速，并且伴随着紧缩的货币政策和持续减少的货币供给，以及企业不断地削减成本，经济持续疲软。但是，由于成本下降，企业的边际利润率开始好转。衰退期的特征包括：货币供给增速持续下降，但只要短期利率见顶，货币供给就会增加；货币先抑后扬；股票市场虽然低迷，但是会逐渐向好；经济持续下行。

      贰 衰退期债券和股票投资都有机会

      根据乔治，滞涨期不适合投资金融工具，而适合投资硬资产，包括能源和黄金类股票、大宗商品、房地产和艺术品等。而衰退期非常重要，因为之前所有下跌的指标在这个阶段都会反转，包括通胀见顶回落、短期利率和债券收益率持续下行，此时债券的投资机会开始显现。而低通货膨胀率和低债券收益率使得股票具有投资价值。最终，当央行开始释放流动性之后，股票市场迎来进一步的上扬，经济周期也进入第一阶段—复苏期。

      叁 等待隧道尽头的光

      我国经济在今年3月份达到顶点之后，开始下行，经济进入第三阶段—滞涨期。近几个月，利率水平持续走低，预期经济进入衰退期，而刚刚公布的九月份的货币供应量数据看，社融存量增速仍在下行，但是广义货币的增速已经触底回升，叠加近期政策表态，预示经济有可能进入了第四阶段。投资者在这一阶段无需悲观，要为即将到来的股市上涨做好准备。在隧道尽头的光，一定是政策宽松的信号发出的。

      肆 市场综述

      A股探底回升。美国9月份的消费者价格指数同比涨幅均超预期，但美国国债收益率回落，科技股上涨。

I. From stagflation to depression  

China’s economy is shifting from stagflation to depression. According to George Dagnino, there are four stages in economy. They are recovery, prosperity, stagflation and depression. The characteristics in stagflation stage include that money supply slows down, a weak currency, economy slows down and would go below potential growth rate, profit growth rate slows down, interest rate goes down and commodity prices reach peak levels. And when it comes to depression stage, the economy slows down further and remains at a low level due to that enterprises cut costs and monetary policies remain stringent. But with the cost coming down the marginal profitability of enterprise would turn positive. In summary the characteristics of depression stage include that economy is continuously weak and money supply still remains at low levels. But once interest rate comes down money supply would go up. Stock market performs poorly in depression stage. But when money supply comes up, it would perform well. 

      II. Bond and stocks would perform in depression stage 

According to George, in stagflation stage one should not invest in any financial products. Rather he or she should invest in hard assets such as commodity, gold, property and arts,etc. Depression stage is very important as all of the leading indicators would reverse. The interest rate would peak out as well as inflation. Bond is a good investment in depression. And with the falling interest rate and bond yields stocks also offer investment value. Eventually central banks would inject liquidity into the financial markets. Stock markets would go up further. 

      III. The light at the end of the tunnel 

In the case of China’s economy it peaked in March this year and entered stagflation period. Recently, we noticed that interest rate came down. Meanwhile broad money supply (M2) in September also bottomed out. The most important signal is when PBOC would cut reserve ratio for commercial banks. This would mean that economy would enter the first stage and stock markets would rise. So remain patient for the stocks.

      IV. Market summary

A-share bottomed out.The US September CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, higher than expected. But treasury yield fell and tech stocks rallied. 

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